Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -138
The Cleveland Indians are the hottest team in baseball. They have won nine straight coming in to improve to 44-30 on the season and 1st place in the AL Central. They aren't about to cool off against the NL-worst Atlanta Braves (26-49) tonight.
Trevor Bauer is having the best season of his career to this point. He's 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 11 starts, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in his last three.
John Gant will be making just his fourth start of the season for the Braves tonight. He has gone 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.140 WHIP through his first three starts. He had two solid starts against the Mets and Marlins but an awful one in his only home start against the Cubs.
The Braves are 20-44 in their last 64 home games. Atlanta is 8-22 in its last 30 interleague games. The Braves are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
Cubs -1½ -145
Chicago will have Jake Arrieta on the mound Monday against the Reds and I really like the value here with Cubs on the -1.5 run line. Arrieta is a perfect 7-0 on the road this season, posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in 7 starts. Chicago has won his last two starts at Cincinnati by a combined score of 21-2, which includes his no hitter he threw back in April. While Arrieta figures to keep the Reds offense in check, the Cubs should be able to provide plenty of run support against Cincinnati starter Daniel Straily, who is coming off two poor outings, where he gave up 10 runs on 10 hits and 5 walks in 10 1/3 innings at Atlanta and Texas. Chicago is 16-1 in Arrieta's last 17 road starts after giving up 1 or less runs in his last outing and have won these games by an average score of 6.5 to 2.4.
ASA
Braves +1½ -126
Even though the Indians have been hot (9 straight wins), they are running into a Braves team that has won 8 of their last 11 games. One of those three Atlanta losses came by just a single run. The Braves have been getting fantastic pitching as they have given up an average of only 7 hits per game in their last 10 games. The Indians will struggle to get any type of margin in this game as John Gant will be toeing the rubber for the Braves. The right-hander has settled in nicely in his last two starts after struggling in his first start at home this season. He finally gets a chance to atone for that effort tonight in front of the home fans and Gant comes in having allowed only 9 hits in his last two starts which totaled 12+ innings. The Indians Trevor Bauer is off of a complete game effort in his most recent start and that was at home. Now he's back on the road where the Indians are 2-3 in his starts this season and the right-hander may labor after the complete game against the Rays. Cleveland is a money burning 4-6 as road favorite in a range of -125 to -150 this season. Where we see the best value here is with the run line as we can get the +1.5 runs simply by laying a small price. The Braves have been playing much better baseball the past two weeks. We'll take the home team Atlanta Braves with the added value of the +1.5 runs on the run line Monday evening.
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals vs. Royals
Play: Cardinals +111
The Royals are off a 6-1 win yesterday but had previously lost 4 straight games. The Cardinals are also off of a win yesterday and that was their 4th in their last 6 games as they snapped a mini two-game skid. With the Cards looking to wrap up an 8-game road trip the right way as they start this two-game mini-series at Kansas City, I feel we are getting excellent line value here as they take on a slumping Royals team that has lost 4 of 5. Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals and he has produced 4 straight quality starts (at least 6 innings and no more than 3 earned runs) and now has 6 quality outings in his last 7. St Louis is 6-2 in his 8 road starts this season. He'll be opposed by Kansas City's Danny Duffy who has "cooled off" after a strong recent stretch. In his last two starts Duffy has walked 6 and allowed 8 hits (including 4 homers) for a 1.45 WHIP in these outings. The Royals have lost each of his last two starts and he's facing Wainwright who is 4-1 in his career starts against Kansas City. Keep in mind that the Royals started the season 12-6 but have a losing record since then. Conversely the Cards are on a 15-11 run since late May. They also are 9-4 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Look for the Cardinals to improve to 6-2 in Monday games this season while the Royals drop to 3-6 on Mondays.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals +111
St Louis is showing some great value here as a small road dog against the Royals. The Cardinals avoided getting swept in Seattle with a 11-6 win on Sunday, where they piled on 17 hits. The win came against Mariners' lefty starter James Paxton. St Louis is averaging 5.4 runs/game against left-handed starters this season and 6.1 runs/game on the road. They face another southpaw today, as the Royals send out Danny Duffy.
I'll take my chances here with the Cardinals, as they will counter with Adam Wainwright. After a surprisingly slow start to the 2016 season, Wainwright has returned to form. He's got a 2.29 ERA and 0.966 WHIP over his last 3 starts and has now pitched well in his last 7 starts. He's in prime position to keep it going, as the Royals are only scoring 3.8 runs/game against right-handed starters this season.
The Cardinals are 24-14 in Wainwright's last 38 starts as a dog of +100 to +150, 29-9 in his last 38 road starts with a total sitting at 8 to 8.5 runs and 6-1 in his last 7 against a team with a winning record. Cardinals are also 9-2 in their last 11 road games overall and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or better.
Dave Price
Arizona Diamondbacks -133
I like the price we are getting the Arizona Diamondbacks today as small home favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Diamondbacks come in playing well, having won 7 of their last 10 games overall. The Phillies continue to struggle, losing 11 of its last 13 contests. The edge on the mound goes to Robbie Ray, who is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Diamondbacks. Vincent Velasquez is 2-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in 6 road starts this year. He's also 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his last 3 starts coming in. The Phillies are 6-24 in their last 30 Monday games. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
Michael Alexander
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Mets -119
Syndergaard won his second straight start and improved to 6-0 in his last nine appearances on Wednesday after allowing three runs on eight hits in six innings versus Kansas City. The 23-year-old fireballer exited that contest after experiencing renewed discomfort in his right elbow, but an MRI returned clean, so manager Terry Collins and company feel Syndergaard is ready to face the Nationals for the second time this season. The Texas native improved to 2-0 versus Washington in his career after scattering five hits and striking out 10 in seven strong innings in a 2-0 win on May 17.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas +119 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Chicago Cubs open the season on fire and for the first 2½ months of the season they are a 2-1 favorite or more in a high majority of their games. The Cubs have since cooled off. The Texas Rangers open the season on fire and they come in as a dog almost every night, even in their own park. The Rangers remain hot and now have the most wins in MLB after leapfrogging over the Cubs yesterday. They have not cooled off. Funny, isn’t it, how the market sees two teams with identical records? The difference is that the Cubbies have quality starters going almost every day while the Rangers have one quality starter in Cole Hamels. In the case of the Texas Rangers, pitching isn’t everything, which brings us to this series in New York.
The Yanks are 6-7 over their past 13 games. However, five of those six wins occurred against the Twins. The other victory occurred against the Rockies in a game the Yanks trailed 8-4 in the seventh inning. The Yankees are 37-37 overall but have played the 21st ranked schedule in MLB. Against top-10 teams, New York has seven wins in 24 games and that alone makes them worthy of fading here. Then there’s Ivan Nova, who has a mere 44 K’s in 64 innings to go along with a 5.18 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Nova has been tagged for 12 jacks in 64 innings. When all of your bad seasons are HR-heavy, it's not just hr/f bad luck. Nova’s return from TJS last year kept his expectations light, but he still disappointed. His fastball is awful (career 5% swing and miss) and he lacks a reliable 3rd pitch. He needs a better fastball or return to the slider to get back on the radar. To spotting a tag with Nova and the Yanks, we say no thanks.
By contrast, Texas has played the ninth ranked schedule in the league and has won 13 of 20 games against top-10 competition. Against top-15 competition, Texas is 30-12 while the Yanks are 12-25. The battle to keep the fifth starter’s slot warm for Yu Darvish is more or less a heads-up competition between Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez, even though it probably shouldn’t be. Martinez essentially turns every hitter he faces into Xander Bogaerts and keeps getting himself demoted. Chi-Chi Gonzalez has significantly higher upside—how could he not?—though he has battled his own inconsistency thus far in his brief big league career. His heinous ratio of 30 strikeouts to 32 walks drove a xERA in his rookie season that ranked 201st out of 216 pitchers to log his 67 innings. Gonzalez has done little to ease concerns with a 5.04 ERA at Round Rock of the Pacific Coast League this year. However, Gonzalez has only been taken deep three times in 80.1 innings for Round Rock. The PCL always inflates the numbers against pitchers. Furthermore, in his 67 innings last year for the Rangers, Rodriguez held the opposition to a meager 47 hits and a .202 batting average. That all occurred after pitching 35.2 innings of the 67 he threw at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. With a heavy groundball lean, surely, Gonzalez is capable of a solid outing against a Yankees’ team that beats up only on the weak.
COLORADO -1½ +185 over Toronto
Jonathan Gray is coming off a game in the Bronx in which the Yankees won, 9-8. Gray only allowed three hits in four innings but one of those hits was a grand-slam. He uncharacteristically walked five batters and got the hook early after throwing 80 pitches. Gray is now 4-3 with a 4.80 ERA after 12 starts. Thing is, Gray has a 57% strand rate. That is the lowest strand rate in the majors among qualified starters and it is a hugely luck-driven stat. Gray comes in with a BB/K split of 24/75 in 69 innings to go along with a 50% groundball rate. His swing and miss rate is 12% but it is 13% over his last five starts after he struck out 36 batters in 37 frames. Gray’s ERA over his last five starts is 3.13 and his overall xERA is 3.30. With top-tier punch-outs and a groundball tilt, Gray is a budding ace who won't come cheap much longer. That he’s a dog at home to Marco Estrada is extraordinary.
Do we really have to go over this again? Of course we do and we love it only Estrada is getting worse, not better. In his last start, his fly-ball rate was 75%. We’ll see how that plays out at Coors. In his last start against Arizona, Estrada only allowed two hits in six innings but one was a jack and six balls were warning track shots.
That out recorded by Kevin Pillar in CF will go down in the box score the same way as a soft roller to first base. It’s an out. Thing is, Estrada has been recording outs like that all season long, not to mention all of last year too. At some point, those hard hit balls will NOT be hit at people. Instead, they will find the gaps. Estrada’s velocity is also down a couple of ticks to 87.8 MPH. There has never been a pitcher in the history of this game that has ridden a changeup to the type of success that Estrada has. That’s his weapon of choice and guys go up there trying to hit the cover off the ball because it’s so juicy. Most of the time batters just miss hitting it out. Estrada comes in with the luckiest BABIP in the majors at .183. That’s 135 points lower than Noah Syndergaard’s .318 BABIP. It’s also 80 points lower than Clayton Kershaw’s and 104 points lower than Jake Arrieta’s. Estrada’s 80% strand rate is doing a lot of the heavy lifting too.
Most ordinary pitchers are helped out by some good and bad luck. They’ll have a low hit rate but a low strand rate to even it out. They’ll have a high strand rate but a high BABIP to even it out. There are many luck-driven stats in baseball. It’s a stats driven game but Marco Estrada has taken one pitch, the changeup and turned it into months of incredibly good luck. No luck-driven stat has worked against him. He has a low hit rate, a high strand rate, a remarkably low BABIP rate, he walks too many guys that don’t come back to score, he is often behind in the count and he has the highest fly-ball rate in baseball among qualified starters. These aren’t skills that equal up to a 2.70 ERA. So while guys like Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler salivate all over themselves when talking about Estrada, we’ll continue to fade this less than ordinary pitcher because once the floodgates open, it’s going to be a tsunami. Those fly-balls to the warning track will not be outs in Colorado.
St. Louis +106 over KANSAS CITY
Danny Duffy is breaking out—again ... Duffy has done this before. He posted a 2.53 ERA in his breakout 2014 season, but underwhelming skills that year made his 2015 dud somewhat unsurprising. Duffy's at it again in 2016 with a 3.38 ERA. Does this breakout have more legs than the last one? Not really. While there are several encouraging signs, there are also some concerns that MLB hitters catch onto real quick. Duffy has 71 K’s in 59 innings. We're typically skeptical of a major strikeout rate spike like this but Duffy's fastball velocity is up nearly two mph and his swing and miss rate has exploded. Looks like Duffy can certainly keep a K-per-inning + pace. Duffy's impressive performance comes with plenty of support, as he's throwing more strikes, generating more whiffs, and doing it with more velocity. Duffy's changeup, which has produced a 19% swing and miss rate this year, has been an increasingly used weapon as well (9% usage in 2014-15; 15% in 2016). We need to urge caution given the 59-innings sample size. We also must point out that Duffy is not durable. He started the year in the pen for his first 17 appearances. Many of his K’s happened when he was facing three batters an outing. He threw 102 pitches in his last start in just four innings. That suggests he has trouble “putting away” hitters and that occurred against the Mets. He has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any of his starts and he’s only made it past five innings in four starts. Duffy also has a 33%/47% groundball/fly-ball ratio. Incidentally, the Cardinals .786 OPS on the road is the third best in MLB. Danny Duffy's numbers are pretty but they are also deceiving because so many of his good stats have come in relief only.
Adam Wainwright had ace status for years but this market is quite aware of the slide he’s been on for well over a year. Wainwright rallied from an April Achilles injury to pitch out of the pen late in the second half of last year but it was too small to matter (8 IP including post-season). Wainwright got off to a rocky start this year too with a 4.73 ERA after his first eight starts through May 12. We were quick to point out Wainwright’s skills decline but we’re also quick to point out when a correction to the good is forthcoming. Wainwright finally has his strength back and he is looking once again like an ace. Wainwright wasn’t striking out many batters early on so he only has 65 K’s in 91 innings but he has whiffed 30 over his past 34 innings. That comes with support of his 12% swing and miss rate over that span. Wainwright’s groundball rate is increasing too practically every start. That rate was at 40% in the first month of the season but it is up to 50% over his last five starts. Adam Wainwright’s xERA over his last five starts is 3.19. That puts him in elite company. His actual ERA over that span is even better at 2.94. Adam Wainwright has his skills and confidence back.
GoodFella
Cubs TT Over 5
A very nice weather pattern for tonight's ball game in Cincinnati. We have temps in the high 80's and wind blowing straight out at 8-10 mph. Of course this venue is an extreme hitters park, as this bandbox yields an extreme number of HR's (especially when the weather is warm) like it is tonight. This Cubs line up is very deep and talented and I do expect them to get to Reds SP Straily eventually. Then we get into that piss poor Reds bullpen for the remainder of the game. We also have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting our 9 innings of at-bats. I really like the Cubs to plate at least 5 runs before this game goes final, and I'm on the Cubs Team Total going OVER in this spot tonight.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Cardinals at Royals
Play: Under 8.5
I like the UNDER 8.5 runs in this game because, among other things, Wainwright is trending in the right direction, posting a 2.36 ERA and 2.38 FIP in June after garnering a 7.18 ERA and 5.30 FIP in April. Both his strikeout numbers (4.55 K/9 in April to 8.44 K/9 in June) and K-BB% (2.4 in April to 17.0% in June) have improved as well. Wainwright is also 4-1 with a career 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP versus the Royals.
The 'under' is 36-16-5 in the Cardinals' last 54 interleague games and 7-3-1 in their last 11 games overall. The 'under' is also 6-0 in Wainwright's last six starts on full rest and 4-1 in his last five road outings versus teams with a winning record. The 'under' is 17-6 in Duffy's last 23 starts and 21-8-2 in his last 31 starts versus .501 or greater opposition.
Equally important is the the fact that the 'under' is 8-1-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series, including 4-0-2 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.
OSKEIM SPORTS
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -115
Danny Duffy is quietly becoming a legitimate ace in Kansas City's starting rotation. The talented southpaw is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in eight starts this season, including going 1-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his last three outings. Duffy currently ranks in the Top 10 in first-pitch strike rate, contact rate and in-zone contact rate. Those rankings indicate two things - Duffy is getting ahead in the count and batters are struggling to square up on his pitches in the zone.
Duffy has thrown 71% strikes through his first eight starts, while allowing 70.1% contact. The lefty is struggled recently, giving up a combined 4 home runs in his last two outings. However, Duffy is walking no one (6.7% BB%) and boasts a 15.9% swinging strike rate this season. His strikeout rate has also climbed in each of the past three months: 9.0 K/9 in April; 10.53 K/9 in May; and 11.89 K/9 in June.
Since entering the league in 2011, Duffy has posted a career 57% first-pitch strike rate, which is well below the MLB average of 60-61% over that span. Duffy's first-pitch strike rate of 63.9% this season is a significant breakthrough in that the difference between 1-0 and 0-1 pitch counts is 223 points of OPS!
For Duffy, it has been an incredible 300 points over his career! Duffy's fastball has been electric, yielding a .590 OPS in 2016 as compared to .778 last season and his .725 career rate. His slider has been equally impressive, garnering a strikeout rate exceeding 50% with a velocity topping out at 4 mph faster than in prior years.
In short, Duffy is posting a career-best Strike%, K%, BB% and Contact% as a starter in 2016. The 27-year-old is also supported by solid metrics: 3.90 FIP, 3.59 xFIP and a 3.11 SIERA. In the month of May, Duffy posted a 2.75 ERA and 2.73 FIP, together with a 29.5% K%, 3.9% BB% and 25.5% K-BB%. Duffy is also 1-0 with a career 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP versus the Cardinals, while the Royals are 23-9 in Duffy's last 32 home starts and 4-1 in his last five home outings versus teams with a winning record.
Kansas City also possesses a very talented bullpen that owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season, including posting a 2.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. In contrast, St. Louis relievers have struggled against American League bats, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 27 interleague innings this season. St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright has struggled away from home where he owns a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2016.
Wainwright's 5.02 FIP, 4.63 xFIP and 9.0% K-BB% further substantiate his struggles on foreign soil. Finally, Kansas City is 37-15 in its last 52 home games, 42-16 in its last 58 home games versus right-handed starters, 20-7 in its last 27 interleague games versus right-handed starters, 11-3 in its last 14 games off a win and 23-9 in Duffy's last 32 home starts. Take the Royals at an excellent price and invest with confidence.
BUSTER SPORTS
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -101
For our free play of the day we are going to the game at Tropicana Field, in St. Petersburg, Florida between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. The starting pitchers for tonight's matchup are for the Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (1-2, 6.41 ERA) and for the Rays LH Blake Snell (0-2, 2.40)
Rodriquez was supposed to be one of the bright spots for the Red Sox this year but unfortunately it hasn't been the case. He was injured to begin the year but since he has came back it looks like he hasn't fully recovered. He has a 7.20 ERA with a WHIP of 1.733 in his last 3 starts. As for Snell, the Rays rookie has looked very good to start his major league career. This will be his fourth start and his first against the Red Sox. He has allowed only 4 earned runs in 15 innings pitched in his rookie season. The Rays are coming home off a 7 game road trip and they have lost 11 games in a row. They snap that streak tonight. We believe we have a huge pitching advantage tonight and with our system having the Rays as minus 140 we will be more than happy to take them at basically even money.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -129
The Yankees are worth a shot at home tonight. Ivan Nova's first-glance numbers are certainly nothing special, but he does not walk many batters and he gets plenty of groundball outs. Texas' Chi Chi Rodriguez has not started a Major League game since last season, and I am not impressed based on the statistics I consider relevant. New York owns a solid edge in the bullpens as well. My line for this game was Yankees -145, so some value on the home team in this one.
Micah Roberts
Phillies / DBacks Under 9
The Phillies have been hitting the ball well lately, but when the DBacks faced them over a week ago the entire Arizona starting rotation had an outstanding day ina four game sweep where the Phils only scored five runs combined. Robbie Ray allowed only two runs and got the win. Vincent Velasquez hasn't pitched since June 8 when he had a bicep issue, but he's supposed to be better. Arizona has been terrible at home this season, and has Ray, but I like them to keep this a low scoring game with help from Velasquez.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON +105 over Tampa Bay
We went against Boston on Sunday on our "Steam Team" phone service as part of a 2-0 Sunday and 5-1 run overall, but today we'll come back and take the Red Sox. There is simply no way this Tampa Bay team should be favored over anyone right now, even a slight favorite. The Rays are ravaged by injuries and have now lost 11 in a row. During this streak they have scored more than five runs in a game just once and they have allowed five runs or more in all 11 games. Other than the fact that Clay Buchholz was on the hill, a main reason we faded Boston yesterday was because they were resting some starters and the bullpen was gassed. Look for big bounce back effort here from the Sox tonight against a Tampa team that's a money-eating 9-24 (-18.5 UNITS) against winning teams.