Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 65-56 run with free picks: Colorado at LOS ANGELES (-130)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Los Angeles Dodgers (31-27) have a chance to win five in a row for the first time this season, as they open their series with the Colorado Rockies (25-31), who are up from San Diego and mired in a 5-13 slide. The Rockies will also be playing their 21st game in a row without a day off. That's a stretch that has gone through St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Boston, Denver for two series against the Giants and Reds, and then in San Diego.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key is going to be Corey Seager, who just finished with six hits during a weekend sweep of visiting Atlanta, and five of those went yard. He stroked three home runs in the series opener before adding a pair in yesterday's 12-6 victory. Seager is now hitting .375 with 10 homers over his last 14 at Dodger Stadium. I suspect he is going to have a field day tonight.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Rockies snapped a four-game skid with Sunday's 10-3 win over San Diego, and given the nature of that win, I wonder if they've shot their load and will come out flat tonight. I'm confident in laying a rather cheap -130 with the Dodgers.
1* DODGERS
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Under in the Angels-Yankees meeting.
After a two game flash-in-the-pan in which the Yankees actually showed some offense, New York reverted back to form yesterday, plating just one run in their 3-1 loss at Baltimore.
That makes it 5-2-1 Under the total for New York, and since Angels starter Matt Shoemaker has found his form, I don't see the Yanks mustering too many runs tonight.
Shoemaker sports a 1.59 ERA for his last 3 starts, and 2 of the 3 have held Under the total.
New York counters with Masahiro Tanaka who sports a 0.90 ERA for his last 3 starts, and just a 2.78 ERA for the year. 8 of Tanaka's 11 starts this year have landed Under the total.
Series numbers between the teams show 4 straight Unders and Unders in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Monday night in the Bronx, go Low!
4* L.A. ANGELS-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Harry Bondi
DETROIT -125 over Toronto
We've made our share of money backing young and talented starters making their first rotation around the league and that's what we have with Detroit's Michael Fulmer. The right-hander has dazzling stuff and is making the most of his time facing teams that have yet to see him, not only posting a 5-1 record, but posting a 1.29 ERA at home and a 0.40 ERA in his last three starts. The Blue Jays are off a nice series win at AL East rival Boston over the weekend and we expect to see a letdown here against the crafty Fulmer.
Bob Balfe
Pirates +105
John Niese will look out of place tonight as he will be pitching against his old team. Both teams will be throwing left handers today and in my opinion this comes down to the Pirates hitting left handed pitching well and the Mets not being able to hit lefties. This should be a great pitchers duel, but I don’t see the Mets putting up many runs tonight.
Rob Veno
Cleveland at Seattle
Play: Seattle -120
MLB is the most difficult professional sport to project letdown situations since teams play nearly every day and are accustomed to carrying an even keel mentality. Tonight may present us with one of those letdown situations as the Cleveland Indians come off of a huge four-game sweep of AL Central Division rival Kansas City and now travel cross country to play a Seattle team which was just swept on the road by division rival Texas. Expect Seattle to be extremely motivated to get back on the winning track against Trevor Bauer who has pitched well this season but has had difficulties against some Mariners hitters. Bauer has thrown quality starts in four of his last five outings and he’s registered a respectable 1.28 WHIP this season but he’s gone 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA against Seattle. Seven of tonight’s Seattle starters have combined to go 19 of 49 against Bauer for a .388 BA, .490 OBP, .653 SLG%, and 1.143 OPS. Mariners starter James Paxton was horrendous in his return from the DL last Wednesday and attributed it to jitters, going too fast and not getting his feet set. His 98 MPH velocity indicates his arm is OK and figure him to show improvement tonight. Cleveland has had road woes offensively hitting just .230 with an OBP of .290 in 26 away games this season. There are no bullpen concerns for either side here since overall, the key arms were lightly worked the past couple days. Price on Paxton and the home team is fair enough to call for a combination letdown/bounce back play.
TONY FINN
Braves at Padres
Play: Under 7.5
The Atlanta Braves are in the middle of a six-game road trip beginning their final three-game set as a visitor in San Diego when they take on the Padres. Atlanta lost a 12-6 score-fest at Los Angeles on Sunday that resulted in Dodgers putting a three-game sweep on the Braves, their fourth straight road loss. Atlanta has lost their last four games at Petco Park and have lost 10 straight to the Padres.
Right-handed Williams Perez will take on a San Diego offensive lineup that has a 29th ranked OPS (.641) against right-handed pitching this season. Perez doesn't miss many bats nor is he a threat to overwhelm hitters with a 95 mph fastball, but he induces 60 percent ground balls with his sinker with the ability to pitch six-plus innings and keep his porous offense in games.
Padres
The value of a left-handed pitcher that can reach 93 mph or higher on the radar gun and do so with good movement and adequate secondary pitches still, and always will, have a role be it as a reliever or a starter in the bigs. Padres southpaw starter Christian Friedrich has earned a spot in the Padres rotation because of his ability to be that lefty. He was rarely worth backing or supporting when he pitched for the Rockies at Coors Field, unless of course he was facing a weak offensive order, as his tendency was to all far too many home runs per nine innings. The San Diego left-hander does have a first-round pedigree and put up excellent strikeout rates in the minors and has become relevant pitching in Petco.
Friedrich has won each of his last two starts and while he received plenty of offensive support from the Padres lineup he has also recorded a start last month that saw him throw seven scoreless innings of a 10-3 triumph at Arizona. He is coming off a win over the AL West contenders, Seattle Mariners, on Wednesday, allowing four runs — three earned — on nine hits and four walks over five innings of work.
BUSTER SPORTS
Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -122
The starting pitchers for this game are for the Jays LH J.A. Happ (6-2, 3.06 ERA) and he goes up against the Tigers RH Michael Fulmer (5-1, 3.24) We are going with the Tigers here. Happ has been very good for the Blue Jays this year but we see that he is starting to show some slight regression from April to May. When Happ has started against Detroit he has a ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.298. We see the Tigers getting to Happ early tonight. As for Fulmer he is starting to pitch as the Tigers had hoped. He had a terrible start to his season, in his first 4 games he allowed 15 runs. In his last 3 starts he has allowed only 1 run. The rookie is definitely starting to figure this out. His only start at home this year was terrific, getting the win throwing 7 innings and having 11 strikeouts. We will go with the hot rookie pitcher here at home.