Jimmy Boyd
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Play: Dodgers -105
Hard to pass up on this value with the red-hot Dodgers in Monday's series opener against the Cardinals. Los Angeles just finished off a 3-game sweep of the Cubs over the weekend an I look for them to carry over that momentum with Rich Hill on the mound. When healthy, Hill has been one of baseball's best starters the last couple of years. The problem is he hasn't been, as he's made only 4 starts so far in 2017. He did have a bad outing last time out at home against these same Cardinals, but I'm confident in his ability to bounce back. Control was the primary problem in that outing, as he walked 7 and only allowed 4 hits. The other big key here is that the Cardinals aren't the same offensive team against left-handed starters. In fact, they are only scoring 3.7 runs/game and hitting a mere .214 as a team against left-handed starters this season.
Chase Diamond
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -105
This game features the 31-21 Arizona Diamondbacks at the 23-28 Pirates. Pirates took a tough loss last night and face a Arizona team that has lost 2 straight and is sending a spot starter to the mound in Randall Delgado. Trevor Willams pitched well last time out and needs a good start. Just 24% of the bets have come in on the home Pirates I love those odds for us as we will back the sharps and take the Pirates.
Neil The Greek
Braves / Angels Under 8
It's funny what one guy to do to a lineup. Without Mike Trout, the Angels look more like the Angels in the outfield from the movie, then they do, major leaguers. I don't think he will be in the lineup for the Angels Monday night. So that means they will have to rely on Nolasco. Teheran is not having a good season, but mostly because of his pitching at home. He has been a stud on the road.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -½ +106 over Nashville
Regulation only. There are many ways to bet this series and we’re going to try and capitalize on a series we trust will not be close, which is not an opinion based on several things. First, if so inclined, one could bet the team and the exact number of games that they’ll win the series in. The sharpest sportsbook on the planet, Pinnacle, has Pittsburgh in five games as the shortest price of every possible outcome. That’s the first sign that this series will not be close and it’s really the only sign needed.
Next, we have Nashville’s layoff. You might remember that during the regular season, each team was given a bye week and upon returning, 95% of them played like trash. Nashville hasn’t played a game in seven days while Pittsburgh has had the perfect layoff time, having defeated Ottawa on Thursday, thus giving them the weekend off or three full days to recover. That’s plenty. Furthermore, the Penguins have been absolutely dominating since Matt Murray took over from Marc Andre Fleury. They also dominated last year when Murray took over full time. In last year’s Cup finals, Pittsburgh steamrolled over a highly experienced and motivated Sharks’ squad and this year’s edition of the Pens might even be better. While we take nothing away from Nashville, we trust that they’re simply ill-prepped to take this next step, which is covered in detail in our Future Wager bet found here. If you like, you could also play Pittsburgh -1½ games +137, which essentially means that if they win in six games or less, you’ll cash your ticket.
The Penguins have been written off many times this year and we’re guilty of writing them off too against both Washington and Ottawa but adversity reveals character and now the Penguins are healthier than they’ve been all season long. They are also wickedly determined and talented. The opposition not only has to deal with all that firepower and talent but they also have to deal with all that experience, great coaching and great goaltending.
As for the Preds, well, do you like stories about barbecues and country music? You better, because you’re going to get a heaping plate of both once this series gets taken over by Pittsburgh, which is likely going to happen right away. Heavy lean to the Penguins in this series and we’ll try to capitalize throughout.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +161 over Boston
You are going to pay through the roof today to back Boston’s David Price and if he and the Red Sox win, a distinct possibility indeed, good for them. Frankly, the line here is preposterous and therefore the South Side must be played.
Price obviously is scheduled to be activated from the disabled list for this matinee start and it’ll be his first start of the year after rehabbing his pitching elbow. If you recall, Price had a rocky start in his Boston debut last year (6.75/5.52 ERA/xERA split in first seven games) and part of it was due to a nasty hit%/strand% and hr/f. Aside from that, his recent, rising xERA trend keeps him from being the cream of any crop anymore. Massive innings pitch history may also catch up. Price could very well get it all together and get back to being the reliable and consistently strong starter that he’s always been but it’s not going to happen overnight. Price’s two rehab starts were very similar in that they each featured four strikeouts, one walk and three earned runs but the first start only lasted two innings while the second went 3.2 innings. He also gave up 12 hits in those two starts, which further reveals the big risk in backing him. Price is not likely to go deep into this start so Boston’s pen will likely be in their by the third or fourth inning, if Price lasts that long.
Another reason Boston is heavily favored here is because the South Side is forced to lean on David Holmberg for a spot start or two after Dylan Covey landed on the DL. Holmberg has appeared in eight games this year, all in relief, covering 10 innings and comes in with a 0.87 ERA. However, in his previous 12 career MLB starts with Cincinnati and Arizona, his ERA/xERA split was 6.62/6.13. Holmberg is a career minor-leaguer with 1000 minor league innings under his belt since 2009 but he’s just 25-years-old. He’s mostly been in a starter in the minors with 168 of his 182 appearances being starts so this is a kid that has paid his dues.
Holmberg has a good sinking fastball that reaches the low 90s, along with an average slider and a low-80s changeup that is plus. The 6'3", 245-pounder can use his height to pound low in the zone and force ground balls, but when he loses command, he can be roughed up as he was the past two years in Cinci. There’s a good chance he’ll be roughed up again but perhaps he’s finally found his footing after being a second round pick way back in 2009. Holmberg comes at hitters with his three-pitch arsenal and perhaps his small sample success this year with provide him with the confidence to be aggressive. One or both of these starters could and likely will get torched today but David Price is a big favorite that is just as likely to get whacked as David Holmberg is. That’s value.
Arizona +100 over PITTSBURGH
For a small-market team like the Pirates, economics are always a concern. The team has sought to lock in promising young players to long-term contracts, delaying their eligibility for arbitration and free agency. But it’s only a delay. From reclamation projects like Ricky Martin to local heroes like Neil Walker, the day of reckoning eventually comes. So personnel turnover is going to be a constant feature of clubs like the Pirates. What makes this transition so jarring is that it comes after the 10th-most wins (280) over a three-year run in franchise history, following 20 years of wandering in the wilderness.
However, the tone for this Pirates’ team was set back in spring training when Andrew McCutchen, the team leader, starting whining. McCutchen is the Pirates’ best and most beloved player since the retirement of Willie Stargell but everyone in that Pirates locker room know he’s out the door after this season. His ambiguous comments about his move from centerfield to right suggested immediately that even if the economics of his next contract weren’t a concern, he would be inclined to move on anyway. McCutchen plays everyday but he may as well not be, as he’s there in body only and it’s rubbed off on everyone. The Pirates are perhaps the most beatable team in MLB and perhaps the least motivated too or at least they play like it. The fact that Pittsburgh is favored over the Diamondbacks here makes Arizona an instant play.
Trevor Williams (2-3, 5.93 ERA) replaced James Taillon in the Pirates rotation when the latter was placed on the disabled list and has gone 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA filing in. Those aren’t fantastic numbers and are worse than the figures Williams put up as a long reliever earlier in the season but they do compare favorable to some of the other Pirates’ starters. That’s how messed up this entire Pirates pitching staff is. Williams’ mound opponent will be in a similar situation. Randall Delgado was forced into a starting role when Taijuan Walker landed on the disabled list with a blister on his right index finger on May 21.
Delgado has made some spots starts over the years but hasn’t been a regular member of a rotation since 2013 when he went 5-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 19 starts. He will be making his 50th major league start and the way he handled his last one gave manager Torey Lovullo the confidence to give him the ball again. He’s been locked in and throwing the ball very well,” Lovullo said to Arizona Sports after making the decision on Friday. His last time out, Delgado pitched four innings and allowed two runs (one earned) against the White Sox on Wednesday. He set season highs in innings pitched and pitches thrown (61) after appearing in 15 relief appearances. Delgado can pile up tons of strikeouts. He has two of the most dominant pitches in the game (29% swing and miss rate on his changeup and a 25% swing and miss rate on his slider). We’re not just talking about this year either. Delgado has been throwing filthy stuff for quite some time and now he’s throwing for strikes. In 31 innings this season, Delgado has a BB/K split of 6/27. He is missing bats at an elite clip (13%) and attacking hitters early in counts (65% first-pitch strike rate) and we’re not about to miss this opportunity to fade the Pirates when we have the superior team and pitcher by a wide margin and the more motivated team too. Invest.
Seattle -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
10-13 + 14.78 units
Gabriel DuPont
It's time for some championship action, on ice and hardwood. And let's get the prediction out of the way: I think the Pittsburgh Penguins will become the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997-98 to win consecutive Stanley Cups.
I can appreciate the road traveled by the feisty Nashville Predators, with gritty series wins over the Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks. But the seasoned Penguins are a championship crew that know how to win games, led by Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Add in goaltender Pekka Rinne, and I think the Predators are going to have a tough time in this series on the whole.
Nashville, in its first Stanley Cup Final in the franchise's 18-year history, had the better record overall, but statistically was a bit average on defense. The Predators ranked 15th in goals against average, 16th in shots against average and 15th in penalty kill.
For me, it's going to take a damn-near flawless defensive effort to slow the experienced Penguins, who have won the Cup in 1991, 1992, 2009 and 2016. And it's generally because of the same type of offense that ranked No. 1 in goals per game and shots per game. The Pens also ranked 3rd in the league in power play percentage.
Sure, the Predators are an impressive 29-20 on the road this season, but dating back, Pittsburgh has won 63 of 84 at home. The teams split the regular season series, each winning at home, with Nashville skating to a 5-1 victory on Oct. 22 and Pittsburgh scoring a 4-2 win on Jan. 31. And if this one goes seven, the Pens have the home-ice edge.
What makes things harder for the Preds to overcome, is prior to this season the road team had won four straight meetings, and it was Pittsburgh winning three of those games. Pittsburgh has also won eight of the last 10 meetings overall - four of the last five in Steeltown.
Sorry Nashville fans, but I'm taking Pittsburgh to repeat this year, and advising you to lay the series price with the champs.
2* PENGUINS SERIES
Jeff Benton
Monday free play is the Predators and the Penguins to skate to an Over in Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals.
I know full well that both Pekka Rinne and Matt Murray are capable of walling up and stopping a ton of shots, but I also know that this is the first meeting between the teams since way back on January 31st, and the Over cashed in not once, but twice in as many meetings between the teams this season.
The Over has hit 3 straight when these teams have skated, and the last time the Predators skated in their Eastern Conference Final clincher over Anaheim, they lit the lamp 6 times and allowed 3 to score against them in an Over. Nashville enters at 2-2-2 Over the total their last 6 this postseason, while Pittsburgh is 2-1-2 Over in their last 5 this postseason.
I have a feeling that we are going to see some goals tonight before we settle into a series where goals will eventually be harder to come by.
Let's play it Over in Game One on Monday night.
1* NASHVILLE-PITTSBURGH OVER
Brad Wilton
Let's go with the Phillies and Marlins to score enough runs on Memorial Day Monday to land Over the total in their series opener in Miami.
Philly is coming off a Sunday Over in their series finale against the Reds, and they should enjoy hitting off the winless Edinson Volquez who is 0-7 now on the season with a 4.82 ERA. His ERA over his last 3 starts is a tad higher at 5.00.
Jeremy Hellickson is the Phils leader in wins at 5-2, but his ERA of 4.28 for the season could use a little improvement. Over his last 3 efforts, Hellickson has seen the ERA balloon to 6.19.
Philadelphia is 15-5-1 Over the total their last 21 on the road, while Miami just played 2 of 3 this past weekend at home against the Angels Over the total. That includes yesterday's 9-2 finale.
Plenty of crooked digits on the scoreboard in this one.
Phillies-Marlins Over on Monday.
3* PHILADELPHIA-MIAMI OVER
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Monday is on the Miami Marlins over the Philadelphia Phillies.
List Edinson Volquez over Jeremy Hellickson.
Guys, there won't be any analysis today for this freebie. It's a comp play, it's a Holiday, and I'm going to get my proteins ready for the grill.
Let's just enjoy the day, and remember those who sacrificed for our freedom.
Have a great day, and I'll write a little more about Tuesday's freebie, tomorrow.
3* MARLINS
Jack Brayman
My free winner is later tonight, as I like the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays, and I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers: Martin Perez over Erasmo Ramirez.
Perez is 1-0 with a 3.20 ERA over his last three starts, so even though he is 2-3 with a 3.47 ERA in six starts at home, I think he is in the right groove right now.
The left-hander will be motivated for this win, as he has a record of 0-2 with a 5.33 ERA in four career starts and one relief appearance against these Rays. Look for him to pitch with excellence, looking for his first win against Tampa Bay.
As for Ramirez, I'm skeptical after he was needed in a marathon on Sunday. The right-hander was forced into duty as a reliever in the 15th and final inning of the Rays' thrilling win over the Minnesota Twins yesterday. He got the green light to start the series lid-lifter against the Rangers, but for the team to take a toll in a long game yesterday, this is not going to be easy.
Take the Rangers.
5* RANGERS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Memorial Day is on a late game, as I'm playing the Over in the Braves-Angels contest in Anaheim.
I'll just be real quick with this, so you can get to your BBQ and Holiday, as there's not much to say. It's about the pitchers.
Teheran has shown control issues during the last month and has had a tough time keeping the ball inside the park. The right-hander has been poked for seven home runs in five May starts and arrives in Southern California with a 1-3 mark and a 6.58 ERA during that stretch.
Meanwhile, Nolasco is hoping to bounce back after losing his last 2 starts. The righty hasn’t pitched badly, turning in three quality starts before a rough showing at Tampa Bay, where he gave up 7 hits - including 3 home runs - over 6 innings of work.
Look for the long ball to be the story tonight, and this total to soar.
2* Braves/Angels Over
Will Rogers
Arizona vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Over 9
The set-up: The D'backs are a dominating 21-8 at home (tied with the Dodgers for MLB's best home record) but were cooled off in Milwaukee over the weekend. The Diamondbacks had won 10 of 11 (six wins were at home) before dropping games Saturday and Sunday to the Brewers, allowing 15 runs in the process. They are 2-2 on their 11-game road trip (their longest trek since 2010) and continue their road trip in Pittsburgh on Memorial Day in the first of a three-game series. The Pirates had won nine of 15 but suffered a 7-2 loss against the New York Mets on Sunday night, giving up 14 hits.
The pitching matchup: Randall Delgado (1-0 & 3.82 ERA) will take the mound for Arizona and Trevor Williams (2-3 & 5.93 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Delgado made his first start of the 2017 season Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox, allowing two runs (just one earned) on three hits over four innings of a no-decision. He had given up only one run in 14 1/3 innings of relief, prior to that start. Delgado 0-1 with a 4.95 ERA in 14 career appearances (one start / 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA!) against the Pirates. Williams has made four consecutive starts after opening the season as a reliever, and his best was a win at Arizona on May 13 in which he yielded one run and four hits over five innings (that's his lone start against the D'backs).
The pick: I don't have much (any?) faith in either of these two starters, so I'll play the over.
Mike Rose
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Play: New York Yankees +100
Bundy has gotten out to a fantastic start to his 2017 campaign. His five wins are the most on the staff, and his 2.92 ERA is one of the best marks in the American League. However, he’s taken advantage of a very favorable schedule. Especially of late with him throwing at the Twins, Royals, White Sox and Red Sox in four of his last five starts. The one team not included in that stretch was the Tigers who got to him for 2 HR and 6 ER through six innings. The Yankees boast a much more terrifying attack than Miggy and company, and Bundy owns a career .291 BAA against them. Montgomery has the advantage in this tilt in that Baltimore has never seen his stuff before. If he can limit the damage at least two times through the order, NY’s bullpen should be able to see it the rest of the way and add to the Orioles recent seven-game slide.
Tony Finn
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -145
Phils’ starter Hellickson had an unsustainable 1.80 ERA in April which morphed into a 7.30 ERA in May; Continued regression is in order.
Hellickson's velocity differential between his fastball and changeup is negligible this season, the right-hander has a ridiculously low 6% Swinging Strike percentage, a career high hard contact rat of 31% and fly ball heavier than at any point in his career.
Marlins starter Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA) earns his first win of the season and positive regression takes hold. Eddy V has a solid SIERA and has increased most of his mission critical underlying peripherals after a switch from the AL to the NL.
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +100
The Dodgers come off a three-game sweep of the Cubs, but now they go back on the road where they are 10-12 on the season and with Rich Hill on the mound. St. Louis took advantage of seven walks issued by Hill in its 6-1 win on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium. Hill gave up five runs in four innings and according to him it wasn't due to another blister. Mike Leake is 5-2 with a 1.91 ERA and was the winner in that game as he allowed just a run on four hits in eight innings. Leake has given up more than two runs just once this season in nine starts. Los Angeles hitters have a collective .235 batting average versus Leake, including Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Utley, who are a combined 7-for-47 against him. St. Louis has won 37 of the last 53 meetings at Busch Stadium and we'll back them here.