DAVE COKIN
METS AT NATIONALS
PLAY: METS -105
Naturally there’s a little concern regarding Noah Syndergaard’s elbow. But this is not the first time this has happened, and I don’t think there’s any way the Mets would be starting him here if there were any real red flags. The last time this took place was following Thor’s worst start of the season against the Giants, and he responded with a solid six at San Diego. So I’ll assume everything is ok, in which case I have no problem backing one of the game’s elite pitchers.
The Mets aren’t much good as a team right now, as they’re beat up and not producing much offense. I’m also not wild about their team defense at this point. But it’s sure not like the Nationals are in a groove. They finally broke the losing streak on Sunday, but just barely. Joe Ross, tonight’s starter, has been okay, pitching pretty much like an adequate #3 starter, which is pretty much what he is. Ross rarely dominates, but he also will generally be good enough to keep his team in the game. I would expect more of the same tonight.
This is a fairly even looking matchup to me in most categories, but the one big edge is Syndergaard, and anytime I can get one of the game’s very best at this price, I’ll usually be interested. I’ll go with the Mets to pull through tonight.
Sleepyj
Pittsburgh +104
The Dodgers haven't played well in Pittsburgh for some time now..Dodgers had a nice run going, but have cooled off now in Pittsburgh...LA SP today will be Kazmir...Still not sold on this guy and he hasn't picked up a win in Pitt since 2008..That's a long drought and it might be tough for the boys in blue to pick up a win facing Liriano....He hasn't been sharp, but I have a gut feeling he rebounds now...He seems to be getting in his head for the most part..He has struggled with runners on base and that has been the start of the decline inning after inning..I'm sure being back at home will calm him down some..If he works slow and smooth, he can battle here in this game..I understand why the Dodgers are a fav here, but the Pirates at home being a dog looks like a solid small wager for me here.
Rob Vinciletti
Phillies vs. DBacks
Play: DBacks-132
Arizona has won 8 of the last 10 and all 4 vs the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is 1-9 on Mondays and hits just .224 vs leftys. R. Ray for Arizona has been solid of late with a 2.84 era in his last 3 starts. Velasquez for the Phillies has a 5.79 road era and a 8.78 era in his last 3 starts. Home favorites in this range off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs while scoring 5+ runs and 10+ hits are cashing 88% long term vs a team like Philly also off road dog loss. Look for Arizona to take another from Philly.
Ben Burns
Cardinals vs. Royals
Play: Royals -108
The Royals got back on track yesterday, earning a much-needed 6-1 victory in their series finale vs. Houston. They should carry some positive momentum into this evening's opener vs. the Cards.
Duffy doesn't generally go deep into games and he isn't about to win any Cy Young awards. All the same, he's been pretty solid. In eight starts, he's 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.082 WHIP, striking out 50, while walking only 11, in just over 40 innings. In 13 career appearances against the NL, he's got a 3.13 ERA.
Note that the Royals bullpen, which has been pretty good overall, got a bit of a break yesterday, also much-needed, as Kennedy went seven complete.
Wainwright has certainly been a lot better of late. However, he's still got a 4.73 ERA on the season, including an ugly 5.74 mark in eight road starts.
Duffy last faced the Cards back in 2014. He tossed six shutout innings, allowing only a single hit, en route to a 6-0 victory. With the Royals an outstanding 49-18 (+28.4) their past 67 home games when the line ranged from +100 to -125, take a second look at KC in this one.
Mike Lundin
Phillies vs. DBacks
Play: DBacks-131
The early public money is all over the Arizona Diamondbacks when they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, and for a very good reason. The Phillies have lost 11 of their past 13 games and were swept over four games by the D'Backs home at Citizens Bank Park two weeks ago.
Vince Velasquez (5-2, 3.65 ERA) will take the ball for the Phillies tonight as he makes his return to the mound after missing 2 1/2 weeks with a strained right biceps. Velasquez has posted a 5.79 ERA in six road starts this season and I don't exepct him to be sharp here coming straight off the DL.
Arizona turns to left-hander Robbie Ray (4-6, 4.59) who recorded seven strikeouts through six innings of two-run ball at Philadelphia on June 17. The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter. Their .226 batting average against southpaws is the second worst mark in the major leagues and their .279 on base percentage the very worst.
The D'Backs are coming off back-to-back losses to Colorado, but they scored a total of 30 runs while splitting the series in the Rocky Mountains and they set a franchise record for a four-game set with 56 hits.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Royals
Play: Cardinals -111
Edges - Cardinals: Adam Wainwright 26-11 team starts at night last three seasons. Royals: 61-4 last 20 games as a host in this series; and 0-4 last four overall games in this series. With Wainwright in fine current form with team start win s in 5 of his last 7 starts with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Brad Diamond
Indians vs. Braves
Play: Indians -168
The Braves (26-49) picked up a 5-2 over the Mets Sunday and now look to do battle with Cleveland (44-30) possessing a 4-1 record against the Indians in Atlanta. However, the Indians are red hot bringing the longest current winning streak in the majors 9 games after beating Detroit yesterday. Atlanta uses RHP Gant (1-2, 4.45) who has three starts this season only one was quality statistically. He is 0-1 with 7.36 ERA at home, while facing the Marlins last time out in Miami going 5-2/3 innings surrendering 7 hits and 3 runs. He opposes very consistent RHP Bauer (5-2, 3.20) of Cleveland. Bauer has a super 3-1 (2.84) record on the road, while throwing 24 innings last three with a 1.50 ERA. He has crafted 6 straight quality starts. The Braves are just 11-29 at home, the Indians 21-18 on the road. Cleveland comes winning 4 straight interleague games, 6-1 game #1 of a series. They are 5-1 L6 on the road versus a losing team. Atlanta brings a 0-6 record against RHP in interleague tests and an 8-18 mark vs. a winning road unit.
Matt Josephs
Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Over 8
Tampa Bay's offense is bad....except when it comes to left-handed starters. The Rays are hitting .274 in those games putting up an average of 5.2 runs.. They have gone over in 11 of 18 of those games and should be able to touch up Eduardo Rodriguez. The lefty has a 6.41 ERA in five starts for Boston giving up 20 runs and 28 hits in just over 26 innings. Last year Rodriguez allowed six runs and 12 hits in 11 innings against Tampa and both of those outings went over and came at home. Blake Snell is looking for his first win of the season. The southpaw is facing his stiffest challenge of the season in Boston. The Red Sox entered Sunday's game hitting .288 as a team and .286 in night games. Tampa Bay's bullpen had a rough series in Baltimore. These two have gone over in two of their three meetings this season. I think this one should do the same.
Jim Feist
Rangers at Yankees
Pick: Over
The Rangers have now gone OVER in in three of their last five, with one push tossed in just for good measure. With Gonzalez on the hill today for the Rangers, they have also gone over in four of his five starts on natural turf. The Yankees have also proved a good over team of late, evidenced by their 6-2 mark in their last eight games. They are also 3-1-1 O/U in Nova's last five starts on grass. In addition, the Yankees are 6-2-1 O/U in Nova's last nine home starts. Nova has been hit hard in recent starts, allowing 10 earned runs over his last nine innings and 18 runs over his last four starts (21.1 innings). Texas has an excellent hitting team and that will be bad news for the Yankees starter today.
Scott Spreitzer
Houston at Los Angeles
Pick: Houston
Los Angeles finally won a game yesterday after losing six in a row, but the Angels are in last place and 17 games behind in the AL West Division and just 16-23 at home. Meanwhile, even though Houston lost yesterday, the Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball and winners of seven of their last eight games. The Angels have lost four of Matt Shoemaker's last five starts although he has been getting little run support. Shoemaker is 1-4 at home with a 4.43 ERA and Astros hitters have a collective .770 OPS against him. Collin McHugh comes off two strong starts allowing three runs in 13 2/3 innings and Houston has won five of his last six starts. He gave up just two runs and five hits in seven innings in one appearance against the Angels this season and last year gave up four runs in 15 1/3 innings at Angel Stadium.
Bruce Marshall
Toronto at Colorado
Pick: Colorado
Let's see how the Blue Jays react to the odd surroundings of Coors Field after spending the weekend in Chicago vs. the Chisox at the very sea-lelvel Cell. The battling Rockies have won two in a row as their offense gets back in gear, and Monday starter Jon Gray has been effective in his last three starts at home, allowing just five runs and 13 hits over 20 IP (2.25 ERA). Toronto starter Marco Estrada hasn't pitched in Denver since 2014, but was bombed in his last appearance at Coors Field, allowing 7 runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 IP.
Stephen Nover
Red Sox -110
Take away nearly half of a starting lineup from a mediocre team and you're likely to end up with a prolonged losing streak. That's what is going on with the Rays, losers of 11 in a row.
You know things are desperate in Tampa when the team turns to the Twins for help acquiring Oswaldo Arcia, who immediately entered the starting lineup.
The Rays have lost by two or more runs in each of their last 11 games, allowing five-plus runs per game during this span while batting .210. They've been outscored by 43 runs during their 11-game losing streak.
Now the Rays return home for the first time in a week and face the league's No. 1 scoring and hitting team, Boston. Rookie Blake Snell gets the call to try to end Tampa's losing skid. Snell has pitched once at Tropicana Field. That was back on June 16. He gave up five runs (one earned) on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings against Seattle.
The Red Sox are pitching Eduardo Rodriguez, who showed a lot of promise entering the season but then had to miss the first two months because of a knee injury. This is a good time to jump on Rodriguez, who is rounding into shape. Rodriguez pitched six innings and struck out seven against the White Sox this past Wednesday.
SPS Investors
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Pick: Dodgers
This Pittsburgh Pirates did something last night that few teams have been able to do this season and that is hand Clayton Kershaw a loss on the mound. It was one of Kershaw's worst starts this season giving up 9 hits, 4 earned runs and striking out just 4. He also uncharacteristically gave up 2 walks. That had to be a blow to this Dodger's organization as when Kershaw takes the mound, the entire franchise almost 'expects' a victory.
That being said, the Dodgers are in danger of potentially being swept in this 4 game series by the Pittsburgh Pirates and we don't believe they will allow that to happen. We expect the Dodger's to be motivated to bounce back this afternoon, especially on such a quick turnaround and at least salvage one game of this series.
There is no question that PNC Park has historically given the Pirates a great home advantage, however, this team has struggled during daytime games where they are just 9-15 on the season. On the other hand the Dodgers have thrives under the natural light of daytime outings as they are an impressive 11-6 in games played during the afternoon this season. With the motivation to halt their mini 3 game losing streak and at least take one game of this series, we expect an all-out effort from the Dodgers in this contest as they come away with a closely contested victory.
Power Sports
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels avoided what would have been an embarrassing four-game sweep at the hands of the A's w/ a 7-6 win Sunday. Things looked rather bleak early on as they trailed 6-2 after four innings, but they scored five times in the final three innings and the game-winning run came in the final at-bat. Take them here.
It appears as if sharp money thinks that yday's result will have a carryover type effect. While not receiving the majority of bets here, the Angels are definitely seeing the line move in their direction this morning. I'm not surprised that more people are on Houston here as they'd won seven in a row before losing Sunday. But I'm also willing to bank that we'll start to see the Astros "give a little back" in the coming days.
With the ESPN cameras rolling tonight in Angel Stadium, this game figures to have a bit of a special meaning for the host Halos. They are also just 1-5 vs. the Astros this season and were swept in Houston last week. Thus, the revenge angle comes into play. I like what I've seen from LA starter Michael Shoemaker lately, particularly his 1.69 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his L3 starts. Sadly, he has yet to win in June despite giving up 3 ER or less in four of his five starts. Going back a bit further, we find that he has allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. It was a hard luck loss for Shoemaker last week in Houston while Astros starter Colin McHugh was able to win the day before by the same exact final score (3-2). But there's reason to be concerned about McHugh this time around as his ERA/WHIP is 5.02/1.407 on the road.
Ray Monohan
St. Louis Cardinals +109
St. Louis and Kansas City renew their rivalry as the two teams go at it on Monday night in Kansas City. The Cardinals come into this one very solid on the road. They hold the 2nd best road record in the MLB at 24-12 and come in off a performance where they had 13 extra base hits.
They go with Adam Wainwright here. Wainwright took down the Cubs last time out and has really pitched well this month. He's posted an ERA of only 2.36 in 4 outings in the month of June.
Against Kansas City, Wainwright has gone 4-1 with a 3.07 ERA .
Some trends to consider. Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 road games.
With the Cardinals success on the road and with how good Wainwright has been, this is a nice spot for them at plus money.