*basewinner*
Official Plays [MON July 31]:
.67* 911 SEA +122
.67* 915 TOR -154
.67* 917 SFG +137
John Fisher
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals -127
This is an interesting match up. A flame thrower SP Urena versus an off speed junky SP Gonzalez that loves to use his curveball as his out pitch. Vegas is respecting the Marlins at home but unbelieve this line is off 20 pts ..should be -145. Gonzalez is the third wheel behind Max and Steve. However, he has really had a career year so far. I love the way he dances the ball around the plate to keep hitters off. Stanton and Ozuna will sitting on his curve ball so look for him to pitch around those two guys. SP Urena has gone down hill a little since the All Star break. His ERA in those three games is 7.0 era. He also has seen his walk out count go up 3 a game since the break. Take Nationals with nice value line here.
Dave Essler
Tampa Bay at Houston
Play: Tampa Bay +1.5
This might be the only play - I do lean A's and over (but missed 9) and in fact wanted the Phillies but that discretion was the better part of valor after a couple of meltdowns over the weekend. Anyhow, the Rays have hit Morton hard, and he's also throwing after having three straight 100+ pitch games. The Astros bullpen is a mess - with an 8.89 ERA over the last week. And of course no Correa or Springer. McCann is 8-15 off of Cobb, so there's that, but Houston is a prohibitive favorite for a reason. Cobb has handled Houston well, the Ray's pen is in reasonable shape, so unless Houston has "one of those innings" the Rays may well just win.
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland at Boston
Pick: Cleveland
The Bosox have seen their lead in the AL East melt away, and not sure putting Doug Fister on the mound tonight vs. the Indians is going to help matters. Fister has been saddled with losses in five of his seven appearances (only four of thsoe as a starter) with the Sox and has a 7.46 ERA. Meanwhile, the Indians have won 9 of 10, and before tonight's starter Mike Clevinger cruised a bit too early when staked to a 7-0 lead last Tuesday vs. the Angels, he had allowed 2 runs over 24 IP in his previous four starts.
Rocketman
San Francisco @ Oakland
Play: Oakland -137
The San Francisco Giants travel to Oakland to take on the A's on Monday night. San Francisco is 40-66 SU overall this year while Oakland comes in with a 46-59 SU overall record on the season. Matt Cain is 3-9 with a 5.38 ERA overall this year, 0-6 with an 8.14 ERA on the road this season and 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA his last 3 starts. He has 22 strikeouts compared to 21 walks on the road this season. Paul Blackburn is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA overall this year, 2.25 ERA at home this season and a 3.44 ERA his last 3 starts. San Francisco is scoring only 3.9 runs per game overall this year and 3.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall. San Francisco is allowing 5.6 runs per game on the road this year. San Francisco is 14-31 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight!
Brandon Lee
Tampa Bay at Houston
Play: Tampa Bay +145
Tampa Bay is worth a look here. The Rays are a massive road dog against the Astros on Monday, but figure to have a decent shot at winning this one with the red-hot Alex Cobb on the mound. Cobb owns a 1.99 ERA and 0.838 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's pitched at least 7 innings and allowed 3 or fewer runs (1 or less 3 times) in 4 straight starts. I'll take my chances here with Tampa Bay, as the Astros are coming off a long road trip that saw them lose the final 2 games, including a 12-run loss on Sunday.
John Martin
Tigers vs. Yankees
Play: Tigers +217
The Detroit Tigers are worth a look today as better than 2-to-1 dogs against the New York Yankees. The Tigers' best starter all season has been Michael Fulmer, and he gets the ball tonight. Fulmer is 10-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 20 starts, and 4-5 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine road starts. His numbers are very comparable to those of Luis Severino of the Yankees, but since Severino is 'hot' of late, he is getting mad love from the books and betting public. Fulmer pitched 6 shutout innings in his only previous start against the Yankees, a 4-1 victory in New York. Detroit is 14-3 off a win by 8 runs or more over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 10-3 in Fulmer's last 13 starts vs. AL East competition. The Yankees are 2-9 in Severino's last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Stephen Nover
Tigers vs. Yankees
Play: Tigers +1½
I admit I'm leery of the Tigers' bullpen especially with closer Justin Wilson, their most consistent reliever, traded now to the Cubs.
But there's way too much value to pass on the Tigers here. So I'm going to grab it - but with insurance - by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line.
The pitching matchup is Michael Fulmer versus Luis Severino.
This isn't a fade on Severino. How can it be when he's pitching his best ball allowing just one earned run in his past 27 innings. I will point out, though, the Yankees usually do better when Severino goes against a winning opponent. New York is 2-9 the past 11 times Severino has started versus sub .500 foes.
Fulmer isn't exactly a stiff. He won Rookie of the Year honors last season and is a steady 10-8 with a 3.35 ERA this season.He's made 17 quality starts this year and can be counted on for a solid performance.
The Tigers enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed the Astros, 13-1, on Sunday. Detroit has scored 23 runs in its last three games. If given 1 1/2 runs, they would be 11-4 in their last 15 games.
Aaron Judge is a big key for the Yankees. But he's batting only .158 since the All-Star break.
Dave Price
Rays / Astros Under 9
The Houston Astros' lineup is not nearly at full strength right now with SS Carlos Correa and CF George Springer both on the disabled list. That would help explain why the Astros have been held to just 10 runs in their last 4 games overall, or an average of 2.5 runs per game. Now they're up against Alex Cobb, who is 5-1 with a 2.24 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Rays won't have much success off of Charlie Morton, either. Morton is 8-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 14 starts and 92 K's in 82 1/3 innings this season. Houston is 18-5 to the UNDER after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Cobb's last 6 starts overall.
Ricky Tran
Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 10½
The Red Sox let one slip away on Sunday to the Royals so they'll be determined to start this series off well against the Indians and limit any errors on Monday. Despite BOS starter Doug Fister having a rough year, I doubt he's packing it in completely. These guys are professionals and there is a lot of pride at stake. Fister will surely be pitching with the intent to prove he belongs in the rotation and to please the home crowd fans.
On the other mound is CLE starter Mike Clevinger, who's thrown an impressive 32K's while only giving up 3 homers over his last 28 innings. Cleveland is starting to play good ball as the season winds down, so expect a low scoring grind it out type affair in this game.
Larry Wallace
Tigers vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1½
Severino this year is 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA. Fulmer in his last 3 starts is 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA. The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall. The Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games with Fulmer on the mound.
Andre Ramirez
Giants vs. Athletics
Play:Athletics -137
The Giants are struggling as they are buried in the basement of the NL West. Gray is a major trade chip who the A’s are content to hang on to if they can’t get what they want at the deadline. Cain is awful as he continues to struggle. One has to wonder how much longer Brian Sabean can justify paying him north of $20 million a season and how long Bruce Bochy can warrant sending him out there every five days. As long as Gray is still part of the mix for Oakland to make the start here, look for the A’s to take the win.
Jack Jones
Giants vs. Athletics
Play:Athletics -137
The San Francisco Giants are coming off a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. They way they lost all three games in blowing them late and losing by a combined four runs had to take a lot out of them. I don't look for them to be too interested in beating the A's in Game 1 of this series Monday.
The A's have been a surprisingly good home bet at 30-24 on the season. Paul Blackburn has been impressive in his five starts this year, going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.062 WHIP. He is clearly the better starter in this matchup tonight.
Matt Cain has been a disaster once again in 2017. He has gone 3-9 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.645 WHIP in 19 starts. While he has been respectable at home, he still hasn't won on the road, going 0-6 with an 8.14 ERA and 1.986 WHIP in nine road starts this season.
The Giants are 1-11 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better over the last two seasons. The Giants are 18-39 in their last 57 road games. San Francisco is 8-23 in Cain's last 31 road starts. Oakland is 7-1 in its last eight home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Giants are 5-13 in their last 18 meetings at Oakland, including 0-4 in Cain's last four road starts at Oakland.
Matt Fargo
Giants vs. Athletics
Play: Giants +128
We lost a tough one with the Twins yesterday as they blew a 5-0 lead and eventually lost to Oakland in 12 innings. That was the second straight win for the A's following a 2-9 stretch and now they come in favored by the biggest moneyline they have been favored by since July 5. This is an overreaction to the weekend as well as the result of the opposition that has added to the miserable season for the Giants. Going back, the Athletics are 1-8 in their last nine Interleague home games against teams with a losing record. They were swept in Los Angeles against the Dodgers with the final two games resulting in one-run losses including an extra-inning defeat last night which wasted a gem from Madison Bumgarner. We saw Bartolo Colon pitch a quality start yesterday against Oakland and Matt Cain is more than capable of the same result. He has allowed five runs in his two starts since the All-Star Break and while his road work has been poor, he faces the worst offense he has seen on the highway as Oakland is hitting an American League worst .237 while hitting an MLB worst .238 against right-handed pitching. He is 4-5 with a 2.34 ERA in 12 games, including 11 starts, against the A's. The question for Oakland is who is going to be starting and right now it is still Sonny Gray but that is likely to change by this afternoon as he is likely to be dealt. That means Paul Blackburn will make the start on his regular rest and he is coming off the best start of his young career. He allowed no runs on two hits in seven innings at Toronto and even though he has a 2.25 ERA, Oakland is just 2-3 in his starts as the bullpen has allowed 14 runs in his five starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +122
I think we are getting some great value here with the Marlins as a home dog against division rival Washington. The Nationals are comfortably sitting on top the NL East with a 13-game lead over the Marlins. That's important to note as Washington just played a double-header on Sunday against the Rockies, which puts them in ideal spot to come out flat in the first game on the road against an inferior team. Miami has all but thrown in the towel on the season, but I'm confident they show up to play here against the Nationals. The Marlins are also playing extremely well right now, having won 7 of their last 10.
Miami has faced Washignton starter Gio Gonzalez twice this season and was much better the second time around, which was also in Miami. Last time out on the road Gonzalez gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in a 0-7 loss to the Angels. Marlins starter Jose Urena has been up and down, but has thrown it better at home. If you are looking for a god with some bite on Monday,