Free Picks for Monday, May 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
BREWERS AT METS
PLAY: METS -135
I’ve been waiting for a sell signal on Matt Garza, and it might have arrived in his last start. Garza had been quite surprising to start the season for Milwaukee, but he got lit up with long balls last time out and now seems like a good time to try and go against him.
Robert Gsellman is hardly money in the bank and that Mets bullpen is always a concern. But there’s a very nice angle in play here as the Mets will be in revenge mode after getting swept earlier at Miller Park.
The Brewers have a very good chance to be the most popular public dog on Monday’s schedule, and I don’t mind being anti-square as a rule. Fading Garza and the sweep revenge angle are the keys though, and I’m going ahead with a play on the Mets today.
Red Dog Sports
Carpi FC 1909 vs. Frosinone
Play: Frosinone -120
These two are playing a home and home. Game one ended 0-0 and now they play at Frosinone. The home team is #3 in the table at 21-10-11 (+15 goals) and 4-1-1 in their last 6 home matches. They beat Carpi 1-0 at home earlier. Carpi is #7 at 16-12-14 (+1). I have seen Frosinone -103 to -120 so look for the best line. I hope to see them win 1-0 on Monday.
Marc Lawrence
Braves vs. Angels
Play:Braves +125
Edges - Teheran: 0.71 ERA and 1.07 WHIP away as opposed to 8.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP at home this season… Angels: Nolasco 1-3 last four team starts versus the Braves… With Teheran 4-1 his last five away team starts during May, we recommend a 1* play on Atlanta.
Tony Karpinski
Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox +175
The WhiteSox have been good at home and I love them as a juicy dog on Memorial Day Monday. Quintana is another pitcher who is coming off of his worst outing of the year in his last start. Jose Quintana who retired the first 10 batters he faced vs Arizona last week, went just 4 1/3 innings, allowing eight runs and eight hits, both season highs.
Look for him and the White Sox to bounce back at home on Monday afternoon over the RedSox and David Price who is expected to be on a pitch count.
Larry Wallace
Tampa Bay at Texas
Play: Texas -115
I like the Rangers in this match-up against the Rays. Ramirez for the Rays is 0-1 with a 5.72 ERA against the Rangers. Perez started off rough in April, but he has turned it around in the month of May by going 1-1 with a 3.16 ERA. Texas is 9-2 in their last 11 games following a victory. The Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
Dustin Hawkins
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -106
Play against all underdogs with a moneyline of +100 or higher like the Yankees that are a good offensive team (>= 5.1 runs per game) against a very good starting pitcher.
TJ Pemberton
Predators vs. Penguins
Play: Penguins -165
Lay it and play it with the Penguins in game one of this series. Pittsburgh is familiar with being in this type of game and being at home gives them the edge. The Predators are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings while the Penguins are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Predators have a good shot of winning a few games this series but game one goes to the Pens.
Matt Fargo
Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox +166
Boston had its six-game winning streak snapped against Seattle on Sunday as it was shutout 5-0 and now heads out on a 10-game roadtrip starting Monday afternoon in Chicago. The Red Sox are 17-10 at home but just 10-12 on the road yet are heavy favorites today because of the starting pitching matchup. Chicago took three of four against the Tigers over the weekend to improve to 11-9 at home and those 20 home games are the fewest of any team in baseball so the White Sox have had a challenging schedule. David Price is set to make his season debut after going through elbow issues. He was roughed up by the Buffalo Bison in his first AAA start, allowing three runs off five hits over two innings of work. He was expected to throw between 85 and 90 pitches, but was pulled after just 65. His second start was not much better as he allowed six runs (three earned) on seven hits in 3.2 innings and while he was able to toss 89 pitches, clearly they were not quality ones. The question remains if he is ready or not and at this price, going against him is the prudent play. Chicago counters with David Holmberg who is making his first start of the season after a successful stint in the bullpen. He did struggle in his short time with Arizona and Cincinnati but that was a while back and he has a better feel now. Last year he made 32 starts between AA and AAA, going 10-9 with a 3.72 ERA.
Jim Feist
Braves at Angels
Pick: Over
Atlanta picks up the DH for this interleague series and it's a hitter's park. Starter Julio Teheran (4.88 ERA) won't find the going any easier, allowing 12 runs his last two starts (9 innings). Atlanta is on a 61-30-3 run over the total, 18-8 over against a right-handed starter. LA is happy to be home after a road trip and the Over is 21-7-2 in the Angels last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Starter Ricky Nolasco (4.37 ERA) has average stuff and the Over is 16-6-1 in Angels last 23 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Scott Rickenbach
A's vs. Indians
Play: A's +222
Taking a shot with a big dog here. Sometimes pitchers learn their lessons the hard way and that was the case with the A's Daniel Mengden. He went 10-2 with a 1.46 ERA in the minors last season but got roughed up bad at the MLB level. Now this season Mengden is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his 4 starts in the minors and has certainly earned this call-up. He's not going to let this 2nd opportunity in 2017 end up like 2016's rough season at the MLB level. The Indians are off of a big win yesterday but previously had lost 4 of their last 5 and averaged just 2.5 runs per game in those 4 games. Though Carlos Carrasco has great overall numbers for the Tribe, he has been roughed up in last two starts. The Cleveland right-hander has given up 9 earned runs in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts and walks have been an issue too. The A's are off of back to back losses but previously had won 6 of their last 9 and Oakland averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 6 wins. This would be a big upset but I can absolutely see it happening given the above reasoning about these pitchers and the fact that the Indians have really been no hotter than the A's of late. By the way, the Tribe are an insane 0-5 (-$10,200) as a home fave of -175 to -250 this season! Upset time!
Mike Lundin
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Play: Over 9
The over is 5-0-1 in the Pittsburgh Pirates' last six overall, and I think we'll see plenty of runs when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the opener of a three-game set Monday afternoon.
Trevor Williams (2-3, 5.93 ERA) takes the ball for the Pirates. He's set to make his fifth consecutive start after opening the season as a reliever. He's yet to go more than five innings and the Pirates' relievers must be exhausted after having combined for 13 2/3 innings in the last three games.
The D'Backs hand the ball to Randall Delgado (1-0, 3.82 ERA) who made his first start of the season when he held the White Sox to two runs on three hits with a homer through four innings on Wednesday. Over is 9-1 in Delgado's last 10 starts overall and Arizona is pretty much in the same spot as Pittsburgh with a taxed pen and a starter unlikely to go deep into the game.
Over is 8-2-2 in the Pirates' last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 6-2 in the last eight meetings with Arizona.
Brandon Lee
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -106
Baltimore is 15-7 at home this season and should be a bigger favorite than this with the edge they have on the mound here with Dylan Bundy facing off against Jordan Montgomery. Bundy has a sensational 2.92 ERA in 10 starts and is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 5 home starts. He's started once at home against NY and allowed 2 hits over 5 2/3 shutout innings of work. Montgomery has some decent stuff, but just hasn't put it all together and comes in with a 4.30 ERA in 8 starts overall and a 4.58 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in 3 road starts. Baltimore has lost 7 straight, which is creating the value with this line. I fully expect them to deliver and bring home the victory.
Ray Monohan
Houston vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +110
The Minnesota Twins and the Houston Astros start their series on Monday afternoon and with the match up on the mound I really like the home team. On the mound for the Twins is Ervin Santana who looks like he is going to be contending for the Cy Young all season long. He comes into this game with a record of 7-2 and an ERA of 1.80. In his last start against the Orioles he went nine innings only giving up two runs and zero runs.
The Astros are a good team but Ervin has had no problems with good offensive teams this year and I don't see that changing in this one. Some trends to note. Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. Astros are 2-5 in Peacocks last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. I expect the Twins will be able to get enough runs off Brad Peacock to win this game.
John Ryan
Reds vs. Blue Jays
Play: Reds +183
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Cincinnati is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.
So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following system has produced a 46-39 record hitting 54% winners and has made 42 units/unit wagered since 1997. The system has also averaged an impressive 176 Dog.Play on NL road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season and is a good base running team averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game on the season.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Toronto starter Stroman is just 9-15 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Reds.