Power Sports
Yankees vs. White Sox
Pick:Yankees
There can be no denying that the Yankees have hit a rough patch. The Bronx Bombers have fallen back into a first place tie w/ the Red Sox after dropping 10 of their last 12 games. But they still have a +95 run differential that is second best in the American League. That tells me they are likely to turn things around sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, I'm not sure I can say the same for the last place White Sox, who are now 10 games below .500 after getting swept here at home - by the A's - over the weekend.
After being pretty thoroughly dominated the first two games, Chicago was in position to win Sunday as they held a 2-0 lead entering the seventh inning. But that is when things started to unravel. Oakland scored five times over the final three innings. Getting swept by the A's, at home no less, is really embarrassing. Consider the fact that Oakland has one of the worst road records in all of baseball and has been outscored by an average of 1.5 rpg there. The White Sox have now dropped six of seven themselves.
Tonight's pitching matchup features yet another troubled White Sox starter, David Holmberg, who has yet to last more than five innings in any of his five starts this season. I expect the Yankees' Jordan Montgomery, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts, to completely outduel him. Earlier in the year, Montgomery threw six innings against Chicago and allowed just three hits.
Jim Feist
Angels at Dodgers
Pick: Under
Dodger stadium is a huge park, great for pitchers, and the Angels lose the DH for this interleague series, still without star offensive player Mike Trout. The LA Angels are 10-2 under the total when Ricky Nolasco starts on the road, plus 17-7-1 under in all his starts. the Dodgers go with Rich Hill, who has 43 strikeouts in 40 innings. Hill (4-3) struck out eight Mets over five innings Wednesday, giving up just a single run on four hits and three walks in an 8-2 victory. And the Under is 7-2 in Hill's last 9 home starts.
Larry Ness
Yankees vs. White Sox
Pick:Yankees
The Yanks were rolling until mid-June but have lost 10 of their last 12 (now 40-33) to drop into a virtual tie for first place with the 41-34 Boston Red Sox. "We're still tied for first place in our division," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "We've had a pretty tough, poor two weeks." New York heads to Chicago to open a four-game series with the White Sox on Monday night. Chicago has lost six of its last seven and at 32-42, sits in last place in the AL Central, 7 1/2 games back of the first-place Twins.
A pair of lefties square off tonight, Jordan Montgomery (5-4, 3.74 ERA) for New York and David Holmberg (1-1, 2.84 ERA) for Chicago. While the Yankees have slumped recently, Montgomery is 3-0 in his last four starts (team is 3-1), after allowing two runs on five hits over 5 2/3 innings of an 8-4 win over last Wednesday over the Angels. Montgomery made his second career start against Chicago back on April 17 and earned his first win while yielding three runs in six innings.
Holmberg has made five of his 14 appearances this season as a starter and is 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA in that role (teams is 3-2 in his starts). He allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings at Minnesota in his last start on Wednesday and worked one inning out of the bullpen on Friday. Holmberg is making his first career appearance against New York.
Montgomery has been New York's most reliable starter during the team's recent slide and comes in 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in four June starts (Yanks are 3-1). Despite New York's recent slump, the Yanks open this series averaging 5.59 RPG, which is second-best in all of MLB. The team also ranks third in BA (.271), OPS (.808) and HRs (119) . In contrast, the White Sox average 4.55 RPG (21), bat .262 as a team (10), own a .734 OPS (24) and have hit 84 HRs (23). What's more, Montgomery is the better starter.
Jimmy Boyd
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -1½
Arizona is rolling right now and I look for them to keep it going with another comfortable win over the Phillies in the finale of their 4-game series. The Diamondbacks are 14-3 in their last 17 and 13-2 in their last 15 games at home. They are in a prime spot to not only win, but win by more than 2 runs with ace Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke is having a huge bounce back year and has owned the Phillies, going 7-1 with a 2.48 ERA.
Philadelphia is countering with Nick Pivetta, who is 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in 8 starts. He's been especially bad on the road, where he's got a 5.18 ERA and 1.767 WHIP in 5 outings. Hard to see him containing an Arizona offense that is averaging 6.3 runs and hitting .289 as a team at home this season.
Kevin Rogers
Angels vs. Dodgers
Play: Angels +197
The Angels travel back to Los Angeles after taking two of three from Boston this past weekend. The Halos have won seven of their last 10 road games, while the Dodgers have won 16 of their last 17 games, including 10 in a row after sweeping the Rockies. Rich Hill takes the mound for the Dodgers in the opener of the Freeway Series, as the southpaw has made nine starts this season, but hasn't lasted psat the fifth inning in any of those outings. Ricky Nolasco is winless in his last 10 starts for the Angels, including an 0-6 mark in his last six road outings. However, Nolasco is an innings-eater and the Angels have won five of their last seven on the road against left-handed starters. I'll back the Angels to end the Dodgers' long winning streak.
Brandon Lee
Chicago at washington
Play: Washington -146
Washington is worth a look here against the Cubs. This will be the Nationals first crack at the defending champs this season and while Chicago isn't playing like a World Series contender so far, that's not to keep Washington from treating this any different than they would. I look for the Nationals to be 100% locked in and they are catching the Cubs at the right time. Chicago had to travel right after their 2-4 loss to Miami yesterday and are at a big disadvantage here with the starting pitching matchup. Cubs send out Eddie Butler against Gio Gonzalez. Butler pitched well in his last start, but thatwas against the Padres. He's got a 4.19 ERA in 8 starts and 5.62 ERA in 3 outings on the road. Gonzalez has a sensational 2.96 ERA in 15 starts with a 1.66 ERA in 7 home starts.
Joseph D'Amico
Colorado at San Francisco
Pick: Colorado +125
Colorado has lost 5 in a row to drop the team into 3rd place in the competitive, NL West. But playing the cellar-dwelling, San Francisco club is just what the doctor ordered. The Rockies start German Marquez. The RH has allowed just 1 ER in each of his L3 turns to bring his campaign up to 5-3 with a 3.92 mark. San Fran owns the worst home record in baseball at 14-21, averaging a mere, 3.76 RPG at AT&T Park. The Giants give Jeff Samardzija the nod. The RH has won just 1 of his L6 starts en route to a 2-9, 4.74 record, which includes an 0-3, 9.33 ERA mark vs. the Rockies this year. Colorado is 10-1 their L11 meetings vs. San Francisco and 7-1 in Marquez's L 8 overall starts. San Francisco is 5-21 their L26 games played overall and 1-5 in Samardzija's L6 overall starts.
Handicappers Hub
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Rangers +162
Love this price here tonight for Cole Hamels against the struggling Indians who just got swept by the Twins at home. It seems as though the Cleveland offense has completely disappeared, scoring just 2 runs total all weekend and I think Cole will keep them quiet again here tonight.
Look for a low scoring, pitchers duel here in Cleveland with the Rangers getting just enough to get the W on the road and keep the Indians ice cold.
Doc's Sports
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Yankees -151
U.S. Cellular Field is the site of the matchup between the New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox on Monday, June 26, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Jordan Montgomery for the Yankees and David Holmberg for the White Sox.
New York opens at -139 while Chicago opens at +129. The Yankees have a 41-31-0 over/under record and a 41-31-0 run line mark. The White Sox are 38-35-0 against the run line and have a 35-35-3 over/under record.
Valuable New York Yankees Betting Trends
The New York Yankees are 41-31-0 against the over/under
The New York Yankees are 41-31-0 against the run line
Important Chicago White Sox Betting Trends
The Chicago White Sox are 35-35-3 against the over/under
The Chicago White Sox are 38-35-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Yankees have a 40-32 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery has a 5-4 record with an earned run average of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.25. He has 71 strikeouts over his 74.2 innings pitched and he's given up 67 hits. He allows 8.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.89. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.42 and they have given up 180 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .209 against the bullpen and they've struck out 259 hitters and walked 96 batters. As a team, New York allows 8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. They are 4th in the league in team earned run average at 3.81. The Yankees pitchers collectively have given up 575 base hits and 273 earned runs. They have allowed 86 home runs this season, ranking them 23rd in the league. New York as a pitching staff has walked 216 batters and struck out 671. They have walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.4 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.23 and their FIP as a unit is 3.89.
Hitting Statistics
As a team New York is hitting .270, good for 4th in the league. The Yankees hold a .462 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .346, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.5 hits per game. Aaron Judge is hitting .328 with an on-base percentage of .434. He has 84 hits this season in 256 at bats with 58 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .699 and an OPS+ of 190. Starlin Castro is hitting .315 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .350. He has totaled 92 hits and he has driven in 45 men in 292 at bats. His OPS+ is 117 while his slugging percentage is at .490. The Yankees have 683 hits, including 116 doubles and 117 home runs. New York has walked 277 times so far this season and they have struck out 647 times as a unit. They have left 530 men on base and have a team OPS of .808. They score 5.58 runs per contest and have scored a total of 402 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Chicago has a 32-41 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 2.84, David Holmberg has a 1-1 record and a 1.04 WHIP. He has 20 strikeouts over the 31.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 22 hits. He allows 6.3 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.24. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.50 and they have given up 195 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .215 against the White Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 260 batters and walked 93 opposing hitters. As a team, Chicago allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.3. The White Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 606 base knocks and 305 earned runs this season. They have given up 97 home runs this year, which ranks 11th in Major League Baseball. Chicago as a staff has walked 254 hitters and struck out 561 batters. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 4.66.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .262, good for 10th in the league. The White Sox hold a .417 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .318, which is good for 21st in baseball. They rank 11th in MLB with 9.0 hits per contest. Avisail Garcia comes into this matchup batting .336 with an OBP of .377. He has 92 hits this year along with 51 RBI in 274 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .540 with an OPS+ of 146. Jose Abreu is hitting .292 this season and he has an OBP of .344. He has collected 84 hits in 288 at bats while driving in 47 runs. He has an OPS+ of 125 and a slugging percentage of .497. The White Sox as a unit have 658 base hits, including 110 doubles and 82 homers. Chicago has walked 181 times this year and they have struck out on 599 occasions. They have had 476 men left on base and have an OPS of .735. They have scored 4.58 runs per game and totaled 334 runs this season.
Jack Jones
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Indians -1½
The Cleveland Indians were just swept at home in a 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a win today in Game 1 of this series against the Texas Rangers, who are in line for a letdown after winning their series at the New York Yankees over the weekend.
Carlos Carrasco has been the ace of the Indians' staff this season, going 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 14 starts. He has gone 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last three starts, and the Indians have won all three of those games by two runs or more.
Cole Hamels will be on a pitch count in his first start back from the DL. He has been out since April 26th with a strained right oblique. Hamels is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts against Cleveland.
Cleveland is a perfect 10-0 after three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. It is winning by 4.7 runs per game in this spot. Carrasco is 17-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons. The Indians are winning these starts by 2.1 runs per game on average.
John Martin
Angels vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -1½
The Los Angeles Dodgers are now 16-1 in their last 17 games overall after winning 10 straight coming in. A whopping 12 of their last 13 wins have come by two runs or more as well. I think the hottest team in baseball will win this game by at least two runs as they feast on Angels starter Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-9 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 15 starts this year. Nolasco has allowed 10 runs and four homers in 11 1/3 innings over his last two starts. The Angels are 0-6 in Nolasco's last six road starts. The Dodgers are 45-14 in their last 59 home games.
ASA
Colorado at San Francisco
Pick: Colorado +125
The Rockies look like a dangerous dog in this one. With both these teams on losing streaks the value appears to clearly lie with the underdog in this one. Colorado has had the Giants number this season as San Francisco is an ugly 1-10 in their meetings so far this year! With that said, we are all over the dog here as the Rockies are 7-1 in the last starts that German Marquez has made. He had one bad outing and in the other 7 outings Marquez has compiled an amazing 1.45 ERA in 38 and 2 / 3 innings over these 7 starts! Jeff Samardzija can't be happy about seeing the Rockies here. In his 3 starts against them this season, the Giants right-hander has given up 19 earned runs in his 18 and 1 / 3 innings versus Colorado this season. Samardzija is 2-9 on the season and this is unlikely to be the team that helps him snap out of his struggles this season. He has given up 6 homers in his last 3 starts, Marquez has not allowed a home in any of his last 3 starts! The Rockies are 25-16 on the road this season while the Giants are a horrible 1-12 their last 13 games! The Rockies are averaging 5.5 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. San Francisco is averaging only 3.2 runs per game at home this season. We are grabbing the road pup value in this one!
Jim Feist
New York s. Chicago
Play: Under 10
Chicago is a big park, great for pitchers. Yankees lefty Jordan Montgomery (5-4, 3.74 ERA) is 3-0 in his last four starts and picked up a win on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Angels while allowing two runs and five hits in 5+ innings. The Under is 5-2 when the Yankees are on the road against a team with a losing record. Chicago has a weak offense, #22 in runs scored, #23 in on base percentage. White Sox lefty David Holmberg (1-1, 2.84 ERA) has good stuff and the team is 7-3-2 under at home against a team with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +146 over ST. LOUIS
Notice the early start time. Also notice that the Cardinals defeated the Pirates last night on ESPN’s Sunday Night nationally televised game. We mention that because for bettors across Canada and the United States, that was the only thing to bet on last night and the Cardinals left a good impression. Throw in the Cardinals strong pedigree with that good impression and you’ll pay a bigger price on the Cardinals today than you would have had they not been seen my millions last night. The Cardinals can’t hit and they don’t field very well either so don’t be influenced by last night’s game. They’re also without Dexter Fowler, one of their few offensive catalysts and perhaps their best outfielder.
Brandon Finnegan comes off the 60 DL to make this start. He only started three games back in April so rust could be a factor but we’re not going to worry about that. There’s a good chance that Finnegan throws a strong five innings against a Cardinals’ nine that struggles (.693 OPS-25th) against southpaws. Furthermore, Finnegan was throwing beautifully prior to his injury with 14 K’s in 10 innings and a 14% swing and miss rate. He had a 57% groundball rate too. Finnegan showed good progress in his rehab assignments and if the Reds’ brass trusts he’s ready, so can we. Aside from that, Cinci’s offense is much more dangerous than the Cardinals offense.
Then there’s Michael Wacha. Coming off an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, Michael Wacha looked like he was back to full strength early on, as his ERA stood at 2.74 through seven starts. That seems like a lifetime ago because he’s been among the worst starters in the game since. Over his last six starts, Wacha’s WHIP is 2.12. That’s like pitching with the bases loaded almost every inning. His ERA/xERA split over his last six starts is 7.17/5.89. Wacha is walking batters at a high clip lately (13 BB’s in last 19 innings), which is the first sign of fatigue. A recurrence of a 2014 shoulder issue cost Wacha much of the 2nd half last year and now puts the remainder of his 2017 role in limbo. Impact on his command was the first thing to go last year and we’re seeing the same pattern this year. After July of last year, Wacha was absolutely pummeled and was relegated to the pen. It appears to us that he’s in trouble again so put him high on your fade list. Big time overlay here.
Minnesota +198 over BOSTON
Chris Sale is Chris Sale. He’s the deserving front-runner for the AL’s Cy Young Award and has the record and skills to back up everything. Sale has a ridiculous 146 K’s in 107 innings. Still, that’s a lot of innings (and pitches) in less than half a season. Sale’s 39%/39% groundball/fly-ball profile is also a tiny bit concerning when considering this park and the fact that the Twinkies have some bombers. When Sale faced the Twinkies back on May 7, he struck out 10 but also allowed four earned runs. If Minnesota can duplicate that output or score two or three times here, we like our chances.
The Twins just went into Cleveland this past weekend and swept the Indians. They also defeated Cory Kluber in the middle game of that set while Boston dropped two of three to the Angels because they couldn’t score runs. If the Red Sox could not score against Parker Briswell, J.C Ramirez and host of relievers, it’s not out of the question that they’ll have a helluva time scoring on Jose Berrios. Furthermore, no team in MLB has hit fewer jacks than the Red Sox, which is another reason they’re too big a risk when spotting a price like this and now they’ll face Minnesota’s best pitcher, who truly is an ace.
Jose Berrios has filthy stuff. This stud has Cy Young potential and he appears to be getting better with each passing game too. Berrios has an outstanding BB/K split of 15/53 in 54 frames. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts is 15%. Berrios also has an elite 57% groundball rate, not to mention a great ERA, xERA and WHIP. Berrios was lights out in the minors. He had a “can’t miss” scouting report and one of the best minor-league pedigrees you’ll ever see. After struggling last year, his star quickly faded but we’ll call it nerves and put zero emphasis on it. Jose Berrios is the real deal. His 12% line-drive rate is the lowest in the majors among starters and it is 10 percentage points lower than Chris Sale’s 22% line-drive rate. Prices like this on pitchers like Berrios don’t come around often and if he stays healthy, it might be another 10 years before a price like this is offered on him again. If we get beat here, so be it, but it’ll be a cold day in hell when we pass on a price like this on a starter that is as good as the one we get working for us here.
Dave Price
Red Sox -1½
Off two straight losses, the Boston Red Sox should get back on track in a big way tonight against the Minnesota Twins. Ace Chris Sale gets the ball looking to build on his 9-3 record with a 2.85 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts this year. The left-hander is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 7 home starts. Boston is 9-1 off two or more consecutive losses this season, and it is coming back to win by 3.5 runs per game in this spot. Sale is 21-4 vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.