Doc's Sports
Toronto at Oakland
Play: Toronto -105
The Toronto Blue Jays head to O.co Coliseum on Monday, June 5, 2017 to take on the Oakland Athletics. The expected starting pitchers are J.A. Happ for the Blue Jays and Sean Manaea for the Athletics.
The odds for this matchup have Toronto at +105 and Oakland at -115. The Blue Jays have a 27-26-3 over/under mark and a 26-30-0 run line record. The Athletics are 27-28-0 against the run line and have a 30-25-0 over/under record.
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Blue Jays have a 27-29 overall record this season. Starting pitcher J.A. Happ has a 0-3 record with an earned run average of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.20. He has 23 strikeouts over his 20 innings pitched and he's given up 21 hits. He allows 9.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.09. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.05 and they have given up 179 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .232 against the bullpen and they've struck out 228 hitters and walked 77 batters. As a team, Toronto allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 9 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.22. The Blue Jays pitchers collectively have given up 487 base hits and 237 earned runs. They have allowed 72 home runs this season, ranking them 8th in the league. Toronto as a pitching staff has walked 192 batters and struck out 504. They have walked 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.34 and their FIP as a unit is 4.17.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Toronto is hitting .245, good for 20th in the league. The Blue Jays hold a .415 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312, which is good for 23rd in baseball. They rank 20th in MLB with 8.3 hits per game. Kevin Pillar is hitting .269 with an on-base percentage of .324. He has 59 hits this season in 219 at bats with 13 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .434 and an OPS+ of 101. Jose Bautista is hitting .243 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .353. He has totaled 49 hits and he has driven in 28 men in 202 at bats. His OPS+ is 110 while his slugging percentage is at .436. The Blue Jays have 465 hits, including 88 doubles and 76 home runs. Toronto has walked 173 times so far this season and they have struck out 431 times as a unit. They have left 355 men on base and have a team OPS of .728. They score 4.39 runs per contest and have scored a total of 246 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Oakland has a 24-31 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.91, Sean Manaea has a 4-3 record and a 1.03 WHIP. He has 54 strikeouts over the 48.1 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 31 hits. He allows 5.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.31. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.68 and they have given up 179 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .249 against the Athletics bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 165 batters and walked 73 opposing hitters. As a team, Oakland allows 8.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. They are 23rd in the league in team earned run average at 4.57. The Athletics pitchers as a team have surrendered 457 base knocks and 244 earned runs this season. They have given up 58 home runs this year, which ranks 27th in Major League Baseball. Oakland as a staff has walked 180 hitters and struck out 420 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.32 while their FIP as a staff is 4.14.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .235, good for 26th in the league. The Athletics hold a .426 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .304, which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 29th in MLB with 7.8 hits per contest. Jed Lowrie comes into this matchup batting .295 with an OBP of .363. He has 59 hits this year along with 20 RBI in 200 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .490 with an OPS+ of 135. Yonder Alonso is hitting .299 this season and he has an OBP of .399. He has collected 43 hits in 144 at bats while driving in 34 runs. He has an OPS+ of 195 and a slugging percentage of .688. The Athletics as a unit have 428 base hits, including 94 doubles and 82 homers. Oakland has walked 175 times this year and they have struck out on 508 occasions. They have had 346 men left on base and have an OPS of .730. They have scored 4.05 runs per game and totaled 223 runs this season.
ASA
Phillies vs. Braves
Play:Phillies +109
The Phillies have won back to back games for the first time since late April! Coincidentally, that was a 6-game winning streak in late April for the Phils that included a 3-game sweep of these Braves. While Atlanta will be out for revenge here as a result, the problem for the Braves is the fact that Bartolo Colon will be toeing the rubber this evening. Atlanta has lost Colon's last two starts by a combined score of 18 to 7 and Colon has a 2.40 WHIP in his last 3 starts! That means Colon is allowing an average of about 5 baserunners every 2 innings! This could be our last chance to take advantage of the fact that Colon is still starting as this could be his final shot in the rotation. We'll step in here and grab some underdog value with Philadelphia. Even though the Phillies have certainly struggled this season, the Braves haven't been much better and Nick Pivetta could be a difference maker for the Phillies here. He has allowed a total of only 8 hits in his last 2 starts and each outing he has come up just one out short of completing 5 innings. The point is that he appears closer and closer to his breakthrough start where he gives the Phils a solid 6 or 7 and this could be it! He allowed only 3 hits in his most recent start and he has struck out 21 in 19 innings since moving into the rotation. The money line on this game was in the -130 range and has dropped. Public money doesn't bet the last place Phillies folks! In other words, some sharp money is coming on the Phils in this one.
Jesse Schule
Miami vs. Chicago
Play: Miami +109
The Cubs host Miami in Game 1 of a three game set at Wrigley tonight, and these two teams are a lot closer than most would have expected. The Fish have won seven of eight while the Cubs have lost six of their last nine overall.
Dan Straily will toe the slab for the Fish, and he's been dealing. Straily (4-3, 3.56 ERA) struck out 10 batters while allowing just one earned run in a home win over Philly his last time out. He's won three straight starts, and two of his last three on the road.
The Cubs hand the ball to Eddie Butler, who was roughed up in San Diego in his last start. Butler (2-1, 4.42 ERA) allowed six runs on seven hits and three walks over just 4 1/3 innings in a 6-2 loss at PETCO. He's really struggled with his control, walking 13 batters in just 18 innings pitched over four starts.
The Marlins are 6-1 in their last seven games versus a right-handed starter, and they've hammered Butler in the past. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA lifetime versus the Fish.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +125 over NASHVILLE
Pittsburgh appears to be gassed at times. They are not peaking and do not have the same energy as they had last year. They are getting by on talent and determination but their legs have not been there for several stretches during these playoffs. Meanwhile, the Preds are energized and they’re feeding off their frenzied fans. It would not surprise us one bit if Nashville won Game 2 and tied this series up. It wouldn’t surprise anyone. It wouldn’t surprise us if Loretta Lynn sang the National Anthem tonight alongside the ghost of Johnny Cash. The atmosphere is electric to be sure with Gary Bettman being the only thing that looks out of place at that arena. It’s hard not to get caught up in it but Pittsburgh is resilient and always seem to make the right adjustments. The Pens have the superior goaltending too and that’s the basis for this choice.
It’s not rocket science. The Pens won Game 1 because Pekka Rinne was awful. The Pens won Game 2 because Pekka Rinne was awful and even got yanked. The Predators won Game 3 because Pekka Rinne had a good game and because the Predators scored a spirit crushing goal with 22 seconds left in the second period to take a 3-1 lead into the third. When a team dominates in basketball, they win. When a team dominates in football, they win. When a pitcher dominates in baseball, he and his team win. In hockey, it’s not like that. When a team dominates in hockey, they lose more often than in any sport and it’s not even close because goaltending is the number one deciding factor in the outcome of games. One could go through every series over the past 20 years or however long you want to and come up with the same conclusion.
Why didn’t Winnipeg, Dallas or Carolina make the playoffs this year? Why didn’t Calgary make the playoffs last year? In the first two games of this series, Matt Murray stopped 60 of 64 shots for a .938 save percentage, while Pekka Rinne only stopped 28 of 36 shots for a .778 save percentage. That’s a 160 point difference in save percentage so again, it’s not rocket science as to why Pittsburgh won. The media (and many experts) insist that Pekka Rinne is a top-notch goaltender but that’s laughable. He’s not. He’s huge and he’s experienced but he’s not reliable and he’s constantly fighting the puck. Great goaltenders don’t get pulled. Rinne has been yanked often over the past two years. Great goaltenders don’t have stretches of 10 games in which their save percentage is under .880 in at least half of them. Rinne has had seven such stretches over the past two years. Every goaltender in the NHL has great games. Kari Lehtonen of the Stars had several this year but he was also pulled numerous times and is considered to be one of the weakest goaltenders in the league. The same goes for guys like Antti Niemi, Michael Hutchinson, Cam Ward, Connor Hellebuyck, Steve Mason and others. Great goaltenders don’t allow soft goals frequently. Weak goaltenders allow soft goals constantly. Pekka Rinne is the latter and that’s why the Penguins are worthy of a bet. It’s not rocket science.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco -1½ +140 over MILWAUKEE
Alright, let’s try this again. Last week we cited Washington as a sucker play when they were a -130 favorite with Strasburg on the hill in Oakland. Washington won 13-3 so it wasn’t much of sucker play at all but that soft line appeared too easy. We’ll put that to the test again here.
That San Francisco is favored here makes no sense either. Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central and they’re also 15-10 at home while the Giants are in last place in the NL West and they have 10 lousy road wins in 31 tries. Next, Jeff Samardzija is 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA while Junior Guerra is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA after two starts. Guerra has as many wins in three starts as Samardzija has in 11. The Giants are also coming off a weekend series in Philadelphia in which they lost the last two against the then coldest team in baseball with MLB’s worst record while the Brewers just split with the Dodgers and could’ve won three of four after losing 2-1 in 12 innings in the opener of that series with Clayton Kershaw on the hill. Again, San Fran favored here makes no sense. The oddsmakers are counting on a huge game from Samardzija and they might just be right. Under those ugly surface stats, Samardzija has the third best xERA in the game at 2.99. He has a sick BB/K split of 11/84 in 72 frames, which bodes well here against a Brewers team that has struck out more times than any team in the game except Tampa Bay. Over his last 33 innings, Samardzija has walked one batter and struck out 38. Dude is dealing it but has been the unluckiest pitcher in the game and if things truly do even out over time, the Giants are in line to win this one going away.
The oddmakers were wrong last week when the house got buried in that aforementioned game in Oakland. They aren’t likely to be wrong again here. Chances are great that you’ll get a better price by game time after the market eats up the Crew at home taking back a price. Milwaukee may even be favored by dinner time so we’ll wait until then to pull the trigger here and perhaps we’ll play the Giants on the money line and not the run line. We’ll update this later on and tweet it out when we do.
OAKLAND -101 over Toronto
The Blue Jays are good. There is no question that they are a threat in the AL East and they also have to be feeling pretty damn good about where they are right now considering how bad they started. However, this is a difficult spot for them after winning yesterday to complete a 2/2 split with the Yanks over the weekend. The Jays rallied late from a 2-0 deficit yesterday to win it 3-2. It was an important win for the Jays but it was also a draining series. With the first place Yanks in town, the Jays played four games in succession to sellout crowds of 46,000+. It was a playoff like atmosphere and now they go from that to playing in Oakland. Even if the Jays don’t suffer a letdown here, they are still in tough.
The Athletics are 16-12 at home. It may also surprise you to learn that they have hit the fourth most homers in the league just behind the Astros, Rays and Nationals. That could bode well here against J.A. Happ. While Happ has induced more ground balls this year (48%) and struck out 23 batters in 20 innings, he has allowed harder contact (34%) in 2017. Happ missed almost six weeks with elbow inflammation and returned to the rotation last week with just four innings of work against Cincinnati. He allowed two jacks, three runs, walked three and struck out three and is likely to be on a strict pitch count here as well. 20 innings is not a lot to go on but Happ has been around for years. Last season he maintained a new mix (heavy fastball/slider and sprinkled in curve/change) but outside of his wacky win total, not much else changed. Age, ERA/xERA gap and just average command should temper his price but it hasn’t. He’ll very likely come back to the pack.
Sean Manaea has filthy stuff and continues to create swings and misses (15%) consistently with his change-up (19%) and slider (25%). The lefty has allowed eight earned runs in 22 home innings (3.27 ERA) and his ground ball tilt (51%) plays well at Oakland Coliseum. While fewer first-pitch strikes (58%) have contributed to more walks, his outstanding skills make him worth targeting. Toronto almost always struggles against pitchers with wicked sliders (as do most teams). Sean Manaea entered 2017 as one of the best breakout targets in the game. He started to produce at that level in May (2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) and those marks weren't flukes. They were backed by all of his underlying numbers and now we get him in a favorable spot at a great price.
Will Rogers
St. Louis at Chicago
Pick: St. Louis
The set-up: The Cubs returned home off an 0-6 West Coats trip and the Cards were in the wrong place at the wrong time in this past weekend's three-game series at Wrigley. The Cards dropped a 7-6 decision Sunday night, as the Cubs completed a three-game sweep. St. Louis continues its seven-game road trip with the first of four tonight in Cincinnati, having lost six of its last seven contests away from home. The Reds hope to avoid a three-game skid at home, after losing 6-5 (12 innings) on Saturday and 13-8 on Sunday to the Braves. Cincinnati has now lost four of its last six at Great American Ball Park to fall to 15-15 at home on the season.
The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (4-4 & 3.08 ERA) gets the nod for the Cards and Asher Wojciechowski (1-0 & 5.63) for the Reds. Martinez is another in a long line of St. Louis relievers turned starter. He won 14 games in 2015 and 16 last year. He's a modest 4-4 in 11 starts so far in 2017 (team is 6-5) but he's pitched well, entering this contest with a string of seven consecutive quality starts. He allowed one run on four hits over eight innings in Wednesday's 2-1 victory over the Dodgers, while recording nine strikeouts for the second straight outing. He has given up more than three runs in only two of his 11 start this year. Martinez fell to 5-2 in 17 career appearances (six starts / team is 5-1 and he owns a 3.60 ERA) against Cincinnati on April 9, when he was tagged for six runs (five earned) over five innings. Wojciechowski made his first major-league start since 2015 with Houston on Tuesday and escaped with a no-decision after yielding four runs and four hits (three HRs) over four innings at Toronto (Jays won 6-4). He began the 2017 season (his first season with Cincinnati) by making a pair of relief appearances in which he gave up two runs - one earned - and three hits in four frames. Wojciechowski has faced St. Louis.
The pick: Wojciechowski had been released from a minor league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the spring but three weeks into the season the Reds called, needing a starter at Triple-A. He went on to post a 1.40 ERA in five starts with the Louisville Bats, earning a promotion. Nice story but Martinez has proven to be a quality starter over the last two-plus- seasons.
Buster Sports
Giants at Brewers
Play: Under 8.5
The SF Giants start a 4 game series in Milwaukee tonight as they continue their 7 game road trip.The starting pitchers are for the Giants RH Jeff Samardzija (1-7, 4.63 ERA) and he will face the Brewers RH Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.84 ERA) Samardzija has been hard luck on the won/loss record as his 1-7 record shows but he has been pitching decent at times this year. In his last 3 starts he has a 2.84 ERA with a WHIP just over 1. As for Guerra he has pitched well for the Brewers since joining the club in 2016. Guerra was hurt in the first game of the year and this will be his third start since coming off the DL. His ERA in 2 starts in May was a spectacular 0.77. The oddsmaker has this line at 8 1/2 at the time of this writing and we will be on the UNDER here. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 8-2-1 in Guerra's last 11 home starts and the fact that the UNDER is 9-1-1 in Samardzija's last 11 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Bruce Marshall
Toronto at Oakland
Pick: Oakland
Toronto salvaged a split of the 4-game weekend set vs. the Yankees and now makes the long trip to Oakland for this midweek series vs. the A's. Now the Blue Jays have to run into hot Oakland starter Sean Manaea, who has won three straight starts, and allowed ust one run and 7 hits while striking out 17 with just 2 walks over 14 IP in his last two starts, At the same time Toronto is having trouble getting more than five innings from JA Happ since his return from the DL.
3G-Sports
Washington vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -132
My free play today is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals. Great spot for the surging Dodgers, who have won 13 of their last 16 games and return home after splitting a four-game set in St. Louis and winning 2 of 3 in Milwaukee. I like Ryu, who is back in the rotation because of Alex Wood’s injury. He followed a four-inning save by allowing a mere one run in six innings against St. Louis his last time out - his best start of the year - and tonight will step up against the powerful Nationals. Hyun-Jin Ryu is a tough lefty with a great ERA here at home.
Chris Jordan
After losing a marathon on national television last night, in Chicago against the Cubs, the St. Louis didn't get to home. Instead they traveled to Cincinnati for the first time this season, and will start another rivalry series.
My free pick for Monday is on the underdog Reds, as they're going to take advantage of the reeling Redbirds, who arrive mired in a three-game slide.
Over their past 11 meetings, starting last September with a 9-1 Reds win, the teams have alternated victories. And with St. Louis hosting the Reds for two series earlier this season, I think Cincinnati is catching the Cardinals at a good time.
I know the Reds have lost five of their past six games after getting hammered by the Atlanta Braves 13-8 in the finale of a three-game series on yesterday, but that just means they'll be even more hungry, and can satisfy their hunger with a win over a division rival.
I'm going to play Cincy in this series opener.
5* REDS
Jeff Benton
Monday night free play release is the Phillies and Braves to play Over the total with Pivetta and Colon serving them up.
Philadelphia makes their maiden voyage to Sun Trust Park having played Over the total in 5 of their last 7 games, while Atlanta has played Overs in their last pair of games, and they are 8-3-1 Over the total in their last 12 games overall.
Nick Pivetta's season ERA is over 5, while Bartolo Colon takes a 6.99 ERA for the year into his 12th start of the year.
I expect the hits and the runs to add up tonight.
Phillies-Braves Over the total.
4* PHILADELPHIA-ATLANTA OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals, and I want you to list the scheduled starting pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu and Gio Gonzalez.
Great spot for the surging Dodgers, who have won 13 of their last 16 games and return home after splitting a four-game set in St. Louis and winning 2 of 3 in Milwaukee.
Meanwhile, Washington continues a west coast swing that has taken the Nationals through the Bay Area, for three game sets with San Francisco and Oakland. The Nats are 5-1 thus far on this trip, but this will be the toughest stop on the junket.
I like Ryu, who is back in the rotation because of Alex Wood’s injury. He followed a four-inning save by allowing a mere one run in six innings against St. Louis his last time out - his best start of the year - and tonight will step up against the powerful Nationals.
Meanwhile, Gonzalez opens the month after posting a dismal 4.37 ERA in May, and could be in store for a beating against the same team that chased him from the NLDS last October.
I'll take the Dodgers and list both in this one.
4* DODGERS
Brad Wilton
Monday night's comp play is the blistering Astros to win another, this time at the expense of the Kansas City Royals.
Houston has won 10 straight games entering play tonight, and starter Mike Fiers is coming into this start off a solid road win at Minnesota. In that one, Fiers worked 6 innings of 2 run ball with 8 strikeouts along the way.
Compare that to counterpart Ian Kennedy who is 0-5 this season and his team is just 2-7 when he starts. Kind of makes you wonder why Houston is not a bigger priced favorite tonight, doesn't it?!?!
Go ahead and lay it with the 'Stros.
4* HOUSTON
Jack Brayman
My free play for Monday night is on the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics staying Under at Oakland Coliseum.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are J.A. Happ and Sean Manaea. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
That's because Happ returned from the disabled list in his last outing and allowed just two runs over four innings. He was limited to 81 pitches since he hadn't started a game since mid-April, but I'm thinking he will be closer to 90-95 for this outing.
Happ will use his full arsenal to neutralize the A's and keep their bats in check.
With Manaea, he's enjoying a personal three-game win-streak, during which he's allowed just three earned runs over 19 innings. He’s gone seven innings in back-to-back starts, striking out a combined 17 against the Yankees and Indians, and now gets a Toronto team that will play its 11th game in as many days - all at home - and now has to play at 10:05 p.m. east coast time.
Manaea will be pitching against a tired lineup, and it will show.
Play this one low.
2* Blue Jays/Athletics Under
Harry Bondi
TORONTO (-105) over Oakland
Blue Jays are finally performing as expected this season winning 10-3 of their last 13 games. Oakland southpaw Sean Manaea has pitched well lately but the A’s bullpen is depleted after giving up over 40 runs in 4 games versus Washington. Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ has never lost in 9 starts vs Oakland, take the Jays!