Free Picks for Monday, July 3rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MARLINS AT CARDINALS
PLAY: MARLINS +132
This qualifies as hold your nose material, as the starting pitcher for the team I’m playing is a guy I generally avoid at almost all costs. But the key work there is “almost”, as this is one of the rare exceptions to the anti-Locke rule.
This is sweep revenge for Miami. As I’ve mentioned when playing these scenarios previously, check for yourself at how teams that that were swept in the prior series this season have fared in the first games of the rematches. Pretty good would be an understatement.
In this instance, it will mean taking Jeff Locke against Adam Wainwright, so I can certainly comprehend why there’s a natural hesitation. But the price is nice, the Redbirds did have to play on Sunday night and this St. Louis outfit is not very potent when facing southpaws.
Add it all up, with the key being the revenge angle, and I’m willing to take the plunge with the Marlins.
Cappers Club
Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Royals +124
Kansas City has been playing exceptionally well as of late and this offense is really heating up.
They are becoming a mirror image of a few years ago, when this team won the World Series. They grind games out, use their speed and aggressiveness, and have almost all their players gelling together at the right time.
Ian Kennedy has been sketchy at times this year, but he's a vet who can turn in good performances. Look for him to be aggressive himself and really come at these Mariners hitters.
Some trends to note. Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Red Sox -115
Edges - Red Sox: Porcello 5-0 last five team starts in July, and 3-0 last three team starts in this series… Rangers: Perez 1-6 team starts at night this season, and 5.64 ERA with 1.59 WHIP last seven overall team starts. With Texas just 2-7 on Mondays this season, we recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Ben Burns
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8½
Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a classic “pitches duel” on our hands in this one. Steven Matz (2-1, 2.67 ERA) has been excellent for the Mets since returning from injury, having completed seven innings in three of his first four outings (1.07 WHIP.) Matz most recently held Miami scoreless over six frames while stirking out four and walking one (is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA on the road.) The Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg (9-2, 3.51) comes in off a strong performance against the Cubs, holding the defending champs to three runs (just two earned) off four hits with one walk while striking out 13 over seven innings. As mentioned off the top, recent form suggests that runs will be at a premium tonight.
Jim Feist
Chicago at Oakland
Pick: Under
This is a good park for pitchers and a pair of weak offensive teams clash. Chicago is #18 in baseball in runs scored, #21 in on base percentage. The Under is 5-0 in the White Sox's last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Oakland is #24 in baseball in runs scored, #25 in on base percentage. Oakland is 6-2 under the total at home, 40-19-3 under at home against a team with a losing record. And the Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Power Sports
Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
The Rockies return home to Coors Field tonight w/ their "tail between their legs" as they're off a 1-8 road trip through the NL West. They've actually now dropped 10 of 11 overall, but let's simply refer to the road trip as a "market correction" as this club was not as good as their record prior to its commencing. While both the Dodgers and D'backs have outscored their respective opponents by over 100 runs this year, the Rockies differential currently sits at "just" +31 and even before the losing began, the number was far inferior to the competition within the division. But here, I expect the Rockies to start turning things around as they begin a week long home stand by hosting the lowly Reds.
Cincinnati may have beaten the Cubs both Friday and Saturday, but I faded them Sunday and they lost 6-2. (Note: I was ON them Friday, so I know when to both play on and against w/ this team!). The Reds actually have a winning record at home so far, but the road has been a much different story as they're 12-26 and being outscored by 1.7 rpg. Tonight's starter Luis Castillo certainly won't be scaring anyone, not with him having given up three home runs and issuing eight walks in his first two starts. He's also allowed 10 hits in 10 2/3 IP. Pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field should not treat him well.
Conversely, the Rockies' Jeff Hoffman has allowed only two home runs all season and that's in 42 1/3 IP. And remember, he regularly has to pitch here at Coors! Before being victimized by a blown save his last time out, Hoffman pitched well in San Francisco, allowing just two runs in 6 2/3 IP. Again, I expect Colorado to play well in this final week before the All-Star Break.
sleepyj
Orioles / Brewers Over 10
I like the over in this for two simple reasons....Bottom line is these two on the hill tonight don't put much fear in the guys stepping into the box...Both teams hit the LHP rather well and we get two LHP on the hill today...Plus the bullpens for both teams are average to below average.....We might just see a shootout here in this one and plenty of pop to get the ball out of the park.
Frank Jordan
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers +105
Boston is coming off a 15-1 win over Toronto as they pounded out 21 hits. Texas had five runs on nine hits, but lost 6-5 to Chicago White Sox. Boston is coming in at first place in the AL East, but are just 22-21 on the road. Texas is 22-17 at home, but just 40-42 overall. Texas is throwing Martin Perez who is 4-4 at home with a 4.95 ERA and 4-6 overall with a 4.70 ERA. Perez does have a start against Boston already and went 6 1/3 innings allowing three runs, but the bullpen gave it up in a 9-4 loss. Boston is throwing Rick Porcello who is 4-10 on the year with an ERA over five as he is still giving Boston innings, but giving up a lot of hits leading to runs and losses. Porcello has pitched a better ERA on the road at 4.67, but the record isn't as he is 1-4 in seven starts. Porcello has a start against Texas earlier this year where he allowed five runs with four earned on 11 hits and got the win despite the .393 batting average against as the offense bailed him out in an 11-6 win. Look for Porcello to get smacked around by the Texas bats while Perez throws another gem against the Red Sox in a 6-2 victory by the Rangers.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies -1½ +120
Colorado is going to be excited about returning home and getting back to their winning ways after an ugly 9-game road trip against division opponents. The Rockies started the trip by getting swept at both the Dodgers and Giants before finishing 1-8 with another series loss to the Dbacks. The key here is that this has been a spot where Colorado has thrived, as they are 8-1 in their last 9 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days.
While the Rockies should be locked in, I could see the Reds coming out a little flat after a big series at home against the Cubs, which they won by taking 2 of 3. They did lose the last contest, scoring just 2 runs on 5 hits and that was the 4th time in their last 5 games they totaled 8 or less hits.
Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman doesn't have great numbers, but the team is 5-2 in his 7 starts and he's really only had one bad outing against Arizona. He was sharp in his last outing, allowing just 2 runs in 6 2/3 at San Francisco. Reds counter with Luis Castillo, who will be making his 3rd career start. He's allowed just 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings, but is fortunate it hasn't been more, as he's allowed 3 HR's and walked 8. This being his first start at Coors Field and it coming against a good Rockies offense, I think he gets rocked here and the Rockies cruise to a comfortable win.
Stephen Nover
Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Royals +121
Maybe the Royals aren't going to be sellers at the trade deadline after all. The world champions from just two years ago, have stepped up to win 15 of their last 21 games.
Kansas City is proving itself on the road, too, going 15-10 in its last 25 away games, including 8-3 during its past 11 road games.
The Royals have won the opening game in five of the last six series. I like them to accomplish that again today in a pitching matchup of veteran Ian Kennedy against Andrew Moore, set to make only his second big league start.
Kennedy's road numbers don't look good, but he's held opposing batters to a .191 average away from Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City is 4-0 in his last four road outings. The Royals have won those games by an average of four runs.
Moore made his big league against the Tigers on June 22, giving up three runs on six hits in seven innings. That was a decent showing. The Royals have a lot of professional hitters, though, and they now have a body of work on Moore.
The Mariners are likely to still be missing Nelson Cruz, who is second on the team in homers and RBIs. He's nursing a sore knee. Seattle isn't playing great losing five of its last seven games.
Executive Sports
Red Sox at Rangers
Play: Red Sox -114
Red Sox are trying to pull away from the rest of their division. They have now won 4 in a row and they're 6-1 the past 7. They are 7-3 the past 10 games which ties them with Houston and the Dodgers as the hottest teams over the past 10 games.
Buster Sports
Angels at Twins
Play: Under 10
The Minnesota Twins return home from an 11 game road trip and face the LA Angels for the first of 3 games. The starting pitchers for tonight are for the Angels RH Alex Meyer (3-4, 3.74 ERA) and he will face the Twins LH Adalberto Mejia (3-3, 4.38 ERA) These two starting pitchers have both been on top of their game. In his last 3 starts Meyer is sporting a 2.94 ERA. As for Mejia he has a minuscule 1.17 ERA in his last 3 starts. These two guys faced each other in LA on June 1st with both pitchers giving up 1 run in 6 innings. Although one result does not lead to another the total on tonight's game is at 10 which might be a touch high, even at Target Field. The Angels are starting a 6 game road trip tonight and we see two disinterested teams facing two hot pitchers of late with the UNDER being the play. Backing our selection is the fact that the Under is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 vs. a team with a winning record and the fact that the Under is 8-2 in the Twins last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Scott Rickenbach
Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Royals +121
Even though the Mariners are off of a win yesterday, they had previously lost 5 of their last 6 games. Seattle, in their last 7 games, had one 10-run outburst but it is certainly noteworthy that in the other 6 games the Mariners averaged just 2.5 runs per game! As for the Royals, they got a 6-2 win versus Minnesota yesterday and Kansas City has now won 15 of its past 21 games. Look for them to stay hot here as Andrew Moore gets the start for Seattle and it is just the 2nd MLB start of his career. He just turned 23 last month and the inexperienced hurler has the tall task of facing a hot team plus trying to outduel a pitcher who has been on top of his game. Ian Kennedy gets the start for the Royals and he has allowed just 10 hits in the 17 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. KC has won each of Kennedy's last 4 starts. I like the underdog value here as Kennedy (with his 0.85 WHIP his last 3 starts) looks to lead the Royals to a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 starts!
Brandon Lee
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Play: Marlins +131
On paper the Cardinals couldn't look more like the obvious choice. St Louis is 6-2 in their last 8, while Miami is 1-4 in their last 5. The Marlins will send out Jeff Locke, who the team has yet to win behind in 6 starts and he enters with an ugly 5.52 ERA. The Cardinals send out Adam Wainwright, who despite an ugly 5.17 ERA in 16 starts overall, is 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in 8 home starts and enters off back-to-back strong outings. I just don't trust Wainwright, who is no longer an elite starter and his 1.301 WHIP at home suggest he's very fortunate to be 5-1 with a sub 3.00 ERA. Wainwright faced Miami earlier this season and gave up 4 runs in just 5 1/3 innings. One thing to keep in mind with Locke here is the Cardinals are hitting just .226 as a team against left-handed starters this season and aren't exactly in prime form after totaling just 4 runs on 9 hits in their last two games. Miami on the other hand is coming off a 10-run outburst where they compiled 17 hits. If you are looking for value, you won't find much better.