Free Picks for Saturday, August 5th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Mike Lundin
Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Under 9
The Seattle Mariners defeated the Kansas City Royals 5-2 Friday night. I think we'll see a similar amount of runs scored when the teams do battle again here the next day.
Felix Hernandez (5-4, 4.28 ERA) will take the ball for the Mariners. King Felix has not been at his very best this season, and he's been tagged with four runs in each of his last two starts. Hernandez lost to the Royals on July 4 when he was charged with six runs (five earned) through six innings, but he owns a solid 3.05 ERA in 14 career starts against KC.
Under is 6-0 in Hernandez's last six road starts vs. the Royals who turn to left-hander Danny Duffy.
Duffy (7-6, 3.42 ERA) has held three of his last four opponents to just one run each. Under is 6-1 in Duffy's last seven home starts, and he is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in seven career outings (five starts) vs. the Mariners.
Ray Monohan
St Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St Louis +105
The Cardinals and the Reds face off on Saturday, and with the pitching match up on the mound, the Cardinals have a ton of value as underdogs. On the mound for the Cardinals is Lance Lynn who has been the Cardinals best pitcher this year. He comes into this game with a 9-6 record and an ERA of 3.20. In his last six games he has given up a total of six earned runs.
In four of his last five starts the Cardinals have come away winners in the game. He has a ton of confidence right now, and it is showing on the mound. I think the Cardinals will do enough to come out ahead at the plate and give Lynn another win. Some trends to note. Cardinals are 4-1 in Lynns last 5 starts. Reds are 2-9 in their last 11 home games.
Scott Spreitzer
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Play:Diamondbacks -129
The Diamondbacks have dropped four straight Taijuan Walker starts, but they certainly weren't all his fault and I believe he and they are getting "just what the doctor ordered" to land in the win column on Saturday. Walker has a 3.05 ERA & 0.90 WHIP in his last three starts, but he's received little help from his offense. We expect that to change tonight when the D-backs step-in against young Chris Stratton. The righthander has allowed 12 earned runs and 23 base runners in his last three appearances, spanning just 11 innings. His lone start did not go well, getting knocked all over the park by Detroit. Arizona has dominated righthanders this season, nearly 20 games over .500, while averaging over 5 rpg. Meanwhile, the Giants are averaging just 3.84 rpg at home against righties this season. Arizona enters on a 9-1 run against teams playing less than .400 baseball, while the Giants have won just 8 of their last 26 against teams with a winning record.
Art Aronson
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Under 9½
Lance Lynn: He’s 9-6 with a 3.20 ERA. Lynn most recently held Arizona to two runs off four hits and three K’s over six frames in a 3-2 win for the Cardinals on Sunday. Lynn has faced the Reds twice this year already and given up just two runs spanning 11 innings of work (note that he’s a very respectable 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA in all “night” games this season as well.)
Luis Castillo: He’s 2-4 with a 3.56 ERA. Castillo enters off a gem against Miami on Sunday, giving up one run over eight innings to go along with six K’s. He now has three quality starts out of his last five trips to the hill while posting a solid 29:9 K:BB in that span.
The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that runs will likely be at a premium tonight, so consider the UNDER.
Marc Lawrence
St Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St Louis +115
Edges - Cardinals: Lynn 5-2 with 1.90 ERA and 0.99 WHIP last seven overall team starts… Reds: Castillo 4.58 ERA at home as opposed to 2.97 ERA away this season… With Lynn 8-5 at night as opposed to 3-6 during the day this season, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Andre Ramirez
Alejandro Perez vs. Andre Soukhamthath
Play: Andre Soukhamthath +105
Alejandro Perez is now five fights into his UFC career and remains unranked at 135 pounds, which should give you a pretty good indication of where he’s at in terms of getting noticed. Like “Asian Sensation,” his nickname is more inspiring than his performances, though I won’t downplay his impressive stoppage over Ian Entwistle.
This may actually turn out to be one of the better fights on the card. Both Soukhamthath and Perez are prolific finishers and the way the bantamweight division has opened up in recent months, there’s room for new blood in the top 10. Expect a wild fight that ends with an even wilder finish.
Matt Josephs
Padres vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7½
Gerrit Cole has gone under in 15 of his 22 starts this season. He's facing the Padres for the second straight time. Last time out he held them to one run and five hits in seven innings striking out eight while walking two. San Diego's offense isn't very good and they are hitting around .235 on the season. Dinelson Lamet beat the Buccos at home last time out. He held them to two runs and two hits in six innings. Lamet has terrible numbers on the road, but I don't exactly think Pittsburgh's offense is in a good spot right now. Entering Friday night, they had gone under in six of their last seven. Both teams have highly questionable bullpens but I think the starters hold each opponent down. Take the under.
Mike Anthony
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Under 9
The New York Yankees have the third best bullpen ERA in the American League, and it should continue to improve. One of the teams with an even more effective opponent is the Cleveland Indians. They have a team bullpen ERA below 3.00, led by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Bullpens don't always getting fully reflected into the lines. As a result, I think we'll see a lot more UNDERS in Yankees games going forward, and the same goes for the Tribe.
Jim Feist
Brewers at Rays
Pick: Over
Milwaukee has a strong offense and picks up the DH for this series in Tampa, a good home run park. Starter Zach Davies (4.42 ERA) is allowing batters to hit .281 off him. The Over is 9-3-1 in the Brewers last 13 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay has a strong offense, too, 15-6 over the total at home, 17-6 over on astroturf. Alex Cobb is off a 14-7 loss to Houston and the over is 8-3 when Cobb starts with 4 days of rest.
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie is the Cardinals over the Reds.
While they have lost 5 of their last 8 games, including last night's series opener, I will back the Cardinals tonight to get the win over the Reds, as St. Louis does have Lance Lynn toeing the rubber.
Lynn has been as solid as they come, going 3-0 over his last 5 starts, while allowing no more than 2 runs in any of his last 6 starts this season. He will keep his team in this game and give them every chance in the world to get to rookie Luis Castillo.
Castillo is coming off of his 2nd win in the bigs, as he handcuffed the Marlins in Miami. At home his numbers have not been as impressive, as he is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.58.
I will ride Lynn over Castillo in this one.
2* ST. LOUIS
Jack Brayman
My free winner for tonight is on the Boston Red Sox on the Run Line, as these guys owe me after falling asleep at the wheel last night with the same play. The Red Sox went into the weekend having won three straight with an extra day of rest tossed in, and they almost lost outright.
I'm not as upset about the loss as I am in that my players had to suffer because of a brutal reason. The Red Sox enjoyed the extra day off, from Thursday's rainout, and likely were sluggish from celebrating a three-game win streak. That's why I know my 50 Dimer is going to get some of that back tonight, as I've pinpointed the best bounce back on the card.
But with this freebie tonight, Boston will be back on track against a White Sox team that is mired in a 3-17 skid since July 14. Chicago, with the worst record in the American League, is last in the A.L. Central and trail the division-leading Cleveland Indians by 18 games.
While the Red Sox are teeing off, we're talking about a Chicago team that had the second-worst batting average (.229) in July, and hasn't shown me much over the first several days in August.
I like Boston to regroup after last night's slumber party in extra innings.
3* RED SOX -1.5
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play release is the Indians on the Run Line over the Yankees.
Great value tonight at Progressive Field playing against a New York team that has lost their way at the plate.
The Yankees come into this one having lost 4 in a row, as they have been able to score only 6 runs in those 4 losses.
The Indians took Friday's game, 5-1, and they won last night 7-2. No reason to think they won't win by at least 2 runs again tonight.
Jordan Montgomery has never pitched this deep into a season, and the rookie's struggles are evident, as his July ERA was a lofty 5.90!
Danny Salazar goes for Terry Francona's team, and he will be making his third start since coming off the DL. He has allowed just 2 runs to score over his 13 innings back in the rotation.
Until I see the Yankees actually score some runs, they are a go against in my book.
Take the Tribe on the Run Line for Saturday night.
4* CLEVELAND -1.5
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Angels over the Athletics, in American League West play.
Wouldn't it be something if the Angels came back to make the playoffs? The Halos from Anaheim have won four straight and are just two games out of the second wild card spot. Tonight they'll blast the A's, who are in from Oakland.
Oakland is a horrific 17-37 away from home, while the Angels are 31-23 in Anaheim. Last night's 8-6 win pulled the Halos to .500 overall this season, at 55-55. And that's usually a good motivator for a team, as it will look to further improve once it gets to this point.
Take the Angels in a rout.
1* ANGELS -1.5
STEVE JANUS
Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Royals -127
Play On - Home teams (KANSAS CITY) - ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games, starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings. This system is 113-59 (66%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.