Jimmy Boyd
Houston Astros -146
Houston has won two straight and four of five overall and I look for them to continue their strong play with a win at home against the Angels tonight. The Astros will have a huge edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Doug Fister against Jhoulys Chacin.
Fister is 7-3 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.225 WHIP over 13 starts. He's quietly been one of the better starters in baseball over the last two months. Keep in mind he was 1-3 with a 5.56 ERA in the month of April. He then posted a 2.84 ERA in May and has a 1.40 ERA in three June starts.
Chacin has been heading in the opposite direction. After finishing up with a solid 3.27 ERA in April, he's posted a 5.23 ERA in May and a 7.04 ERA in June. He's 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA overall and is just 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA in 8 road starts.
Fister will be working on a full 5 days of rest and that's important to note, as he's 18-4 in his last 22 starts against the money line when pitching on 5 or 6 days of rest. Astros are also 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record and 9-0 in Fister's last 9 starts.
Michael Alexander
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -156
Chicago starter, Lackey looks to extend his unbeaten streak to seven starts after settling for a no-decision at Washington on Tuesday, when he allowed two runs and four hits in six innings. The 37-year-old Texan has yielded more than two earned runs just once in his last nine turns. Lackey will be making his third career start against the team with which he spent the previous 1 1/2 seasons after going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in the first two both of which took place earlier this year.
Will Rogers
Giants vs. Pirates
Play: Giants -171
The Giants come into Steel Town as winners of eight straight, and they sit 6.5 games clear of the second place Dodgers in the NL West. The Pirates are reeling after losing five straight and 10 of their last 11. I like San Fran to keep the ball rolling here tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Giants send their ace to the mound, and Madison Bumgarner is riding a 10 game unbeaten streak. The Mad Bum is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA in six road starts in 2016. Jeff Locke will go for the Pirates, and he's got ugly numbers versus Frisco.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Giants hitters have a combined .343 average versus Locke, and Brandon Belt is 3-for 4 against the southpaw. Belt leads the team with 10 home runs and a .305 batting average. He's gone deep five times in June already.
3. X-Factor - The Giants are18-6 in their last 24 road games.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers +130
The Detroit Tigers are hungry for a victory after losing 3 straight to fall back below .500 by one game on the season. We are getting them at a nice price here as home dogs to the Seattle Mariners. Mike Pelfrey has pitched better of late, going 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA in his last 3 starts. Pelfrey sports a 2.03 ERA in his 2 lifetime starts vs. Seattle as well. I'm not quite sure how Nate Karns is getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers tonight. Karns sports a 4.66 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in 7 road starts this year. He's also 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Mariners are 2-7 in their last 9 road games. The Tigers are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +197 over Arizona
Note the early start time here. Jeremy Hellickson will attempt to stop his three consecutive disaster starts streak when he takes on the Diamondbacks here. LHB have found success versus Hellickson with a .954 OPS, but the D-Backs heavy hitters (Goldschmidt, Tomas, Segura) all bat from the right side. Hellickson's changeup creates a 28.4% swing and miss rate. Hellickson owns a marginal 4.46 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 38.1 innings at home so far in 2016 but those marks have a lot of downward potential given his skills. A 35% hit rate and 18% hr/f have combined to inflate his surface stats. Risk-averse bettors should consider him a must-play on the road when he’s priced high, as both his stats (3.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and skills are good there. However, we’re willing to roll with Hellickson and the Phillies here at Citizen's Bank Park because Shelby Miller gets back to work and he might just be the worst starter in baseball.
Shelby Miller is in fact the worst starter in MLB against LH bats, and it's not even close. Check out his horrible skills against them: 3.1 K’s/9, 7.5 BB’s/9 xERA of 7.22. And he's not worthy against RHers either. The Phillies have at least six left-handed bats in the lineup and this is certainly the day they have a chance to put up some runs. Miller makes his first start since May 24. He made two rehab starts at High-A ball, which was done purposely to try and get him his confidence back. Someone is going to lose their job for going after this guy and giving away some fine pieces to Atlanta to get him. Miller brings a 1.86 WHIP, a 7.09 ERA, 6.03 xERA and a BB/K split into this start of 29/30 in just 46 innings. Yeah, the Phillies are going bad and yeah there is risk in this play because of that but at this price against Miller, the reward is worth the risk.
Tampa Bay +114 over CLEVELAND
In what's been a somewhat limited sample size, Josh Tomlin has quietly managed to string together two straight seasons of strong skills at the MLB level. Tomlin’s elite control will keep him in games but his xERA of 4.07 doesn't project a full breakout and neither does his 86 MPH heat, 40%/39% groundball/fly-ball split or 6% swing and miss rate. Truth be told, Josh Tomlin is living the Marco Estrada charmed life only Tomlin’s control is about 40% better than Estrada’s. Josh Tomlin’s hard hit ball % of 36.6% is the second highest on the board today with only Shelby Miller having a worse mark. Tomlin’s misleading 3.27 ERA is in line for a correction that is not in his favor.
Then there’s Drew Smyly, who has posted a 7.07 ERA over his last five starts. Does anyone realize how ridiculous that ERA is and how good/bad luck plays a huge role in a pitcher’s fate from game to game and month to month? Smyly is the straight goods. He has a BB/K split of 7/31 over his last 28 innings. He also has a Clayton Kershaw like swing and miss rate of 18% over his last three starts and an overall rate now of 13%. Smyly has very good control and a great strikeout rate. He absolutely stifles lefties. His low xERA is also a consistent part of his profile and now he’s a dog to Josh Tomlin because the luck pendulum is swinging in Tomlin’s favor and not Smyly’s.
Josh Tomlin is 31-years old and has been up and down from the minors his entire career. He’s by far the second best starter in this matchup. The Indians recent form and Tomlin’s surface ERA has the wrong side favored here.
L.A. Angels +137 over HOUSTON
The Angels lose so many games simply because they’re reaching into the depths of the scrap heap to try and find some capable starters to hold them over. The Halos offense is very capable of scoring runs, as evidenced by their .268 team batting average over the past 20 games, which ranks ninth in MLB. Furthermore, many of those 20 games were played at pitchers parks such as Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, the Oakland Coliseum and their own home, the Big A in Anaheim, where they played nine of those 20 games.
Jhoulys Chacin probably gives the Angels a better chance of winning than any of their other starters. Chacin owns a 5.00 ERA after 12 starts but most of it is due to poor fortune. As a starter who has never posted anything that sticks out over the course of a season, it's easy to be pessimistic with Chacin. However, his skills so far in 2016 have been impressive with 7.5 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9 and 53% groundballs. Chacin is completely dominating RH bats with 10.3 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9 and a 51% GB rate. Chacin’s bad luck shows up in his low 63% strand rate and high 34% hit rate. His cutter is producing a 19% swing and miss rate. The best news is that the Astronauts feature a truly heavy RH lineup. Only three players, Colby Rasmus, Jason Castro and Luis Valbuena, will bat from the left side. That trio is hitting .226 .207 and .244 respectively.
Doug Fister is going a little too good right now. Here’s a guy that has been a very live dog all season so far. Fister started out the year as a +136 pooch against Seattle. His next start he was a +139 dog against Oakland. From there and in order, Fister has been +107, +126, -105, +110, +118, +156 and +139. Right about in the middle of all those games, Fister was a -136 favorite at home against Jesse Hahn and the A’s. He now goes from being a dog in just about every start to being a significant favorite against a formidable opponent. Hell, Fister is a bigger favorite here than he was against the Oakland A’s, a team that was three-hit and shutout by Jared Weaver yesterday. Fister brings a 3.26 ERA and 4.38 xERA into his matchup. He has posted a strong .517 oOPS versus RHB, but his .877 oOPS against LHB could hurt in Minute Maid Park, which inflates LHB HR by 22%. Doug Fister brings 86 MPH heat and a 6% swing and miss rate to this start and for the first time this year, he’s significantly overpriced. Win or lose, this is true value.
Washington +169 over LOS ANGELES
Obviously there isn’t a thing to say about Clayton Kershaw. He’s the best pitcher on the planet and is expected to throw a gem every time he takes the hill. He usually does too. Kershaw has posted a dominant start in 86% of his starts this year. He threw two gems against these Nationals last year too. Kershaw has posted 11.1 K’s/9, the best command in MLB and the best xERA of 2.10. However, the total in this game is u5½ -119 so there is a great chance that we will be looking at a tie or one run game in the late innings. There is also a great chance that the bullpens will decide this one and if it means anything, Washington has the second-best OPS, (.819 OPS) against LHP.
By contrast, the Dodgers have a .676 home OPS (26th). That bodes well for another outstanding starter in Stephen Strasburg, who comes in with 11.4 K’s/9, a 12% swing and miss rate and a 2.83 xERA. Strasburg also carries a 2.11 ERA on the road into this start. His second half performance last year and first 2½ months of this year shows how utterly dominant Strasburg can be. His skills history shows that he is the owner of one of the strongest skill-sets in the game. You can count on one hand the pitchers with the upside that he possesses and he is precisely the type of pitcher to take a chance on against Clayton Kershaw. Stephen Strasburg should NEVER be offered a price like this.
Big Al
Angels vs. Astros
Pick: Astros
Houston RHP Doug Fister is enjoying his return to the American League, where he spent five combined seasons in Seattle and Detroit. Fister is on his way to one of his best seasons ever as the big righty has gone 7-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 13 starts in an Astros uniform so far. He's looking like an AL Pitcher of the Month candidate for June as Fister is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his first three starts coming into tonight. And it has the makings of a great matchup for him as the Angels will send RHP Jhoulys Chacin to the mound for his eighth start since coming to Anaheim. His numbers with the Angels are slightly better than what he did in his first five starts this season as a member of the Braves, but that's not saying much. The month of June has been especially rough on Chacin (7.04 ERA in three starts) and the righty gave up four runs on seven hits in five innings Tuesday against the Twins. The 'Stros are 10-3 in Fister's starts this year.
Chip Chirimbes
Rockies at Marlins
Play: Marlins -102
The Miami Marlins are treating the Rockies like a school of minnows as they have taken the first three of this four-game set and are now 14-5 against the NL West. Colorado will try and change the Marlins momentum with Jorge De La Rosa (3-4, 7.61 ERA) who is 6-5 with a bulging 5.23 ERA in his career against Miami. The Marlins are 61-34 lifetime at home against Colorado and will start Paul Clemens who has two wins in relief against the Rockies and get the win as a starter tonight.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland
Pick: Tampa Bay +119
Tampa Bay had a rough weekend against San Francisco, but they've still won 9 of 15. That included winning two of three as a dog against surging Houston, plus two of three as a dog at Arizona. Rays 3B Evan Longoria has belted eight homers in his last 14 games. Tampa Bay has talented lefty Drew Smyly on the hill, 2-2 with a 3.93 ERA in 14 appearances against Cleveland. For the season Smyly has an 89-19 strikeout to walk ratio in 77+ innings while allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. He comes off a 3-2 win over Seattle striking out 12 in 6+ innings with no walks, four hits. Cleveland is a .500 team the last 12 games, losing four times as chalk. Indians' starter Josh Tomlin is 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA in four career starts against the Rays, making this a great spot for the dog.
Don Best Consensus
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Pick: San Francisco
PIT are 5-17 in their last 22 overall and 1-9 in their last 10! SF are 24-8 in their last 32 games and 18-6 in their last 24 road games. Bumgardner is one of MLB's best bringing in a 1.91 ERA on the season. The Giants are 11-3 when he starts.
Ray Monohan
Seattle / Detroit Over 10
The Mariners and Tigers get set for a weekday series and the Over here has solid value. Nathan Karns goes for Seattle and he continues to struggle on the road. This season, Karns has compiled an ERA of 4.66. He's failed to make quality pitches and has had trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark.
As for Detroit, Pelfrey has struggled at home. He has compiled just a 1-2 record and sits with an ERA of 5.51. Pelfrey was on a roll for a little bit, but has since tapered off and has gone back to struggling.
Some trends to consider. Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 during game 1 of a series. Over is 18-7-2 in Tigers last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Given the circumstances with the starting pitchers here, this is a nice spot to find a lot of runs.
Aaron Toller
Nationals vs. Dodgers
Pick: Over 5.5
Free play for Monday baseball is the over 5.5 runs. When is the last time you seen a 5.5 run posted total jump quickly is this likely gets to 6. I'll take a chance on the over with the heat both pitchers may breakdown late in game.
Bruce Marshall
Texas +107
This is an odd one-game series to make up for an earlier rainout, as the Rangers prepare to hozt the Reds on Tuesday while the O's will return home to face Tampa Bay. What we do know is that Texas is soaring with six wins in a row and off an 8-2 road trip, giving it nine straight series wins. Though starter Derek Holland struggled on the recent road trip, Texas has an MLB-best 22 come-from-behind wins this season, and Birds starter and LSU product Kevin Gausman is still winless this season. Moreover, the red-hot Rangers are 24-10 at home, and the O's are only 14-16 away. So why is Baltimore favored?
Astros -1.5 +138
The Astros have won 9 of 11 at home after Sunday's 6-0 whitewash of the Reds. They've also won nine straight games started by Doug Fister, who hasn't allowed more than two runs in his last five starts. Meanwhile, Halos starter Jhoulys Chacin is not fooling anyone lately as he rarely pitches beyond the fifth inning, allowing 12 runs and 20 hits while walking 8 over his last three starts covering 15 1/3 IP (7.05 ERA and 2.33 WHIP that span).
Bob Balfe
Rockies/Marlins Over 8.5
The Marlins called up a new starter today in Paul Clemens. Clemens struggled last year out of the pen and I don’t think he is ready to be a starter in this league especially going against talent hitters on the Rockies. De La Rosa has been awful this season for the Rockies and on the road his numbers are very weak. The winner of this game should put up 9 runs themselves.
Rob Veno
Los Angeles at Houston
Play: Houston -1.5
Houston is now gaining some traction going 17-8 in its last 25 games and creeping to within 2.5 games of second place Seattle in the AL West and 4.5 games of the AL's second Wild Card spot. Part of the recent surge is due to the pitching of tonight’s starter Doug Fister who has now rattled off six quality starts in his last seven appearances including four straight heading into this game. Over this 44.1 IP span, Fister has gone 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Three weeks ago he faced this Angels team in Anaheim and went 6 innings allowing just 1 earned run. Countering Fister will be Jhoulys Chacin who outings lately have gone in the opposite direction. After closing out May with three quality starts in four trips to the mound, Chacin has pitched poorly in June recording a 7.04 ERA, 1.83 WHIP with eight walks and only six strikeouts. Expect the Astros strikeout prone lineup to feast on Chacin’s pitch to contact trend while Fister tames the LA lineup. Each bullpen is thoroughly rested but Houston carries a major advantage in that category since the Angels relief corps still minus setup man Joe Smith is very capable of yielding middle to late inning run. Lean here will be toward a run line play on the Astros at +145.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers +108
Texas is not getting any respect from the linemaker no matter how many games they win a row (6 in this case) as once again the Rangers are an underdog this time in a home write-in game. Kevin Gausman lasted only three innings at Boston on Wednesday and allowed six runs and seven hits. Baltimore has lost four of his last five starts and Gausman has been touched for 32 hits in 26 1/3 innings. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA on the road and Texas hitters have a combined .802 OPS against him. Derek Holland has four quality starts in a row but has had two subpar outings since. However, Holland is 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA at home and has a .211 opponent batting average against the Orioles the last three years. Baltimore has lost 11 of Gausman's last 14 road starts and Texas has won 22 of its last 28 games overall. The Rangers are the play!