Tony George
Reds at Brewers
Play: Under 8.5
Two very good pitchers in great form facing off tonight in Milwaukee. While these two teams hooked up for 11 runs last night I see a different outcome tonight on the score.
Both pitchers last 3 starts has been rock solid and both pitchers are under a 3.20 ERA in their last 3 starts. Milwaukee has went UNDER in 6 out of their last 8 home games, and while last night was a big night on offense, I expect a low scoring affair tonight. The Brewers are -130 home fav here and that is because of their bullpen which has pitched well in the last 5 games with an impressive ERA.
Matt Josephs
Baltimore at San Francisco
Play: Baltimore +145
Another opportunity for me to back Kevin Gausman comes Saturday when he takes on Madison Bumgarner. The lefty is 10-7 on the season, and has lost two of his last three starts despite pitching well. Baltimore is hitting .251 against left-handed starters and are averaging nearly six runs per game in interleague play. If there's an offense that could match up with Bum, i'll take the Orioles. Kevin Gausman is 3-9 with a 4.02 ERA in 20 starts. He is sporting 112 strikeouts to just 29 walks. The Giants offense is in a funk right now and should continue to struggle on Saturday. Baltimore's bullpen is one of the best in the league so if they can get seven out of the starter then a lead should be safe. There's a lot of value with the road team in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Angels +113
Los Angeles is showing great value here as a small road dog against the Indians. We are catching a great price here due to Cleveland coming off back-to-back blowout wins by 10 runs a piece. The key here comes down to the starting pitching matchup, which I believe heavily favors LA.
The Angels will send out Matt Shoemaker, who has really been throwing the ball well after a slow start to the season. In his last 15 starts, he's allowed more than 3 earned runs just 3 times. Shoemaker has also owned the Indians, posting a 0.82 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in 3 starts. That includes a dominant outing against Cleveland back in June, where he allowed just 3 hits with 11 strikeouts in 8 shutout innings.
The Indians will send out Mike Clevinger for another spot start. He's making just his 5th start at the big league level this season and in his first 4 he has a 7.72 ERA and 1.822 WHIP. He last took the mound on Aug. 4th and lasted just 4 1/3 innings after giving up 2 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks.
We also have a strong system backing the Angels. AL home teams with a starter who has an ERA of 6.70 or more against an opponent that has a starter who strikes out 5 or more batters/game are 38-12 (76%) against the money line in the last 5 seasons. T
Scott Spreitzer
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
Tyler Anderson has allowed more than three runs in just one of his 11 starts this season and Colorado has won five of his last six starts. The bullpen blew his last game on Monday when he gave up one run and two hits in seven innings. Anderson is 0-2 on the road, but his ERA is almost identical at home and away and in ONE appearance against Philadelphia this year, he gave up two runs in six innings. The Phillies have lost five of their last seven against left-handed starters and they're averaging 3.5 runs per game versus southpaws. Jerad Eickhoff has seen his team Phillies drop three of his last four starts, including a 6-5 loss at San Diego when Eickhoff gave up five runs (four earned) in six innings. The Rockies scored eight runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings against Eickhoff earlier this season.
Dwayne Bryant
Rockies at Phillies
Play: Under 7.5
The Phillies rank DEAD LAST in baseball with a 74 wRC+ against lefties this season, while Colorado ranks 21st with a subpar 92 wRC+ against righties. Colorado's Tyler Anderson has pitched very well, doesn't walk many, and induces a ton of groundballs. Philly's Jerad Eickhoff also does not walk many, and owns a strong 2.92 ERA & 1.10 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park this season. Home plate umpire Eric Cooper shows a strong Under bias.
Ben Burns
NY Mets -219
The Mets are (obviously) pretty steep favorites for this one. On a 4-game slide, some may find that hard to imagine. Not me. In my opinion, given the matchup, this line could be even higher.
DeGrom is having an excellent season and could easily have a better record than he does. In 20 starts, he's got a 2.35 ERA with a 1.076 WHIP. He's particularly dominant at home. In 11 starts here, he's 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.986 WHIP, striking out 78 in 69 innings. DeGrom is currently at the top of his game, too. Over his last three starts, he's got a 0.44 ERA, allowing a single earned run in 20 2/3 innings.
Cosart offers a stark contrast. Last time out, he gave up 10 hits and five runs, lasting only five innings. In six starts, he's got an ugly 5.79 ERA and 1.857 WHIP. In his two road starts, he's got a 9.00 ERA and a 2.333 WHIP, walking nine batters while striking out only four.
While DeGrom has 120 K's vs. 28 walks this season, Cosart has 22 walks vs. only 19 K's.
Still tempted to back the Padres? Consider that they're just 4-22 (-14.7) their last 26 as road underdogs in the +175 to +200 range. During that stretch, they're also a money-burning 23-55 (-27.6) in road games, when the O/U line was seven or less, 0-7 their last seven in that situation.
While they dropped below .500 yesterday, the Mets' bullpen was stellar and the offense showed signs of life, nearly overcoming a substantial deficit. Manager Terry Collins had "called out the team" after it got swept by the DBax. With a major edge on the mound, I fully expect Collins' crew to finally right the ship.
Joe Williams
Seattle at Oakland
Play: Seattle
The Mariners have done a number on the Athletics over the years, especially with Hisashi Iwakuma on the hill.
Seattle is 6-1 in their past seven overall, and 4-1 in their past five road games against a right-handed starter. They have won seven of Iwakuma's past eight outings, and they're 14-6 in his past 20 road assignments.
While the A's have won four of the past five, including Friday's game against Seattle, they're still just 2-5 in the past seven meetings, and Friday's win was their first at home in eight tries against the M's. The Mariners are also 5-2 in Iwakuma's past seven against the A's, including 4-1 in his past five road outings against Oakland.
Bob Balfe
Bills -2.5
Andrew Luck has not played in almost a year and I am sure this club does not want to rush him back into game form this week without the entire offensive line intact. The Colts backups don’t have much experience on the offensive line so not even the best QB in the world is going to be able to operate under these conditions. On Defense the Colts are really thin on the defensive line so they will be into their depth chart quicker than the Bills were. Buffalo actually is as experienced as a team you will find with depth on all fronts. I think the backup defenders on Buffalo are leap years better than the backups for Indianapolis. Look for Buffalo to get the home win.
Reds +110
The Brewers are not very good against right handed pitching this season. Dan Straily has been pitching well the last few weeks and I give him the edge between the two starters this afternoon. Straily pitched very well a month ago against the Brewers giving up just 3 hits over 7 innings. Look for a repeat performance tonight.
Wunderdog
White Sox vs. Marlins
Pick: White Sox +155
The Miami Marlins are home, but is ice cold on offense, scoring four runs the last three contests. Miami is on a 3-7 run and is just 4-8 in interleague play, with its win total matching Cincinnati (4-11) for the fewest in the Majors. Up and down Adam Conley is on the mound, walking 10 batters his last two starts (nine innings), along with seven hits and eight runs allowed. Conley was shelled for six runs on seven hits and four walks across five innings Sunday versus the Rockies. Chicago is 4-4 the last eight games, winning three as underdogs, including yesterday, 4-2. White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu had a pair of singles to improve to 15-for-36 with a three homers and six RBIs during his last eight contests, while LF Melky Cabrera has three RBIs during his four-game hitting streak. Chicago starter James Shields has thrown quality starts in six of his last eight. He owns a 6-2 career mark against Miami with two complete games and one shutout. The White Sox are 7-3 against southpaw starters and have won four straight against Miami overall, so back the improving big dog.
Scott Rickenbach
Orioles at Giants
Pick: Under 7
The Giants Madison Bumgarner has a 1.70 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in his home starts this season. He has simply been dominant at home and the under is 8-4 in his home outings this year. He'll be opposed by the Orioles Kevin Gausman and the under is also 8-4 in his road starts this season. The under is currently on a 12-3 (80%) run in Gausman's last 15 starts. The Orioles right-hander has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his 5 starts since the All Star break. The under is 51-30 in Orioles night games this season and 75-42 the last three seasons in Baltimore's games against left-handed starters. 11 of the O's last 15 games against teams with a winning record have resulted in an under. 13 of the Giants last 15 contests against teams with a winning record have stayed under the total. Even though tonight's total may seem very low the fact is that it is absolutely justified and the under is actually 15-9 in San Fran home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. Look for Bumgarner and Gausman to get engaged in a duel here as both pitchers have been piling up the strikeouts of late.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Dallas Cowboys plus the points against the Los Angeles Rams.
Inflated line, pure and simple.
NFL back in the City of Angels for the first time in a long time, and the hype surrounding this game is the main reason the Rams are the biggest favorite of Week One of the preseason.
I know Dallas went just 1-3 both straight up and against the spread last preseason, but I cannot pass on the points here against a Los Angeles team that didn't win or cover a preseason game last year.
It's also a Rams team that is now 0-4 the past 4 seasons on Week One of the preseason slate.
I promise you Jeff Fisher is not thinking about making the LA fans happy on August the 13th in their first game back in LA-LA Land.
Go ahead and play the 'Pokes plus the points in this one.
3* DALLAS
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies, and I want you to be sure you're listing scheduled starters Jerad Eickhoff and Tyler Anderson. This is a pitching rematch, and Eickhoff is out for revenge.
Philly's right-hander has endured some of the worst run support in the bigs this season, but tonight he'll be looking to avenge his last outing against the Rockies.
In each of the starting pitcher's final start before the All-Star break, the Rockies touched Eickhoff for eight runs over 5 1/3 innings.
With Anderson, he's been stellar in 11 career big league starts. He's allowed two runs or less in eight of them, and in his last three starts against the Mets, Dodgers and Rangers, Anderson has thrown 20 innings and allowed only four runs, good for a 1.80 ERA.
Tonight the roles will be reversed, as Eickhoff will outduel Anderson.
3* PHILLIES
Scott Delaney
Now that the Alex Rodriguez saga is over, the New York Yankees can get on with their lives. They've won three in a row, and they will ride this wave of momentum into today's American League East matinee against the Tampa Bay Rays. I'm playing the Bronx Bombers on the run line, as I think they roll big.
The Yankees are in fourth place in the East, six games back of the Baltimore Orioles, and that's nothing with about six weeks left in the season. New York has a legit shot at making a run, and since it wins at home (33-24 this season) and has been winning of late, this could be a big weekend.
The Rays are in dead last, 18.5 games back of the Orioles. They've lost two straight, six of 10 and 19 of their last 26 on the road. Tampa Bay, which has also lost 36 of 51 overall, ranks second to last in the bigs with a .239 batting average.
Yankees roll here.
5* YANKEES -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 101-81 run with free picks: Detroit at TEXAS (-1', +105).
The STORYLINE in this game today - Let's head to Arlington, where the Texas Rangers continue their series with the Detroit Tigers. The Rangers finally had their bubble burst, after winning a pair of exciting ball games the previous two nights. The they opened this series with a solid win last night, and once again I absolutely love Texas to destroy the Tigers, all based on momentum tonight.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Momentum from both teams is the thing to look at here. The Rangers have won six of seven, and they're once again establishing their supremacy of the American League West. Now, along with their winning way, the Rangers' pitching staff is now 7-4 in the month of August. Offensively, the Rangers have been solid at home all season, ranking fourth in 2016 with a .284 clip.
BOTTOM LINE is - I think this is a bad spot for a struggling team like the Tigers, who have lost five in a row. Detroit arrives at a time when Texas is actually pretty damn focused and hitting the ball. Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team. Take Texas big tonight.
4* RANGERS -1.5
Brad Wilton
All about watching James Shields and Adam Conley serve 'em up on Saturday night, as the White Sox and the Marlins head Over the total.
Shields has hit the skids once again, as he has allowed 14 runs on 15 hits in just 5-plus innings of work his last pair of starts. The Over has come through in both of those starts by the way.
Since joining the Pale Hose, the Over has connected in 8 of Shields' 12 starts.
Adam Conley will counter for the Marlins, and he just allowed 6 runs in his last start at Colorado. The Over is 3-1-1 the last 5 times Conley has made the start for Miami.
Last night's game saw a rare Miami home Under, as the Marlins are still 6-3 Over their last 9 games played at home.
Not much to think about here with a pair of pitchers struggling along.
White Sox-Marlins Over the total the call for Saturday.
2* WHITE SOX-MIAMI OVER