Free Picks for Monday, June 19th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS VS. MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS -`135
I’m going to play against Anibal Sanchez in this game. The veteran righty has been recalled from Toledo, where he has worked on tweaking a few things in hopes of working his way back to a big league rotation spot.
Sanchez did pretty well at AAA, but the fastball was still in the 91 neighborhood, touching 93. So Sanchez is going to have to be spot on in locating his changeup and I’m just going to have get shown he can still get major league hitters out. He sure didn’t early this season, and he’s not exactly facing a soft Seattle lineup here.
Sam Gaviglio will throw for the Mariners. Gaviglio is a finesse righty who projects as a back end guy. But like many rookie pitchers, he’s enjoying a nice first trip around the league against hitters who’ve never seen him. Gaviglio has been very effective at Safeco, and the team keeps winning when he takes the mound.
The Mariners got a needed Sunday win at Texas, and now get back home where they’ve played pretty well for the most part. The same cannot be said for the Tigers on the road. Not as cheap as I’d like, but at 7:5 or better, I see the Mariners being worth a play tonight.
Ben Burns
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9
Corey Kluber (5-2, 4.38 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing just two runs off four hits and a walk over seven innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. The Indians’ ace has now posted three ten-strikeout games over his last five trips to the mound. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.29) who got a win in his last start despite giving up five runs off six hits over five innings against the White Sox on Wednesday. Performances like that have been few and far between for Bundy this year though as it was only the second time in 14 outings that he was unable to complete six frames of work. Bundy’s peripherals suggest that some regression is expected in the future, but he’s been at his best at home all year, so far 4-2 with 2.38 ERA. Recent performance suggests we’ll have a bit of a “duel” on our hands in this one, consider the under.
Marc Lawrence
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +115
Edges - Marlins: Nicolino 2-0 with 1.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP home team starts this season… Nationals: Roark 5.31 ERA and 1.56 WHIP last seven overall team starts… With the host 3-0 in Nicolino’s starts this season, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Art Aronson
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Over 9½
Tanner Roark has been struggling of late, while Justin Nicolino is making his first start back after a short stint on the 10-day DL. We’re expecting these starters to get chased early and we look for this one to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch:
Roark: He’s 6-4 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Roark gave up seven runs off nine hits and two walks over five innings in a 13-2 loss to ATL on Wednesday, also striking out five. Over his last three starts Roark has now been rocked for 16 runs off 25 hits (including four dingers).
Nicolino: He’s 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Nicolino made a successful re-hab start in Triple-A after being placed on the DL with a finger contusion. Nicolino though owns a career 4.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and a poor 9.8 percent strikeout rate in 1631.1 innings in the big leagues.
The bottom line: Note that Washington has seen the total go OVER in the number in 11 of 17 road games this year when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while Miami has seen the total go OVER in 12 of 18 at home with a money line in the same range.
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Texas
Pick: Toronto
The Texas Rangers have won seven of their last nine, working their way back to .500 (34-34). Strong starting pitching has been the key, as Texas allowed only 2.4 runs in those seven wins. Toronto won eight of nine to end May at 26-27 but just seem to not be able to get over the .500 hump. The Blue Jays were one game under .500 at 32-33 after a 7-6 win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday but the lost two of three to the Chicago White Sox over the weekend to fall to 33-35. Toronto opens a seven-game road trip strong on Monday at Texas, the first of a four-game series.
Marco Estrada (4-5, 4.54 ERA) heads to the mound on Monday vs the Rangers and rookie Austin Bibens-Dirkx (2-0, 3.28 ERA). Estrada will look to snap a string of three straight losses, including a setback against Tampa Bay on Tuesday in which he was knocked around for six runs on 12 hits in just 3.1 innings. Estrada's last win came against Texas on May 27, when he allowed one run and struck out eight over six innings. He's 4-1 with a 2.02 ERA in seven career starts vs the Rangers (Jays are 5-2). Bibens-Dirkx recorded his first win as a starter at Washington on June 11, when he held the Nationals to one run on three hits in seven frames. He's made just two starts in his seven 2017 appearances but this marks his third start in his last four. He owns a 1.01 WHIP and .200 opponents BA to go along with his 3.28 ERA.
Estrada has not pitched more than 5.2 innings in any of his last three starts (all losses), while posting a 12.08 ERA. However, he's shown himself to be a credible major league starter these last few years, as opposed to Bibens-Dirkx, who is making his major league debut here in 2017, at the age of 32.
Jim Feist
Giants at Braves
Pick: Under
San Francisco is one of the worst offensive team in baseball, #28 in runs, and plays its fifth straight road game. Johnny Cueto is on the mound with an 86-25 strikeout to walk ratio in 86 innings. Atlanta starter R.A. Dickey is 3-1 at home with a 4.15 ERA. Atlanta is #20 in runs scored.
Will Rogers
Mets vs. Dodgers
Pick: Mets
The set-up: The Mets had hoped to gain some ground with a four-game home series against the Nats but were only able to win one of the four and that came Sunday (5-1), after having lost 8-3, 7-2 and 7-4 Thursday through Saturday. The 31-37 Mets may be in second place in the NL East but they are 10 1/2 games back of the Nats. New York now heads out on a 10-game road trip and it begins tonight with a four-game series in LA against the Dodgers. Los Angeles went 5-1 in a six-game trip at Cleveland and Cincinnati and return home tied with Arizona (44-26), one game behind Colorado (46-26) for first in the NL West.
The pitching matchup: The Mets will try to win Monday's game behind Zack Wheeler (3-4 & 4.48 ERA), who will LA ace Clayton Kershaw (9-2 & 2.23 ERA). Wheeler pitched poorly last Tuesday at home vs. the Cubs, allowing eight runs on six hits (including two HRs) and three walks in just 1 2/3 innings before being pulled in a 14-3 loss. However, that ended a stretch of seven straight starts with fewer than four ERs (not bad but not Kershaw-like). Kershaw hit a 'spped bump' on May 28 vs, the Cubs (lasted just 4 1/3 innings and allowed four ERs on 11 hits!) but has been back to his Cy Young Award-winning form over the last three outings. He's allowed a total of only four ERs over 21 innings (1.71 ERA). Wheeler sat out 2015 and 2016 while recovering from elbow surgery and is making his first career start against Los Angeles. In contrast, Kershaw is 8-1 with a 1.49 ERA against the Mets in 13 career starts (Dodgers are 11-2).
The pick: On the surface it doesn't look like a "fair fight,"Kershaw versus Wheeler at Dodger Stadium where LA is 25-10, but I'm going to take the 1 1/2 runs with the Mets.
John Fisher
Nationals at Marlins
Play: Marlins +103
Teams hit .165 versus SP Volquez when he pitches at Home. His ERA of 3.18 is also special which was enhanced by his NO NO three games ago. The Nationals have seen him plenty of times and wit 175 ABs they have just 1 hr. SP Roarke has struggled in June and has been having a difficult time going 25 innings giving up 18 hits and 13 runs. I'm going to,take the Dog at Home.
Dave Essler
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers
I can't back Estrada on the road, and TBH I am not sure I can back him at home. His last seven starts produced a 6.10 ERA and a WHIP near 1.50. If Bibens-Dirkx can hold Washington to three runs in seven innings on the road, he can hold Toronto down - the Rangers' bullpen will help us get the over, too.
Rocketman
Toronto vs. Texas
Play: Texas +114
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Texas to take on the Rangers on Monday night. Toronto is 33-35 SU overall this year while Texas comes in with a 34-34 SU overall record on the season. Marco Estrada is 4-5 with a 4.54 ERA overall this year, 2-3 with a 4.15 ERA on the road this season and 0-3 with a 12.08 ERA his last 3 starts. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is 1-0 with a 3.08 ERA in his 2 starts this season. Toronto is scoring only 4.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Texas is scoring 5.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!
Jeff Benton
Monday comp play winner is to ride the rolling Dodgers-express at home on the Run Line against the visiting New York Mets.
L.A. has won their last 3, and 9 of their last 10 games overall, and they have their ace Clayton Kershaw taking the mound. Kershaw has never lost to the Mets, standing at 7-0 in his 11 career starts with an ERA of 1.29.
The Mets will counter with Zack Wheeler who was pitching quite well until his last start when the Cubs socked him good for 8 runs on 6 hits in under 2 innings of work.
New York was able to avoid the 4 game sweep at home against Washington, but this long trek to play a sizzling Dodgers team sets up to be a big time blowout.
Play the Dodgers on the Run Line.
4* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Monday night free play is the Rays over the reeling Reds.
Cincinnati has gone completely belly-up. as they head to Tropicana Field having lost 9 in a row. They are also a money-burning 6-20 their last 26 games away from the Queen City.
Tampa Bay has been blowing hot enough to make some noise in the A.L. East standings, as they have won 8 of their last 12 games to push their mark to 2 games over .500.
The pitching matchup looks like a wash to me, as Scott Feldman and Jake Odorizzi sport similar season marks, and similar marks over their past 3 assignments.
Throw the mound matchup out the window, and just stick with the hot team versus the ice-cold one.
Rays over the Reds.
4* TAMPA BAY
Jack Brayman
Now on a 8-4 run with my complimentary plays. Let's head to Tampa Bay for tonight's freebie, as I like the Rays to get things done over the Cincinnati Reds.
I won't get too in-depth with this one, as it's a comp winner, and pales in comparison to my premium selection. So this winner on Tampa Bay means damn near nothing, as it's an opinion play.
But the fact is the Rays are the right side of this game, and I want you listing only Jake Odorizzi.
The right-hander has been outstanding this year at home, at Tropicana Field, firing five consecutive quality starts with a 3.11 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. And while I know he’s never faced Cincinnati, Odorizzi is 6-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 career Interleague starts.
Tonight he gets a team that is mired in a nine-game losing streak, and that is forced to hit the road for a tough stretch.
Tampa Bay is the right side.
1* RAYS
Scott Rickenbach
Astros vs. Athletics
Play: Under 9½
The Astros Brad Peacock has been a strikeout machine with 36 K's in the less than 23 innings spanning his 5 starts this season. That is significant here because only one team in the American League has more strikeouts than Oakland this season. Also, the A's are hitting just .242 against right-handed pitching this season and only 1 team in the AL has a lower batting average versus righties. Look for a stellar outing from Peacock here as the match-up is perfect. As for the Astros sticks, they could be a little worn out after they had the night game last night (and it went late) and then having to travel for this match-up the very next night at Oakland. I know the A's Daniel Gossett had a rough MLB debut but that was on the road at Miami. He now is at home at pitcher-friendly Oakland and he does has produced solid numbers throughout his minor league career and this includes at the highest level (AAA). I expect him to bounce back big after that rough debut versus the Marlins. The under is 5-1 in the Athletics Monday games this season. The under is 6-2 in Houston's Monday games this season. Look for more of the same here!