Chase Diamond
Marlins at Pirates
Play: Marlins
Big time game in the National League playoff race as the 63-59 Marlins take on the 62-57 Pirates. David Phelps has been rock solid despite his 6-6 record he sports a 2.48 ERA. Chad Kuhl is 3-0 for the Pirates but has a 3.73 ERA the Pirates have been scoring runs for Chad when he's on the mound. David has looked very solid since coming off the DL. Marlins won 6-5 last night and I expect them to keep it going tonight. This line went from +125 Marlins to +109 with only 29% on them.
Carmine Bianco
Nigeria at Honduras
Play: Nigeria -123
Nigeria played well through the group stages and semi final versus Germany and have an edge in speed and talent over this Honduran squad who were embarrassed in their semi final against Brazil and looked like they completely tossed it in at halftime of that match.
Scott Spreitzer
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Play: Boston Red Sox -126
Detroit came within 2 1/2 games of first place but since has gone into another tailspin losing nine of its last 12 games, including a 10-2 blowout loss to Boston last night. The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight and Drew Pomeranz is coming off three decent starts in a row allowing five runs in 19 innings with the Sox winning two of the three. Pomeranz faced the Tigers on July 25 and gave up two runs and four hits in six innings. Daniel Norris lost his last start against Kansas City as he gave up two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings but he walked four batters. Norris has alternated between the minors and majors this season while also recovering from injuries. His longest stint was 5 1/3 innings against the Royals. Boston has won nine of its last 12 against southpaw starters and it leads the majors with a .283 batting average against lefties.
David Banks
SF 49ers @ Denver Broncos
Pick: SF 49ers +5.5
New San Francisco head coach Chip Kelly will finally get a look at quarterback Colin Kaepernick in the 49ers Week 2 preseason game with Denver on Saturday night. Kaepernick rested a sore shoulder in the Niners preseason opener against Houston. Blaine Gabbert, who started the final eight games of the 2015 season, was unimpressive early but did throw a 43-yard TD pass on his third series. Gabbert’s efforts were not enough to convince Kelly that he has a starter yet.
What Kelly’s offense did do was rush for 236 yards – and 6.9 yards per carry – against the Texans. The hyper-speed 49ers ran 50 plays in the first half alone. Unfortunately, none of the 49ers running backs could reach the end zone. Carlos Hyde, the predicted starter, lost a fumble that was returned by Houston for a touchdown. Kelly found out in Week 1 that he still has a lot of work to do.
The 49ers will go up against a Broncos team that is in a similar predicament. Head coach Gary Kubiak has yet to name a starting quarterback. The battle between veteran Mark Sanchez and second-year pro Trevor Siemian continues in Week 2. Sanchez started in a 22-0 win over Chicago last week, but Kubiak hasn’t said who will start on Saturday. Both will play and it appears as if Siemian will get his opportunity to start this week. Regardless, both Broncos quarterbacks will have another opportunity to separate from the other and earn the starting job.
Von Miller and Russell Okung are expected to play on Saturday, but defensive end DeMarcus Ware probably will not make his preseason debut until Week 3. Ware has been nursing a sore back and Kubiak wants to make sure the veteran is ready to go for the regular season.
Bob Balfe
Ravens +3
The Ravens held out a lot of players in last weeks game. The league itself is now holding back players in these preseason games. This is why I just don’t put much stock into them anymore. A few years ago we found great edges, but now the starters get a few plays and their is 55 mins left for guys who will be out of football all together messing it up for us. The Colts are going to be without key backups in all three levels of the defense today. The Colts are also slowly easing Andrew Luck back into the mix, but they would be crazy to play him long. Indy will be fine this year, but they are not very deep. I like the Baltimore second string players a lot better in this game.
Cardinals -130
The Phillies have been hitting the ball pretty well, but that can all come to a crashing halt at anytime as they just don’t have the talent like a St. Louis team. This still has been a great season for the Phillies that were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball.The Cardinals are a little bit better in the bullpen and should take this game with Wild Card hopes on the line.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arsenal -½ +145 over LEICESTER CITY
What an ugly start to the season for the Gunners. Arsenal would see themselves down 4-1 to Liverpool last Sunday, before putting together a comeback that fell short in a 4-3 loss to Liverpool. That loss was just the second time Liverpool has won at Arsenal in 21 matches and they did so in convincing fashion. Arsenal was very vulnerable in the middle due to their injuries, and the Liverpool attackers exposed them often late in the first half and early in the second. Leading into its opener last week, manager Arsene Wenger decided to give his Euro tournament participants extended rest, leading into a season that will see them be busy in the Champions League, and their domestic cup tournaments. Entering Saturday's primetime match vs. the defending champions, Wenger has made three of his superstars available, and they should all have a significant impact on the match. Laurent Koscielny will fill the massive void in the center of Arsenal's backline, and will be tasked with containing Jamie Vardy. Mesut Ozil, the premier playmaker in England, will facilitate the offense and control the offensive third, and Olivier Giroud will man the front line as a premier vertical threat. These three are superstars in each of their respective positions and will make Arsenal a much tougher task for any opponent. Aaron Ramsey injured himself in the match vs. Liverpool, but his absence will open the door for a more dangerous playmaker in Santi Carzola, and new midfielder Xhaka. While Arsenal will obviously be in a much different state, this wager has more to do with fading the Champs early this season while their stock is still high.
Leicester began their season in Hull City, and put forth the worst result of the weekend, as they were beaten by the preseason relegation favorites. They were not just beaten, but they were defeated handily. If it weren't for a fortunate penalty being award to the Foxes in the second half, this match would have been a blowout. Leicester committed 17 fouls, as they were chasing the ball all game. They lost a majority of 50/50 balls, and were beaten in possession and shots on target. This is the league champion playing against a newly promoted side that has no aspirations to stick around at the end of this season. Leicester became the first defending champion to lose their opener in Premier League history. While an overreaction is to be considered, the fact remains that the Foxes defied logic all season last year by becoming the first champion to win by counterattacking all season. With a total ball possession hovering around 40% all year, Leicester was continually projected to fade down the stretch but they never did. Entering their championship defense, they may have lost their most important piece to implementing this style. N'Golo Kante was the best defensive midfielder last year, and was responsible for continually turning opposition turnovers into transition attacks. He was also responsible for generating the pressure to create the turnovers initially. Without him, Leicester is highly unlikely to perform the same way as they did within this scheme. While regression is an obvious result, Leicester will have trouble finishing above mid table if they are unable to adapt to their new situation, which includes three new/young players in very key positions.
Last season was magical at King Power Stadium. Leicester City was able to get positive results in all but one of their home matches. That one match was a massacre by Arsene Wenger and the Gunners. Arsenal would win the match 5-2 which included a hat trick from Alexis Sanchez. Arsenal would also defeat Leicester City in their second meeting 2-1, indicating that Arsenal has the blueprint to defeat the champs. Due to the added exposure Arsenal had last week in their match of the week loss to Liverpool, their stock is low right now, but with many key players returning to form, this price is a generous one on the much superior team. Leicester City played in a low exposure match early on in Hull. This was one of the least viewed season openers in the Premier League in a decade, and those that watched, know that Leicester's performance raises many more red flags than not.
SPORTS WAGERS
Perry/Lim Under 1½ -117
Undefeated at 6-0, Mike Perry makes his UFC debut vs. “The Ace” Hyun Gyu Lim. Perry has won all six of his professional MMA fights by way of knockout. Whether it be one-punch walk off KO's or furious ground and pound, Perry has never had his opponent last past the 3:30 mark in the 2nd round. At just 24 years old, Perry will get his feet wet on short notice on the main card of UFC 202, and he will be put in front of a man with equally as devastating finishing abilities.
The Ace has been off since May 2015 following a KO loss to Neil Magny, and will make his return originally being matched up against Sultan Aliev, a Russian Knockout artist with one career UFC fight. That fight was a quick KO loss inside three minutes of round number one. The relevance here is that Lim was given a similar opponent as a replacement in what the UFC matchmakers are doing their very best to showcase the 31 year old South Korean. Both Aliev and Perry have similarities in their game where they will make themselves very hittable in order to open up their own one punch KO opportunity and they are also very inexperienced on this level compared to Lim. Lim's recent fights have also left a trail of destruction, seeing four of five fights finished before the end of the second round, with the outlier being a five-round decision loss to well-polished UFC veteran Tarec Saffedine. In Lim’s past 10 fights, only two of them lasted past the 2:30 mark of round two, however, those two occurred in the past three fights which play favorably into the odds for this one.
One question that needs to be answered is why would this fight be sitting comfortably on the main card of a major PPV? The answer is the marketability of 'The Ace', and the style of fights that he participates in. There will be fireworks early and often and neither fighter has a track record to indicate that this one will go into the 2nd round. Additionally, this fight has been sandwiched by two fights that are likely to go the distance, as indicated by the betting odds on Cerrone/Story, and Means/Homasi. The matchmakers aren't stupid, and they know that the ideal situation is to sprinkle in a KO between the three round fights to show the variety of fighting styles that the UFC showcases. Originally, Lim was matched up against Aliev, and when Aliev was replaced by a 6-0 UFC debutant with six KOs all under 1.5 rounds, it was very obvious to see what their intentions were originally, and what they doubled down on with their second hand picked opponent for Lim.
This line remains relatively motionless in either direction for both the winner of the fight and the total rounds. These guys are the most unknown commodities on the main card, and looking into the preliminaries, they’re probably top two or three in terms of name recognition. While the main event and the subsequent co main events are taking major money, this fight slides under the radar and the total rounds of 1½ should be taking a lot more action than it has been. Lim vs. Perry is much more likely to end in the first than reach the second, and getting an additional half round to get a finish at these valuable odds is the play.
Lorenz Larkin +120 over Neil Magny
Neil Magny has been an absolute force since the beginning of 2014. He has posted a record of 10-1 with the lone loss coming against title contender Damian Maia. In 2½ years, Magny has run into the ring time and time again and was spectacular on most occasions. Within the aforementioned record are wins over Tim 'Dirty Bird' Means, and KO wins over 'The Ace' Lim, and Hector Lombard. Magny sizes up very well over any opponent in this weight class, as his 6' 3" frame is accompanied by an uncontested 80" reach. This recent run has seen Magny fly up the rankings into the 7th position, as he prepares to go on a serious title contention in the upcoming years.
Lorenz Larkin enters Saturday night coming off of an impressive three-round decision win over Jorge Masvidal in May. In his first fight of the year, Larkin earned himself a very hard fought split decision loss to currently unranked Albert Tumenov. Previous to that, Larkin posted a couple KO wins over Santoago Ponzinibbio and John Howard, but a look deeper into the past shows a slate of losses for an overall record of 4-5 in his UFC career. Larkin is unranked, and from the casual observer, seems like just a veteran fighter that real contenders beat up in order to further their careers.
How is it that Neil Magny, who is surging up the rankings, is 10-1 in his last 11 and possesses a massive height and reach advantage, is so modestly favored here? Sitting at a tempting -130 to -140 depending on your book, Magny will take heavy action because of how impressive he has been of late. Magny is also coming off of one of the best fights of 2016, a third round TKO over Hector Lombard in which he landed 148 strikes and looked as if Lombard's long term health was in jeopardy for most of the third round. Many will look at this as a must buy, but we are firmly positioned on the other side for numerous key factors. First off, Magny has been extremely busy in the past 2½ years. As previously mentioned, Magny has fought 11 times in that time frame, roughly fighting once every three months during that span. He has also endured a few wars consecutively, as he has logged 13 competitive rounds in the past 54 weeks. In those rounds, Magny has been tagged over 150 times significantly, including three solid knockdowns. The last knockdown was one of the most impressive survival displays we have seen in the UFC in years, as Lombard had him KO'd but unfinished in the referee's eyes. Magny also has a five round split decision win over Kelvin Gastelum in this period, which many believe would be a fortunate result.
Lorenz Larkin has been following a more typical fight schedule, and has had a much comparatively smoother path in his past couple years. Larkin has fought on average, once every six months over his last four fights, whereas his previous stretch would see him fighting as much as Magny is currently before he made the change. Larkin made this change to fight less often at a cost to his take home pay but the results are beginning to bear fruit, as he has won three of his past four and has a great opportunity to assert himself into the top 15 with big win at UFC 202.
While Magny was able to survive Lomabrd's big knockdown, and subsequently take advantage of the aging Lombard's gas tank, a similar circumstance here will not be survivable. Larkin's stamina is elite so he will not tire. He is also extremely quick and will be able to work inside Magny's reach without risking too much damage. Utilizing a wide range of diverse striking, Larkin will have a great opportunity to win this fight and the odds are telling us to back Larkin instead of biting at the Magny bait.
G. Teixeira +178 over A. Johnson
Finally, the UFC has opted to utilize their ranking system properly instead of just billing 'money' fights to generate casual fan interest. There has been a lot of talk in the past month to get back to #1 contender fights and having the best fighter in the rankings fight for the title as they deserve it. Hopefully the Bisping/Henderson joke title fight will be the last of these gimmick events made to appease the inner WWE fans in many of us.
Back to business though, as we have #1 Light Heavyweight Anthony “Rumble” Johnson squaring off against #2 Glover Teixeira in the co-main event. The winner will be facing off against Daniel Cormier for the Lightweight title in the near future (barring injury or bizarre Jon Jones related drama). This fight could be a main event on this card if it were not for the publicity that has been created by Diaz and McGregor, but will instead insulate the PPV as the most meaningful match of the night. A match that will bill a top KO artist in Rumble Johnson vs. an extremely well rounded Jiu-Jitsu specialist in Glover Teixeira.
Johnson has been the division's hottest commodity not named Daniel Cormier in his past five fights, tearing off four KO victories in his past five, three of which happened in the first round. For his efforts, the UFC has handed Johnson four performance of the night bonuses for each of these victories. Johnson has extreme one punch knockout power, and is capable of launching punches in lethal combinations as well. Most of his opponents don't know what's coming before the fight ends in devastating fashion. With this firework worthy striking come a few weaknesses that have been well documented in the past. Fully capable of overwhelming any opponent with power striking, Johnson has a tendency to tire out if his opponent can survive the onslaught. He is also very vulnerable to submissions, as he has been submitted in each of his past three losses dating back to his pre UFC days. While there is plenty of evidence to suggest he has improved that portion of his game, he hasn't been matched up against guys capable of being diverse offensively other than Cormier. To build a case against Johnson's recent KO surge, one doesn't have to look very hard. Matchups vs. Ryan Bader, Jimi Manuwa, Alexander Gustafson, and Little Nog all ended in Rumble TKO's. Ryan Bader entered the ring timid and wasn't able to score a single strike. Bader is also a technical fighter not excelling in any one area as evidenced by his career full of painfully boring decision wins. Jimi Manuwa is a highly overrated fighter that was overmatched. He has one punch KO power like Johnson, but isn't a striker in the same class as Johnson. Gustafsson was Johnson's most impressive victim, but he had clearly peaked 15 months earlier in his epic five round fight with Jon Jones in Toronto, and finally the KO over Little Nog was exactly what would be expected over a 39 year old UFC veteran over the hill in his career. These results are obviously impressive to demolish professional fighters the way Johnson has over the past few years, but in no way should he be this heavily favored over the most diverse fighter (except for Cormier), he has faced in his career.
Glover is 9-2 in the UFC since 2006, and is entering the second surge into title contention in his career. Texeira had a very poor 2014 record wise, losing both his matches. The first was a dominate five-round decision loss to former champion Jon Jones, and the second was his biggest blunder on his record, as Phil Davis embarrassed him in front of his hometown crowd in a three round unanimous decision loss. If you were to remove this year from the 36 year old's record, we would talk about Glover in the same class as Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier, as a legend of the Light Heavyweight division. His diverse offensive capabilities and world class defense are evidence of this. Texeira has the ability to win by KO, decision, or submission posting five KO's, three subs and one decision win in his UFC career. He is as good on the ground as he is standing, and will be much more comfortable entering the ring than Ryan Bader was in February. One of the most important factors in this fight is that Texeira does not get knocked out. He has faced many fighters with knockout power that have been known for finishing opponents with their fists but he has not succumbed to that fate.
Texeira has more ways to win this fight, and hasn't been vulnerable to Johnson's only method of winning fights. We aren't suggesting that Rumble has no shot of KO-ing Glover, because that would be a completely untrue. But what we are suggesting is that Texeira has an equal shot to win this fight and those odds increase every time Johnson throw's a punch and doesn't turn Texeira's lights out. The odds here are based on the glowing KO reputation that Rumble Johnson possesses, but this opponent is a different animal than the opponents he has had success against. This is the biggest overlay on the fight card, and we will play it accordingly.
Matt Josephs
Astros vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9
Chris Tillman finally takes the mound after getting his start pushed back due to shoulder discomfort. Tillman is 15-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 25 starts for Baltimore. The righty got a no decision in Houston back in May giving up two runs and three hits in seven innings. The Astros offense is rolling right now scoring five runs or more in seven of their last 10 games. Also in good form are the Orioles who get to face Michael Fiers. The starter is 2-3 with a 6.40 ERA in 10 road starts with eight of them going over the total. Fiers is going to face an O's team that is averaging over five runs per game at home. The Houston bullpen has been vulnerable at times this season. These two should go over the total again on Saturday.
Nelly
Tampa Bay Rays - over Texas Rangers
Most assumed that Jake Odorizzi would finish the 2016 season on a contender and many likely wish they had dealt for the still only 26-year old right-hander given that he owns a 1.66 ERA while going 4-0 since the All Star break. He owns a nearly 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in that run of six starts and he has faced several formidable AL lineups in that run. He has a daunting task Saturday with the AL-leading Rangers in town but Texas is just 14-13 vs. the AL East this season. The Rangers are also only 33-30 in road games heading into this series, going just 12-15 the past three road trips. A.J. Griffin had a strong start to the season for the Rangers but since the break he owns a 6.06 ERA with a 6.88 FIP. He has allowed 34 hits in 32 innings in those six starts with 10 home runs allowed. The Rangers had appeared to shore up their bullpen midseason but that has been an area of weakness of late and a two-inning start from Lucas Harrell on Tuesday set the team back with five relievers needed to finish that extra-innings game. Tampa Bay is 12-8 in the last 20 games as this is a team that can play spoiler down the stretch and there appears to be a big edge on the mound tonight for the hosts.
Rocketman
Chicago @ Colorado
Play: Chicago -138
The Chicago Cubs travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Saturday night. The Chicago Cubs are 77-44 SU overall this year while Colorado comes in with a 59-63 SU overall record on the season. Mike Montgomery is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA overall this year, 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA on the road this season and 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeff Hoffman will be making his first start of the season for the Rockies. Chicago Cubs are scoring 5.3 runs per game on the road this year. Chicago Cubs are allowing only 3.4 runs per game overall this year, 3.9 runs per game on the road this season and 3.3 runs per game at night. Colorado is allowing 6.3 runs per game at home this year and 6.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +142
The L.A. Dodgers are a long way from home with a losing road record, their fifth straight road contest. They come off a 9-2 loss yesterday as a -175 favorite, part of a 3-5 run losing four times as chalk. The Dodgers go with Brett Anderson (0-1, 45.00 ERA), who was roasted in his season debut Sunday, allowing five runs on five hits in one inning against Pittsburgh before leaving with a sprained left wrist. The Dodgers are 1-7 when Anderson starts with five days of rest, plus 3-7 away against a left-handed starter. Cincinnati has gone 20-12 since the All-Star break due in part to a resurgent bullpen, winning four in a row including the last two as a dog. Cincinnati is 5-2 in the last seven starts made by Brandon Finnegan, including a pair of shutout wins over the Cardinals and Padres. He faced the Dodgers once this season and dominated, allowing one run in eight innings and five hits, so grab the hot home dog and play the Reds.
Hank Goldberg
Bucs vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars -3
I’m leaning to the Jaguars as home favorites over the Bucs. Jacksonville is a very talented team and it should have beaten the Jets in the preseason opener but turnovers hurt them. Tampa Bay is still having growing pains and I believe the Jags get the win at home. Lay the points with the Jaguars.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +115 over PITTSBURGH
The Fish belted out 16 hits last night on Gerrit Cole and took the opener of this series, 6-5. They’ll take a step down in class here when facing Chad Kuhl and his misleading 3-0 record. Kuhl has a very ordinary BB/K split of 9/22 in 31 frames. His first-pitch strike rate of 52% is asking for trouble. Kuhl’s 3.73 ERA does not have the support of his underlying numbers, which include an average K-rate, a fly-ball lean profile and just a 7% swing and miss rate. Truth be told, Kuhl’s 80% strand rate is doing the heavy lifting. His xERA of 4.62 is a more accurate account of his very average skills. It’s also worth noting that before being called up on June 26, Kuhl was absolutely rocked in four consecutive minor league starts. In no way does he deserve to be the favorite here pitching for the inferior squad. He’s also the second best starter in this matchup.
Enter David Phelps, one of the most under the radar pitchers in the majors right now. Phelps spent most of the year in the Marlins bullpen but he is now transitioning to starting again, a role he is quite familiar with. Phelps has appeared in 53 games this year with the last three coming as a starter. He’ll now make his fourth consecutive start and there is a great chance he’ll be stretched out here. In his first start, Phelps went 4.1 innings in Colorado and allowed just four hits and zero runs. His next start at home against the Giants saw him get stretched out to five innings. He allowed just four hits and one run. In his last start in Cinci, he went 5.1 innings and allowed just four hits and two runs. Over those past three starts covering 14.2 innings, Phelps struck out 18 batters with the support of an elite 15% swing and miss rate. Note that Phelps’ skills against right-handers have been better than any pitcher in MLB not named Scherzer: 55/7 K/BB split in 37 innings. That elite command has produced elite results. Overall, Phelps has 86 K’s in 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA. He has the support of a xERA of 2.84. He’ll now face a heavy right-handed batting lineup here that will send just two lefties to the plate. Wrong side favored.
SPORTS WAGERS
TENNESSEE +101 over Carolina
Ron Rivera is 11-10 in preseason games including last week's 22-19 loss to Baltimore and we're not sure what could possibly motivate the Panthers to win this one. They have much bigger fish to fry after a Super Bowl appearance last season and even though their starters will see a little more time this week, Rivera isn't going to expose his stars to potential injury. The Panthers don't need to sell tickets or try to create a winning culture. A win for the Panthers here would be making it out of this game 100% healthy and that’s how Rivera figures to play it.
The Titans played for keeps last week in a 27-10 victory over San Diego. The Titans racked up well over 300 yards and we don't expect new head coach Mike Mularkey to take his foot off the gas. Mularkey is now 4-1 in preseason games in his last two stints as a head coach and he needs to give the fans in Tennessee something to cheer for. The Titans were only at 90% capacity last year, which ranks 29th out of 32 teams. It also doesn't help that they haven't made the playoffs in seven seasons. They are a team focused on winning this preseason to set the tone for the regular season and to sell tickets. After watching the Titans roll over the Chargers last week and playing like it meant the playoffs, we'd like to keep the Titans our little secret this preseason but we're men of the people. You're welcome.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO +152 over Edmonton
The Argonauts' move to BMO Field hasn't lived up to expectations when it comes to drawing more fans to the game but that could change here. A popular annual event is the Canadian National Exhibition, which draws 10’s of thousands daily to the exhibition grounds, which is where BMO Field is situated. The league has made this game a 4PM EST start which will give many already inside the grounds to go to both the game and spend a few hours afterward enjoying the many features of the CNE. It should be a much livelier atmosphere than the Argos have had all season. Toronto is right in the thick of it in the East Division sitting in second place but despite that, they are getting no respect in the market. Odds makers have made them a 3-point pooch here. Losing outright to the Bombers at home last week combined with Ricky Ray’s absence assures us of an inflated number today on Toronto. We’ll gladly take it.
Edmonton finally won a game last week after three straight losses but we're not going to be fooled by one game. The Eskies needed an amazing series of events just to win that game, let alone cover it. Anyone that saw last week’s finish knows exactly what we're talking about. These are not the same Grey Cup champions from a year ago. Edmonton's defense has been gutted while Jason Maas hasn't been able to make the adjustment from coordinator to head man. Truth is, Edmonton has been in rotten form every single week for a month. They were awful last week despite winning, they blew a 31-6 lead versus Hamilton, they were torched by the Bombers and looked stale in a loss to Ottawa too. Edmonton was a 3½-point road dog at Ottawa just two weeks ago and now they are spotting points to the Argos (a team that beat Ottawa). We’ll do the math and play Toronto outright. Lastly, this is a coaching mismatch in the Argos favor and that, too, figures into our choice.
Note: We are passing on Hamilton/Saskatchewan.