ASA
White Sox vs. A's
Play: A's -122
Oakland has lost five straight games but that was preceded by a 4-game winning streak that included a 3-game sweep of the White Sox at Chicago. That was a revenge series for the A's and they're not done seeking revenge either as they have lost 6 of their last 7 home games with the Pale Hose. Some payback is on order for Monday night and Jharel Cotton has been throwing well for the A's. Oakland has won each of his last two starts and he has 14 strikeouts and has walked only 3 in his last 3 starts. Cotton has given up only 10 hits in the 12 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two home starts. The White Sox are starting Carlos Rodon who just made his first appearance of the season after spending three months on the disabled list. Although Rodon did not give up any earned runs, his command was "off" to say the least! The Pale Hose southpaw walked 6 in only 5 innings of work and Oakland drew 10 walks in yesterday's tight loss to the Braves. That patience at the plate should pay off big tonight as Rodon's struggles to find the plate continue in this one. We also like the fact that we can lay a very small price here and fade a Chicago team that is only 17-27 in road games this season. Home fave line value available in this one and we'll take it!
The Winners Circle
Washington -170
Stephen Strasburg has won 42 of the last 57 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has won 39 of the last 52 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Stephen Strasburg has won 55 of the last 86 games vs. division opponents and he is 8-4 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 2.69.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +112 over N.Y. YANKEES
Masahiro Tanaka’s is a very good starter that has struggled with consistency this year. We have targeted him more than once this season and it paid off last time out against the South Side but the Yanks are not in great form. New York recently lost to James Shields. They went into Houston on the weekend and were shown the door. It may also surprise you to learn that the Yanks have dropped 14 of their last 19 games while playing one of the weakest schedules in the league over that span with a heavy dose of Oakland, L.A.Angels and Chicago.
Buy low, sell high is something we’re always preaching and we’ll apply that philosophy here after the Blue Jays were taken to school by the Red Sox this past weekend. The Blue Jays have now lost four in a row and eight of 10 with only two victories over that span coming against starters, Jason Hammel and Wade Miley. It seriously couldn’t get much worse for Toronto but getting out of town could not come at a better time. Because they’re playing the Yankees and because the Jays are in such poor form, we now get them with Marcus Stroman going at a bargain rate.
In 2016, Marcus Stroman was on a see-saw. After a poor first half with an ERA north of 5.00, he posted a 3.56 ERA the rest of the way. With a 6-2 record and 3.27 ERA in April and May of this year, it looked like Stroman could finally be counted on as a top AL starter but a rough June has brought out the skeptics. That rough June has us buying up Stroman’s stock because his skills are great. Stroman’s being hurt by a high hr/f, the same issue that hurt him in 2016. Regression is on the way in that area. Thing is, Stroman gives up very few fly balls and has one of the best groundball rates in the game. With a profile that features few walks, a better than average strikeout rate and a ton of ground balls (61%), Stroman’s is in the top tier of AL starters. The Jays now have a chance to come in here, relax and defeat a team that is struggling as miserably as they are. Marcus Stroman is always worth a bet when taking back a tag.
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +170 over Pittsburgh
Ivan Nova certainly had some highlights in Pinstripes. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2011 (16-4, 3.70 ERA) and put up a 3.10 ERA two years later—but his tenure with NYY was marred by injuries, rollercoaster production, and inconsistent roles that included rotation/bullpen shuffles and a couple demotions to Triple-A. Despite the inconsistency, Nova's career year in 2013 bred cautious optimism. Nova didn’t get a chance to take that next step up, as Tommy John came calling in May 2014. Upon his return, Nova posted a 4.99 ERA over his next 191 innings until the Yankees traded him to Pittsburgh on August 1, 2016 for a pair of High-A prospects and suddenly, things clicked. In his short time with Pittsburgh, Nova's put up some of the best numbers in baseball—his 2.91 ERA since the trade is seventh-best in MLB over that time span.
Ivan Nova has made tangible improvements in his time with Pittsburgh. His curveball command has improved thanks to a more consistent (and lower) release point, and he's attacking the zone more often early in the count. Both changes give legs to Nova's surface gains, as he won't be prone to the wild ERA swings we saw earlier in his career. That said, it’s hard to see further growth from here. Nova's historically great command has nowhere to go but up. It'll still be in great shape and his plus groundball rate should soften the fall, but unless Nova opts to use more secondary offerings—which isn't a priority given his strike-heavy, fastball approach—we’re not likely to see much improvement in his subpar strikeout rate. 60 K’s in 108 innings means he’s usually at the mercy of BABIP.
So while things are clicking for the new-look Ivan Nova, bettors that have cashed in on his hot run would be wise to ease up. The skills point more towards a 4.00-ish ERA with a great WHIP, which has plenty of value, but this ace-level wave has probably hit its crest.
This bet, however, is more about backing Aaron Nola because he is an ace-level starter that is not priced as such. After his 2016 season ended in July due to an elbow injury, Aaron Nola entered 2017 as a wildcard. His excellent skills pointed toward better results but his health was a major question. So how's he looking now? Awesome!
Nola is throwing harder and missing more bats. He has 64 K’s in 65 frames and his first-pitch strike rate and increasing swing and miss rate says he should keep racking up plenty of whiffs. Over his last five starts covering 33 innings, Nola has walked 11 and struck out 35. His groundball rate is up to 49% (53% in his last start). Nola keeps the ball on the ground, misses bats and is flashing very good control too. With an xERA over his last seven starts of 3.06, Nola figures to make a significant impact the rest of the way but for now, we’re getting him at a bargain price and thus, we’re buyers. You should be too. You now have the option to bet Philadelphia at -115 to -120. However, we usually go for the kill and spot -1½ runs with a big takeback, which is how we’ll proceed here.
Cincinnati -1½ +230 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
L.A. Angels +110 over MINNESOTA
We have discussed all the luck factors that affect all starters. Most of the media and market determine which starter is better based on ERA’s and we’ve outlined the flaws in that calculation. ERA’s do not take into consideration strand rate, batted balls in play (BABIP), hit percentage or home-run % per fly-balls allowed (hr/f). xERA’s on the other hand, calculate all of the above and more, which is why we’re able to find undervalued and overvalued starters daily. That brings us to today’s starter for the Twinkies, Adalberto Mejia.
Mejia is coming off a 5.2-inning shutout gem in Boston against the Red Sox. His ERA over his last three starts is 1.17. Both of those above facts will not go unnoticed in this market. What that doesn’t tell you is that Mejia’s xERA is 6.02, which is the worst mark on today’s board among all starters with five or more starts this season. Throw in a low BABIP, a high walk rate and it’s not hard to figure out that Mejia’s strong run recently has been all luck fueled. There are more negatives than positives in his skill set. Mejia's minor league K-rates have been mostly unimpressive, and while he's managed to post a higher rate in the majors so far in 2017, a 8% swing and miss rate doesn't bode all that well for his ability to sustain it. Control has been an issue for him on and off throughout his career and a 54% first-pitch strike rate suggests that those struggles will continue. Mejia has walked 28 batters in 51 frames and 14 over his last 27. The early evidence suggests he's a fly-ball pitcher, which brings home runs into play as well. His current 6.01 xERA illustrates how all of his skill shortcomings add up. Nearly every profile/scouting report of Mejia pegged his upside as a back-of-the-rotation starter, and his skills, especially these early MLB ones, tend to back up that notion. With the Twins struggling to find arms they can count on in their rotation, Mejia has an opportunity to stick around but as the chalk, he has no value and becomes a prime fade target instead.
Originally a first-round pick of the Washington Nationals in 2011, Meyer joined the Twins as part of the deal that sent Denard Span to Washington following the 2012 season. Pitching for the Twins organization, Meyer experienced success in the starting rotation over his first two seasons, posting an ERA in the mid-threes across 40 starts. That all changed at the outset of the 2015 season when Meyer struggled to command his arsenal and was pushed to the Triple-A Rochester bullpen by the Twins. In late July of last season, Meyer (along with Ricky Nolasco) was traded from the Twins to the Angels for Hector Santiago in what has to be considered one of the worst trades of the decade. Wonder no more why Minnesota’s pitching staff has been so bad for so long. The GM that made that trade is no longer working. Meyer now gets an opportunity to face the team that gave up on him and we have to suspect he’ll be jacked up and so will his teammates in support, knowing how important the game is to Meyer.
Aside from that, Meyer has always offered an electric arsenal with the potential to completely dominate hitters, and that arsenal has played to new heights at times this season. Standing 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds, Meyer cuts an imposing presence on the mound, using his length to generate exceptional angle and leverage to the plate. With that height and length, Meyer’s overpowering fastball plays up even more, cutting through the strike zone and making it very difficult for hitters to find contact. Meyer’s velocity works in the 95-98 mph range in short bursts and hits triple digits on occasion. On top of the extreme angle and velocity, Meyer’s fastball has good life in the zone and his extension out front allows his fastball to jump on hitters. Meyer’s fastball is an aggressive pitch that can completely dominate hitters in any situation. With 55 K’s in 47 innings, a 13% swing and miss rate and a 51% groundball rate over his last six starts, Meyer is someone to keep an eye on. His ERA/xERA split since the beginning of June is 2.42/3.62 with the latter mark being the result of walking too many batters. Meyer’s throwing more strikes however, with each passing start. If he’s not walking batters, he’s dominating them, which makes him a worthy gamble in this spot against the Twins vastly inferior starter and bullpen.
Ray Monohan
Yankees / Blue Jays Under 9
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Yankees and the Blue Jays face off on Monday night, and with two hot pitchers on the mound, the under has a ton of value. On the mound for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka who has struggled most of the year, but comes into this game hot.
In his last start two starts he has gone a total of 14 innings and only given up one run. He seems to have better control as of late and he has been able to keep the ball in the ballpark. On the mound for the Blue Jays is Marcus Stroman who seems to pitch better in big games, and his last start was a good one. He went 7.2 innings against Baltimore and didn't give up a run. Some trends to note. Under is 4-1 in Stromans last 5 starts overall. Under is 9-1 in Tanakas last 10 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Jack Jones
Pirates vs. Phillies
Play: Pirates +110
The Philadelphia Phillies have no business being favored against almost anyone. They are 27-53 on the season. Their entire rotation is below-average, and they certainly do not have the edge on the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates today.
Aaron Nola is 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-2 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in four home starts. The left-hander has never beaten the Pirates, going 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in two career starts against them.
Ivan Nova has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season. The right-hander has gone 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 16 starts this year. He was walked just 13 batters in 108 innings. Nova has never lost to the Phillies, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Nova is 12-1 against the money line vs. NL East opponents in his career. Philadelphia is 3-16 in its last 19 Monday home games. The Phillies are 4-10 in Nola's last 14 home starts. Pittsburgh is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings.
Dennis Macklin
Pirates vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8½
Ivan Nova (8-5, 3.08) has been a blessing for the Pirates who would likely be 15-20 games out at this point if not for the efforts of this ex-Bronx Bomber. He's just been quality and consistency with the LOW 10-6 in his 16 starts, 5-3 on the road and 3-0 L3. Nova is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three limited career starts vs. the Phils. Aaron Nola has his moments and can give you seven srong innings and usually does. He lost 1-0 to Pitt on 5/21 going seven while allowing just five hits and not getting any support.
Larry Wallace
Cincinnati at Colorado
Play: Colorado -1½
Hoffman this year is 4-1 with a 4.04 ERA. Hoffman has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts. Castillo has struggled pitching at Coors Field. He has given up 14 runs in 15 innings. The Reds are 5-21 in their last 26 road games. The Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning percentage under .400.
John Martin
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Mets +164
I'm taking a shot on the New York Mets at a big underdog price today against the Washington Nationals. I always like fading teams off the ESPN Sunday night games, and the Nationals are coming off a night game in St. Louis last night. The Mets have lefty Steven Matz going tonight, and the Nationals are hitting just .246 and scoring 3.8 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Matz is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in four starts this year. Matz is also 1-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in three previous starts against the Nationals. Stephen Strasburg has been very hittable this season, especially at home where he has posted a 4.41 ERA over eight starts. The Mets are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road this year. They are playing well of late with a 7-2 record in their last nine games overall.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Monday is going to be the Under in the National League East clash between the Washington Nationals and New York Mets.
With the Nationals coming off a 7-2 win last night in St. Louis, a return trip and an immediate game the next night will be a bit quieter offensively.
Strasburg is in after allowing three runs and striking out 13 over seven innings in his last start, against the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs. The last time he faced the Mets, on June 17, he gave up two runs over 5.1 innings. Look for him to be at his best today.
Matz, meanwhile, turned in his best start of the season, delivering seven shutout innings with four strikeouts against the Marlins in Miami in his last trip to the hill. He's pitched just four times this season, but has done well, producing a 2.67 ERA. Two of those starts were against these Nationals (4 ER over 7 IP) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (3 ER over 6 IP).
I like the pitchers to dominate in this one. Besides, teams coming off the Sunday night game and playing the next night are on a 7-2 Under run.
5* Mets-Nationals Under
Eric Schroeder
I'll play the St. Louis Cardinals over the Miami Marlins tonight, as teams playing at home the night after playing in the Sunday night game are 7-2 this season.
The Redbirds are in after being dominated by Washington Nationals starter Max Scherzer last night. They managed no runs and two hits against him, in what ended up being a 7-2 loss.
Tonight they'll be looking to avenge the outing, in front of the home crowd at Busch Stadium, where last night's loss took place.
I'm not too worried about the Cardinals, either, as they still have plenty of momentum from winning six of their previous seven before last night.
Miami arrives after playing in Milwaukee over the weekend, and though it won on Sunday, it is still 15-23 on the road this season. The Marlins have lost six of their last 10 games, too.
I'll take the Cardinals in a bounce back game.
3* CARDINALS
Jack Brayman
I'm playing the Under in the Miami Marlins-St. Louis Cardinals battle tonight at Busch Stadium, as we're chasing a bit of a Sunday night trend in this one.
After five of eight totals went over in Monday night games involving teams that played in the Sunday night game, the under is on a 7-2 run since May 22.
Since Locke is still winless through six starts with the Marlins, something tells me he'll step his game up with this one. Locke steps to the hill after turning in a solid outing, allowing three earned runs over 5.2 innings, the most he’s thrown since his first start on June 1.
Wainwright, meanwhile, recorded a second straight quality start to follow a three-game stretch in which he allowed 20 runs over 10.1 innings. The veteran right-hander has worked diligently on his mechanics, and specific changes have helped him rediscover his fastball, bringing more life and velocity on the pitch.
Play this one low tonight.
4* Marlins-Cardinals Under
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play is the Red Sox over the Rangers.
Boston has taken control in the competitive A.L. East, as the BoSox have opened a 3-game lead now over the Yankees. Boston has won 4 in a row, and 6 of their last 7, and they have also won 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games played against tonight's opponent the Texas Rangers.
Texas is back after a long road trip that saw them drop 5 of their last 7 games.
Rick Porcello has been mostly a bust this season following last year's Cy Young Award campaign, as he is just 4-10 with an ERA over 5.
Porcello will work against Martin Perez who is 2-0 for his last 3 starts.
Granted, the pitching matchup may slightly be in Texas' favor, but right now I will not play against the surging Sox.
Boston the call on Monday.
3* BOSTON
Jeff Benton
Don't stick a fork in the Royals just yet.
Kansas City just took 3 of 4 off of division-rival Minnesota over the weekend, and they head to the Emerald City having won 15 of their last 21 overall, with 8 road wins in their last 11 games away from KC.
Seattle did take 2 of 3 from the L.A. Angels, but have lost 5 of their last 7 games overall.
The Royals will face the untested Andrew Moore who was a winner in his major league debut on June 22nd over the Detroit Tigers. This will be just Moore's second start at this level, and he is facing a pretty hot team tonight in KC.
Kansas City will have Ian Kennedy on the mound, and he is pitching his best baseball of the season with a 2-0 mark over his last 3 starts, and no more than 2 runs allowed in any of those 3 efforts.
Have to side with the hot visitor tonight at Safeco Park.
3* KANSAS CITY
Bob Balfe
Twins -120
The good news for the Angels is they are going to get Mike Trout back after the all-star break. The bad news for this team is they have been ice cold with the bats as of late. Adalberto Mejia has been dialed in his last few starts and should get the home victory tonight.
Harry Bondi
NY YANKEES (-130) over Toronto
We’ve hit five out of our last six Free Picks and tonight back Masahiro Tanaka.and the New York Yankees over Toronto. Both teams have been struggling but Tanaka has pitched well his last two starts posting a 1.29 ERA and he has pitched well against the Blue Jays going 7-3 with a 2.65 ERA.