RAY MONOHAN
Seattle at Oakland
Play: Seattle -132
The Mariners and Athletics continue their series on Saturday and with Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound, Seattle has value here.
Hisashi Iwakuma is 7-1 over his last 8 starts and pitching like his old self. He has struck out 15 over his last 2 starts and allowed 2 runs or less in his last 6 outings.
He's also had success against Oakland this season. Iwakuma is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA here in 2016 against the A's.
Some trends to note. Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games.
At this price, with Iwakuma and his solid pitching performances, the Mariners have value here and are worth a move.
BRANDON LEE
Pirates vs. Dodgers
Play: Pirates +117
Pittsburgh is worth a look here at this price with their ace Gerrit Cole on the mound. The Pirates have started to play better here of late, as they have won 5 of their last 7. Cole comes into this game with a .294 ERA in 17 starts and is in good form with a 2.75 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He faces a Dodgers lineup that has managed to score just 3 runs in their last 2 games. LA counters with Brandon McCarthy, who has an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.986 WHIP in his last 3 starts. McCarthy has really struggled to pitch deep into games, averaging just 4 1/3 innings/start this season. It's also worth noting that the Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 against the Dodgers when Cole starts.
JACK JONES
Mets -1.5 -104
The New York Mets are in desperate need of a win to get things turned around. They have lost four straight and six of seven to fall below .500 for the first time since April 17. They'll be highly motivated for a win today to end this skid and get back to .500.
The good news is that their best starter goes tonight in Jacob DeGrom, who is 7-5 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He is 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 11 home starts and 1-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in his last three outings. DeGrom is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego as well.
Jarred Cosart is no more than a fill-in starter in the big leagues. He has made six starts this season and still doesn't have a win, going 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.857 WHIP. Cosart is also 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in two road starts this year.
San Diego is 6-33 (-21.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last three seasons, losing by an average of 2.6 runs per game. DeGrom is 11-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. New York is winning by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.
DAVE PRICE
Reds/Brewers Under 8.5
The Key: The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will play part in a pitcher's duel tonight. Two of the most underrated starters in baseball square off in Dan Straily and Zach Davis. Straily has gone 7-6 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 21 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Davies has gone 9-4 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 20 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in his last 3 starts. Straily sports a 0.00 ERA in one lifetime start vs. Milwaukee, pitching 7 shutout innings in a 1-0 victory on July 17 of this season. Davies sports a 2.41 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs. Cincinnati. He also pitched 7 shutout innings opposite Straily in that July 17 showdown.
3G-SPORTS
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -174
Miami and Chicago seem to be headed in opposite directions as the Marlins are continuing to make their push for the playoffs, while the White Sox can't seem to get it together. Chicago is coming off a rare win last night and the big bats for the Marlins combined to go 0-11 last night. Adam Conley will be pitching for the Marlins, and he has been solid at home going 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in five out of his last six starts in Miami, with the Marlins going 5-1 over those contests. I like the Marlins to WIN at home here on Saturday night.
JESSE SCHULE
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +130
The Bucs have won three of their last four overall, and took Game 1 of this series in LA by a score of 5-1. I like Pittsburgh as the underdog here in Game 2. Gerrit Cole will toe the slab for the Pirates, and he's pitched far better than his 7-7 record would indicate. He's conceded one run or less in six of his last 10 appearances, and he's 3-0 in his last four starts versus the Dodgers. His road record of 5-3 with a 2.93 ERA is also quite encouraging. The Dodgers hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy, who has put up some impressive numbers since returning to the majors. He was very fortunate to have avoided a complete disaster in his last two starts. He pitched a total of just 6 2/3 innings, surrendering five runs on five hits. He used a ton of pitches, and couldn't find the strike zone, walking an unsightly 10 batters in those two outings. His 15 walks over his last 17 innings pitched are an awful sign of trouble moving forward. Add the fact that the Pirates have hit him hard in the past (.340 over 53 at bats), and this looks like a really tough spot for the Dodgers.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +179 over BOSTON
Archie Bradley has been ranked high on prospect lists for several years but the past couple of seasons have been filled with both injuries and poor performance. After posting a 1.99 ERA and 10.4 K’s/9 in seven Triple-A starts, Bradley earned a promotion to the majors, where he's flashed some intriguing skills ever since.
The surge in strikeouts is an encouraging sign. He recorded only 10 swinging strikes and six strikeouts total in his first two starts, but since then, Bradley has an 11.4% swing and miss rate and 9.2 K’s/9. He's shown some improvement in his first-pitch strike rate, which gives some hope for better control numbers in the future. He will need to lessen the walks before he can take a huge step forward. Bradley does a pretty nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (48%), but he's been hurt by a very high home run per fly ball rate so far, leading to a 1.5 hr/9. It's very unlikely that the long ball will be this much of an issue going forward. There have been lots of bumps in the road but Bradley’s strikeout potential already makes him relevant and his long-term potential is tantalizing. Bradley has also been much better on the road with a 3.38 ERA as opposed to his home ERA of 6.25. Lastly, he’s shown flashes of brilliance with gems thrown at Colorado, Philadelphia and at Wrigley against the Cubbies, where he went six full and allowed just four hits and one run. We’ll now take our chances with the better pitcher in this matchup, taking back a big tag.
The last time Clay Buchholz started a game was back on July 2 against the Angels, a contest the Red Sox would go on to lose, 21-2. Boston is 3-10 this season in the 13 games that Clay Buchholz has started. Buchholz has also appeared 13 times in relief since being demoted to the pen after that aforementioned 21-2 debacle. Most of his relief work has been of the mop-up variety. Over his last eight innings of relief, Buchholz has whiffed two batters with one of those being a National League pitcher for the Dodgers. The Red Sox have been pitching desperate all season long yet manager John Farrell has skipped over Buchholz in favor of guys like Sean O’Sullivan (4 starts), Roenis Elias (one start and done) and Henry Owens (3 starts – 13 BB in 12 IP). Buchholz has had nothing but misery as a starter in 2016 (17 HR allowed in 13 starts with an .867 oOPS), and with Joe Kelly currently on the minor league DL, there does not appear to be any immediate in-house help for the back of the Boston rotation. Buchholz starts today by process of elimination but he’s priced like he’s Aaron Sanchez. Big overlay.
L.A. Angels +104 over CLEVELAND
The Angels have been in Cleveland for two days but it must feel like two weeks for the Halos after back-to-back losses by scores of 14-4 on Thursday and 13-3 last night. The Indians also stole eight bases last night with the last stolen base coming in the sixth inning with the score 9-3. Cleveland was whooping it up in the dugout and having a grand ‘ol time at the Angels expense. Sometimes it’s just better to let a sleeping dog lie but the Indians chose to steal another base with a big lead and practically laugh in the Angels’ faces in the process. It may not mean anything but we can assure you that stuff like that does not sit well with professionals. The Indians will not run wild on Matt Shoemaker, who has allowed just 28 stolen bases in 410 career innings.
Matt Shoemaker owns a 4+ ERA after 22 starts but his skills so far in 2016 have been excellent with 9.3 K’s/9, 1.9 BB’s/9, 13.5% swing and miss rate, 69% first-pitch strike rate and just 34% ball %. An inflated 34% hit rate is the main reason his surface stats haven't caught up to his elite skills yet. Shoemaker has talent but this wager is still about fading Michael Clevinger.
The Angels are going bad but they are truly a dangerous underdog because of an offense that is always putting the ball in play. The Angels have struck out the fewest times in MLB and it’s not even close. They lead the league in that department with just 679 K’s. To give you an idea of how far ahead of the field the Angels are, the closest team to them has struck out 781 times. 11 of the 30 MLB teams have struck out more than 950 times or 300 times more than the Angels batters have. That’s bad news for Clevinger.
Clevinger has 17 K’s in 21 frames but he’s also walked 13 batters for a horrible ratio. Furthermore, his four starts were against the Twins, O’s, Reds and White Sox, four teams that are in the top half of clubs that strike out the most. Clevinger’s swing and miss rate is just 8% so he’s extremely unlikely to be mowing down Angels here. After four starts, Clevinger comes in with as 6.97/5.62 ERA/xERA split. In his last start, Clevinger’s WHIP was 2.54 so dude was pitching with the bases loaded almost every inning. He escaped that start by allowing just two runs but make no mistake, it was all luck driven, as he walked four and allowed seven hits in just four frames. Clevinger is a career minor-leaguer that has blown chances before. He’s pitching only because Danny Salazar is injured. He’s a fill in that is favored now, which instantly prompts us to step in.
SPORTS WAGERS
Hamilton +120 over B.C. LIONS
The Lions are riding high with a 4-2 record but it’s not as pretty as it seems. Three of the Lions four wins have come against Hamilton, Saskatchewan and Montreal. Combined, that trio has six wins in 19 games. The Lions are coming of a dominating performance over Montreal as a two-point road favorite. Despite the cover last week, the Lions have much more appeal as a pooch. In their only other game as the chalk this season, B.C. lost outright at home to Toronto, 25-14 in Week 3. Nobody expected the 4-2 start the Lions have had but there is now a premium to be paid when backing them, especially at home. B.C. is now catching Hamilton at the worst possible time too.
Hamilton’s stock is at a season low after failing to cover or even compete against the Bombers last week in a 37-11 loss. The Ti-Cats performance in Winnipeg was totally embarrassing and while head coach Kent Austin was seething on the sidelines at his teams’ poor play, we're going to let them off the hook in that one. You see, the game was delayed three hours while the home team spent that time in their very comfortable locker room eating, whooping it up and having a great time. Meanwhile, we doubt the Ti-Cats' locker room toilets flushed properly. Austin should be in a much better mood today, as quarterback Zach Collaros is ready to make his first start of the season. With Collaros behind center, the ‘Cats have a legit shot to be the best team in the CFL. Collaros is simply a HUGE upgrade over any other QB that the Ticats can throw out there. Additionally, Hamilton is loaded with playmakers on offense and those weapons will be glad to have someone back there that can get them the ball. Hamilton is just 6-11 without Collaros but they are an impressive 16-9 with him. Collaros doesn't have to win this one on his own either. All he has to do is take care of the rock and get his playmakers the ball. That's something he has done almost every time he has played. The Tabbies are now a team ready to go off. They’re rock solid on a defense and now that defense should get normal rest.
Hamilton is very good hands with Collaros and a lot of season left. If he stays healthy, the Tabbies are our pick to win the East and they are now in better shape coming into this matchup than a Lions squad that has beaten up on the weak. Hamilton is no longer weak and they figure to be extremely jacked up with their leader back. Ticats outright is the call.
Calgary -6 over SASKATCHEWAN
What a week it has been for superstar head coach and general manager of the Saskatchewan Roughriders, Chris Jones. This guy patrols the sidelines like he's Vince Lombardi with all of the bark and none of the bite. He's like a little chihuahua trying to hump your leg for attention. Jones is totally a guy arrogant enough to think the rules don't apply to him, which is perhaps why he's such a great fit in Regina. In case you missed it, the Riders were fined $60K by the league for circumventing the salary cap by having ineligible players, players on the 6-Game Injured List and having free agents practice with players under contract. Now rumors about the Riders having a few extra guys around town ready to play is nothing new and goes back to at least the 90’s. What makes this story so unique is that the man that ratted them out to the league is none other the Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell.
The Stamps kicked the crap out of the Riders last time they played and this one look like easy pickins too. Rider play-by-play man Rod Pedersen was on Calgary radio this week with a warning that Bo Levi doesn't know what 'he's in for' when he gets to Taylor Field. Truthfully, everything about the Riders is coming apart from the hiring of Jones to the product on the field. They are an undisciplined team with little talent and less focus. Their defense is a joke. If the Stamps come in here motivated and focused, it could get ugly but we’re still going to pass on this one because of our reluctance to spot significant road points. Hold a gun to our head, or even a pellet gun and we’re taking the Stamps. NO BETS.
Buster Sports
Royals at Twins
Play: Over 9.5
The Twins are on an amazing OVER run and we believe it continues tonight as both starting pitchers have had a rough 2016 season. The starters for tonight's game are for the Royals RH Dillon Gee (4-5, 4.54 ERA) and he goes up against the Twins RH Tyler Duffey (7-8, 5.93 ERA) Gee has had a rough go of it lately with a 6.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.647 in his last 3 starts. On the road for Gee it has been just as rough as he is sporting a 6.00 ERA with a WHIP of 1.60. As for Duffey he has really struggled as his 7.22 ERA with a WHIP of 1.586 in 10 home starts would suggest. He faced these Royals on May 25th and gave up 5 runs in 6 2/3 innings. Backing our selection is the fact that the OVER is 7-0 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central and the fact that the Twins have gone OVER the total in 13 of their last 14 games.
Carmine Bianco
New York City FC at COLUMBUS
Play: COLUMBUS -0.5 (-105)
A couple free plays for Saturday night in the MLS. The first selection is the Columbus Crew. New York City sit atop the eastern standings but form hasn't looked great the last few weeks and especially on the road. Columbus have been solid at home with an unbeaten run of 11 games but that should be tempered with the fact that 7 of those were draws. They currently sit 7 points back of New England with a couple games in hand so getting the full 3 here is the objective.
Montreal Impact at NEW YORK
Play: Over 2.8 (-102)
The second free play for Saturday night MLS is the Over 2.8 in the Montreal/NewYork match. The number is where it should be as the Red Bulls home games average 3 per game with the Impact average approximately 2.8 away from home. Those numbers are slightly higher when these two meet up in New York as they've met 7 times in the franchise history with 30 total goals being scored and 6 of 7 going over this posted total. I'll lean on that happening a 7th time here.
The Real Animal
Tennessee -2½
Phillip Rivers only took nine snaps in San Diego’s second preseason game last August. It will be a cameo appearance if anything for Rivers tonight. Melvin Gordon is iffy at best and Donald Brown is trying to rebound from a hip injury. Tennessee Coach Mike Mularkey is 7-5 ATS in exhibition play and the Titans should have a respectable trio of quarterbacks with Mariota, Cassel, and Alex Tanney. The Titans easily won and covered both home games last August against the Rams and Vikings scoring 20 or more points in their first three games. San Diego was a train wreck defensively last year finishing #20 overall in total D including #27 versus the run. Plus they couldn’t run the ball effectively finishing only ahead of Detroit in total rushing yards and averaging a league-low 3.5 yards per game. If you can’t run the ball and figure not to have Rivers airing it out your prospect of winning on the road at this price is slim at best.
David Banks
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +5
Two teams with a long history will meet on Saturday night in NFL preseason action. Dallas, which holds its training camp in Oxnard, Ca., will face the Rams, back in Los Angeles, at Los Angeles Coliseum. Because of the proximity of their training camps, the teams used to hold joint practices that is until the two teams became so competitive that every practice broke into fights.
It will be a fight on Saturday night. One of the fights will be at the quarterback position. The Rams drafted Cal quarterback Jared Goff with the first pick in this year’s draft. Los Angeles head coach Jeff Fisher has listed Goff at No. 2 behind veteran Case Keenum, who started five games for the Rams last season. Keenum will start Saturday night and Goff will get significant time to make his case.
Wide receivers Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin will be the Rams’ go-to guys and there is a battle for the other receiver spots. Nelson Spruce, an undrafted signee who is the Pac-12’s all-time receptions leader, is making some serious noise in camp. Spruce, Brian Quick, and Duke Williams are likely to be the Rams receivers to make the final 53-man roster.
The big news from Dallas is that their No. 1 draft pick, RB Ezekiel Elliott, will most likely miss Saturday’s game with the Rams. Elliott has missed several practices during camp with hamstring issues. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett doesn’t want to rush Elliott back too soon.
Cowboys starting quarterback Tony Romo is the starter, but an interesting story is the backup position. Veteran Kellen Moore, who would have been the likely backup, suffered a broken ankle in camp. Rookie Dak Prescott and second-year pro Jameill Showers will get significant playing time on Saturday. Their performance will likely determine whether or not the Cowboys seek to bring in another veteran to contend for the job.