Michael Alexander
Indians vs. Mariners
Play: Indians +111
Cleveland remained unbeaten in five outings this month with a 7-0 rout of Kansas City on Sunday, outscoring the defending world champions 25-6 - including 20-2 over the final three contests - en route to a four-game home sweep. In addition to moving 1 1/2 games ahead of the Royals in the American League Central, the Indians improved to 20-13 against opponents with a .500-or-better record. The Mariners were tied with Texas atop the AL West before the start of play on Friday but mustered only nine runs. Seattle starter Paxton yielded four runs (three earned) over 4 2/3 frames in a 5-3 home loss on May 28, 2015 in his lone start versus the Indians.
Wunderdog
Cleveland vs. Seattle
Pick: Cleveland +111
Cleveland has a winning road record and is playing well, winning five in a row. Cleveland hasn't lost in June, off a 7-0 rout of Kansas City on Sunday, outscoring the defending World Champions 25-6, including 20-2 over the final three contests as they completed a four-game sweep. Indians' starter Trevor Bauer (3-2, 4.27 ERA) has been consistent, allowing three runs or less in nine of ten starts while allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. He also sports a 3.63 ERA on the road. The Indians are 11-1 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game, and they face a Seattle squad with a losing home record. The slumping Mariners have lost three in a row scoring nine runs in hitter-friendly Texas while allowing 20 runs. They've also lost seven of 10 and go with James Paxton (0-1, 7.36 ERA), off a 14-6 loss at San Diego allowing 10 hits and eight runs in 3+ innings. The last time he faced Cleveland he got pounded, too, allowing eight hits, three walks, and four runs in 4+ innings.
Scott Rickenbach
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
Certainly the Mets Steven Matz has better numbers than the Pirates Jonathan Niese in this battle of southpaws. However, it appears that far too much weight is being given to the pitching match-up here and not enough weight is being given to how these teams will match-up. Simply put, the Pirates have been worlds better in games against left-handed starters this season. In those games, Pittsburgh is averaging 5.6 runs per game which is exactly double of the 2.8 runs per game that New York has averaged in their games against lefty starters. The Mets lost 1-0 yesterday and that was the 6th time in their last 10 games that they have been held to 2 runs or less. The Pirates are also off of a home loss yesterday but they are still 5-2 in their last 7 home games and Pittsburgh has averaged 6.4 runs per game in these 7 games. It's no fluke either as the Pirates have averaged 10.6 hits per game in these 7 contests. Though one might expect the Mets to bounce back since they are off of a shutout loss yesterday, the opposite has been true as New York is 10-20 the past three seasons when they are off of a shutout loss. The Pirates are 8-3 this season and 25-9 the last 3 seasons when they are at home and the game has a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Look for the Bucs to improve to 6-2 in Monday games this season.
Kevin Rogers
Braves at Padres
Play: Braves
The Braves don't win often, but when Williams Perez takes the mound, they have found success. Atlanta has won six of Perez's last seven starts, including recent home underdog victories over the Giants and Marlins. Perez has pitched into the sixth inning or later in four straight outings, while allowing 2 ER in three of the last five starts. Christian Friedrich counters for San Diego, as the southpaw has won his last two starts, both in the underdog role against the D-backs and Mariners, while getting a combined 24 runs of support. I'll back the Braves here as a dog to beat the Padres.
Dave Essler
Arizona +110
So the D-Backs have a happy flight back from Chicago and the Rays have a happy flight from Minnesota. I guess we could think that with no familiarity here that Archer is the better pitcher, but I'm not sure with that bullpen and no DH (meaning unless the Rays are winning he IS getting PH for) that I can go there. This could be a F5 under - and although the D-Backs pen found themselves Sunday in Chicago, one has to wonder if that's an anomaly or the new norm. Arizona and/or under at this point.
Jeff Alexander
Astros -114
The fact Texas comes into this game 21-9 at home and fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Mariners at home over the weekend and are are a dog to Michael Fiers and the Astros smells like a trap. No surprise that the public is ALL OVER the Rangers in this one. I'm going against the grain and taking Houston, who is 11-2 in their last 13. The Astros are scoring 6.6 runs/game and giving up just 3.0 runs/game over their last 7. Rangers' starter Colby Lewis does have an ugly 4.50 ERA in 6 home starts and has given up 9 runs on 17 hits in his last two home starts against Houston.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -111
The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the best teams to back at home ever since Buck Showalter took over. They are 21-11 at home this season. They are consistently undervalued at home as small favorites, which is the case today against the defending champion Royals.
The Royals are 0-5 in their last five road games. Kansas City is 1-4 in Danny Duffy's last five road starts. The Orioles are 4-0 in Mike Wright's last four starts overall.
Baltimore is 70-43 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 15-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last two seasons.
Brandon Lee
Mets -109
New York is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Pirates in Monday's series opener. The Mets Steven Matz is simply not getting enough respect here. The 25-year-old would be an ace on most staffs, as he is 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in 9 starts. He's been absolutely dominant on the road, going 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 4 road starts. Pittsburgh will send out Jon Niese, who has pitched well of late, but still comes in with a 4.36 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 11 starts. Niese was far from sharp in his last outing, lasting just 5 innings after giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks. New York is 14-2 in their last 16 against the NL Central, 16-5 in their last 21 against a team with a winning record and 21-7 in their last 28 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Ray Monohan
Houston Astros -114
The Astros and Rangers begin a weekday series and it's Houston who has value in the series opener. Houston has been a hot baseball team right now, winning 11 of their last 13 as they're finally starting to play like the team everybody expected them to be.
They send out Mike Fiers here, who has been dominant as of late. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. Fiers allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings of work against the Rangers last time he faced them.
Some trends to consider. Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West. Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
This Astros team is hot right now. They still have a giant mountain to climb though and beating teams within their division is certainly something that need to do. Given that, this is a nice spot to back them.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers -115
Rookie Michael Fulmer has impressed this season for the Detroit Tigers. he's 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 7 starts this season. But he has been really good of late, going 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA and 0.582 WHIP in his last 3 starts with 22 K's in 22 1/3 innings. Look for him to continue his success against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight at home. The Blue Jays are 1-7 in Happ's last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Toronto is 3-8 in Happ's last 11 road starts. Detroit is 7-0 in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 5-0 in Fulmer's last 5 starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -1½ +168 over Toronto
The Blue Jays just completed 12 straight games against Boston and New York. They took four of six from the Red Sox and five of six from the Yanks for an overall recored of 9-3 over that important stretch. After labouring for the first two months, the Jays are now four games over .500. However, this is a letdown spot after 12 very intense games against their two most hated rivals. Aside from that, it’s also a pitching mismatch.
J.A. Happ has posted a great 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP after 71 innings but those marks have been the result of a low 27% hit rate and 82% strand rate more than anything else. His base skills have not been good at all: 5.6 K’s/9, 2.8 BB’s/9 and a 42%/23%/35% groundball/line-drive/flyball profile. His 4.21 xERA (4.78 over last five starts) is a more accurate baseline of where his ERA is likely to settle. J.A. Happ is serviceable as a back-end starter but the small take-back on him here suggests he’s very close to being on par with Michael Fulmer when he’s not even close.
Michael Fulmer has posted three consecutive dominant starts. His 9.5 K’s/9, 50% groundball rate, and 3.30 xERA over that span support his recent outings. Fulmer could raise his 57% first-pitch strike rate to help his control but that is his only flaw and it’s correctable. This is a kid that shot up through the minor leagues. His reign of tyranny over Eastern League hitters last year was a product of stifling opponents to a .435 OPS (!) and 11.4 K’s/9. He throws a plus, mid-90s mph sinking fastball, a hard slider which can play up, and an improving change-up and soft curve. Fulmer came to the Tigers in the Yoenis Cespedes deal. Both his strikeout rate and walk rate improved as he made the jump from High-A to Double-A in 2015, giving him the lowest ERA and second lowest xERA in Double-A last year. This kid is major league ready and his stock is about to soar. Buy before that happens.
L.A Angels +136 over N.Y. YANKEES
Every now and then the Yanks will put up a crooked number just like every team in the majors will do from time to time. The Yanks had about 20 scoring chances in Baltimore yesterday and scored once. In three games in Toronto last week, New York scored three times. This is a collection of .220 hitters that cannot be favoured in this range no matter what starter they send out there. You have to score runs to win games and if the Halos can score two or more here, they have a great chance to win. We’re not even going to discuss Masahiro Tanaka because everyone knows who he is and how good he is. This wager is about fading the Yanks and not fading Tanaka.
The Angels just went into Pittsburgh and took two of three from the Pirates while scoring 21 times and doing so without the benefit of the DH. The Angels are swinging some pretty sweet bats right now. Furthermore, Matt Shoemaker is throwing some pretty sweet stuff too. With an ERA of 5.50 after 10 starts, Shoemaker is probably not on many watch lists as we pass the one-third mark of the season. Just two years removed from a 3.04 ERA, is there any indication that he could return to that level? Absolutely.
Unfortunate hit and strand rates (35% and 59% respectively) are to blame for the 2½-run gap between his ERA and xERA. Showmaker’s velocity is way up to 93 MPH and his swing and miss rate is now 14%. In his last start, his swing and miss rate was 19%. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 18%, the highest in the majors over that span. Shoemaker now has a BB/K split of 13/53 in 52 innings. His first-pitch strike rate is elite at 69%. The pendulum is about to swing the other way for Shoemaker. His skills across the board are too good to be carrying an ERA of 5.50 into this start. The best news is that ERA’s influence lines, which is something we will try to take advantage of here. Shoemaker has been better than Tanaka for a month and the Angels offense versus the Yanks offense is equivalent to comparing the Cubs to the Padres. Big overlay here.
Atlanta +120 over SAN DIEGO
The Padres lost 10-3 yesterday. Twice last week they allowed 16 runs in a game on two separate occasions. That’s 42 runs against in three games combined over the past week. Knock out San Diego’s starter early and the floodgates open up. Atlanta has a chance to do just that against Christian Friedrich.
Friedrich has a 2.53 ERA after four appearances, which includes two starts in a row. This is another case of surface stats being misleading, as Friedrich’s xERA is three runs higher than his actual ERA. He’s walked 14 batters and struck out 15. His fastball averages 88 MPH with very little life. His swing and miss rate is 6% and his first-pitch strike rate is horrible at 53%. Friedrich has survived his two starts because of his unsustainable 86% strand rate. His xERA of 5.59 tells his real story.
Williams Perez is not much better than Friedrich. In fact, one could compare their numbers and practically come up with identical results. However, Perez has an elite 62% groundball rate, which keeps his xERA 1½-runs lower than Friedrich’s. Furthermore, Perez’s strand rate of 67% is 20 points lower tha Friedrich's and that is the difference in each pitchers actual ERA. There is another difference too. Atlanta is taking back a tag while one of the worst starters in baseball is spotting one.
ARIZONA +104 over Tampa Bay
Despite losing two of three at Wrigley this past weekend, the Diamondbacks had a pretty good showing there and bring at least a pocket size of momentum into this home series. What sticks out about the Snakes more than anything is their 9-20 record at home, a mark that is sure to be corrected to the good over the next couple of months. As a dog at home, we’ll put that to the test here.
Robbie Ray has posted three-consecutive poor outings so his stock is low but Ray has some strong skills that include an 11% swing and miss rate and 51% groundballs. His 18% hr/f and 38% hit rate hide his 3.87 xERA when compared to his 4.74 ERA. Ray also has 34 K’s over his past 26 innings. This is all nothing new regarding Ray. He’s been the topic of speculation by many publications over the past few months but he has yet to deliver the goods. Only time will tell if that will happen but the talent is there and he’s getting closer.
Chris Archer is a well-known, marquee starter in this league. A slow start is nothing new for Archer and the market is fully aware of that. That market now figures they get him at a bargain price because of said slow start but we’re not so sure. Archer was erratic early in the season, with the look of a power pitcher who was still fighting his stuff or his mechanics in the early going. But as we move into the season's third month, we seemingly have to describe whatever ails Archer as something more serious than a "funk." While he has mixed a few strong outings in with the shaky ones, his log page shows that his rolling 5-start averages for control/strikeouts/command are just now at their worst point of the season. Whatever the problem is here, there's precious little evidence that Archer is making any progress in pitching his way through it. We’re selling.
SPS Investors
Chiago vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Chicago -1.5
The Chicago Cubs travel to Citizen's Bank Stadium for their series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. Chicago should have numerous advantages in this contest as southpaw Jon Lester is scheduled to do battle opposite Adam Morgan.
At the moment, the Chicago Cubs are head and shoulders the best team in the league. They have the best record in baseball and currently own a 9.5 game lead in their division. Heading into this contest they have won four straight and 10 of their last 11. They have been a dominant team all around and even playing on the road hasn't fazed them much as they own an impressive 17-8 in 25 games on the highway this season.
What has been most impressive is not only the fact that they can win away from home, but they have been doing so rather convincingly, outscoring their opponents by an average of 3.2 runs per contest! Pitching has been a strong suit of the Cubs all season long as they are ranked number 1 in the league in both ERA and WHIP! The Cubs have held their last 9 opponents to just an average of 1.89 runs per game.
Jon Lester will take the mound tonight and he has been spectacular this season, going 6-3 with a 2.29 ERA in 11 starts this year. Over his last 3 starts he is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in four starts on the road. He also has spectacular number against the Phillies in his career, having gone a perfect 5-0 with a 1.71 ERA in seven career starts, including 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts at Citizen's Bank Park! To say he should have an edge on the mound in this contest would be an understatement!
Adam Morgan will get the start opposite Lester and could be in for a tough outing tonight. Morgan has struggled this season going 1-4 with a 7.07 ERA in seven starts, including 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA in his last three! He is 0-3 with a 7.84 ERA in four starts at home and just 3-5 with a 5.51 ERA in 12 starts in his career. The Cubs have also battered him in the past as he is 0-2 with a 10.00 in two career starts against them!
The Philadelphia offense has also been stagnant and is a real area of concern. They are currently 29th in the league in scoring, putting up just 3.14 runs per game, while also ranking 29th in hitting at .230. Their collective batting average isn't all that impressive and it gets even worse against left handed pitchers as they hit just.196 versus southpaws. On paper this game is a complete mismatch and the Cubs should have no issues coming away with the victory. While there is not much value backing them at the current odds, to expect them to win this by more than a single run has value, especially since their average winning margin on the road is more than 3 runs! The risk versus reward is definitely there in this contest and Chicago should come away with a convincing win.
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play winner is to stay Under the total in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Three games in the books, and all three have held Under the posted price.
These teams have now played 6 of their last 7 meetings overall Under the total, and I like another lower-scoring game tonight.
Pittsburgh has now played their last 4 this postseason Under the total, while San Jose is 6-3 Under the total in their last 9 postseason contests.
Low we go in Game Four.
2* PITTSBURGH-SAN JOSE UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is with the Philadelphia Phillies plus the large money, against the Chicago Cubs. And in this game, I want you listing the scheduled starters: Jon Lester and Adam Morgan.
These two pitchers just met not too long ago, and in Chicago it was the Cubs with Lester topping the Phillies and Morgan.
Tonight it's the revenge theory.
Morgan looked fantastic through five versus the Nationals the last time out, but then got rocked for four runs on two homers in the sixth. His failure to record a quality start for the fifth time in seven starts will have him fired up for this start tonight.
Morgan is sure to be tested against the long ball versus the Cubs, but I like my chances with the southpaw.
I know Lester is 5-0 with a 1.71 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies, including a win his win over Morgan and the Phils on May 27, but tonight will be a different story.
5* PHILLIES
Scott Delaney
The Atlanta Braves were just beat up all weekend in Los Angeles, by the Dodgers, who outscored their guests 20-8 in three games. Riding a four-game slide, the Braves now head to San Diego for a series the Padres will take full advantage of.
This is also the Braves' 14th game in as many days, as they played 10 in a row at home, then three in Los Angeles and now open this series in San Diego. Trust me, the Braves want nothing more than to go home.
Since losing four straight and eight of nine, the Padres have won three of five and are in the right spot to reel off three straight wins.
Lay the cheap price tonight.
1* PADRES