DAVE COKIN
ORIOLES AT DODGERS
PLAY: DODGERS -1
I’ll go the -1 route today with the Dodgers. This can be accomplished easily for those without access to actual -1 lines, by splitting the bet between the money line and the runs line.
The Orioles head to Los Angeles off a rough weekend at Safeco, as Baltimore got swept in a four-game set by the Mariners. The Birds have now lost five straight, and their pitching staff got mauled by the hot hitting Seattle team.
I don’t anticipate the Dodgers bombing out the Orioles in similar fashion, as they simply aren’t as explosive with the sticks. But I also don’t see the hosts having to put a bunch on the board here, as I’m banking on teenage sensation Julio Urias to contain the Baltimore bats pretty well.
Urias had a rough time in his first couple of major league starts. He couldn’t get through three innings in his debut against the Mets, and Urias also found the going tough at Wrigley Field in his second start. But things have gone much more smoothly since, and Urias comes into this matchup on a nice little roll.
Urias is being well protected by the Dodgers. He’s not being allowed to work deep into games, and in fact the lefty is supposed to make just a few more starts before being moved to the pen to save innings. That might change now with the Clayton Kershaw injury, but either way, Urias won’t pitch more than five or six innings in any of his remaining starts.
One thing that’s certain is that the hype surrounding Urias is legitimate. This kid has dynamic stuff and as long as he stays healthy physically, he’s about as can’t miss as it gets in terms of his future.
Yovani Gallardo will try to get past the Dodgers with his assortment of pitches, none of which get to the plate with much velocity. Gallardo now relies on his mid-80’s slider more than any other pitch, and he has now arrived at the point of his career where it’s all about location. When he’s got it, Gallardo can still get by. When the command is off, the veteran right becomes very vulnerable.
Give Gallado credit, he’s finding a way to get by. He’s clearly not dominating anymore, but the savvy is still there and Gallardo is certainly capable of putting together a quality start for six or so innings. So while I like Urias better here, it’s not an overwhelming differential on the mound.
What I like more here is that I’m seeing two teams traveling in different directions right now. Baltimore has lost four straight, while the Dodgers are playing pretty good ball and they’ve now won four in a row.
I made this number a bit higher than where it presently stands based on the pitching and team form. However, it’s not so cheap that I’m comfortable playing a full unit on LA money line. I’d rather reduce the liability and therefore, I’m splitting this into a ML/RL split. The Dodgers -1 are the holiday free play.
Stephen Nover
Tampa Bay -130
Matt Moore is healthy and pitching well again. Tampa Bay is a favorable spot, too, catching the West Coast Angels traveling for this early start. Moore is off his best start - seven scoreless innings against Boston this past Wednesday. The southpaw draws the Angels at low ebb, winners of just two of their last 13 games. Moore is 3-0 in four lifetime starts versus the Angels with a 1.52 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. The Angels are 9-14 against lefties.
The Angels have lost during the past eight times they've opened a series.
NickTropeano is a fringe starter getting a call up from the minors to make his first big league start since May 29. Tropeano had been dealing with a shoulder injury.
The Rays have had a cluster injury problem in the outfield, but have Steven Souza back and Desmond Jennings could return today.
Rob Vinciletti
Cincinnati at Chicago
Play: Chicago -1.5
The Cubs are back home after getting swept by the Mets. They will take on a Reds team they have beat 9 of 10 times. and they qualify in a power system that plays on certain home favorites off a road favored loss vs a team off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less like the Reds. Chicago is 6-1 as a home favorite off a road loss and average over 6 runs vs Division teams. Reed for the Reds is 0-3 with a 9.00 era. Hendricks for the Cubs has a 1.79 home era. Cubs coast in this one.
Mike Lundin
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Yankees -122
This looks like a reasonable price on the New York Yankees with CC Sabathia on the mound as they travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox for the opener of a three-game series.
Sabathia (5-5, 3.17 ERA) has struggled lately surrendering six runs in each of his last two starts. He does however own a 10-1 record with a 3.28 ERA in 17 career starts at U.S. Cellular Field, and he's 19-5 with a 3.68 ERA in 34 starts against the White Sox during his career. The 35 year old southpaw has a combined .213 BAA versus current White Sox hitters.
Chicago turns to James Shields (3-9, 5.85) who's off a couple of solid outings following a disastrous start to his career with the White Sox. It could all be back to square one today though; Shields is 10-16 with a 4.15 ERA in 31 career starts against New York while surrendering a total of 30 home runs.
Yankees are 12-3 in the last 15 meetings and 6-2 in Sabathia's last eight starts vs. White Sox. Look for the Yankees to bring you some free money here on 4th of July.
Scott Spreitzer
Angels vs. Rays
Play: Rays -129
Two struggling teams meet up on Monday but the edge in this matchup has to go to Matt Moore and the Tampa Bay Rays. Moore pitched seven shutout innings against Boston his last start and in his last 26 1/3 innings, Moore has 27 strikeouts and just six walks. Also, the left-hander is 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in day games this season. Nick Tropeano last pitched on May 29 and allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Rays earlier this season. The Angels have lost 12 of their last 15 versus losing teams on the road and went back to their losing ways yesterday after an uncharacteristic 21-2 win on Saturday.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Yankees -123
Edges - Yankees: CC Sabathia 2.98 ERA with 1.21 WHIP last seven overall starts; and 3-0 versus A.L. Central foes and 3-0 as a favorite this season. White Sox: James Shields 2-12 as a dog and 0-4 in day games this season. With Shields in lousy KW form with 12 BB’s and 11 K’s his last three starts, and sporting an 11.48 ERA with a 2.38 WHIP in his last seven efforts, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Bob Harvey
Angels vs. Rays
Play: Over 8
Two of the most disappointing teams in baseball meet in Tampa where the Rays host the Angels in a battle of American League cellar dwellers. This will be the second series meeting of the year after the Rays swept three in Los Angeles from May 6-8.
The Angels (33-49, 34-48 RL) begin the day in last place in the AL West, 18.5 games behind the first-place Texas Rangers. Los Angeles is just 2-11 in its past 13 games following Sunday’s 10-5 loss at Boston. Injuries, lack of talent and questionable front office decisions have taken their toll on this once proud franchise and there’s nothing on the farm to help the big club. The culprit is owner Arte Moreno whose rash decisions and lack of vision have doomed the Angels for years to come.
The Rays (33-48, 33-48 RL) aren’t in any better shape. They occupy the basement in the AL East, and are 14.5 games back of the division leading Baltimore Orioles. They’ve dropped 16 of their last 18 contests after getting swept in four by Detroit at home over the weekend.
Nick Tropeano (3-2, 3.25 ERA) has been called up from Triple-A Salt Lake City to make his first major league start since May 29. Matt Moore (4-5, 4.67 ERA) has had his way with the Angels in his career, boasting a 3-0 record in four starts with an impressive 1.52 ERA over 23.2 innings. He limited Boston to three hits over seven scoreless innings last time out giving him three quality starts in his past four outings.
Alex Smart
Brewers vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7
Such an early game should see both teams offenses start slowly this morning . Scherzer is 9-5 with a 2.62 ERA in 18 day games since joining the Nationals. Meanwhile, his Brewers pitching counter part Guerra is coming off his best start of the year, shutting out the Dodgers over eight innings with seven K's on Wednesday, thanks to a cutter thats hard to hit. I am expecting both starters to go deep and for the combined score to stay on the low side of the number.
Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.Under is 7-2 in Guerras last 9 starts overall.Under is 3-1-1 in Scherzers last 5 home starts.Under is 19-7-4 in Nationals last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Larry Ness
Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
The Atlanta Braves are just 28-54 on the season but despite last night’s 5-2 loss at Fort Bragg (North Carolina) to the Miami Marlins, the Braves are 8-5 in their last 13 against NL East rivals. Atlanta visits Philadelphia on Monday afternoon for the opener of a three-game series with the Phillies, hoping to continue that success (Phillies are just 37-46). However, Philadelphia is on an uptick, with its 7-2 victory over Kansas City on Sunday giving them a FIFTH win in its last six contests. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola will be skipped in the rotation and throw a simulated game in Colorado on Thursday instead, so he can come back well-rested after the All-Star break. Jerad Eickhoff (5-9, 3.38 ERA) will get the ball for the Phillies, while Joel De La Cruz (0-1, 4.50 ERA) gets the nod for the Braves.
De La Cruz makes his second career start, after he received no offensive support in his major-league debut this past Wednesday. He allowed three runs on seven hits while recording only one strikeout in six innings of a 3-0 loss to the Indians. Prior to joining the Braves, De La Cruz went 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA in 21 games (five starts) in Triple-A. Eickhoff’s 3.38 ERA is the lowest of any Philadelphia starter this year and in 16 starts the team is 7-9. He has allowed fewer than three runs in FIVE of his last six starts (and just three in the other outing) but is just 3-2 in that span (team is 4-2). Eickhoff evened his career record against Atlanta at 1-1 in three outings after scattering five hits over seven scoreless innings at home on May 22.
Atlanta (3.41 RPG) is the lowest scoring team in MLB and Philadelphia (3.51) is MLB’s second-lowest scoring team but the Phillies' bats have come alive during the team's current 5-1 stretch, averaging 5.67 RPG. I’m backing the home team.
Will Rogers
Kansas City vs. Toronto
Pick: Under
Both the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays will be looking to make one last push before the All Star break to improve on their third place in their respective division. The Jays are coming off back-to-back wins against the red hot Indians, but Monday's series-opener with Kansas City might be a pitcher's duel.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to Edinson Volquez (7-7, 4.80 ERA) who tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings at St. Louis his last start. He threw six scoreless innings in Game 1 of the ALCS, a 5-0 Royals victory, his last meeting with Toronto. The Jays counter with Aaron Sanchez (8-1, 3.08) who will make his first career start against the Royals. Sanchez has impressed in recent starts, going 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his last six appearances.
2. Situational - The Jays' bats exploded in a 17-1 win against the Tribe on Sunday. We often see teams struggle at the plate in the next game following such a performance, and I think that will apply to Toronto tonight.
3. X-Factor - Kansas City's bullpen has the best ERA in baseball for the third consecutive season.
Jim Feist
Braves at Phillies
Pick: Under
The Braves offense is the worst in MLB and the Under is 8-3 in Braves last 11 vs. the National League East. Joel De La Cruz threw well in his only start, allowing 3 runs and 1 walk in 6 innings against Cleveland. The under is 9-4-2 when the Braves face a team with a losing record. Philadelphia can't hit either, but starter Jerad Eickhoff (3.38 ERA) has been very good. Eickhoff allowed two runs on seven hits and three walks with six strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision Tuesday against Arizona, a 4-3 win. Eickhoff has a sharp 132:37 K:BB and a 3.12 ERA. The team is 7-1 under the total when he starts. And the Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Jesse Schule
Cincinnati at Chicago
Pick: Chicago -1.5.
The Cubs will be happy to be back at Wrigley after taking a beating in New York over the weekend. They swept the Reds in Cincinnati last week, and the cellar dwellers of the NL Central have dropped six of their last seven. My money is on the Cubs to win big at Wrigley in a matchup between first versus worst. Kyle Hendricks will toe the slab for the Cubs, and he's coming off three straight victories. Hendricks (6-6, 2.76 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on eight hits, striking out five in 6 2/3 innings in a 9-2 win at Cincinnati his last time out. He's been great at home this year, with a record of 4-1 and a 1.93 ERA in seven starts at Wrigley. The Reds hand the ball to Cody Reed, who was torched by the Cubs in his last start. Reed was the opposing pitcher when Hendricks got the win in Cincinnati last week, and he gave up seven runs on nine hits in just four innings in that game. Reed is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three career starts in the big leagues, and his first win is unlikely to come against the Cubs at Wrigley. If the Cubs can't get to Reed, there's a good chance they can get to Cincinnati's bullpen that ranks dead last in the majors with an ERA of 5.90.
Scott Rickenbach
Royals vs. Blue Jays
Play: Royals +1½
After winning 4 of their last 5 games the Royals just lost two out of three to the Phillies! Needless to say Kansas City will be fired up about getting back on track tonight. Even though the Blue Jays have won two straight they previously lost 8 of their last 12 games. Toronto is 10-12 (-5.2 net!) in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The Royals are 21-15 (+6.1 net!) in all games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this year. Edinson Volquez has unimpressive numbers overall on the season but he is off of a fantastic start and this evening he is facing a Blue Jays team against which he has only given up 9 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last three starts against them. Aaron Sanchez shows great numbers on the season but he has allowed 18 earned runs on 39 hits in the 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 6 home starts! That equates to a 5.52 ERA for Sanchez in home starts the past 7 weeks and that is not impressive at all. Don't be surprised if the Royals get the upset win here but I like the added value here of having the +1.5 runs and only having to law very small juice to get it. Toronto is 4-2 in the 6 home starts Sanchez has made but 2 of those 4 wins came by just a single run. The Royals are 13-8 in their last 21 games and 3 of the 8 defeats came by just one run so KC would be 16-5 their last 21 games at +1.5 runs!
Jimmy Boyd
Giants -130
San Francisco is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Rockies on Monday. The Giants have won 3 of 4 and are a solid 24-16 at home this season. Colorado on the other hand has lost 5 straight.
Giants will send out Jake Peavy, who has a respectable 3.31 ERA over his last 3 starts. He faces a Rockies offense that is really struggling at the moment. Colorado has scored a total of 2 runs in their last 3 games combined and are hitting just .241 as a team in their last 7.
San Francisco is red-hot at the plate, scoring 6.1 runs/game and hitting .286 as a team over their last 7. Giants are also 20-9 in the 29 day games they have played this season. In those games they are scoring 5.8 runs/game and hitting .280 as a team.
Colorado is 3-21 in their last 24 road games in the month of July and 1-15 in their last 16 after two straight games with 5 or less hits.
Brandon Lee
Dodgers -164
I've got no problem backing the Dodgers at this big price at home with Julio Urias on the mound. Urias is only getting better with each start and has a sizzling 1.93 ERA in 3 home starts. I'll take my chances on Urias out performing the Orioles Yovani Gallardo, who has an ugly 7.58 ERA over 4 road starts. Baltimore is also just 8-21 in their last 29 games after playing 2 straight on the road.