Free Picks and Service Plays for Saturday, August 13th, 2016 . These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
SPORTS WAGERS
Stoke City +149 over MIDDLEBROUGH
Newly promoted Middlesbrough will open up its campaign hosting Stoke City and they will do so as a significant favorite. Middlesbrough sport an excellent defensive scheme, posting a league championship best 31 goals allowed in 46 contests last season. This includes a staggering eight goals conceded in the 23 home matches defending at Riverside. These numbers are amongst the very best in the second tier league's history and it has established a firm persona entering its first Premier League match since 2009. Coming down the stretch last season, Boro asserted itself into an automatic qualifying 2nd position, going unbeaten in their last 10 matches. However, only two of these final 10 matches took place against top five opponents, where they tied both Burnley and Brighton 1-1. This late surge from Middlesbrough was enough to avoid the promotional playoffs in which the teams finishing 3rd-6th take part in a mini-tournament to crown the third promoted side from the second tier Championship League. Boro just finished their preseason with a record of 3-0-1, outscoring the opposition 11-1. As a result, its stock is flying high before entertaining their first Premier League quality opponent since December 1st, 2015, where Everton came into Riverside and eliminated Boro from the Capital One Cup with a 2-0 triumph.
Stoke enters the 2016/17 season with quite the opposite reputation. Stoke were completed unraveled and exposed defending in the late stage of last season, routinely allowing four goals and not being able to break through themselves. Finishing the EPL season with a record of 1-4-2 in the last month and half was ugly. In fact, Stoke conceded 18 goals in the final seven games. Up until match week 32, Stoke was firmly amongst the contenders for a Europa league position, hovering around the 7th place mark, before the wheels flew off. The final slump sunk them into 9th place, a still very respectable position for the most competitive league in the world. So what happened to Stoke? Following a slew of injuries to key players including star Goal Keeper Jack Butland, top midfielder Marko Arnautovic, defensive midfielder Glenn Whelan and, defender Glen Johnson, Stoke tried to compensate by opening up. This was a critical mistake, as they attempted this vs. Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester City, all of which were playing at their highest levels in their own title/qualifying races. Injuries play a large roll in any team's success/failures throughout a season in every sport, and tactically, in top tier Soccer, they may have the biggest impact. While it appears Butland reinjured his ankle on Friday, and will miss the opener, the defense/midfield in front will be together in a competitive match for the first time since late March.
Stoke's preseason results were equally as unimpressive, as they failed to record a win over three European opponents. The two wins they were able to accumulate were on an exhibition tour in North America, taking on a couple of Orlando City squads in front of less than 5000 total fans in the two matches. Pre-season form means very little when analyzing the matches that count, but in this situation, it plays into the inflated nprice we’re taking back. Middlesbrough is being billed as the favorite here due to a string of preseason and tier two results, combined with the lack of results from preseason and an injury riddled back stretch from Stoke City. Thing is, Middlesbrough will be hosting a top 10 EPL squad, that could be on the verge of reaching much higher than its past three 9th place finishes. Stoke City is not a title contender, but there is little reason to believe that if they stayed healthy last season, 6th place was well within their expectations and they will be coming into this season with the same mindset. Being disrespected like this vs. a newly promoted team should provide enough motivation to put forth their best effort in week one. Stoke City outright is the call (a tie is a push).
Tottenham -½ +140 over EVERTON
The EPL has seen a ton of impact personnel moves in the off-season. Amongst the managers shifting clubs is Everton's new man in charge, Ronald Koeman. A shift in the leadership is usually looked at in a positive light when it occurs in the offseason. Quite often however, there is a period in which the new manager takes a few matches to get his system implemented, as he begins to learn and mold the team around his principals. While that may be true in many cases, Everton need to be concerned that a couple losses could avalanche and drive this squad toward the bottom of the standings, where they may very well find themselves in an unfamiliar position, battling for their Premier League life.
On August 9th, there were some major moves in personnel completed by Everton, as they sold their premier defender John Stones to Manchester City for 47 million pounds, the second highest amount seen spent on a defender. Later in the day, Everton used the money to purchase a couple of players from lowly ranked Crystal Palace and Swansea City, bringing in Central defender Ashley WIlliams, and midfielder Yannick Bolasie. Not only did Everton lose Stones, but they have been the center of rumors in which their star striker Romelu Lukaku has been hunted by many big clubs from around Europe. The new signings don't necessarily spell the end for Lukaku, but it certainly will bother the already disgruntled striker, seeing a fellow star player sold just days before the opener. No fan base enjoys seeing their two best players linked to transfers while watching one walk out the door. The pressure will be on Everton to perform in their opener at home against a much superior opponent.
Tottenham finished third in the EPL last season and stumbled in their final three matches by drawing one and losing to Southampton, before being blown out 5-1 by Newcastle on the last day of the season. The Premier League was clinched on May 2 last season with the aforementioned two losses by Tottenham occurring after they were officially eliminated, meaning their motivation level was minimal at best. Entering the offseason, many of Tottenham's stars would take to the international stage, with offensive tandem Harry Kane and Dele Alli highlighting England's front, and defensive tandem Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderwield showcased in the Belgian backline. Both of these two international clubs suffered catastrophic defeats in the elimination stages, where England was beaten by tournament darling Iceland, and Belgium were crushed and completely outclassed as a big favorite vs. Wales. All four of these Tottenham stars were miserable in their own individual performances, especially Toby Alderwield who was torched by the Welsh for three tallies in their quarter final matchup. Tottenham participated in a mini preseason tournament in Melbourne Australia the past month and failed to record a victory over Italian super power Juventus, and Champion's League runner up, Athletico Madrid.
That is a lot of negativity to have occur in the past four months, however, not much of that is relevant to this Tottenham squad who will play its first meaningful game since a great title race that ended in late April last season. At that time, Tottenham was an EPL juggernaut, being heavily favored over all mid-tier clubs and depending on venue, would be favorites over the likes of Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United. Tottenham is still an EPL powerhouse that will likely be competing for a top four position and a league title. While many other teams recreated their team image, Tottenham only made a couple of additions, surrounding their immense core talent with supporting pieces Vincent Janssen and 24 year old midfielder Victor Wanyama. Wanyama will now join Eric Dier, Dele Alli, Mousa Dembele, Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela in what has become the most talented midfield in England. With superstar Harry Kane up front, and a very capable back line, Tottenham has a talent advantage at every position on the field over Everton, and will be coming into the first week of the season looking to reestablish themselves amongst the league, as a title contender.
With the sale of Stones, the situation surrounding Lukaku, and many new pieces learning a new system, it can be expected to see some sloppy play from Everton in their first match and with a team as dangerous as Tottenham on the field, many of those mistakes will be turned into opportunities. Being at home may not be the best for Everton either, as a rabid fan base will be pressing for a positive result following the big sale. The general perception of disappointment surrounding Tottenham's most recent team results, and the efforts of their star's individually during the Euro offer us up a great buy early on in the season, as Tottenham should be favored more significantly. This line stayed steady following the move of John Stones, and it should have shifted as the strength of Tottenham up the middle has been gifted a huge advantage on here.
Strike Point Sports
Miami at Chicago
Play: Miami
Miami and Chicago seem to be headed in opposite directions as the Marlins are continuing to make their push for the playoffs, while the White Sox can't seem to get it together. Adam Conley will be pitching for the Marlins, and he has been solid at home going 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in five out of his last six starts in Miami, with the Marlins going 5-1 over those contests. He will be pitching opposite James Shields, who can't seem to get out of his own way for most of the season. Shields seemed to have righted the ship when he went 3-3 through a six-game stretch, not allowing more than two runs in any of those starts. However, he has been blasted in his past two starts, allowing 14 runs on 15 hits through just 6.1 innings, losing both efforts. He is 1-6 with a 6.39 ERA on the road this year and I don't think he will have much success against Miami who are getting nice contributions all up and down their line up. I like the Marlins to take this game at home and pick up the win.
DAVE COKIN
CINCINNATI VS. MILWAUKEE
PLAY: CINCINNATI 1ST HALF
Those who value metrics are likely going to cringe at this play. Since I adhere to focusing on those numbers myself, I can certainly understand any disdain for this selection. Based on the key analytics, Dan Straily has been getting blessed with some exceptionally good fortune of late. At some point that’s supposed to stop, and a regression is supposed to take place. Maybe that happens tonight at Milwaukee, but I’ll be making a bet that it won’t.
The fact is Straily is on a roll. Sure, some of the data says fluke, such as a ludicrously low BABIP in his last three starts. But the Reds keep winning when Straily takes the mound, with the current run at five straight winners. I’m not looking to get in the way of that nice run.
There’s no question that Brewers righty Zach Davies has superior metrics to Straily, and Davies is beginning to look like a guy Milwaukee can count on as a decent mid-rotation starting piece. I’m definitely not making this an anti-Davies play, as he’s been pretty solid for the Brewers.
I like the Cincinnati offense right now. They’re hitting, and even though this team was basically eliminated as a contender during spring training, the Reds haven’t been mailing it in. Neither have the Brewers, who were pretty much in the same boat. But the deadline deals did hurt this this roster, and I would submit that at this point, the Reds might actually be a stronger overall squad than the Brewers.
This is as F5 as it gets, as that Cincinnati bullpen remains a liability. It’s not as inept as it was earlier in the campaign, but the Reds relief corps is still very untrustworthy. So I’ll once again limit this to a first half only wager. Lucky or not, I’ll buy Straily to keep his roll going and the F5 bet is on the Reds.
Rob Vinciletti
Mariners vs. Athletics
Play: Mariners -126
Seattle has won 5 of the last 6 vs losing teams and 10 of 13 on the road off a road loss with 4 or less hits. Oakland has lost 7 of 8 here to the Mariners and are hitting just .191 the past week. Road favorites with a total of less than 10 that are off a road loss with 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a home favored win scoring 5+ runs on 10+ hits. These road favorites are 14-2 the last few years. Iwakuma has 14+ score less innings in his last two and has beat Oakland twice this season. Graveman for Oakland has allowed 6 runs in 10 innings vs Seattle this year. Look for Seattle to bounce back tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Orioles vs. Giants
Play: Giants -166
Edges - Giants: Madison Bumgarner 5-0 with 0.69 ERA last 5 home team starts during August; and 1.70 ERA with 0.83 WHIP home team starts this season; and 2.20 ERA with 0.96 ERA last 7 overall team starts. Orioles: Kevin Gausman 5-19 last 24 overall away team starts; and 0-5 with 5.35 ERA last 5 away team starts during August. With Gausman 3-9 with a 5.37 ERA in his away team starts this season, as opposed to 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA at home, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Sam Martin
Cowboys vs. Rams
Play: Under 35½
Professional football returns to Los Angeles on Saturday when the LA Rams host the Dallas Cowboys. We're going to pass on the ATS winner in this game and instead focus on the over/under. Neither side was impressive offensively last August, as both teams were held to 14 points or fewer a combined six times in eight chances. Dallas and St. Louis both mustered just 12.0 ppg, with neither coaching staff even trying to be concerned with preseason win/loss results. Both of these teams might be targeted as "play against" in the next few weeks, but for now we look for both anemic, vanilla offensive game plans to result in an easy Under on Saturday night. Dallas has gone under the total in five of their last six chances as underdogs, and we look for that streak to continue as 14 points might just be enough to win this game outright!
Teddy Covers
Cowboys vs. Rams
Play: Rams -5
Teddy is coming off a truly epic NFL campaign and he picked up right where he left off; now 1-0 in 2016 after cashing with the Patriots on Thursday. Teddy is VERY selective in August, betting only where he finds STRONG information - not silly opinions. Don’t miss a single winner all weekend long!
If you’ve watched preseason games at the Edward Jones Dome in St Louis in recent years, you’ve probably noticed the lethargic crowds in a half-filled stadium. That won’t be the case on Saturday Night in LA, where 90,000 fans are expected to watch their home debut; a rare preseason setting where the energy for the home team is likely to be palpable.
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher isn’t taking this preseason home opener lightly. After becoming the first NFL coach in 20 years to keep his job following four consecutive losing seasons, Fisher knows that there’s a ton of pressure to achieve in his first year in LA. His quote: “(We’re not going) 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7, OK? Or 10-6 for that matter. This team’s too talented. I am not going to settle for that, OK? I know what I am doing.”
Of course, coach-speak can be overrated in August, but there’s no question that LA has expectations this August. Dallas does not. The Cowboys lost their first two preseason games last year by a combined 40-13 margin. They lost all four preseason games in 2014 by five points or more, including an ugly 27-7 Week 1 blowout loss. In fact, their last Week 1 preseason win came back in 2012, with a 3-0 victory over Oakland. I’m confident that three points won’t be enough for Dallas to win or cover this one, and head coach Jason Garrett sure doesn’t seem as if he’s treating this year’s preseason opener any differently!
The Cowboys have a ‘top-heavy’ roster. They’ve paid their superstars well, but those stars have been injury prone, and the quality depth behind them has been extremely limited. That’s been most obvious at the quarterback position, where it’s going to be Dak Prescott and Jameil Showers for the full 60 minutes on Saturday Night in an effort to keep Tony Romo from taking hits, with backup Kellen Moore already hurt. Prescott will be facing NFL competition for the first time; Showers was in training camp last year but he’s notched just 125 total yards of preseason passing under his belt.
St Louis will be giving a rookie QB ample playing time as well, but that rookie QB was #1 overall draft pick Jared Goff, not a 4th rounder like Prescott. LA will also have Case Keenum starting and Sean Mannion coming off the bench; two veterans who are primed to move the offense. Even with the pointspread creeping higher as we approach kickoff, this is a classic preseason contest where one team gives a sh** and the other team just wants to get out of town healthy…
Bob Harvey
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½ +111
The Boston Red Sox look for a second straight victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks when the two teams meet in Beantown. FThe total is 10. Boston took Friday’s series opener 9-4 as Hanley Ramirez slugged a pair of three-run homers.
The Diamondbacks (48-68, 29-27 road) have been in wait ‘till next year mode for weeks now. Injuries to their high-price pitching staff have hurt but Paul Goldschmidt has put together another solid season. The All-Star is 7 for 15 with one homer and four RBIs in his last four games and is 5 for 16 with two blasts in four career contests versus the Red Sox. The Red Sox (61-52, 35-27 home) will be without Dustin Pedroia, who is battling flu like symptoms is 6 for 16 during his four-game hitting streak, is likely to sit this one out.
Archie Bradley (4-7, 4.80 ERA) who has posted a 3.38 ERA in his last eight road appearances, will be making his 25th career start and first versus Boston.
Clay Buchholz (4-9, 5.64) All-Star knuckleballer Steven Wright's shoulder injury has opened a door for Buchholz to make his first start since July 2. Buchholz, who will turn 32 on Sunday, owns a 6.31 ERA as starter this season and his 1-6 mark with a 5.80 ERA at Fenway Park hasn't been met by cheers in Boston. Buchholz yielded just one run in 8 1/3 innings in his last six relief appearances and pitched 5 2/3 frames to pick up the win in his lone career start versus Arizona on June 15, 2010.
Boston has won seven of the last eight series meetings while Arizona is 1-7 in its last eight meetings. The Red Sox are 12-5 in their past 17 games
Brad Diamond
White Sox vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins -173
Normally, would not test lefty Conley (8-6, 3.70) of Miami laying such a prohibitive number, but hurler Shields (3-7, 6.68) of Chicago has been a downer this season. In fact, he lasted just 1-1/3 innings last time out against Baltimore in Chicago giving 8 earned runs. Conley too, did not have a strong recent start out in Colorado. Still, we can find reasons to back the home standing Marlins, including a 5-0 record with Conley versus a losing squad. Normally, the Sox fair well against lefties, but in interleague games versus port siders, they show just 3-8. Behind Shields the Sox have lost 4 straight road games and 1-5 L6 overall with the hurler. Chicago has done well in this series, but can’t support a 12-27 road mark this time around considering all factors.
Mike Anthony
Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Seattle Seahawks +3..5
Seattle comes in wanting to show their new offense, and the new game plan, and the Chiefs will be the ones to take a gander at it. Pre season gets the vibe going, but in Arrowhead Stadium, the vibe is going to be a bit flat. It will be interesting to see if DT Jarran Reed, from Alabama, makes any impact for the Hawks. The post "Beast Mode" era starts on the road, heading off to play the Chiefs, where the Hawks have been dismal over the last 3 games playing them, scoring 24 ppg and giving up 34 ppg. There wont be a whole lot of big power running, or much of Russell Wilson, most likely, but there will be enough to make an impact. Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. Seattle wins taking the 3.5 points here on Saturday afternoon.
Brandon Shively
Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Over
The Minnesota Twins are the best ‘OVER’ team in the Majors vs right handed pitchers cashing it at a 65% clip. They also have the worst winning percentage in baseball against right handed pitchers which means their games go ‘Over’ because the other team puts up their fair share of runs. I like the Royals to do that here tonight. The Royals have won 6 of 7 this year against the Twins and have scored 4 or more runs in all 7 games. One of those games was a Dillon Gee and Tyler Duffey matchup where the final score was 7-5 (OVER). The score was 5-4 after the 4th inning. Current members of the Twins are hitting .385 (.450 wOBA) vs Gee. Current members of the Royals are hitting .364 (.415 wOBA) vs Duffey. Opposing batters are hitting over .320 at Minnesota vs Duffey. If that’s not bad, the Twins bullpen has used 7 pitchers and 283 pitches in the last 3 days and 9 pitchers with 370 pitches the last 5 days. The Royals lineup is starting to hit better, especially their #1 and #2 hitters. The Twins have given up at least 7 runs in their last 7 games. Dillon Gee for the Royals is nothing more than a fill in starter and I have to expect him to give up his fair share of runs. The Royals bullpen has been decent lately, but is still prone to blow a lead and the Twins bullpen has an ERA of 5.40/ 4.90 FIP the last 7 days.
Jim Feist
Arizona at Boston
Pick: Over
Fenway is a small place and this Arizona offense is 9th in baseball in slugging. Arizona is stuck with starter Archie Bradley (4.80 ERA, 4-7), who has walked 46 in 90 innings along with 90 hits allowed. The Over is 16-5-2 in Bradley's starts and the over is 21-7-1 in the Diamondbacks last 29 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. They face Boston, the top offense in baseball. The Red Sox are stuck with a weak starter of their own in Clay Buchholz (4-9, 5.64 ERA). With Steven Wright getting scratched from Thursday's start with a jammed shoulder, the rest of the rotation will move up and Buchholz will be called upon Saturday. He is 1-6 at Fenway with a 5.80 ERA. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Red Sox's last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Ben Burns
Reds at Brewers
Play: Under 8.5
Yesterday's game produced 11 runs. However, this one should be considerably lower-scoring. Davies and Straily opposed each other last month at Cincinnati and the result was a 1-0 final. Neither of them gave an inch. Davies threw seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits. He struck out five and didn't walk a batter. Not to be outdone, Straily also tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits.
Both starters remain in fine form. Off another quality start last time out, Straily is now 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and dominating 0.661 WHIP his last three starts. Davies allowed three runs through seven complete innings last time out. He's 2-0 with a solid 3.32 ERA and 1.211 WHIP his last three. Don't be surprised if this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Consider the Under.
Chase Diamond
Houston at Toronto
Play: Houston
This game features the 61-55 Astros and the 65-51 Blue Jays. Astros are starting to heat up again having won 4 straight games including last nights upset win over these Jays. Aaron Sanchez has been a CY Young caliber pitcher for the Jays this season but he's off a loss his last time out and questions swirling around his innings limit I don't see the Jays taxing his arm today and keeping him to the 5 innings area. Collin McHugh pitched well last time out but didn't get the run support. Houston is 2 games behing the Red Sox for the last wild card and I think this team will be super determined to win today. Only 24% of the public backing the road Astros yet this line has dropped 22 cents the wrong way.