Free Picks for Monday, June 5th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
PHILLIES AT BRAVES
PLAY: OVER 10
Short and sweet. This would appear to be a likely shootout. The ballpark is extremely hitter friendly, and so are the two pitchers.
Pivetta has dominated at AAA, but at that level his mainly two-pitch arsenal can do so. Not so much in the majors and Pivetta has also been less in command of his stuff at the top level.
Colon has been really awful in most of his recent starts, and I think there’s some substance to the thought he’s finally at the end of the line.
So the Phillies-Braves Over looks live to me, and I’ll play it that way. Note this will be a half unit selection for me as I will also be playing the side in this game.
John Martin
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Braves -115
The Philadelphia Phillies are just 19-35 on the season. This is a very generous price to be able to fade them at on the road. The Atlanta Braves return home from their 9-game road trip following two straight victories at Cincinnati. Bartolo Colon gets to face a team that he has had plenty of success against. Colon is 11-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 20 starts against the Phillies. Nick Pivetta is a young prospect who has struggled in four starts this season for the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The Phillies are 15-37 in their last 52 road games. The Phillies are 1-12 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven during game 1 of a series.
Cappers Club
Marlins vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -122
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Miami Marlins and the Chicago Cubs face off on Monday night, and I think the defending champs have a lot of value in this one.
The Chicago Cubs have really been struggling this year, but this past weekend they showed a glimpse of what could be if they continue playing up to their potential.
They got good pitching most of the weekend and did enough at the plate to complete a three game sweep of their rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals.
On the mound for the Marlins is Dan Straily who has pitched well this year but the Cubs have too many offensive weapons, especially at home.
Some trends to note. Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League Central. Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League East. Marlins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
Jack Jones
Blue Jays vs. A's
Play: A's -113
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a tough spot here. They just completed a four-game series against the rival New York Yankees at home, and now they have to travel across the country for a series against the Oakland A's on Monday.
I'll gladly back Oakland's Sean Manaea in Game 1. He has gone 4-3 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in nine starts this season, 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in four home starts, and 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last three outings.
J.A. Happ has an aberration-type season last year where he was great for really the first time in his career. But he is coming off an injury and hasn't been effective in 2017 thus far. Happ is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts this season.
The Blue Jays are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. The A's are 6-1 in their last seven home games vs. a left-handed starter. Oakland is 7-3 in its last 10 home meetings with Toronto.
Dave Price
Nationals vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8
The Key: This is a very low total for two of the best lineups in baseball and two average-at-best starting pitchers. The Nationals just put up 28 runs in their 3-game series at Oakland and are scoring 5.9 runs per game on the road this season. The Dodgers are scoring 5.5 runs per game at home. Gio Gonzalez got off to a great start this year but has come back down to reality, sporting a 4.67 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been a mess all year at 2-5 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 8 starts. The OVER is 10-2-1 in Nationals last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 road starts. The OVER is 15-5-4 in Dodgers last 24 vs. NL East opponents. The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts vs. Los Angeles.
Dustin Hawkins
San Francisco at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +114
The Giants are only 8-20 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. San Francisco is 1-9 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija is 0-5 when starting against Milwaukee with an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.326.
Mike Anthony
Toronto vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland -113
Neither team hits lefties very well, which is why I'm going with the host Athletics and red-hot Sean Manaea. He has a 2.92 ERA over his last seven starts, while J.A. Happ is struggling to find last year's form. Back the A's, who have won seven of the past 10 meetings in Oakland.
Jim Feist
Toronto vs. Oakland
Play: Over
Toronto's offense has bounced back after a terrible April, 11-5 over the total on the road. J.A. Happ (0-3, 4.50 ERA) is on the mound and the Over is 10-3 in the Blue Jays last 13 on grass. Oakland is 8-3 over the total against a lefty starter. Starter Sean Manaea has walked 10 batters with 15 hits at home and the Over is 5-2 in Manaea's last 7 home starts. And the Over is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings.
Mike Lundin
Miami vs. Chicago
Play: Over 7.5
The Chicago Cubs are just 28-27 overall this season, but the reigning World Champs are a respectable 17-11 home at Wrigley where they've also scored a healthy amount of runs.
They're probably gonna have to score more than a few runs to win tonight's game with Eddie Butler (2-1, 4.42 ERA) on the mound. Butler is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA in two career games (one start) against the Marlins. He was slapped around for six runs through 4 1/3 frames in a loss at San Diego his last time out.
The Marlins have won three straight and seven of their last eight, but tonight's starter Dan Straily (4-3, 3.56 ERA) has posted a 6.11 ERA in four career games (three starts) against the Cubs. Over is 5-0 in Straily's last five starts overall.
Look for plenty of runs at Wrigley Field tonight.
Larry Wallace
Toronto at Oakland
Play: Toronto -107
Taking Toronto here. Donaldson has found his home run stroke and looks to keep the Toronto Blue Jays' surge going when they open a three-game series at the Oakland Athletics on Monday. Donaldson, who came off the disabled list late last month, has slugged four homers in a span of five games. Happ is 4-0 with a 3.17 ERA in nine career games (seven starts) versus Oakland. The A's have allowed an average of 10.3 runs in their last four losses.
Power Sports
Miami vs. Chicago
Pick: Miami +1.5
Despite the obvious talent gap that exists between the two teams, I feel the Fish are worth a shot here as the Cubs face the disadvantage of having played the Sunday night game. Plus, tonight's pitching matchup may very well be in favor of the underdog. I look for Miami to do no worse that a one-run loss here.
Dan Straily will be pitching for the Marlins in this series opener. The team has won each of his last three starts and he was downright dominant in the last one, allowing just two runs (one earned) while striking out 10 over 6 2/3 innings. By the way, Miami did quite well over the weekend, taking three of four from an Arizona team that has a better record than the Cubs right now.
The Cubs ended May by losing six straight (all on the West Coast), but then opened June by sweeping the Cardinals here at Wrigley. Still, the World Champs have been downright mediocre so far in 2017 (+4 run differential) and two of the three wins over St. Louis came by one run. A weaker starting rotation has been the primary issue this year for the Cubs and Eddie Butler is emblematic of that . He's posted a 6.57 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in his L3 starts and has more walks than strikeouts during that time.
Wunderdog
Houston @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +1.5
The Houston Astros have rebuilt their team to the point where they are carrying the best record in baseball at 41-16. That is a pace that for the most part is unsustainable. I say that because over the last 12 years any team that has a winning percentage of better than .670 after 54 games (1/3 of the season) have an ROI playing against them of +7.2%. That number doubles if you consider the run line to +14.3%. The Royals dug themslves a deep hole, finishing April at 7-16 while scoring just 2.74 runs a contest. They are an under the radar 17-15 since, scoring 4.09 runs per game. This combination puts the value in this contest.
Brandon Lee
Nationals vs. Dodgers
Play: Nationals +121
Washington is worth a look here in your prime time ESPN clash against the Dodgers. The Nationals are playing well right now at 10-3 over their last 13 and I just like the starting pitching matchup in this one. Washington is sending out Gio Gonzalez, who has thrown the ball well in his last 2 starts and has a strong history against the Dodgers with a 3-1 record and 2.23 ERA in 6 starts. Plus, LA's offense struggles a little more with left-handed starters. Dodgers are countering with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is off a great outing out St Louis, where he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings. The thing is, the Cardinals are awful against left-handed starters, so I'm not buying that as a thing to come. Keep in mind that Ryu is 2-5 with a 4.29 ERA in 8 starts overall this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Blue Jays vs. A's
Play: A's -102
Toronto is playing much better of late and have a chance here to get back to .500 after that dreaded 2-11 start. While I think the Blue Jays are going to eventually hit that mark and be a factor in the AL East, I don't like this spot for them. Toronto is coming off a grueling 3-2 win at home over the rival Yankees to earn a split in their 4-game series.
I believe the Blue Jays come out flat here after traveling across the country and to taking on a bad team like the A's. Key here is that Oakland is sending out one of the best starters in the AL in Sean Manaea, who has just kept getting better. Manaea has a 3.91 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 9 starts, but owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last 3 starts and those 3 outings came at home against Red Sox then on the road against the Yankees and Indians.
It's also worth pointing out he's taking on a Blue Jays offense that has scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 and are averaging just 3.7 runs/game and hitting .228 as a team against a left-handed starter.