DAVE COKIN
GIANTS AT PIRATES
PLAY: GIANTS -1.5
Two teams in completely opposite directions here. The Giants have won eight straight, the Pirates have lost five in a row and are 1-11 in their last 12. So it’s pretty obviously a spot where it’s Giants or pass, as I have no desire to fade the hot favorite nor try to score with the ice cold dog. Adding in the pitching makes it a play on the big chalk side.
Madison Bumgarner is in great form, and that’s something I doubt I’ve ever said about Jeff Locke. A lot of the team data is pretty close as far as the overall data goes, but not surprisingly, the current form favors the San Francisco side. There’s even the small scheduling bonus, with the Pirates traveling home after playing the Sunday night game.
There isn’t any line value here, as laying a runs line and not getting an underdog price is definitely not what would be termed a sharp move. But I’m getting an elite #1 starter against a guy who’s actually not even a #5 on his numbers, and the team form pushed this one into the play column for me. I’ll rely on MadBum and will spot the -1.5 with the Giants.
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -121
Cleveland has won 8 of 10 as a home favorite from -125 to -150 and they are averaging over 5 runs per game here at home. Tampa Bay has lost 16 of 25 vs winning teams and was just swept at home by SF. Home favorites off a home favored win at -140 or higher that scored 4 or less runs and had 10+ hits are 7-0 since 2004 vs a team like Tampa off a home loss. Short sample but effective none the less. Smyly for Tampa ha a 5.13 road era and a 8.04 era in his last 3 starts. Tomlin for the Indians is 5-1 at home and has a solid 1.83 era over his last 3 starts. Look for Cleveland to take the opener.
Mike Lundin
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -156
The Chicago Cubs will host NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals for the opener of a three-game series Monday night. Look for the Cubs to take tonight's contest behind John Lackey.
Lackey (7-2, 2.66 ERA) will make his third career start against the team with which he spent the previous 1 1/2 seasons before joining Chicago during the offseason. He's held the Cardinals to three runs on eight hits with 20 Ks in 14 innings already this year. Lackey has been outstanding home at Wrigley all year, going 4-1 with an 1.66 ERA in six starts.
The Cardinals turn to Jaime Garcia (4-6, 3.93 ERA). The left-hander has been reached for nine runs (eight earned) on 21 hits with three homers while covering just 11 innings in his last two turns. He allowed two runs on four hits and four walks in five innings of a 2-1 home loss to the Cubs on April 19.
The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Cardinals are 0-4 in Garcia's last four starts vs. Cubs. Cardinals are 2-7 in the last nine meetings overall.
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -122
Edges - Indians: Josh Tomlin 2-0 home career team starts in this series, and 7-1 home team starts and 8-2 team starts at night this season. Rays: Drew Smyly 1-3 career team starts in this series, including 0-1 here, and 6.87 ERA with 1.61 WHIP last seven overall team starts. With Tomlin in sparkling current KW form with 27 K’s and 6 BB’s his last six starts, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Art Aronson
Mariners vs. Tigers
Play: Over 10
The visitors turn to Nathan Karns (5-2, 4.06 ERA) who struck out eight while giving up two runs off four hits and two walks over five innings vs. the Rays on Wednesday. Karns lasted just five innings and longevity continues to be his biggest issue. Note that Karns owns a pedestrian 4.66 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Mike Pelfrey (1-7, 4.79) who was shelled for four runs off seven hits and a pair of walks in a loss to the White Sox on Wednesday, managing to strike out just a single batter. Unfortunately for Pelfrey, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s just 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA in Detroit thus far. With these two volatile starters going head-to-head on Monday night, the OVER does indeed become a very legitimate investment opportunity.
Matt Josephs
Arizona at Philadelphia
Play: Under 9
I told myself that anytime the Phillies play in a game with a total above 8 that I'd have to consider the under. I understand the circumstances with two mediocre to poor starting pitchers, but the Phillies offense is epically bad. They have scored three runs or less in six straight and seven of their last nine. Shelby Miller threw 12 innings of rehab in class-A advanced ball and he picked up 19 strikeouts to just one walk. Miller has good stuff and may have needed the time off to realize it. It's a getaway game for both so we may see some starters take a seat. Jeremy Hellickson is 4-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 starts for Philly. He'll have the tougher assignment of the two although once again, I think we may see a starter or two sit as Arizona has the series in hand. Both bullpens are pretty meh, but their better arms should be available. I think this one should go under the total.
Brandon Shively
Arizona at Philadelphia
Play Arizona +106
I like Arizona here on Monday Afternoon. The only thing that is preventing me from releasing them as a Premium pick is the unknown expectations of Shelby Miller. I say that because Miller is making his first start since coming off the DL. Inside team sources have said that Miller looked good in his AAA rehab starts and in his bullpen sessions. I honestly think that Miller will come back strong and turn his season around.
I watched Shelby Miller pitch in numerous games this season. He actually pitched decent the majority of the time in my opinion. His problem was not being able to escape the ‘big’ inning and pitch out of trouble. Facing a Phillies team that can also be called the ‘Bad News Bears’ right now should be just what the doctor ordered for Miller as the Phillies have lost 21 of their last 26 games overall.
The Phillies have now lost six straight games and haven’t scored more than 2 runs in their last five games. They are hitting .197 as a team over their last seven games. Clearly, this is a favorable spot for Miller and one to help regain his confidence. Miller has a career 2.54 ERA/ 1.11 WHIP in 7 starts vs the Phillies.
Jeremy Hellickson takes the mound for the Phillies. He is 0-2 career vs the DBacks having not made it past the 5th inning in either start. The Phillies have lost his last five starts overall . Hellickson has a 7.41 ERA for the month of June. He has only recorded 10 strikeouts while walking nine batters and allowing five home runs. The Phillies are only giving him 3 runs of support in his seven home starts.
Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .385 over the last week with 3 homeruns. Jake Lamb, who backs up Goldschmidt batting clean up, is on fire this series going 7-for-13 with a homerun and 3 RBI. Jean Segura didn’t start yesterday, but has reached base in eight of his last nine games he has started.
With the Phillies having lost 81% of their last 26 games overall and being able to fade them today while getting plus money is a no brainer to me as I feel this is a great value play and one that is definitely worth a wager.
Brandon Shively
Arizona vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Arizona
I like Arizona here on Monday Afternoon. The only thing that is preventing me from releasing them as a Premium pick is the unknown expectations of Shelby Miller. I say that because Miller is making his first start since coming off the DL. Inside team sources have said that Miller looked good in his Minor League rehab starts and in his bullpen sessions. I honestly think that Miller will come back strong and turn his season around.
I watched Shelby Miller pitch in numerous games this season. He actually pitched decent the majority of the time in my opinion. His problem was not being able to escape the ‘big’ inning and pitch out of trouble. Facing a Phillies team that can also be called the ‘Bad News Bears’ right now should be just what the doctor ordered for Miller as the Phillies have lost 21 of their last 26 games overall.
The Phillies have now lost six straight games and haven’t scored more than 2 runs in their last five games. They are hitting .197 as a team over their last seven games. Clearly, this is a favorable spot for Miller and one to help regain his confidence. Miller has a career 2.54 ERA/ 1.11 WHIP in 7 starts vs the Phillies.
Jeremy Hellickson takes the mound for the Phillies. He is 0-2 career vs the DBacks having not made it past the 5th inning in either start. The Phillies have lost his last five starts overall . Hellickson has a 7.41 ERA for the month of June. He has only recorded 10 strikeouts while walking nine batters and allowing five home runs. The Phillies are only giving him 3 runs of support in his seven home starts.
Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .385 over the last week with 3 homeruns. Jake Lamb, who backs up Goldschmidt batting clean up, is on fire this series going 7-for-13 with a homerun and 3 RBI. Jean Segura didn’t start yesterday, but has reached base in eight of his last nine games he has started.
With the Phillies having lost 81% of their last 26 games overall and being able to fade them today while getting plus money is a no brainer to me as I feel this is a great value play and one that is definitely worth a wager.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The 38-30 Indians and 31-36 Rays are coming off contrasting weekend series. Cleveland swept a three-game home series from the White Sox over the weekend, while Tampa Bay got swept at home in a three-game series with the San Francisco Giants. The two teams open a three-game series Monday night in Cleveland and the pitching matchup of Drew Smyly (2-7, 4.75 ERA) facing Josh Tomlin (8-1, 3.27 ERA) features two players headed in opposite directions. Yes, Smyly showed some improvement his last time out after skipping a start to rest, when he allowed two runs on four hits with 12 strikeouts over 6.2 innings in a no-decision. However, one CAN’T ignore that in his previous four starts starts Smyly was 0-3 (team was 1-3) with a 8.44 ERA. Opposing teams have hit .308 against him over his last five starts!
In stark contrast, Cleveland’s Tomlin is serving up (at least so far) the best year of his career. Tomlin has walked one or zero batters in 11 of his 12 starts and his average of 0.85 walks per nine innings is the best in the American League by a wide margin. He makes his 13th start tonight with the Indians having gone 10-2 (plus-$805) though his first 12 (moneyline ranks 7th among all MLB starters). Tomlin has permitted two or fewer runs in EIGHT of those 12 starts this season, including last time out as he gave up one in seven innings of a no decision against Kansas City.
Smyly is 2-2 with a 3.93 ERA in 14 career appearances vs Cleveland and in six career starts at Progressive Field he owns a 5.73 ERA. Meanwhile, not only have the Indians been victorious in 10 of 12 games started by Josh Tomlin in 2016 but Cleveland also boasts 14 come-from-behind wins overall. Cleveland has posted a 20-12 home record while averaging a healthy 5.50 RPG. Stick with the home team.
Bruce Marshall
Seattle at Detroit
Pick: Detroit
Not quite sure why the price favors a fading Seattle team that has lost 15 of 23. True Detroit has some pitching issues but facing the red-hot bats of the Royals over the weekend had something to do with those recent troubles. Don't be deceived by the subpar numbers of Tigers starter Mike Pelfrey, who has pitched adequately in 6 of his last 7 starts, while the Mariners have lost the last three games started by Nathan Karns, who hasn't pitched beyond the fifth inning of any of those.
Jim Feist
Orioles at Rangers
Pick: Over
A battle of first place teams here on Monday as the AL East leading Orioles take on the AL West leading Rangers. The O's are holding onto a one-game lead over the Red Sox and have won two-straight games. Baltimore is now 26-12 at home. While the starting pitching has been hit and miss, the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball. The offense has been very good, ranking 1st in home runs (105) and 8th in scoring. Kevin Gausman starts today. Guasman still looking for that first win at 0-4 with a 4.14 ERA. The bright spot for Guasman is his KO to walk ratio of 57 to 17. The Rangers are running away with the West, now leading the Mariners by 8.5 games. The Rangers have won six straight, including a 3-game sweep of the Cardinals. Derek Holland starts today with a 5-5 record and 5.14 ERA. Holland has been hit hard his last two starts, allowing nine runs over just 8.2 innings with five walks. Both these teams among the best hitting clubs and with two shaky pitchers on the hill,
Dave Essler
Arizona / Philadelphia Over 9
I don't think this will go to 8.5 - but anything is possible. Both pitchers fly ball pitchers, one coming off the DL and one who's fly ball rate has been increasing. Phillies pen sucks - although it's the "Phillies" they've been playing a ton of over mainly because they're giving up a lot of runs - that could continue, or they could contribute. I'd like to wait for lineups but don't have that luxury and at 9 it's a push, not a loss of it lands on 9 - anything else would be a win or a loss regardless - the weather is great - Jim Joyce (HP umpire) can go either way. He's been an under ump this year but far more so (0-5) in the AL than the NL. And interestingly enough the lines' moving towards the Phillies (perhaps the auto-fade of a pitcher coming off the DL) so clearly many think either they'll score or Hellickson won't give any up. I would think the former has a better chance of happening.
Power Sports
Seattle vs. Detroit
Pick: Seattle
Both of these teams lost by identical 2-1 scores Sunday. For Detroit, that leaves them a game below .500 as they just lost three in a row at Kansas City. The Mariners have now dropped six of eight, including B2B losses in Boston. So, something will have to give here. I'll take the club that's been better overall in 2016.
The M's are still #2 in the A.L in run differential (+54), so you'd figure they'd have a better record at this point (only 3 games over .500). That scoring margin is better than that of the first place Rangers, whom they trail by 8.5 games. The big issue right now in the Pacific Northwest is a starting rotation that's dealing w/ multiple injuries, the most critcial one being Felix Hernandez's. That puts some pressure on tonight's starter, Nick Karns, who has 77 K's in 71 IP this season, a solid number. Though I'd like to see him work a little deeper into games, the bottom line is Karns has given up 3 ER or less in 9 of his previous 10 starts.
Detroit has been giving up a ton of runs lately - as in 7.7 rpg their last seven contests (opponents batting .329!). The biggest offender there has been a bullpen which has a 5.00 ERA. Five of their last six opponents have finished the game w/ at least 10 hits. Tonight's starter Mike Pelfrey has a 1.710 WHIP in 13 starts this season and has won just one time. Seattle has been a surprisingly good offensive team this year, ranking 2nd in the league in runs scored and 3rd in MLB in home runs!
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers +111
The Texas Rangers are showing solid value as small home underdogs to the Baltimore Orioles tonight. There's no way the Rangers should be underdogs here with the way they have been playing of late. They've won six straight games coming in.
I also believe the Rangers have the edge on the mound tonight. Derek Holland has been solid at home all season, going 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in five starts. Holland is 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore as well.
Kevin Gausman is sill in search of his first victory of the season. He's 0-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.826 WHIP in his last three. Gausman is alo 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in six road starts this year.
Texas is 14-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line after four or more consecutive road games this season. The Orioles are 3-11 in Gausman's last 14 road starts. The Rangers are 51-22 in their last 73 home games. Texas is 26-9 in Holland's last 35 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox -1½ -106
Boston is worth a look on the 1.5 run line tonight against the White Sox. Chicago is in a complete free fall right now and just got swept in a 3-game series at Cleveland over the weekend. Boston should have no problem winning here by at least 2 runs with the big edge they have one the mound. The Red Sox will send out Steven Wright, who is 8-4 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 13 starts. Chicago on the other hand will have Miguel Gonzalez on the mound, who has a 4.89 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in 8 starts. White Sox just got done playing 3 straight series against division opponents and are 0-8 in their last 8 after playing 6 straight against division rivals and have lost these games y an average of 2.4 runs/game.