Will Rogers
Oakland vs. Houston
Pick: Houston -152
The set-up: The Astros took last night's game 9-4 and sit at 15-8, tops in the AL West. The A's suffered a fifth straight loss last night and at 10-13, are tied with the Rangers for last place in the division. The Astros just split a six-game road trip through Tampa Bay and Cleveland, despite numerous minor injuries. Houston lost a pair of outfielders (George Springer and Jake Marisnick) plus All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve to injury, along the way. However, Altuve and Springer were in the lineup last night. The Athletics know something about injuries, as eight players on the DL. However, when Sonny Gray pitched exceptionally well in his second rehab start, throwing six shutout innings for Triple-A Nashville on Thursday night. Gray has yet to pitch for Oakland this season but could return to the rotation as early as Tuesday against the Minnesota Twins.
The pitching matchup: Andrew Triggs (3-1 & 2.42 ERA) will start for Oakland and Joe Musgrove (1-1 & 5.91 ERA) for Houston. Triggs will make his fifth start of the season and 11th of his career. He allowed just three runs in his first three outings (all unearned), over 17 2/3 innings. However, after opening 3-0, he lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his last start, allowing six runs on five hits and two walks in an 11-1 defeat. His only two career appearances against the Astros have both come in relief in 2016. Musgrove has not pitched well so far in 2017 (1.45 WHIP and .298 opponents' BA to go along with a near-6.00 ERA) but this marks his third career appearance against Oakland, against whom he is 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA with 11 strikeouts over 10 2/3 innings.
The pick: Triggs has not started against Houston but his ERA is 9.00 ERA in six innings of relief work against the Astros. Meanwhile, is his eight career appearances at Minute Maid Park, Musgrove is 3-2 with a 2.74 ERA. Oakland is 3-7 on the road, while the Astros are 8-4 here in Houston. Stick with the home team.
Eric Schroeder
While the Washington Nationals would love nothing more than to put some distance between themselves and New York, in the National League East, I think the Mets have other ideas.
My free winner is on the Mets tonight, after they snapped a six-game losing streak with a 7-5 victory over Washington on Friday.
I couldn't care less about the pitchers, and I'm not scared of Stephen Strasburg. He's not intimidating to me, and the Mets have the hitters who can challenge him.
There are hitters who have seen success against the flame thrower, and today they're going to attack him early.
Take the big underdog.
2* METS
RAY MONOHAN
Cubs vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10
The Cubs and Red Sox face off on Saturday afternoon in a game that should feature a lot of scoring. On the mound for the Cubs is John Lackey who hasn't had his best stuff this season. He comes into this game with a record of 1-3 and a 4.88 ERA.
On the mound for the Red Sox is Steven Wright who has given up four or more runs in three of his four starts. In two of the starts he has gone under four innings. Some trends to note. Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 overall. Over is 5-1-1 in Wrights last 7 home starts. Over is 8-1-1 in Lackeys last 10 starts overall
BRANDON LEE
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1.5
New York is worth a look on the run line Saturday. The Yankees rallied from a 9-1 deficit to stun the Orioles 14-11 with a walk off in the 10th inning. That's about as deflating of a loss as you will see and I look for Baltimore to have difficult time bouncing back with a strong showing today. On top of that, they face the red-hot Michael Pineda, who owns a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 1.84 ERA and 0.613 WHIP in his two home starts. The Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 5.95 ERA in 4 starts this season and a 6.35 ERA in 12 career starts against New York.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Mariners vs. Indians
Play: Indians -1½
After getting pounded 19-6 the Mariners have reeled off three straight wins and today will face Cleveland's strikeout artist Danny Salazar (1-2, 4.37 ERA) who has held Seattle to a .159 batting average in two career starts.
HANDICAPPERS HUB
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Minnesota +113
The Kansas City Royals cannot hit the baseball or win a game right now - losers of 8 in a row and averaging just 2.6 runs per game on the season! Tonight they are facing Phil Hughes who is 3-1 with a 4.71 ERA on the season against Jason Hammel who is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA on the season. I look for the bats of Minnesota to get a couple runs and then Hughes to shut down this dormant Royals offense for another road win for the Twin Cities.
Oskeim Sports
Atlanta at Milwaukee
Play: Atlanta +116
Milwaukee right-hander Jimmy Nelson toes the rubber in terrible form with a 5.61 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last three starts. The issue for Nelson has always been his lack of command as he posted a 4.32 BB/9 rate in 2016, including a 13% walk rate against left-handed batters (4th-worst in the league).
The 27-year-old also owned the 23rd-highest hard-hit rate last season due to the fact that batters chased pitches out of the zone at career-low rates against him.
Nelson enters Saturday's contest with a pedestrian 4.56 ERA, together with a 4.11 FIP, 4.37 xFIP and a 4.17 SIERA. Batters continue to square up on Nelson's pitches as evidenced by his 32.4% hard contact rate.
Let's also note that the Brewers are 7-18 in Nelson's last 25 starts, including 2-6 in Nelson's last eight home outings and 1-6 in his last seven starts versus teams with a losing record.
Milwaukee is just 4-10 in game 2 of a series, whereas the Braves are 9-3 in game 2 of a series and 9-4 in their last thirteen games versus .501 or greater opposition.
Atlanta southpaw Jaime Garcia is 11-7 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 22 career starts against the Brewers and takes the mound in decent form (3.64 ERA L/3 starts).
Harry Bondi
COLORADO +13O over Arizona
Chicago Cubs looked like an easy winner over the struggling Boston Red Sox last night and 90% of the action was on the Cubbies. But not America’s Greatest Baseball Handicapper Frank Drake who had all Steam Team members on Boston and the Sox held on for the win. Tonight in Arizona Greinke looks like a sue thing over the struggling Anderson and the Rockies but not so fast! It’s another Vegas trap and we will take the generous +130 with Colorado and be one of the few at the pay window!
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Washington
Pick: Over 5.5
A pair of speed-oriented offenses clash in Game 2. Pittsburgh is tops in the NHL in goals scored, third on the power play, and 33-16-2 OVER the total when playing on one day of rest. Sidney Crosby is riding a five-game point streak (four goals, five assists) and has collected 17 points (10 goals, seven assists) in 14 playoff contests against the Capitals. Pittsburgh is not a stellar defensive team at #17 in goals allowed, and #20 in penalty killing. Washington is just as explosive but with better balance at third in goals scored and on the power play, and tops in goals allowed.
JOHN MARTIN
Pirates vs. Marlins
Play: Pirates +116
The Pittsburgh Pirates have scored a combined 18 runs over their last two games. They hung a 12 spot on the Marlins yesterday. They won't need near that kind of run support for Ivan Nova today. He is proving to be one of the best offseason acquisitions in the league. Nova has delivered for the Pirates to the tune of a 2.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP through four starts this season. Pittsburgh is 37-20 in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the past three seasons.
DAVE PRICE
Padres vs. Giants
Play: Giants -123
Matt Cain is determined to turn it around this season for the Giants. So far so good as he has gone 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 4 starts, including 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in 2 home starts. Jhoulys Chacin has been lit up for the Padres, going 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA in 5 starts, and 0-3 with a 12.56 ERA in 3 road starts. Cain sports a 3.24 ERA in 36 lifetime starts vs. San Diego. San Diego is 4-23 in road games after 5 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. The Padres are 15-41 in their last 56 road games.
JACK JONES
Cubs vs. Red Sox
Play: Cubs -117
Off back-to-back losses, the Chicago Cubs will come back highly motivated for a victory here in Game 2 against the Boston Red Sox Saturday. And they should get back in the win column due to their huge edge on the mound in this one.
John Lackey will relish the opportunity to beat his former team here. Lackey went 13-10 with a 2.77 ERA in 2015 and 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 2016. That's why I'm not concerned about his slow start this season in which he has posted a 4.88 ERA through four starts.
The Cubs should unload on Steven Wright, who is 1-2 with an 8.66 ERA and 2.094 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.456 WHIP in two home starts. Wright has already allowed 7 homers, 17 runs and 33 hits in 17 2/3 innings this season.
Chicago is 25-10 in its last 35 road games as a favorite of -100 to -150. The Cubs are 53-24 in their last 78 games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 4-1 in Lackey's last five road starts. The Red Sox are 6-15 in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
BLACK WIDOW
Mariners vs. Indians
Play:Mariners +167
Bets on all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (Seattle) with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 over the last five games against an opponent with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less last game are 30-12 (71.4%, +29.9 units) over the last five seasons. Give me the Mariners at a great price.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA +109 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. 3:00 PM EST. We’re not going to go over this again. You can read our write-up in this series and out write-up in Game 1 of this series to read our take and it has not changed one bit. The Senators were the better team in Game 1, which comes as no surprise to us. Why this market keeps undervaluing the Senators is beyond us but we’re going to continue to try and take advantage. Win or lose here, that the Sens are a dog again is insane. Period.
Pittsburgh +129 over WASHINGTON
While we have the Caps to win the East, we’re not adverse to switching gears when we trust it’s warranted. Washington’s loss in Game 1 is a massively big deal as far as we’re concerned. Talent wise, Washington can match up with any team in the NHL and then some. Mentally speaking however, they had to win Game 1 but instead they showed that they’re still not ready to take that next step. They are a bunch of dandelion puffs once again.
Pittsburgh made quick work of Columbus in the first round so they were off for a few days while Washington was sharp off a solid series victory over the pesky, quick and talented Maple Leafs. Washington looked sharper than Pittsburgh for sure. They had the puck more and they created more chances but they still lost. We’re not going to promise a Penguins win but we will promise a better effort from the Pens here because you’re not going to see back-to-back games play out like that from the Pens. They’re gonna bring it here. Furthermore, Sidney Crosby played like a man on a mission. You could see it in his eyes after the 2nd goal, not just how badly he wants a 3rd cup, but how badly he wants to beat this Washington team. “Caps in 6, Caps in 5, Caps in 6” is all the Pens and Crosby heard for days leading up to the series. You don’t think that shit bothers him? He’s a weirdo. Hockey is all he cares about.
Additionally, we’re starting to think that the Penguins are in Braden Holtby’s head or that they have found a weakness in Holtby’s game. Holtby was yanked against Pittsburgh the last time they played prior to these playoffs and the goals he let in on Thursday were not beauties either. Aside from that, the entire Capitals team has mental hurdles to overcome that the Penguins do not. The Caps have to be thinking about the possibility of being down 0-2 going to Pittsburgh. They get ousted early every season and now instead of being up 1-0 and being relaxed, they’re down 1-0 and can’t be in the least bit relaxed. All the pressure is on the favorite here and then there’s Brooks Orpik too. Orpik plays for the Washington Capitals and even in the most dire of times, he will have to come onto the ice and when that happens, there’s a strong chance he’s going to screw something up. Give a massive psychological edge to Pittsburgh, as they’re playing to win here while the Capitals are in the “playing not to lose” mindset.
Lastly, the Penguins are likely going to get another healthy body back here, as Carl Hagelin was full-go in practice Friday playing with Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin. He’s an impact player that instantly makes the Penguins better. The Caps are a great hockey team but Game 1 revealed once again that they don’t have that mojo that the Penguins have. Now it’s the Pens that smell a wounded prey and when Crosby and company smell a wounded prey, get the f**k out of their way.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +109 over MIAMI
The Pirates have a worse record than the Marlins, which inflates the value here on the dog. In this week’s podcast, we talk extensively about the luck driven numbers in baseball and the unlucky numbers too. Baseball, by far, is the most stat driven sport because it’s all numbers, which provides us with opportunities daily. This is one of them because the Pirates have been unlucky and the proof is in the pudding. Pittsburgh has struck out fewer times than every team in baseball besides the Red Sox. What that means is they are putting the ball in play and thus, they should be scoring as many runs as the Red Sox (minus park factors). Last night, the Buccos put up 12 runs in Miami and figure to put up a bunch more here on Dan Straily (RHP).
Straily found surprising success in the second half of last year when he made strides with his control, but he got plenty of help from strand percentage and hit percentage (including 21% for year against lefties). His fly-ball tendencies led to an NL-high 31 HR allowed, but luckily, 24 were solo shots. Issues with the long ball aren't going away and he'll be hard-pressed to post another sub-4.00 ERA in 2017. He’ll have value as a pup but he has none here against the Pirates and Ivan Nova (RHP).
Nova is 2-2 with a 2.00 ERA after four starts. He was quietly was one of the game's most skilled starters in the second half of 2016. Those skills were driven by his ability to pound the strike zone at a high rate while inducing groundballs at a high clip. In fact, his 3.40 ERA in the second half was backed by a nearly identical 3.49 xERA. He’s doing the same thing this year with one walk in 27 frames and when a pitcher can locate like that while working with Ray Searage, sky is the limit. Nova has 93 MPH heat to go along with a 0.89 WHIP and offers up so much more value here as a dog than the Fish offer up as the chalk.
Colorado -1½ +200 over ARIZONA
Arizona is at home, where they sport an 11-4 record. Zack Greinke has popularity, pedigree and some of the best numbers over the years among starting pitchers that puts him in the same company as guys like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arietta and others. This season, Greinke has 31 K’s in 31 innings with a 2.93 ERA so it’s not like he’s off to a rough start. Why then is Zack Greinke and the D-Backs only -130 here? If Scherzer, Sale or Keuchel were at home and facing the Rockies, they would all be -170 or more. We’re not even going to attempt to break down the numbers here because it matters not. Being able to recognize something that looks off is part of our handicapping process and this one reeks of that.
What we know for sure is that Chase Field is a massive hitter’s park that ranks second to Coors Field in runs scored. Thus, instead of playing the Rockies at +120, we’re going for the kill here because the line says that the odds makers are pretty sure that Colorado is going to win. If they are that sure, it’s likely not going to be decided by one run, as this venue does not deliver its fair share of one-run games. This is strictly a case of playing the numbers and so we’re spotting 1½-runs with the Rocks on the Alternate Run Line.