Free Picks for Monday, June 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
REDS AT CARDINALS
PLAY: REDS +135
Brandon Finnegan returns from his rehab stint, and the Reds lefty appears to be completely healthy once again. Finnegan is hoping to gain more consistency with his control. When the southpaw isn’t beating himself wth free passes, he’s a pretty good pitcher.
Michael Wacha might well be pitching for his rotation spot here. Rough sledding for the Cardinals righty of late. Five of Wacha’s last six starts have been mostly mediocre. Wacha has gotten past six innings only once all season, which means an almost guaranteed multiple inning effort by the bullpen every time he pitches.
There’s not much to like with either of these teams. The surprising hot start for the Reds is now a memory and they haven’t been winning much lately. But neither have the Cardinals, and from this vantage point, the Redbirds are more reputation than reality these days. St. Louis is also a poor offensive team vs. lefties, particularly at home where the production has been just plain lousy.
I have to lean to the Reds at the price, and while the game is not currently on my Monday card, it’s getting strong consideration.
Scott Rickenbach
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Phillies +1½
Another one run loss for the Phillies yesterday and this has been a recurring trend throughout the month for Philadelphia. The Phils have found the win column very infrequently but they have been dealt a number of tight, one-run losses. They're a young team that just hasn't gotten over the hump yet as they struggle to win tight games. That is why I am rolling with the run line offering in this one. Sure the big dog price on the money line is enticing but the Phillies are a tough team to trust to win a game like this on the road. However, believe it or not, Philadelphia is a surprising 15-7 their last 22 games at +1.5 runs! The Diamondbacks would be 9-17 their last 26 games at -1.5 runs. As you can see, many of Arizona's wins (just like yesterday's) have been coming by a single run. Even though this game looks like a pitching mismatch on the surface, a deeper look indicates it should prove to be anything but that! Zack Greinke gets the start for the Dbacks and he has given up 12 runs (7 earned) on 21 hits in his 18 innings on the mound spanning his last three starts. As for the Phillies Nick Pivetta, he has settled into a solid rhythm in his last two starts with only 3 runs allowed on just 8 hits while striking out 19 in his 13 innings of work! The Phillies at +1.5 runs are absolutely worth a look in this one!
Ray Monohan
Colorado at San Francisco
Play: Colorado +125
The Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants face off on Monday night, and as underdogs the Rockies have a ton of value. On the mound for the Giants is Jeff Samardzija who comes into this game with a 2-9 record and an ERA of 4.74.
In his last couple starts he has really struggled. In those three starts he has given up 14 runs. One of those starts was against this Rockies team in which he gave up eight earned runs. Some trends to note. Rockies are 7-1 in Marquezs last 8 starts. Giants are 1-7 in Samardzijas last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
I think that the Rockies will have no issues getting to him early and often.
Mike Lundin
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Indians -170
The Cleveland Indians were swept at Minnesota over the weekend, but I like them to bounce back with victory when hosting the Texas Rangers home at Progressive Field Monday night.
Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 2.99 ERA) takes the ball for Cleveland. Cleveland has won eight of his last 10 starts and he's allowed just three runs in 17 2/3 innins through his last three turns. Texas turns to left-hander Cole Hamels (2-0, 3.03 ERA) who will make his first start since April 26 as he's been out with a strained right oblique.
The Indians are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 0-4 in Hamels' last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Darryl Tucholski
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Yankees -151
Despite their struggles (2-10 in their last 10 games) Jordan Montgomery has been a bright spot, 3-0 in his last 4 starts. He also has only allowed 10 ER in his last 33.1 IP. Lefty David Holmber for the Whitesox has hit the 5 IP mark just once, and his pitch count typically sits in the mid 70's.
Ben Burns
Angels vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 9
Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands in this one. Ricky Nolasco (2-9, 5.23 ERA) has been a complete train-wreck this year and he most recently gave up five runs off seven hits with five walks over five innings in an 8-4 loss to New York on Wednesday. Nolasco hasn’t won a game since April and has posted a 6.28 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in that span (he’s just 1-5 with a 4.56 ERA on the road). Rich Hill (4-3, 4.73) has been hit-or-miss of late and while he does come in off a decent outing against the Mets on Wednesday, giving up one run with three walks over five innings, previous to that he’d been rocked for seven runs over four innings in a loss to the Indians (Hill owns a pedestrian 4.09 ERA at home as well).
Marc Lawrence
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Indians -160
Edges - Indians: Carrasco 8-1 team starts at night this season, and 6-1 last seven team starts during June… Rangers: Hamels 1-4 career team starts versus the Tribe, including 0-2 here. With Texas just 4-8 in its last eight games in this park, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Martin Griffiths
Molde vs. Stromsgodset
Play: Over 2½
The odds are not great on this but everything points to over 2.5 goals and the opportunity to make a profit was too tempting to pass on.
Five of Molde last six games have had least three goals in them and three of Stromgodset last five league games have had at least three goals in them.
The last two Stromgodset home games have both been overs and three of Molde last four away games have had at least three goals in them.
Add to that the fact that five of the last eight meetings between these two have had at least three goals in the games and you start to see a pattern developing.
While past results do not guarantee future results they are an indication and the current form of these two teams is to have goals in their games, the head to heads favour goals and I can see no evidence why the goals trend will not continue.
Larry Wallace
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Indians -1½
Carrasco this year is 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA. Hamels hasn't pitched a whole lot this year, since this is the longest time he spent on the DL. The Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a team that has a losing home record. The Indians are 8-1 in their last 9 games when Carrasco takes the mound.
Vic Duke
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox +144
Both teams are struggling but I like the White Sox at home here. Sox are sizzling against lefties --driving in nearly 6 RPG on a near .300 BA. Montgomery is ripe for the taking. Although he's pitched well, he hasn't gone to 6 innings over his last few starts. The Yankees have struggled on the recent road and won't have an easy time here. Sox have split the last 6 games in this series; moreover, NY has lost 11 of the last 16 in Chicago. We'll look for Holmberg, who is comfortable at home at night, to deliver.
Teddy Davis
Cincinnati at St Louis
Play: St Louis -1½
The Cardinals had a great come back last night in which I had them on the RL. While I know this is a quick turn around sometimes after a win like that it's great to get back out there as soon as possible.
Wacha takes the mound who is 3-1 at home this season with a 3.50 ERA. The main key for me here is that he had dominated the Reds for his career. He is 7-1 lifetime with a 2.38 ERA.
Reds counter with Finnegan who I believe is still rusty after three 3 starts. He has only pitched 10 total innings and has had big time struggles with his command walking 9 in those 10 innings. Cardinals should have the confidence after last night to carry this over today.
Mike Anthony
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Yankees -151
The Yanks have gone 2-10 in their last 12 games but I like them in this spot on Monday. Jordan Montgomery has been a bright spot, 3-0 in his last 4 starts. He also has only allowed 10 ER in his last 33.1 IP. Montgomery (5-4, 3.74 ERA overall) takes the ball against the White Sox in Chicago. Montgomery is 3-0 in his four June starts and has pitched to a 2.96 ERA over that span. Lefty David Holmber for the Whitesox has hit the 5 IP mark just once, and his pitch count typically sits in the mid 70's. Take the YANKEES here on the road to get the win.
Will Rogers
Colorado at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies allowed 26 runs in losing the final two games of a home series Wednesday and Thursday against the D'backs. They then visited the Dodgers in LA over the weekend where they got swept in a three-games series, allowing 22 more runs, while scoring a modest seven runs, six of them coming in Sunday's 12-6 loss (Rockies led 5-0 heading into the bottom of the third yesterday!). Colorado has hit its roughest patch of the season (note: Colorado led the NL West by a half-game Tuesday but now trail by 4 1/2 games!) with a five-game losing streak and is hoping things will improve when the Rockies open a three-games series against the struggling Giants Monday night in San Francisco. The Giants are coming off an 8-2 home loss to the New York Mets which gives them 21 losses in the team's last 26 games. San Francisco is 27-51 (an incredible 24 1/2 games back of LA in the NL West) and owns a better record than only the 24-50 Phillies, although the Giants do own MLB's worst moneyline mark at minus-$2787.
The pitching matchup: German Marquez (5-3 & 3.92 ERA) goes for the Rockies and Jeff Samardzija (2-9 & 4.74 ERA) for the Giants. Marquez has pitched well lately, having won five of his last six decisions. In that six-start span, he's given up fewer than two ERs in four (all wins) and exactly two in the other two. Marquez lost his only career start versus the Giants, allowing six runs on 12 hits over 4 1/3 innings at San Francisco last September 27. Samardzija has won only one of his last seven outings, despite allowing fewer than four runs six times in that stretch. However, the lone start in which he surrendered more was a loss at Colorado on June 16, when he was ripped for eight runs on 11 hits over six innings. That leaves Samardzija 0-3 with a 9.33 ERA versus the Rockies this season and 3-5 with a 3.91 ERA in 14 career appearances (10 starts / teams are 5-5)
The pick: The Giants just got swept at home by the Mets (outscored 24-8 in the three games) and now face the struggling Rockies (five straight losses). One of these teams has to win here (Giants have lost 12 of 13) and my bet says it's the home team, with Samardzija long overdue to get some support and a win.
Zack Cimini
Minnesota vs. Boston
Pick: Boston
Lopsided prices aren't typically offered when two pitchers with strong records face each other. Yet, that's the case here as Chris Sale (9-3) takes on Jose Berrios (7-1) and the Twins Monday. The Sox are coming off consecutive losses to the Angels as cracks within their starting pitching have formed. Yet, Chris Sale is as reliable as they get and will lead the Red Sox to victory on Monday.