Free Picks for Monday, July 31st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
GIANTS AT ATHLETICS
PLAY: ATHLETICS -1
There’s not much hesitation when it comes to looking to looking at a Giants fade when the team is on the road. San Francisco is an abysmal 18-36 in away games. This contrasts rather unfavorably with Oakland’s home ledger as the A’s have been pretty respectable in their games as hosts.
The visitors will send shopworn Matt Cain to the mound tonight. That means the upper hand on paper for Oakland rookie Paul Blackburn, who has been a pleasant surprise for the Athletics. One note of caution to be sure, and that’s the Oakland bullpen, which is pretty awful at this point.
But the Giants aren’t exactly lights out with their pen and the team might be a bit weary, both physically and mentally, following a draining extra inning loss to the rival Dodgers on Sunday night.
I see Oakland with the advantage here. But the money line is pretty substantial, so what I’d recommend here is a split ticket between with half the bet on Oakland runs line. That means less liability of the A’s lose the game, a flat push if they win by one, but a nicer payoff if Oakland can win by two or more.
Don Anthony
Giants vs. Athletics
Play: Athletics -146
When I saw the A's laying nearly a buck fifty, I had to look more into the game. Well the A's are big favorites for a reason here folks and we'll back them for 1% tonight.
The Giants are coming off playing a weekend series on the road, against their hated rivals. Their showcase Sunday Night game also went into extra innings, where they lost in devastating fashion. I can definitely see the Giants lacking motivation for this game. San Francisco also sends pitching machine, Matt Cain to the bump. The Giants are 3-8 in Cain's last 11 starts and have gone 10-30 facing a team with a losing record when Cain starts.
Although the Athletics are in a down year, this team has played surprisingly well at home, going 29-24. They have also taken 13 of the last 18 meetings here and 4 straight against Matt Cain.
Darryl Tucholski
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals -128
Gio Gonzalez is in the midst of a career year, all of the experts are predicting he falls at some point. it likely wont happen today. The Marlins are 25-27 at home, and Urena has struggled to the tune of 11 ER in his last 14 IP. With 9 walks to boot - The Nats should feast
Ben Burns
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Play: Over 10½
Both of these starting pitchers have seen better days. Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.43 ERA) gave up two runs off three hits and four walks while striking out four over five frames in an eventual no-decision against the A’s on Wednesday. Estrada though has been a train-wreck over the last month, posting a 7.64 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and 30:30 K:BB over his last 33 innings of work (note that he’s just 2-5 with a 5.91 ERA on the road this year.) James Shields (2-3, 5.86) gave up five runs off five hits and three walks while striking out four over four innings in a setback to the Cubs on Wednesday. Shields looked horrible coming into that start as well, having allowed 16 runs over his previous 15 innings of work (is just 2-3 with a 5.84 ERA at home as well this season.) Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that we’ll have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Play: Over 10½
Edges - Blue Jays: Estrada 7.93 ERA with 1.91 WHIP last 7 overall starts, and 11 BBs with 12 Ks last three starts… White Sox: Shields 7.94 ERA with 1.91 WHIP last 7 overall starts, with 9 BBs and 8 Ks last three starts. With both pitchers in rotten current form, look for a well-lit scoreboard tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game.
Art Aronson
Rays vs. Astros
Play: Under 9
A couple of capable starters collide on Monday night and all signs point to a classic “duel.”
Alex Cobb: He’s 9-6 with a 3.46 ERA. Cobb gave up one run off four hits and one walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. Cobb has now posted eight quality starts out of his last nine trips to the hill, posting a tiny 2.24 ERA and 38 K’s over his last 64.1 innings of work (is 6-3 with a 3.40 ERA in all “night” games.)
Charlie Morton: He’s 8-4 with a 3.83 ERA. Morton most recently went seven scoreless against the Phillies on Tuesday, scattering three hits while striking out nine. Morton threw 71 of his 105 pitches for strikes and has posted a solid 3.28 ERA and 27:8 K:BB ratio over his last 24.1 innings of work (is 5-2 with a 3.69 ERA at home and 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA in all night contests.)
The bottom line: For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. All signs point to these pitchers dueling into the latter frames.
Sean Murphy
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -113
The Mariners crawled back to the .500 mark with yesterday's blowout win over the Mets. I'm not sure we'll see them advance past that mark on Monday night in Arlington, however, even with King Felix on the mound.
Despite Hernandez's positive reputation, the fact is he's managed only five wins against four losses this season. That's not to mention a less than stellar 4.08 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He's lasted at least six innings only once in his last three starts.
Cole Hamels will take the ball for Texas. While he's not the pitcher he once was, he's still getting the job done for the Rangers with a 5-1 record, 3.97 ERA and impressive 1.12 WHIP. Hamels has been working deep into ball games lately, going at least six innings in four of his last five starts.
Despite sitting behind a number of teams in the race, an A.L. Wild Card spot is still not out of the question for the Rangers. After a tough weekend against Baltimore I look for them to bounce back here.
Tony Karpinski
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Braves -107
Mike Foltynewicz established himself as Atlanta’s ace during the early portion of this season and he has strengthened that distinction as he has produced 2.95 ERA over his past seven starts. He is averaging 8K's per start in his last 3 and we'll back him on Monday afternoon to get us the early cash.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto vs. Chicago
Play: Toronto -160
The Jays are road warriors here as road favorites at -140 or more that are off a home win scoring 10+ runs vs an opponent off a home dog win are winning over 85% long term. Toronto has won 3 of 4 as a road favorite if they won at home the day before. The Whitesox are off a rare win as they are 5-18 of late and 1-9 at home. Both Pitchers Estrada and Shields have struggled but Shields has been particularly dismal with a 8.16 Era in his last 3 starts.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -113
Adrian Beltre became the 31st player in major-league history to reach 3,000 hits on Sunday but the Rangers have dropped two of three to both the Marlins and the Orioles in the first six games of the team's nine-game homestand. Texas has been shut out in two of the losses and has given up a total of 32 runs in the other two defeats. The 50-54 Rangers are tied with the Orioles, 5 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot in a very crowed field. The 53-53 Mariners won four of their final six contests to cap a 5-5 homestand and are very much a part of the crowded AL wild card group, 3 1/2 games back of the final spot.
Felix Hernandez (5-4 & 4.08 ERA) and Cole Hamels (5-1 & 3.97 ERA) square off in the first game of this series in a matchup of two "big-name" pitchers. Fernandez escaped with a no-decision Tuesday against Boston in one of his worst efforts since April, as he yielded four runs over 5 2/3 innings (Seattle did win, 6-5). The 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner is 3-2 with a 3.67 ERA in seven starts (Seattle is 4-3) since returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list due to shoulder bursitis. He has worked at least six innings five times in that span
Hamels remained unbeaten at home despite an uneven performance Tuesday against Miami, giving up four runs in six innings (Texas won 10-4), one start after surrendering seven runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 9-7 loss at Baltimore. He's 5-3 with a 5.12 ERA in 11 career starts vs Seattle (teams are 7-4).
Hernanadez has not pitched like a 'King' in his career vs Texas, as this marks his 52nd career start against Texas. He is 19-23 with a 3.89 ERA vs the Rangers (Seattle is 22-29). Hamels has struggled on the road in 2017 (5.00 ERA in six starts / team is 2-4) but he's 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at Rangers Ballpark in five home starts (Texas is 4-1). I'll back Hamels and Texas.
Brandon Shively
Washington vs. Miami
Pick: Miami +124
The Miami Marlins have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Gio Gonzalez has managed to outperform his FIP and xFIP all year and I expect regression on the way for him. The Marlins have had success against Gonzalez in the past as well. The Marlins hitters have combined to have a .366 OBP against him in 175 plate appearances.
The Marlins are a tricky team, and the Nationals have plenty of flaws. Jose Urena has pitched pretty well of late, and I'll grab the Marlins as the home underdog against a lefty they have hit well in the past.
Will Rogers
Tampa Bay vs. Houston
Pick: Houston -155
The set-up: The Houston Astros have been the AL's best team almost the entire season so far but after Lance McCullers gave up five runs on Sunday (Houston has lost McCullers' last five starts with him posting an 8.63 ERA) and the bullpen was pounded for eight more over three innings of a 13-1 loss at Detroit, the Astros very may well be looking to pick up another starting pitcher before Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline. After all, the Astros have dropped three of their last four contests and given up a total of 32 runs in that stretch. Houston welcomes Tampa Bay to town for a three-game series starting tonight. The Rays have won just three of their last 11 contests and now trail the first-place Yankees by 3 ½ games in the AL East while sitting 2 ½ behind Kansas City for the second wild card.
The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (9-6 & 3.46 ERA), Tampa Bay's best pitcher of late, takes the mound for the Rays and Charlie Morton (8-4, 3.83) goes for the Astros. Cobb has gone 3-0 in his last four starts (Rays are 3-1), allowing five runs on 17 hits over 30 1/3 innings (1.48 ERA). Going back further, Cobb has produced eight quality starts over his past nine appearances, logging 64 1/3 innings while compiling a 5-1 record and a 2.24 ERA during that workhorse stretch (Rays are 6-3). Cobb lost to the Astros while allowing four runs over six innings on April 21 to fall to 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in two career outings against them. Morton is headed to what could be his best season in the majors. He has lasted at least six in just half of his 14 starts but has registered 92 strikeouts over 82 1/3 innings, with Houston going 9-5 in his starts. Morton gave up five runs over five innings in a 6-3 loss at Tampa Bay on April 22 and is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in his career vs. the Rays.
The pick: Cobb comes in a a roll but as noted, Morton may just be having his best-ever season in "the bigs." The Rays are floundering right now and I expect the Astros to rebound off yesterday's 13-1 'embarrassment.'
Jim Feist
Mariners at Rangers
Pick: Under
Seattle is 30-12-1 under the total against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Seattle has Felix Hernandez on the mound, with a 64-18 strikeout to walk ratio in 68 innings. The Under is 18-8-1 when Hernandez starts with 5 days of rest. Texas is on a 6-2-1 run under the total at home. Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.97 ERA) has been throwing well and has a 2.88 ERA at home. And the Under is 7-3 when King Felix faces the Rangers.
*Dr H*
Monday
Mariners +117