Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Saturday, August 20th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
CAROLINA VS. TENNESSEE
PLAY: CAROLINA 1ST HALF
I’ll have to wait till the morning to play this selection, but with the full game at pick ’em between Carolina and Tennessee, I’m anticipating the Panthers being very small chalk for the opening half.
Coach quote tells me I should play Carolina early here. Ron Rivera had this to say about the approach for this game. “I want to see us put the ball in the end zone. We kicked four FG’s in the opener. When you get down to the red zone, you’ve got to score touchdowns if you want to win. I’d love to see three good drives (from the starters). I’d love to see consistency, see all three drives go seven, eight, nine plays.”
Based on those comments, two conclusions. One is that the first unit offense will be on the field for at least three series. That means into the second quarter. Whether they get to the end zone or not is something I can’t guarantee, but I like the idea that we will get Newton and company on the field for more than a cameo, and the coach definitely wants to see some production.
As for the Titans, their offense looked good against the Chargers. The first string defense was not good at all. The final score and stats were misleading as the Titans won the battle of the backups in a big way, but that wasn’t the case when Rivers and the SD first stringers were on the field.
I think the focus here needs to be on the first half. In fact, if it goes the way i think it might, I will possibly consider betting the Titans in the second half. But first things first, and the play here will be Panthers 1H.
Rob Vinciletti
49ers vs. Broncos
Play: 49ers +5½
This game fits a powerful system that plays against home favorites of 3 or more like Denver, that are off a win vs an opponent off a loss. We cashed out just the other day with Chicago in this system. Also of note is that Defending champs have failed to cover over 80% of the time as a favorite in game 2. In general it has been profitable long term to stay away from teams off a 21+ point win like the Broncos vs a team off a loss. Denver won by a 22-0 shutout score over Chicago while the Niners were upset at home on Sunday night by Houston. With the line moving upwards of 5 points we will go with San Francisco in this one.
Martin Griffiths
Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Play: Tottenham Hotspur -1½ +125
Tottenham are a very good side and when they get it right they can beat any team in the Premier League and beat them well, especially when they are playing at home.
Crystal Palace are a very average side, they may be slightly better than some of the teams expected to be fighting relegation this season, but it would be no surprise if they were actually one of the sides relegated.
There is a huge gulf in talent and class between these two sides and while shocks do happen, it is hard to see it happening today.
I am not saying that Spurs will thrash Palace, but I do expect them to win by at least two goals, they may be sluggish with so many players returning from a summer of competitions, but they came back well against Everton last week and were unlucky to come away from Goodison Park with just a draw.
Palace lost at home in their opening game and there was nothing to suggest that they will fare any better away from home against one of the best teams in England.
Tottenham really should win this game and win it comfortably, they may be without their keeper Lloris and there is of course no Dembele, but their replacements, Vorm and Wanayama are more than capable of filling the holes without any issues.
Palace have lost two of their best players in the summer transfer window and it showed last week and until replacements are brought in they will continue o expose their significant vulnerabilities.
All things considered I fully expect Tottenham to cover the spread and win by at least two goals.
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½
The books have set the bar too high for Saturday's showdown between the Blue Jays and Indians. Toronto will send out Aaron Sanchez, who is 12-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 23 starts. Sanchez has been absolutely light's out on the road, where he's 7-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 12 starts. Cleveland counters with Josh Tomlin, who bounced back from a couple of bad outings to hold a potent Red Sox offense to just 3 runs in 7 innings during his last start. Tomlin was dominant in his lone outing against the Blue Jays this season, limiting them to just 1 run in 6 innings at Toronto. UNDER is 13-2 in Sanchez's last 15 starts during night games and 21-9 in the Blue Jays last 30 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.
Marc Lawrence
Chiefs vs. Rams
Play: Rams Pk
Edges - Rams: 5-1 ATS in this preseason series; and 4-1 ATS as a host in this preseason series. Chiefs: 1-17-1 ATS last 19 Game Two preseason games; and 2-11 SUATS first away preseason game. With Chiefs head coach Andy Reid 1-6 ATS in Game Two of the preseason the last 7 years, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Rams.
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -115
The Tampa Bay Rays have won four of their last five games overall coming in. They lost yesterday, but I look for them to take Game 2 against the Texas Rangers today.
Jake Odorizzi is one of the most underrated starters in the game. He's 7-5 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 25 starts, including 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 13 home starts. Odorizzi has never lost to the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in three career starts against them.
The Rangers are 1-5 in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Rays are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rays are 7-2 in Odorizzi's last 9 starts with 5 days of rest.
Mike Lundin
Red Sox -128
The red hot Boston Red Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games following an 10-2 win against the Detroit Tigers on Friday. I like them to take a 2-1 lead in the series with another victory tonight with Drew Pomeranz on the mound.
Pomeranz (9-9, 2.99 ERA) picked up his first win in a Red Sox uniform his last time out when he held the Tribe to a pair of runs on three hits in 7 2/3 strong innings of a 3-2 victory. Detroit has struggled at the plate lately and I think Pomeranz will keep them in check.
The Tigers turn to Daniel Norris (1-1, 3.47). He was pounded for five runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings by the Red Sox in August last year, and we can note that the Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Keep an eye on David Ortiz who has hit safely in six straight games after last night's two-run homer, his 35th career blast against Detroit.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals -125
St Louis is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Phillies on Saturday. The Cardinals come in having won 4 straight and are riding a huge wave of momentum after last night's 4-3 win in extra innings. St Louis is also one of baseball's best road teams, as they are now 37-23 away from home on the season.
The Cardinals will send out youngster Luke Weaver for his second career big league start. Weaver debuted last week on the road against the Cubs. He got into some trouble early, but ended up allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits in 4 innings of work. He gets a much easier opponent this time around in the Phillies and I look for a strong outing here.
Philadelphia counters with Jeremy Hellickson, who has put up respectable numbers in his 24 starts. However, Hellickson was hit hard in his lone outing against the Cardinals this season, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 5 1/3 innings of an ugly 3-10 loss.
Bob Harvey
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½
The Toronto Blue Jays look to rebound from a tough loss to the Cleveland Indians when the two teams meet in the middle-game of their three game series.
The Blue Jays (69-53, 33-27 road) were heading toward its third straight win and fifth in six outings before Jose Ramirez and rookie Tyler Naquin belted back-to-back homers in the ninth inning of Cleveland's 3-2 victory on Friday.Instead Toronto’s lead over second-place Boston is just a half game. Meanwhile the Indians (70-50, 38-22 home)improved to 7-2 on its 11-game homestand and bolstered its lead in the Central to seven games over Detroit.
Aaron Sanchez (12-2, 2.84 ERA) has yielded two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 outings after a strong seven inning stint last Saturday in a win over the Houston Astros. While that performance came at Rogers Centre, he’s gotten the job done on the road as well going 7 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while limiting the opposition to a .225 batting average. Sanchez won his lone start versus Cleveland.
Josh Tomlin (11-6, 4.14) has lost each of his last three starts and five of seven since early July. He received a no-decision despite pitching well in Toronto on July 1, allowing one run and striking out a season high-tying eight in six innings.
The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Toronto is 9-2 to the low side in its past 11 road games and 13-5 to the UNDER in its last 18 overall.
Dave Price
New York Yankees +123
Getting the Yankees as underdog is a gift from oddsmakers tonight. The Los Angeles Angeles are 2-13 in their last 15 games overall. They have nothing to play for, while the Yankees still believe they have a shot to make the playoffs. The biggest factor here is that we're fading the Angels and starter Ricky Nolasco, who is 4-10 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 24 starts this season. Nolasco is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in three career starts against the Yankees as well. The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. New York is 13-3 in its last 16 vs. AL West opponents.
Kevin Thomas
Cubs vs. Rockies
Play: Under 12
The Cubs plan on starting Montgomery, get him 4 innings and then go to the bullpen early. Rockies start Hoffman who will be making his MLB debut. This total is set high for good reason, but these teams have plans to utilize their bullpens and not let this one get out of hand.
MMA OddsBreaker
Lobov vs. Avila
Pick: Lobov
If you've watched Artem Lobov fight in the UFC so far, you might think this bet is a joke, but it's not. Lobov holds a 12-12 record overall and hasn't looked good whatsoever inside the Octagon. That being said, he's facing a Team Diaz fighter in Chris Avila who's making his UFC debut and is simply not ready for this level of competition. Avila is inexperienced, wild and hasn't really learned to put all of his skills together yet seamlessly inside the cage. While Lobov isn't great, he's still durable, has improving ground defense and has some big time power on the feet if he can get inside. We expect Lobov to get inside against Avila and do some damage, eith
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The 73-50 Texas Rangers won 6-2 last night at Tampa and the three-game series continues with a 6:10 ET start on Saturday. The 56-70 Rays own the AL’s second-worst record (only the Twins are worse) plus rank dead last among all 30 teams in the moneyline standings (minus-$2625). Yes, Texas leads the AL West by seven games and is easily MLB’s best moneyline team (the Rangers’ $2745 mark is more than $1600 higher than the 2nd-place Tigers) but Saturday’s pitching matchup is the great equalizer in this contest.
A.J. Griffin (5-2, 4.68 ERA) of Texas squares off tonight against Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi (7-5, 3.72 ERA). When A.J. Griffin won his 2016 season debut 7-3 (back on April 8 ), it marked his first victory in more than two years, after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Griffin (formerly of Oakland) opened the season well but he was placed on the DL with right shoulder stiffness back on May 8 and didn’t get back on a big league mound until June 25. His ERA was 2.93 at the end of June but it sits at 4.68 now, after posting a 5.85 ERA in July and a 7.41 ERA in August. Meanwhile, Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi has been one of the best pitchers in the American League since the All-Star break. He’s 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA in six starts (Rays are 4-2), posting a 33-7 KW ratio.
No decisions have been a ‘cross to bear’ for Odorizzi in 2016, as he owns 13 of them in his 25 starts this season (Rays are 6-7 in his no decisions). That said, Odorizzi has pitched as well as anyone since the break, while Griffin ‘limps’ in off back-to-back ‘ugly’ efforts (allowed 11 ERs on 18 hits over just 11.1 innings for an 8.74 ERA), part of a seven-week slide. Let’s back Odorizi and the Rays in this one.
Jim Feist
Yankees at Angels
Pick: Over
Anaheim is a good offensive park and the Over is 11-4-1 when the Yankees have a righty starter on the road. NY starter Luis Cessa (5.33 ERA) comes off a 12-3 loss to Tampa Bay, allowing 5 runs in three innings. They face a struggling LA pitching staff with Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 5.13 ERA) going. Nolasco has been predictably mediocre since he was dealt to the Angels. Nolasco has now allowed a 5.19 EERA and 1.38 WHIP over 17.1 innings. The Over is 5-2 in the Angels last 7 home games and this shapes up as an offensive show.