Brad Diamond
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Indians -172
Cleveland travels to Baltimore on Monday after sweeping Minnesota (28-8 ) in a four-game road set, now winners of 5 straight overall. The Orioles have now won back-to-back games after smashing St. Louis again in Camden Yards. On the mound, the Indians bring RHP Kluber (5-2, 4.15), while Baltimore uses RHP Bundy (7-5, 3.29). Behind Kluber, Cleveland is 21-5 on grass and 7-0 in game #1 of a series. With the Indians having a more consistent road bullpen we'll back the visitor here.
Brandon Lee
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals -109
This is a great price to back Washington on the road against division rival Miami. The Nationals come in off a loss, but took 3 of 4 on the road against the Mets in the series. Washington is now an impressive 21-13 against division opponents this season and are also a solid 24-13 on the road. I believe we are getting some value here with the Nats because of the poor overall numbers for starter Tanner Roark, but he's a solid 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 6 road starts and has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts against the Marlins. Miami will give the ball to Justin Nicolino, who is 0-3 with an 8.62 ERA in 3 career starts against the Nationals.
Ray Monohan
Giants / Braves Over 9.5
The San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves face off on Monday night and with the two pitchers on the mound, the over has a ton of value. On the mound for the Giants is Johnny Cueto who's age seems to be catching up to him. He has a 5-6 record and an ERA of 4.57. In his last start he got rocked for ten hits and five runs including three home runs.
On the mound for the Braves is R.A. Dickey who's knuckleball just doesn't seem to work anymore. He has struggled all season and really struggles coming into this game. In his last start he went five innings and gave up eight hits and eight runs. Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 overall. Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 overall.
Darryl Tucholski
Padres vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -220
Chicago is 20-15 at home, Jon Lester is coming off of a strong 10 strikeout performance. Clayton Richard just delivered a 127 pitch outing, fade the arm tonight.
Doc's Sports
Tigers vs. Mariners
Play: Tigers +136
The Detroit Tigers visit Safeco Field on Monday, June 19, 2017 to play the Seattle Mariners. The probable starters are Jordan Zimmermann for the Tigers and Sam Gaviglio for the Mariners.
The opening line for this matchup has Detroit at +130 and Seattle at -140. The Tigers have a 36-29-2 over/under record and a 34-33-0 run line mark. The Mariners are 32-38-0 against the run line and have a 34-34-2 over/under record.
Valuable Detroit Tigers Betting Trends
The Detroit Tigers are 36-29-2 against the over/under
The Detroit Tigers are 34-33-0 against the run line
Important Seattle Mariners Betting Trends
The Seattle Mariners are 34-34-2 against the over/under
The Seattle Mariners are 32-38-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Tigers have a 32-35 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has a 5-5 record with an earned run average of 5.35 and a WHIP of 1.47. He has 48 strikeouts over his 75.2 innings pitched and he's given up 89 hits. He allows 10.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.78. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.07 and they have given up 206 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .258 against the bullpen and they've struck out 187 hitters and walked 87 batters. As a team, Detroit allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.67. The Tigers pitchers collectively have given up 628 base hits and 306 earned runs. They have allowed 81 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Detroit as a pitching staff has walked 229 batters and struck out 499. They have walked 3.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit is 4.50.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Detroit is hitting .256, good for 12th in the league. The Tigers hold a .433 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .332, which is good for 9th in baseball. They rank 14th in MLB with 8.7 hits per game. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .280 with an on-base percentage of .378. He has 56 hits this season in 200 at bats with 32 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .460 and an OPS+ of 125. Justin Upton is hitting .265 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .352. He has totaled 61 hits and he has driven in 43 men in 230 at bats. His OPS+ is 127 while his slugging percentage is at .500. The Tigers have 585 hits, including 128 doubles and 83 home runs. Detroit has walked 243 times so far this season and they have struck out 566 times as a unit. They have left 465 men on base and have a team OPS of .765. They score 4.91 runs per contest and have scored a total of 329 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Seattle has a 33-37 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.41, Sam Gaviglio has a 3-1 record and a 1.17 WHIP. He has 24 strikeouts over the 34.1 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 32 hits. He allows 8.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.93. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.50 and they have given up 232 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .243 against the Mariners bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 222 batters and walked 85 opposing hitters. As a team, Seattle allows 9.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 23rd in the league in team earned run average at 4.78. The Mariners pitchers as a team have surrendered 627 base knocks and 329 earned runs this season. They have given up 107 home runs this year, which ranks 1st in Major League Baseball. Seattle as a staff has walked 216 hitters and struck out 504 batters. They give up a walk 3.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.36 while their FIP as a staff is 4.90.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .263, good for 8th in the league. The Mariners hold a .409 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .333, which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 10th in MLB with 9.0 hits per contest. Nelson Cruz comes into this matchup batting .294 with an OBP of .378. He has 68 hits this year along with 53 RBI in 231 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .528 with an OPS+ of 143. Robinson Cano is hitting .286 this season and he has an OBP of .341. He has collected 68 hits in 238 at bats while driving in 40 runs. He has an OPS+ of 118 and a slugging percentage of .471. The Mariners as a unit have 631 base hits, including 117 doubles and 72 homers. Seattle has walked 229 times this year and they have struck out on 547 occasions. They have had 489 men left on base and have an OPS of .742. They have scored 4.73 runs per game and totaled 331 runs this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox vs. Royals
Play; Royals -104
I really like the value here with the Royals at basically a pick'em at home against the Red Sox. Kansas City is red-hot right now, having won 7 of their last 8 and still have plenty of work to do to get back in the playoff race with an overall record of 33-35. I like their chances here against Boston, who is getting way too much respect here with Hector Velazquez on the mound. Not to mention they are in a bit of a letdown spot after a huge series against the Astros over the weekend. This will be Velazquez's second career start. The first was back on May 18th at Oakland, where he allowed a below-average A's offense to score 6 runs on 9 hits (3 HRs) in 5 innings of work.
Kansas City scored 7 runs on 10 hits in yesterday's win over the Angels. That was the 6th time in their last 8 games that the Royals scored at least 7 runs. Decent chance they reach that mark again. The key here is keeping Boston's offense in check and I like the Royals chances of doing that with the red-hot Jason Hammel on the mount, who is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.885 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
Larry Wallace
Dodgers -1½ -140
Love the Dodgers here. Kershaw hit a 'spped bump' on May 28 vs, the Cubs (lasted just 4 1/3 innings and allowed four ERs on 11 hits!) but has been back to his Cy Young Award-winning form over the last three outings. He's allowed a total of only four ERs over 21 innings (1.71 ERA). Wheeler sat out 2015 and 2016 while recovering from elbow surgery and is making his first career start against Los Angeles. In contrast, Kershaw is 8-1 with a 1.49 ERA against the Mets in 13 career starts (Dodgers are 11-2). Dodgers 3B Justin Turner has hit safely in each of his last 13 games and is batting .385 on the season. New York 3B Wilmer Flores is 3-for-27 over his last seven games.
Jack Jones
Red Sox vs. Royals
Play; Royals -105
The Kansas City Royals have been flying under the radar while playing their best baseball of the season of late. They are 7-1 in their last eight games overall, and their offense has come alive in scoring at least 7 runs in six of those wins.
This is a tough spot for the Red Sox after beating the Astros on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball last night, and now they'll in line for a letdown. Hector Velazquez will be making just his second start of the season after giving up 6 earned runs, 3 homers and 11 base runners over 5 innings of a 3-8 loss to the A's on May 18th.
Jason Hammel has really turned it around of late and is pitching his best ball of the season right now. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Royals are 5-0 in their last five after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Kansas City is 6-1 in its last seven vs. a right-handed starter. The Royals are 6-2 in their last eight meetings with Boston.
Dennis Macklin
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals -109
Tanner Roark has every average LT numbers against the Marlins except for his last three starts where he's 2-1 since Sept 20th last year allowing just four earned runs in 18 2/3 innings of work. The loss was a 1-0 decision to Jose Fernandez in his last start. Justin Nicolino is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.00+ LT against the Nats but he's been rock solid at home this year and the series has for the most part been low scoring. Looking for the Nats to get to Nicolino and the Fish pen late enroute to a 5-2 type of victory.
John Martin
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Blue Jays -114
Marco Estrada has been at his best on the road this season with a 4.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven starts. He has struck out 92 batters in 81 1/3 innings this season. Estrada is up against a team in the Rangers that he has owned throughout his career. He is 4-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in seven starts against Texas. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is making just his third start of the season for the Rangers. He has struck out only 4 batters in 11 2/3 innings this year. Toronto is 11-2 when revenging a loss where they scored one or fewer runs this season. The Rangers are 6-20 in their last 26 vs. AL East teams. The Blue Jays are 13-4 in their last 17 meetings in Texas. Toronto is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.
Dave Price
Cubs -1½ -105
The Chicago Cubs should have not problem winning by 2 runs or more against the San Diego Padres, who are just 11-24 on the road this season, hitting .225 and scoring 3.7 runs per game. The Padres are only hitting .224 and scoring 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters. Lefty Jon Lester is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 8 home starts this year. Lester is also 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. San Diego. Lester's teams are 42-6 as a home favorite of -200 or more in his career, and his teams are winning by 3.2 runs per game on average in this situation.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston -113 over KANSAS CITY
Boston signed Hector Velazquez in February 2017 after he pitched seven seasons in Mexico. A consistent strike-thrower, he has been mostly a starter in his pro career. The athletic right-hander owns a deceptive delivery that messes with hitters’ timing. His fastball only touches 92-93 at maximum, but he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He also has the ability to cut and sink it, thus giving him a groundball option. Velazquez uses both a slider and curveball, though neither generates many swings and misses. His change-up exhibits splitter action and is tough to make hard contact against. He throws any pitch in any count and his feel for pitching gives him value at this level. Velazquez takes Brian Johnson’s spot in the rotation for now. He has done a good job in his 49 innings at AAA-Pawtucket controlling walks and home runs (0.2 hr/9), but has not yet shown those skills in his limited 2017 time in the majors (three BB, three HR in 8.1 IP). Still, his .189 oppBA in the minors stick out and this will be his second time being called up. Often, the second call-up is much better than the first. Aside from that, when we can fade Jason Hammel in an evenly priced game, pencil us in.
In 13 starts covering 71 innings, Hammel has a weak BB/K split of 24/55. He also has a weak batted ball profile of 34% grounders, 22% line-drives and 43% fly-balls. Throw in an appalling 1.47 WHIP and a 5.09 xERA and you start to get a true picture of just how ineffective Jason Hammel truly is. His 5.05 ERA is right on the money. Hammel’s ERA/xERA combo along with pretty much everything else says nothing has changed in his weak profile and there is no reason for optimism either. Below average skills across the board dominates this profile so we’ll attack it at this bargain price.
Cincinnati +134 over TAMPA BAY
Scott Feldman may or may not pitch well here but this is a pitcher’s park that suits him well. Feldman has a nice BB/K split of 7/27 over his last 34 innings and he’s pitching into the sixth inning with regularity. If things don’t work out well, so be it, but as value players, Cinci’s chances of winning here have to be considered just as good as the Rays’ chances so we’ll gladly step in. The price here is inflated because the Reds have dropped nine in a row but this team is too good to be losing at this pace. This is a great chance for the Reds to get off the mattress.
Jake Odorizzi’s profile keeps regressing. His fly-ball rate has ticked up again and is now at 42%. HR’s allowed are more persistent than ever, as he’s allowed at least one jack in nine straight games and damage inflicted by RHBs is once again on the upswing. Yet despite his unimpressive dominant starts/disaster starts splits, Odorizzi has still managed to retain sub-4 ERA, eat innings and rack up some wins. His good control and upper hand versus lefties keeps his head above water, but this is really an average pitcher that has way more value taking back a price than spotting one. Incidentally, the Reds have more speed, more power, a better defense, a better bullpen and a better offense than the Rays. Yeah, we’ll bite.
OAKLAND +136 over Houston
For whatever reason, the A’s are an entirely different team at home. Remarkably, Oakland has nine lousy wins on in 34 road games but at home, they’re an impressive 22-13. The A’s are a significant home pup here because the Astronauts are in and because they have a second time starter going named Daniel Gossett going, who was blown up in Miami (3.1 IP – 6H – 6ER) last week in his first start of the year. You may have noticed that was on the road.
While Gossett lacks a true plus pitch, average-to-above-average command of four average-to-above-average pitches allows the former second-rounder’s (2014) overall profile to play up. He’s moved quickly through the Athletics system while averaging 2.7 BB’s/9 and 8.0 K’s/9 rates and has kept the ball on the ground (49.7% in 2017). Gossett's above-average fastball comes in around 93 MPH and features glove-side run and stays low in the zone. He also has a slider and a curve, with the slider morphing into more of a cutter now in the high 80s, as well as an above-average change, which can be a swing-and-miss pitch for him. The 24-year-old's delivery is smooth and clean, and he sequences his pitches well. Furthermore, Gossett has proven to be durable, tallying 27 starts in each of his last two seasons. Viewed separately, there’s nothing really plus in Gossett’s profile that would project him beyond the back of a rotation, but put it all together and he’s got a solid No. 3 starter’s upside. He did struggle out of the gate this season with a .271 oppBA and 6.27 ERA over his first four starts, but got things back on track with a .203 oppBA and 1.54 ERA over the month of May. He figures to be a little more settled here after his first MLB start.
At the ripe age of 30, Brad Peacock has come out of nowhere to raise some eyebrows with 58 K’s in 39 innings to go along with a 3.00 ERA. Peacock has been around (without success) since 2011. He’s been up and down between the minors and majors more times than his mom would like to remember. His best year was in 2014 when he made 24 starts and posted a 4.72 ERA. He went 4-9 that year with six pure quality starts.
Our notes on him coming into this year were as follows: Stayed healthy all year but skills in AAA were hardly a step forward. Walks remain an issue, stagnant K-rate now subpar in today's K-friendly age and swing and miss rate hints it will stay that way. Late-season MLB "success" a product of line-drive% fluke. Recent xERAs confirm that this former bright prospect has lost his shine.
Peacock is dealing it but we’re not going to allow five starts to override six years of poor performances. Yeah, some guys kick it into gear at age 30 but there are usually signs of a breakout. In Peacock’s case, there were no signs of this. In trying to study his form, we noticed that Peacock has lowered his arm slot, causing more spin on the ball but the results should not be this dramatic. Now that there is film out on Peacock after that change in delivery, there is a great chance that MLB hitters will adjust and turn him back into the below ordinary pitcher he’s always been. What we know for sure is that the A’s win at home and are undervalued again.
TEXAS +108 over Toronto
Talk about perseverance and one need not look past Rangers starter today, Austin Bibens-Dirkx. In early May, the 32-year-old was rewarded with his first ever promotion to the big leagues. Bibens-Dirkx has been a weary traveler since signing as a 16th-round pick of the Mariners in 2006. He was released in early 2009 and latched on with an independent league team before the Cubs signed him later in the year. He has also pitched in the Nationals, Rockies and Blue Jays organizations, as well as other independent leagues, most recently in 2016. He has a versatile, durable arm that allows him to contribute in a number of roles. He has been both a starter and reliever throughout his career and has been remarkably healthy. None of his pitches grade out as above average, though he mixes his deep repertoire well. His fastball sits between 87-92 mph and he complements it with a cutter, slider, curveball and change-up. Bibens-Dirkx has been a consistent strike-thrower and can locate his fastball to both sides of the plate. Because he lacks a true put-away pitch, his strikeout rate has been fringy at best. In 25 innings since his call-up over five relief appearances and two starts, Bibens-Dirkx has struck out just 13 batters. His 3.28 ERA is not going to hold up, as his xERA is 4.98. However, he’s kept the Rangers in every game. He’s paid his dues and he’s playing with house money now. If he gets blown up, so be it but we’ll take our chances with this four-pitch pitcher and the Rangers as a home dog.
After reeling off eight quality starts in his first 11 outings this season, Marco Estrada has hit a severe rough patch by lasting a combined 12.2 innings over three straight losses with a 12.08 ERA and 2.45 WHIP. In two of those starts, Estrada did not make it out of the fourth inning. He allowed 12 hits and six runs in 3.1 innings in his last start and allowed another nine hits and seven runs in 3.1 innings in his start against the Yanks. He’s been tagged for 28 hits (four jacks) over his last 12.2 innings. We hate to say we told you so, but we told you so. Estrada has ridden a wave of extreme luck since he joined the Blue Jays three seasons ago. He’s a fringe average pitcher with a great changeup but everything else in his arsenal is weak and well below average. The difference now is that batters are going up there looking for one pitch (the change) because they know it’s coming. Estrada is unique in that he throws that change more than any pitcher in baseball and he throws it more than once per every AB. Estrada’s fastball average is 89 MPH. His fly-ball rate is 45%, which is one of the worst rates in the game. His xERA is over his last six starts is 6.11 and over his incredible two-year luck run, it was 5.27. What’s wrong with Marco Estrada may be on the minds of fans across Canada but there is nothing wrong with him at all. He’s just gone back to being Marco Estrada, a pitcher that was demoted to the Brewers bullpen before the Jays picked him up and that didn’t even make the Toronto rotation when he first auditioned. The fade continues.
Bruce Marshall
Giants at Braves
Pick: Braves
It's a bit of a tough sell to back the Braves with R.A. Dickey, who was b;lasted by the Nats in his last outing and has an ERA at 5.35. But it's more difficult to justify laying a price on the road with the reeling Giants, who have lost six straight and are now an astounding 19 1/2 games out of the NL West lead and on course to lose 103 games. Johnny Cueto is not pitching like an ace, either, surrendering 5 homers in his last three starts and 16 thru just 86 2/3 IP this season. Moreover, let's not forget to mention the Giants' 12-27 road mark.
Buster Sports
Giants at Braves
Play: Over 9.5
The SF Giants come to Atlanta to start a 3 game series against the Braves and we will be on the OVER in this one and here is why. The starting pitchers for tonight's game are for the Giants RH Johnny Cueto (5-6, 4.57 ERA) and he faces the Braves RH R.A. Dickey (4-5, 5.35 ERA) Cueto has not had the start to 2017 that he would have liked and things are not getting any better of late. He is sporting a 5.40 ERA with a WHIP of 1.86.in his last 3 starts.The Braves have been scoring lots of runs of late and that will not be good for a struggling Cueto. As for Dickey he too has been terrible of late sporting a nasty 7.27 ERA in his last 3 starts. SunTrust Park is quickly becoming a hitters ball park and tonight will be no different as the runs come early and often. Backing our selection is the fact that the OVER is 8-2-2 in the Giants last 12 games following a loss and the fact that the OVER is 4-1 in Dickeys last 5 home starts.
Cal Sports
San Francisco at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +124
SF line too high because reputation of Johnny Cueto who is 5-6 this year with a 4.57 ERA (3-4 away 4.88 ERA). RA Dickey 3-1 at home (tm 5-2) with a 3.74 ERA. Giants just 12-26 away this year and riding a 6 game losing streak overall.