Jesse Schule
Royals vs. Orioles
Play: Over 10
The Royals come into Game 1 of this series in Baltimore as winners of nine of their last 10. This win streak has helped them decide to become buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline. No such luck for the Orioles, who have won five of their last 10, and sit 6.5 games back of the first place Yankees in the AL East. Ubaldo Jimenez will toe the slab for Baltimore in Game 1, and he's been perhaps the worst pitcher in the major leagues this year. He's allowed 14 runs on 24 hits over 15 innings in three straight losses. He's 1-2 with an 8.42 ERA in eight appearances at home this season. Making matters worse, the Royals have really hit him hard, batting .273 with six home runs and 30 RBIs over a combined 231 at bats. The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy, who is having another solid season. Duffy allowed just two runs on eight hits, striking out six in seven innings in a win over Baltimore earlier this season. He's a solid 4-3 with a 4.09 ERA in 10 starts on the road this season. The Orioles have gone over the total in six of Jimenez's last seven home starts, and these two teams have gone over in seven of the last nine at Baltimore.
SPORTS WAGERS
BALTIMORE -108 over Kansas City
We could get into how hot the Royals are with 10 wins in their last 11 games but we won’t bore you with the details. Just know that Kansas City is the hottest team in baseball right now. We could also get into how Ubaldo Jimenez slides into the stay away from category due to his recent form (8.28 ERA in his last five games started) with disaster starts in 50% of his starts this season. It actually gets worse too. Allowing 34 earned runs in 36.1 home innings illustrates just how bad Ubaldo Jimenez is. It’s not just recently either. Jimenez has been horrible for three years and counting.
Danny Duffy improved his skills in July with more first-pitch strikes (69%) and fewer walks, which have contributed to three solid starts over his last five games (3.62 ERA). While his strikeouts (7 K’s/9) have dropped in 2017, the southpaw continues to miss bats (16% swing and miss rate) with his slider. Danny Duffy has an ERA of 3.56 while Jimenez’s ERA is 6.93. Again, Kansas City is the hottest team in the game. This market recognizes ERA in a big way and puts heavy influence on it. Why then, have the oddsmakers made Baltimore favored here? According to the numbers, current form and especially the starters, the O’s have no business being the chalk. This is a CLEAR enticement on the Royals and that’s the ONLY reason we’re backing the O’s here. We promise you that the line is not an oversight. We’re almost 100% sure that once the general public gets a hold of this line, Kansas City will be favored by game time. We’ll therefore wait until later in the day to pull the trigger and will update this around dinner time.
CHICAGO +151 over Toronto
James Shields is not going to get a lot of space here. We’ve been fading him for years and he’s almost never worth backing but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. Shields’ has at least a decent history against current Toronto batters so maybe he’ll give his team a chance to win here. We’re not counting on a decent outing from Shields, as that would be unreasonable. We’re simply playing the value here and in that regard, the Jays with Marco Estrada favored in this range on the road is absurd.
Toronto’s last three victories (all at home) were of the extremely unlucky variety. The Jays walked off last week with two grand slams and a three run rally in the ninth. They could and should be in a massive funk with something like 11 losses over their past 13 games. The last time the Jays were on the road, they were outscored 22-5 in a three-game series. The White Sox are no better but they’re a team that is loaded with youthful enthusiasm that is playing with nothing to lose and no pressure. The Jays are playing with nothing but pressure. The South Side’s young roster is having fun while Toronto’s lineup is pressing big time.
Then of course, there’s Marco Estrada, who limited the A’s to two runs in his last start but it was all luck. Estrada walked four and struck out four in that start. He has now walked 22 batters over his past 20 innings. His xERA in this start against Oakland was 6.34. Serious control issues in June and July have led to seven disaster results in his last 10 games started. Estrada has a 7.93 xERA and 1.93 WHIP over his last 10 starts and now he’s priced like he’s Dallas Kuechel? Marco Estrada and the Jays may win and if they so, so be it. However, the Jays aren’t winning games lately, they’re pulling rabbits out of their hat and Marco Estrada has been MLB’s worst pitcher for months. We must play the value here.
Seattle +112 over TEXAS
The trade deadline will come and go today. There will be buyers and sellers and we already know that the Mariners are buyers while the Rangers are sellers. That helps us to establish state of mind. A veteran team like the Rangers, that are laboring to begin with, are now being torn down piece by piece and therefore the feeling in the clubhouse can’t be a good one. The Rangers have five wins over their past 14 games. During this current home stand, Texas has been shut out twice in six games. What we especially like is that there was some excitement in Texas over the weekend with the anticipation of Adrian Beltre knocking out his 3000th hit. Beltre delivered and now the excitement level or atmosphere will be much different. One has to question the Rangers motivation level and focus at least for this one game after all that went on this past weekend (players concerned about trade deadline & Beltre getting his 3000th hit).
We now move to the starters. Felix Hernandez versus Cole Hamels used to be a marquee matchup but that’s no longer the case. On paper, Hamels looks like the superior pitcher but under the hood, it is the opposite. Hamels comes in with a 5-1 record and 3.97 while Felix comes in with a 5-4 record and 4.08 ERA. There’s not much ERA separation there but the market will see Hamels 4-0 record at home with a 2.88 ERA and likely bite against Hernandez’s 1-2 road record with a 5.00 ERA. Thing is, we don’t buy ERA’s, we buy skills and in that regard, we’ll take Seattle with Felix going getting a price against Texas with Hamels going 100% of the time.
A flukish hr/f affects Hernandez’s ERA, His xERA of 3.82 points to improvement from 2016’s approach. He’s getting ahead in the count more than in 2016, thus he’s walking far fewer batters. Hernandez has a very good BB/K split of 18/64 in 68 innings. Despite being in his 13th season, Hernandez clocks in at only 32 years with two more years left on his contract, While he’ll continue to contribute, the heyday is over but he’s still serviceable, he’s still effective and he’s still better than Cole Hamels, at least at the moment.
Hamels’ xERA is 4.54. It has gotten progressively worse over the course of the season. Hamels has struck out fewer batters and given up harder contact (37%) in 2017. Hamels has a lousy 41 K’s in 70 innings, which means he’s almost always at the mercy of batting average of batted balls in play. That’s not a comfortable way to pitch at this park. Hamels has been hammered in two of his last three starts and when you break it all down, we don’t see one area in which the Rangers have an edge here. Lastly, with Jonathan Lucroy traded to the Rocks, Hamels will also have to work with a different catcher.
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for today is on the Kansas City Royals over the Baltimore Orioles, and I want you listing the starting pitchers: Danny Duffy and Ubaldo Jimenez.
The Royals hand the ball to a surging Duffy, who has allowed a combined six runs over his last three starts, spanning19.2 innings. He also has a stingy 2.81 ERA in that span.
The left-hander should have added confidence for this one, as he allowed just two runs over seven innings against these Orioles back on May 12.
On the other hand, an inconsistent Jimenez comes in after a quality outing against the Tampa Bay Rays in which the right-hander went six innings and allowed two runs on three hits. But over his last three starts he is 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA.
I'll take the Royals and list both.
1* ROYALS
Jeff Benton
Monday's freebie is the Under in the Tigers-Yankees game.
Right now New York pitcher Luis Severino is throwing peas, so to expect Detroit to get a slew of runs is something you simply cannot count on.
Serverino has worked his last 14 innings without allowing an earned run to score. His ERA over his last 3 starts is 0.43, and the Under has banked in 3 of his last 4 starts.
Michael Fulmer will counter for the Tigers, and he does own a 2.91 season ERA in his road starts this season. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 season starts.
The Under has connect in each of the last 3 series meetings, and is 5-1-1 the past 7 times these teams have faced one another.
Have to look Low in Detroit-New York this Monday night in the Bronx.
4* DETROIT-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play winner is the Indians over the Red Sox.
The Indians were finally cooled down on Sunday, as they lost their series finale to the White Sox, 3-1 as the Tribe absorbed their first loss in 10 games.
Look for Cleveland to open this series in Boston with a win, as the Sox are slumping right now, losers of 6 of their last 8 games overall.
Doug Fister has been a bust since being picked up by Boston, as he enters this game with nary a win for the year, and an ERA of 7.46.
Mike Clevinger looks to rebound from a poor last start, and the road has been his preferred place to pitch, as he totes in a 4-1 road mark in his 7 road starts, and has a 2.15 ERA to go along with his 4 wins.
The Indians knocked the Red Sox out of the playoffs last year in a 3 game sweep, look for them to open this regular season series with the "W" as well.
Take the Indians.
2* CLEVELAND
Jack Brayman
My free play is on the Oakland Athletics against the San Francisco Giants, who suffered three straight one-run losses in Los Angeles, including last night's heartbreaker in extra innings. The Giants just couldn't catch a break against the best team in baseball.
Now they're facing Sonny Gray, the topic of trade conversation of late. Gray is 4-2 with a 1.37 ERA in his last six starts, a stretch in which his opponents have a .164 batting average against him. He will dominate the Giants tonight.
I don't have confidence in Cain, who will face the A's instead of Madison Bumgarner, in the Bay Bridge Series opener. Cain owns a 9-15 Interleague record with a 3.65 ERA in 32 appearances and will get chased early in Oaktown.
Take the A's here and list both scheduled starters.
3* ATHLETICS
Cal Sports
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals -130
While we’ve backed, Miami is several occasions at home that was as a favorite in which they are 17-12 not as a HD as they are tonight (8-15). The Nationals are coming off a loss and have excelled as AF’s going 25-10. Gio Gonzalez is 7-3 on the road with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while Joe Urena is also better on the road (6-0) but tonight he is at home where is 3-4 with a 1.53 WHIP. Marlins have struggles versus Southpaws especially at home where they are 2-9.
The Prez
Nationals at Marlins
Play: Under 9
Washington and Miami tangle on Monday night on Marlins Park field in Florida with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET with the Nationals sending southpaw Gio Gonzalez (8-5, 2.81 ERA) to the hill to oppose Marlins right-hander Jose Urena (9-4, 4.04).
While Gonzalez' 2017 traditional numbers are stellar with underlying stats that suggest regression is overdue his history against the Marlins lineup is smart. Gonzalez comes off a turn in which he allowed two runs on five hits and eight punch-outs over seven innings of work. Gio is 7-3 with a 3.50 ERA on the road this season and pitcher-friendly Marlins Park offers the veteran left-hander favor tonight. The Washington starter shows a 2.81 ERA but his FIP (4.19) and xFIP (4.28) offer evidence he has been fortunate for the most part this year. Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts versus the Marlins this season and 7-3, 2.09 in 13 career outings versus the Fish.
Urena's 9-4 overall mark this season is trumped only by his 8-2 record in his last 10 decisions. The Miami righty has only one quality start in his five July starts, however, he has favor versus the Nats lineup the first two-to-three times through the order as he has not faced the current Washington lineup this year and over the last two seasons has just three short relief appearances against them, the aforementioned being in 2016.
The Nationals are playing relaxed baseball at this point of the 2017 campaign. Washington owns a double-digit game lead over the second-place Marlins in the NL East and Gonzalez is most comfortable against his hometown team regardless of venue. Gio cruises through the first inning of tonight's event (four of the six runs allowed in his past two starts have come in the first inning) and tosses another quality effort.
Urena takes his team to the seventh inning in a low scoring closely contested contest tonight.
Buster Sports
Blue Jays at White Sox
Play: Blue Jays -1.5
The Toronto Blue Jays start a six-game road trip in Chicago tonight. The starting pitchers for tonight are for the Jays RH Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.43 ERA) and he will face for the White Sox RH James Shields (2-3, 5.86 ERA) Estrada is away better pitcher than what he has shown so far this year. He might be coming around as he allowed only two runs on five innings in his last game against the Oakland A’s. As for Shields, he has been a train wreck this year again. In his last three starts as he is sporting a 8.16 ERA with a WHIP of 2.163. The Jays scored seven runs in the ninth inning yesterday to beat the Angels, after coming off a win like that we really like the Blue Jays to take it to the White Sox tonight. The Blue Jays are minus 165 at the time of this writing so we will play the run line with the Blue Jays at plus 102.