DAVE COKIN
PENGUINS @ SHARKS
PLAY: PENGUINS +120
In watching the first three games of this series, it’s my conclusion that the Pittsburgh Penguins are simply better than the San Jose Sharks. The games have all been down to the wire thrillers, but there’s no arguing with the territorial edge the Penguins have enjoyed in each game.
The shots on goal in this series are now 113-74. That’s clearly not the only stat to look at, but it’s a pretty telling one. Now we also get some situational numbers coming into play. Pittsburgh has been a monster when rested off a loss all year. They’re 23-6-2-1 in this scenario, and I sure don’t want to play against those stats.
I don’t see this being any kind of cinch as the Sharks surely gained confidence winning Game Three and they’re suddenly playing well at home after being road warriors most of the season. But I just can’t see San Jose being priced where they are for this game, and I believe the way to play here is money line on the Penguins as the underdog.
Sleepyj
Colorado +131
I'm not sold on Bolsinger here for the Dodgers...I think he will have a tough time here navigating through this Rockies lineup...IMO this is a pitching mismatch here...Dodgers looked great last night when they bopped Atlanta with Wisler on the mound for the Braves....Braves clearly wanted no part of using the bullpen early and Wisler was serving up meatballs for the Dodgers offense last night...I doubt Chatwood for the Rockies does that here tonight...Chatwood has been solid all season...When his ERA comes into play, his ERA get a bump up at home..That's not uncommon being at Coors field..Over the years it's tough to find a Rockies pitcher who's ERA is ever in the 2.99 area..Well Chatwood has that exact ERA and he has been solid on the road this year....In fact Chatwood has not lost a road start this year and is 4-0...He earned a No Dec. in one game, but the Rockies on the road w/ Chatwood are 5-0 this year..Facing Bolsinger tonight gives us a very good chance here...Checks out what Chatwood does when he gets a second look at a team this year...He faced a few teams twice and the 2nd time around he was much better...AZ looked better the 2nd time around..Improvement though shows with Chatwood...Rockies lineup is a tough lineup to deal with and so is the Dodgers if it's hitting well...I think we have a pitching mismatch here tonight and I'll side with Chatwood and the Rockies at a decent dog price.
Atlanta / San Diego Over 7.5
My numbers have this game at 8o20...So 7.5 looks to be of value here..Two pitchers on the mound that I can't trust one bit..Even with the lack of power and bats in these lineups, something just doesn't add up here for me..I'll put a unit on the over here.
Ben Burns
Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -118
The Jays have had their way with the Tigers the past couple of seasons; Toronto has won nine of the past 12 meetings, including each of the past four. The Tigers figure to have the advantage in Monday's opener though.
The Tigers paid a heavy price to get Fulmer, the centerpiece of the Cespedes trade. Now we're starting to see why. While Happ's numbers are respectable, its hard to compare to what Fulmer is currently doing. Over his last three starts, Fulmer has allowed a single earned run in 22 1/3 innings. During that span, he's allowed only nine hits and four walks, while striking out 22. He's gone 7 2/3 innings in each of his last two starts, allowing exactly ZERO runs. Fulmer will have the advantage of starting against the Jays for the first time and all signs point to continued success.
Rob Vinciletti
Penguins vs. Sharks
Play: Sharks -133
The Sharks won game 3 here to get back into the series and they are now 12-3 at home vs Pittsburgh. Road teams up 2-1 in game 4 where the home team won the first 3 games are 57-72 all time in playoff history. San Jose is 8-4 in game 4 when down 2-1 and 23-8 vs winning teams. We will back the Sharks to tie things up tonight.
Mike Lundin
Angels vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -148
The New York Yankees are back in the Bronx following a 10-game road trip. They're 40-17 in their last 57 home games following a road trip of seven or more days, and I like the Yankees as they open a four-game set against the Los Angeles Angels Monday night.
Masahiro Tanaka (3-1, 2.78) will take the ball for New York. Tanaka fanned 11 in 6 1/3 frames in his lone career appearance against the Angels but did not factor in the decision of a 3-2 win back in 2014. The right-hander has allowed just a pair of earned runs in 20 innings in his last three starts.
The Halos turn to Matt Shoemaker (3-6, 5.50 ERA) who has had better results lately following an atrocious start to the year, and he's off three consecutive quality starts. Shoemaker is still putting plenty of runners on base though with 17 hits allowed in his last two starts alone, and his 1.43 WHIP pales in comparison to Tanaka's 1.00 WHIP.
Angels are 2-9 in Shoemakers last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and the Yankees are 9-2 in their last 11 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Angels are 8-25 in the last 33 meetings in New York and 2-6 in the last eight meetings overall.
Marc Lawrence
Angels vs. Yankees
Play: Angels +148
Edges - Angles: Matt Shoemaker 13-7 last 20 away team starts, including 3-1 in his away career team starts during June; and visiting team 7-3 in Shoemaker’s starts this season. Yankees: Masahiro 1-3 last 4 team starts during June. With Shoemaker in spotless KW form with 31 K’s and zero BB’s his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play in the Angels.
Art Aronson
Indians vs. Mariners
Play: Over 8½
The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (3-2, 4.27 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Wednesday. Bauer has been serviceable this year, going 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile James Paxton (0-1, 7.36) who remains in the rotation despite getting destroyed by the Padres in his season debut, allowing eight runs off ten hits over just 3.2 innings on Wednesday. With ace Felix Hernandez on the DL with injury, the M’s are forced to give Paxton another shot. These teams have been hitting the cover off the ball lately, so consider a second look at the OVER in this one.
Bob Harvey
Houston at Texas
Play: Texas -108
Two of the hottest teams in the American League, the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, meet tonight in the opener of a four-game series in the Lone Star State. The Rangers will send Colby Lewis (-113, 9.5) to the mound while the Astros will counter with Mike Fiers. Texas, which has taken the last 10 meetings in Arlington, has already swept Houston twice this season, outscoring them by a 29-14 margin.
The Astros (27-30, 25-32 RL) have won eight of its last nine games but remain three games behind the West-leading Rangers. Houston swept a weekend set from Oakland with Evan Gattis leading the way. Gattis went deep in all three contests versus the A’s and is 7 for 22 (.318) with four homers and nine RBIs in his last five games. Houston has won four in a row on the road, but Texas has taken nine consecutive home series.
The Rangers, (33-22, 32-23 RL) have won 12 of its last 15 contests including a weekend sweep of Seattle in which they outscored the M’s by a 20-9 margin. The Rangers have now won a franchise record-tying nine consecutive home series.
Fiers (3-3, 4.84 ERA) gave up two runs in seven innings of a 2-1 loss to the Rangers on May 21 and has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Lewis (5-0, 3.09 ERA) has emerged victorious in each of his last three outings overall and 10 of his last 11 decisions versus the Astros while posting a 2.50 ERA in his past 13 starts against the club.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. San Jose
Pick: Under
The Pittsburgh Penguins made the most of their home ice advantage in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Finals, but the San Jose Sharks took one game back with a 3-2 overtime victory here at SAP Center Saturday night. Game 4 will likely be even tighter than the previous three contests.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Goaltending - Both these young netminders are at the top of their game, and so far in this series they have rarely been beaten when they can see the puck. Most of the goals in this series have been of the "garbage" variety. Screen shots, deflections etc.
2. Special Teams - The Sharks were a rare 0-for-3 on the man advantage in Saturday's game, while the Pens are 0-for-6 on the power play in the series. The referees have been letting them play, resulting in fewer chances with the power-play.
3. X-Factor - The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings, and Pittsburgh has gone under in six straight in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Jim Feist
Mets at Pirates
Pick: Under
The Mets took two of three games from the Marlins, holding Miami to just six runs over three games. The pitching staff is starting to look much more like last year's dominant group. Steven Martz has been a very pleasant surprise for the Mets, posting a 7-1 record and 2.60 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Martz has had eight consecutive quality starts. The Pirates are trying to climb back into the NL Central race, as they trail the Cubs by 9.5 games now. The Pirates lost on Sunday to the Angels, 5-4, making that five losses in their last six games. Jonathon Niese starts today with a 5-2 record and 4.36 ERA. Niese has been very good lately, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. These clubs have gone UNDER in 12 of the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh. With two very good pitchers on the hill today I look for that to continue here.
Larry Ness
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Rockies snapped a four-game skid with Sunday's 10-3 win over San Diego, moving to 25-31 on the season. Colorado heads to LA to open a three-game series against the Dodgers, who moved to 31-27 after Sunday's 12-6 victory over the Braves. The Rockies are looking for back-to-back wins for only the second time since the team won FIVE in a row back from May 11 through May 17. As for the Dodgers, they have a chance to win four in a row for the second time this season.
The pitching matchup features Colorados Tyler Chatwood (6-4, 2.99 ERA) and LAs Mike Bolsinger (1-2, 4.20 ERA). Chatwood (from the Los Angeles area) had Tommy John surgery after his fourth start in 2014 and missed all of last season while recovering. He gave up one earned run over his previous two starts combined, before a hiccup Wednesday, when he allowed five runs (four earned) in 5.2 innings of a 7-2 loss to Cincinnati. He also walked a season high-tying three in his shortest start since going a season-low four innings in a 4-1 loss to the Dodgers back on April 23. "He wasn't real crisp," Colorado manager Walt Weiss said. "Location was a little off, especially with the fastball. Got in a lot of tough counts. Wasn't as sharp as we've seen him lately."
However, he should be happy to be back out on the road after four of his last five outings came in Colorado. Chatwood is 4-0 with a major league-best 0.53 ERA and hasn't allowed a homer in five starts outside of Coors Field (Rockies are a perfect 5-0). In stark contrast, his ERA is 5.30 in six starts (hes 2-4) at Coors Field! Its still VERY early but the only pitcher to finish a season with a sub-1.00 ERA with at least five starts on the road is St Louis legend Bob Gibson with a 0.81 mark in 1968. The New York Mets' Steven Matz's 1.32 road ERA is the next best behind Chatwood.
Bolsinger has made three starts in two stints with the Dodgers this season. He hasn't thrown more than 85 pitches in any of them and gave up two runs and two hits in five innings of Wednesday's 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. "First start was a little iffy, but other than that it's actually been feeling pretty good," Bolsinger said. "It's a progression every outing. It seems to be getting better and better. Definitely looking forward to Monday." His lone victory of 2016 came in his only start at Dodger Stadium this year, beating Cincinnati on May 24. He's 5-3 with a 3.26 ERA at Chavez Ravine since joining Los Angeles, including six scoreless innings against the Rockies there on May 17, 2015.
Anyone really think Chatwoods headed for 1968-like Bob Gibson season Heck, does anyone think hes even in the class of the Mets Matz Take the Dodgers.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Texas
Pick: Houston
These AL West rivals are both coming off impressive weekend performances. Houston swept Oakland while Texas did the same to Seattle. Speaking of sweeps, the Rangers have already done that twice to the Astros this season. But Monday's opener looks like a great spot for the Astros to get revenge, at least from where I sit.
For a second straight year, the oddsmakers appear to be greatly undervaluing the Rangers. They led all of baseball in net units last year (+30.7) and are doing the same again here in 2016 (+16.9). The public certainly appears to love them here (82% of tickets written), but curiously the line is moving in the other direction. That tells me that there's definitely some "sharp" money on the road team here. It's probably time to "sell high" on Texas, who has lost only three times in its last 15 games. Despite the YTD performance at the betting window, I'm not convinced that the Rangers are this good.
Houston is also a hot club right now, having won 11 of their last 13 games. They've been one of the bigger disappointments so far, but there's still a lot of time to turn things around. Starting tonight will be Michael Fiers, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last seven starts. He was a bit of a hard-luck loser in the last series w/ Texas as he allowed just two runs in 7 IP w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. But it was a 2-1 final. I like Fiers better than Texas' starter Colby Lewis, who allowed 6 ER in his last home start. It's time for the Rangers to cool off, plain and simple.
Martin Griffiths
Bolivia vs Panama
Play: Draw +220
Panama face Bolivia in the opening Group D fixture of the Copa America, with the two sides set to fight out a tightly contested match.
Panama are undoubtedly one of the minnow countries competing this year, and have a poor record in recent tournaments. Los Canaleros laboured to third place in the 2015 Gold Cup, drawing five of their six games and rarely threatening other sides. While Hernan Dario Gomez’s squad are capable of mounting a somewhat organised defence, their ageing attack leaves much to be desired. Panama’s two most prolific strikers on the international stage, Blas Perez and Luis Tejeda, have struggled to make much of an impact lately, with just a single win in their past five matches.
Bolivia enter the tournament on a terrible run of form, losing nine of their past ten fixtures, often by significant margins. In preparation for the Copa America, Bolivia faced hosts the United States in a friendly, and were defeated 4-0. However, La Verde have mainly been playing against much-higher ranked teams and demonstrated some general improvement, including scoring twice against Colombia in March. Although they may not be able to secure victory over Panama, the two sides are closely ranked and they should be able to at least manage to earn a point.
Overall, I predict that Panama and Bolivia will both be eager to secure points in a difficult Group D, but that nothing will separate the teams and the match will end in a draw.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers -120
Detroit is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Blue Jays. The Tigers come into this series off a 3-game sweep at home against the White Sox, where they defeated Rodon, Sale and Quintana. They are really swinging the bats well, recording 11 or more hits in each of their last 5 games.
Toronto has been playing very well of late, but are due for a bit of a letdown after playing 4 straight series against the Yankees and Red Sox. Blue Jays will give the ball to J.A. Happ, who is 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts, but owns a 4.01 ERA in 4 career starts against the Tigers.
Detroit counters with youngster Michael Fulmer, who after a rough start has started to live up to his potential as a future ace. Fulmer has pitched at least 7 innings in 3 straight starts, allowing just 1 run on 9 hits with 22 strikeouts. Detroit has won 6 of his 7 starts and the impressive thing is just one of those outings came at home.
Tigers are 12-4 in their last 16 home games after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home, 20-8 in their last 28 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game and 7-0 in their last 7 at home against a team with a winning road record. Toronto is 4-11 in their last 15 after scoring 5 or more, 3-8 in Happ's last 11 road starts and 1-5 in his last 6 during Game 1 of a series.
Alex Smart
Angels vs. Yankees
Play: Angels +137
Shoemaker the Halos starter tonight vs the Yankees is on a over powering run, allowing just four runs and striking out 31 batters in the 22 2/3 innings during his last three dominant starts. Shoemaker has struck out 33 batters since his last walk, a franchise record, and looks poised to take advantage of a Zoo crew that is off a tiring 2-7 road trip that has added up to a 3-17 rod run. Now as they take time to get settled again, back home, I expect they will struggle tonight against a hurler who is owning oppositions hitters at this time.
Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.Angels are 14-2 in Shoemakers last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.