Free Picks for Saturday, April 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jim Feist
Rangers vs. Senators
Play: Under 5
A pair of outstanding goalies and defenses square off, off a 2-1 Game 1. Star defenseman Erik Karlsson's goal from a near-impossible angle was the difference in Ottawa's 2-1 victory in the series opener. New York veteran netminder Henrik Lundqvist has been terrific in the playoffs, on a 4-0-1 run under the total. The Under is 17-5-7 in the Rangers last 29 Conference Semifinals games. Ottawa is #10 in the NHL in goals allowed, but #22 in goals scored, #23 on the power play. Ottawa is on a 36-16-2 run under the total at home. And when these teams clash the Under is 33-10-9, including 17-6-7 under at Ottawa.
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Over 8½
Today's pitching matchup features Jimenez & Pineda. Ubaldo Jimenez has one decent start in four starts this season and when we take that lone start against the Reds out of the mix we see the RH has allowed 18 earned runs and 26 base runners in his other three, spanning just 12 innings of work. Jimenez has been little more than a glorified BP pitcher in his last eight starts against the Yankees. We also aren't buying a couple of decent Michael Pineda starts in 2017. The Over is 6-1 in Pineda's last seven starts at Yankee Stadium and these teams have played to four straight Overs in head-to-head action, including last night. More of the same.
Red Dog Sports
Wigan Athletic vs. Reading
Play: Reading -105
Wigan is #23 of the 24 teams in the England Championship. They are 10-23-11 with -16 goals difference. Reading is #3 at 24-13-7 but just +1 goal difference. They are off a 3-2 loss but are 7-0-2 (outscoring opponents 14-6) at home. I think we see Reading win 2-0 on Saturday.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -145
Edges - Diamondbacks: Greinke: 30 with 2.04 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home this season; and 20-7 last 27 team starts during April… Rockies: Anderson 71.0 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. With Greinke in great KW form with 21 K’s and 4 BB’s his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Dustin Hawkins
Mariners vs. Indians
Play: Indians -191
Seattle is 11-3 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher like Danny Salazar of the Indians with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 13-21 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher like the Mariners Yovani Gallardo whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 3 seasons.
Teddy Davis
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1½
With the Yankees winning last night in rare fashion in extra innings by a final score of 14-11, I see that serving as momentum here today.
They get Pineda on the mound who is 2-1 in four starts with a 3.86 ERA. In his two home starts he was extremely impressive winning both games and only having a 1.84 ERA. The Yankees have now won 3 straight and 4 of 5.
Jimenez is nothing special here coming into this game with a 5.95 ERA on the season. Sure, he has pitched better on the road, but is coming off an outing where he only made 3 and third. He has struggled against the Yankees in his career with a 6.35 ERA.
Rob Vinciletti
Mariners vs. Indians
Play: Indians -178
The Indians fit a powerful 81% system that pertains to teams off a -200 or higher home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs vs a team off a road dog win like Seattle. Cleveland is 7-2 vs A.L. West teams and has a solid 1.78 bullpen Era. They have Salazar going and he is 13-4 as a home favorite and was solid going 7 strong allowing 2 runs here last out vs Seattle. The Mariners counter with Gallardo who has a 4.76 Era this year and is 1-3 in April road starts. The Mariners are 2-8 on the road vs rightys and are 1-5 on Saturdays. They have allowed the 2nd most runs in the league thus far and have a road bullpen Era over 7. Look for Cleveland to win this one.
Big Al
Oakland vs. Houston
Pick: Houston -144
When RHP Joe Musgrove exited an impressive Spring Training a month back (3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in seven starts), it appeared that the second-year Houston starter was poised for a breakout regular season. But so far, the breakout has not happened as Musgrove is just 1-1 with an ugly 5.91 ERA over his first four starts. Perhaps a start against the A's will get the 24-year-old out of his funk. This is his first time facing Oakland this season, but in two starts against the A's in 2016, Musgrove was very impressive, allowing a combined one run on five hits in 10 2/3 innings with 11 strikeouts. The 'Stros won both of those games by a combined score of 8-1 and Musgrove looks to repeat that type of performance tonight in his third start at home. Musgrove did by far his best work of 2016 here at Minute Maid Park, as he went 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in six games here (five starts). This, compared to just 1-3 and a 7.27 ERA in five road starts last season. Andrew Triggs is somewhat the opposite of Musgrove this season, having gone 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts so far. But after throwing shutouts in his first three outings, Triggs blew up in his last, getting rocked for six runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Mariners. He faces an even better offense tonight.
Brad Wilton
After a dozen runs plated by the Bucs last night - note: only 2 for the Marlins! - look for things to settle down runs-wise tonight in Miami.
It will be a pitcher's delight tonight as Ivan Nova and Dan Straily continue their hot first months of the season with plenty of nothing on the scoreboard in this Pirates-Marlins meeting.
Nova is making his 5th start of the year, and thus far he has allowed 6 earned runs in his 27 innings pitched for an ERA of 2.00. Each of his last pair of starts have stayed Under the total.
The Pirates enter this game having played 8 of their 10 road games this season Under the total. That mark includes last night's series opener which was a rare Over for Pittsburgh.
Dan Straily is coming on after a rough first start of the year. Over his last 3 starts, Straily has allowed just 4 runs in his last 16-plus innings worked.
Even with last night's rare Over, these teams have now played 5 of their last 7 since last year Under the posted total.
Nothing changes here, as Nova and Straily stay in command.
Pirates-Marlins Under the total.
3* PITTSBURGH-MIAMI UNDER
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves.
Don't bother listing pitchers, as it's all about momentum and which is the better performing team right now. Not to mention the team in revenge. Atlanta scored a 10-8 win last night, and the Brewers will be out for revenge in this one.
The Brew Crew has won three of four, while Atlanta recently endured a six-game losing skid. I know the Braves have won three in a row now, but they still aren't proving to me they can contend and they're a threat.
Cheap price for a Saturday night home game with a winning team.
Lay it with the Brewers.
2* BREWERS
Chris Jordan
I'm going back to using the Philadelphia Phillies, who made me money all week. Tonight they're catching too much in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. I won't list the pitchers in this one - ridiculous to do so - as I like the team as a whole.
The Phillies were riding high when they left for this seven-game road trip, as the Dodgers rallied from a two-run deficit for a 5-3 victory last night, while ending the Phillies' six-game winning streak in the process.
Tonight the Phils will pull even with L.A. in the series, as they will have shaken off the road trip and playing at a late hour, eastern time.
Philadelphia is not in a position to start losing. After this three-game set, the Phillies travel to Chicago to face the World Series champion Cubs in a four-game set at Wrigley Field.
Look for Philly to roll to the win in Game 2.
4* PHILLIES
Andrew Gold
Oakland vs. Houston
Play: Oakland +142
The A's have been struggling no doubt about it, but that is creating very good value here with the better pitcher.
Triggs is really off to a great start with a 2.42 ERA and a 3-1 record. He was roughed up his last game, but I expect him to bounce back. In his only road sart he pitched 6 scoreless innings.
Astros counter with Musgrove who has a 5.91 ERA on the season and simply hasn't put together a solid performance. in his two home starts his ERA is 6.30.
Jimmy Boyd
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -120
The losing streak stops here for Kansas City. The Royals head into Saturday's game against the Twins having lost 8 straight, including a 4-6 defeat to these Twins in yesterday's series opener. The big thing to keep in mind with Kansas City's recent slump is that 7 of the 8 losses came on the road. They have a winning record at home on the season and I like the pitching matchup here.
Jason Hammel has been up and down to start, but did pitch extremely well in his last start at home, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits in 6 innings against the Giants. He's more than capable of shutting down this Minnesota offense. The Twins will counter with Phil Hughes, who despite a 3-1 record has a less than impressive 4.71 ERA and 1.333 WHIP. Hughes also owns a 4.97 ERA in 13 career starts against the Royals.
Twins are 5-15 in their last 20 road games against a right-handed starter, 7-19 in their last 26 following a win and 6-20 in their last 26 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game.
Power Sports
Colorado vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona -138
Last night's 3-1 victory aside, I'm still not buying that Colorado as a true contender National League West. Sure, they're in first place (15-9), but that's on the backbone of an extremely fortunate 7-0 record in one-run games. Last night's pitching performance was certainly a shocker given that they had just allowed 42 runs in the previous three games. While those three games took place at Coors Field, it's not as if Chase Field here in Arizona has been any kind of haven to pitchers. The D'backs are averaging 6.8 runs per game here, a major reason why their home record is still 11-4. Take them w/ Greinke on the bump tonight.
Greinke comes off B2B dominant efforts against San Diego. He allowed just one run (a solo HR) in 14 innings of work where he struck out 17 batters and walked just one. He's now allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts and has a 2.93 ERA/1.174 WHIP overall. At home, those numbers are 2.04/0.962. He has a 7-4 career record vs. Colorado in 19 starts. The team has won every home series so far this season.
The Rockies will go w/ Tyler Anderson in this spot. He has a 7.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, not good when coming into this environment. Arizona hitters are batting a collective .312 at home this year. Anderson has allowed at least four runs in every start this season, so it's surprising that his TSR is 2-3. In two starts LY vs. the D'backs, his ERA was 6.30.