BRANDON LEE
Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Royals -127
No shame in yesterday's loss to Seattle, as they had one of the hottest pitchers in baseball going in James Paxton, who has arguably been the best the AL has to offer since July 1. I'll take my chances on KC bouncing back with a win at home tonight behind their ace Danny Duffy, who has a 2.93 ERA in 7 home starts and rolls in with a solid 2.95 ERA in his last 3 outings. Seattle will send out Felix Hernandez, who is a big name, but owns a mere 5.40 ERA in 5 road starts and a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 outings.
DOUG UPSTONE
Marlins vs. Braves
Play: Over 9
For today, I'm taking the OVER 9 in this NL East matchup. Miami starting pitcher Daniel Straily has been throwing like he's arm weary, as in his last four starts covering 20 innings, he has given up 34 hits (five that flew over the fence). He will take on Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz, who was having a pretty good season, but he was roughed up in last outing in Philadelphia for five runs in four innings, while handing out three free passes. With Foltynewicz 15-5 OVER in home night games the last three years, I will back the higher score.
DAVE PRICE
Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Royals -128
The Kansas City Royals have lost 4 of their last 5 and will be hungry for a victory here Saturday against the Seattle Mariners as they continue to try and chase down the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Their most talented starter is Danny Duffy, and he gets the ball today. Duffy is 7-6 with a 3.42 ERA in 17 starts this year, including 3-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 7 home starts. He has given up just 2 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings over his last 2 starts on the road against the Orioles and Tigers. Felix Hernandez is past his prime and looks to really be declining this season. He is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 5 road starts this year. Duffy is 1-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Seattle, and the Royals have gone 4-1 in those games. Felix gave up 6 runs, 10 base runners and 2 homers in 6 innings of a 3-7 home loss to the Royals in his only start against them this season on July 4th. The Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
CHASE DIAMOND
Mariners vs. Royals
Play: Royals -125
This game has the 56-55 Mariners and the 56-52 Royals. Thursday we hit on the Royals last night we backed the Mariners to a big Platinum Club win and tonight we go with the Royals. Danny Duffy has better numbers the King Felix who is always over valued by the books. Royals are tied with the Yankees and they will be going all out to get this win tonight. Duffy won 7-3 in an earlier season match-up against King Felix.
JIMMY BOYD
Rangers vs. Twins
Play: Twins +117
I like the value here with Minnesota as a home dog against the Rangers on Saturday. The Twins defeated Texas 8-4 on Friday behind a complete game from the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon. The public was all over the Rangers in that one and are again pounding Texas. I'm not sure why, as the Ragners are just 2-5 in their last 7.
Texas sends out Cole Hamels, who despite a 5-1 record in 12 starts own 4.01 ERA. Most of that success has also come at home, as he's 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in 6 road starts. The overall numbers aren't great for Twins starter Kyle Gibson, but he's pitched well in his last 2 outings with a very strong effort in his last start, which came at home against the Tigers. Gibson allowed just 3 runs on 5 hits in 7 1/3 innings of work.
DOC'S SPORTS
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½
The New York Yankees made some big moves before the trade deadline. But what may have been overlooked is how deep their bullpen is now after the acquisitions. David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle (both from the White Sox) are great additions to a bullpen that has already been dominant with Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren and more. In fact, the Yankees have the third best bullpen ERA in the American League, and it should continue to improve. One of the teams with an even more effective opponent is the Cleveland Indians. They have a team bullpen ERA below 3.00, led by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Bullpens don't always getting fully reflected into the lines. As a result, I think we'll see a lot more UNDERS in Yankees games going forward, and the same goes for the Tribe. Runs will be hard to come by, so take the UNDER in our Saturday Free Play selection. Doc's is on a nice roll and is looking forward to a huge second half
JACK JONES
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Indians -138
The Cleveland Indians are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now at 11-3 in their last 14 games overall. They have a big edge on the mound over the New York Yankees and we're getting them at a pretty good value here Saturday.
Danny Salazar has been lights out in his two starts since returning from the disabled list. He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 6 base runners in 13 innings while striking out 16 batters in wins over the White Sox and Blue Jays.
Jordan Montgomery has been shaky of late and on the road this season. He is 3-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in 10 road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.45 ERA in his last three starts.
Montgomery is 1-9 (-8.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Cleveland is 21-3 in its last 24 after two straight wins by 4 runs or more. The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
JOHN MARTIN
Tigers vs. Orioles
Play: Over 11
Expect a big offensive output at Camden Yards tonight in this matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles. Wade Miley is having an awful season at 5-9 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 22 starts. He has just 96 strikeouts compared to 63 walks in 109 1/3 innings this season. That high walk rate has been a big reason for his inflated ERA. Miley owns a 7.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two previous starts against the Tigers. Detroit will be giving the ball to Drew VerHagen, who will be making his firs start this season. He went 7-7 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 19 starts for Triple-A Toledo before getting the call up. If that's all he could muster in the minors, he has no shot of holding down this Orioles lineup. And VerHagen has a 20.25 ERA in two previous relief appearances against Baltimore.
JOHN RYAN
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Phillies +180
Play: PHILADELPHIA using the Money Line We have two strong data sets that underscore a strong opportunity with the Phillies in their match up tonight against the Colorado Rockies.
The first data set lends support to the Phillies to:
Play against all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250
That favorite is averaging more than 4.7 runs/game
Facing a starter with an ERA between 5.20 and 5.70.
And the favorite has been a hitting team batting .280 or better over their last 20 games.
This combination of parameters and subsequent team data has produced a 31-18 record good for 63% winners since 1997.
The second data set lends support to the Phillies:
Play on a team against a 1.5 run line.
Team is averaging 4.0 to 4.5 runs/game.
Facing a starter who has an ERA between 5.20 and 5.70.
and with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
This data set has produced a 40-14 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.1% winners. The situations record this season is 7-2.
CAJUN SPORTS
Philadelphia vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -188
The Phillies are in Colorado for a weekend set against the host Rockies with Game Two scheduled for Saturday night. The Rockies took Game One on Friday night winning by a final score of 4 to 3 as a -150 home favorite. Colorado qualifies as our Tech and System Play of the Day supported by a team angle that tells us the Rockies as a -130 or more favorite coming off a home game having won their last two games while their opponent has lost their last two games have produced a record of 18-2 SU for a profit of +$1500 units. We want to play ON MLB home teams coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit, 774-582 SU (+6041) including a record of 42-24 SU (+1222) the last sixty-six qualifying plays. We want to play ON MLB Home Favorites coming off a SU win in which they won by exactly one run, 586-376 SU (+4944). We are not huge fans of laying this kind of chalk but there are situations that warrant making this type of play we will lay this number and back the Rockies on Saturday night
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +125 over CLEVELAND
A parade of injuries to Danny Salazar that began in in June of 2016 reads like a big flashing caution sign. Shoulder fatigue, elbow soreness and forearm tightness. Salazar has thrown just 68 innings this season. He missed almost two months this year because of more shoulder issues but was dominant in his July 22 return. He pitched seven one-hit scoreless innings with eight K’s and no walks against the Blue Jays. His second game back against the South Side was good too, as he went six full and allowed three hits and two runs with two walks issued and eight more K’s. Temptation is to think “ace!", but he's yet to throw 200 IP or show control issues are behind him. He’s also prone to giving up jacks because he’s a two-pitch pitcher and when his sinker isn’t sharp, he becomes vulnerable. Salazar’s 39%/25%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates reveals why he is prone to giving up jacks in bunches like he did earlier this year when he surrendered 10 bombs over a five-game stretch. Salazar is a quality starter with risk. He can certainly dominate but we’re not going to trust him against the HR hitting Yanks at a HR hitting park. Salazar’s 4.63 ERA and 20% hr/f is simply too hazardous to get behind.
Jordan Montgomery has been a big surprise this season. Montgomery was one of the AL's more valuable starters during June with a 2.59 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go along with his xERA of 3.15. Things have been shakier in July but it’s not because his skills fell off, it’s because luck-driven stats (strand rate, BABIP) worked him against him. Montgomery hasn’t just feasted on same-sided hitters either. He’s been effective against both sides with a 52% groundball rate, 104 K’s in 111 frames and a 13% swing and miss rate. With good control mixed in, Montgomery’s sub-4 xERA and 1.22 WHIP come with the support of a solid skill foundation and there could be more to come. We’ll bite.
CINCINNATI -1½ +151 over St. Louis
Luis Castillo is a rookie pitcher who looked like an impact hurler in July (3.62 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and those marks weren't flukes, as they came with strong skills support: 8.9 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, 55% grounders and a near elite 3.42 xERA. Luis Castillo has been high on our radar for weeks and still remains one of MLB’s most undervalued starters. That said, this wager is more about fading Lance Lynn and the Cardinals.
Lots of moving parts here in regards to the Cardinals. First, there is tension in the dugout between manager Mike Matheny and his iconic catcher, Yadier Molina, after Matheny made a comment about Yadier’s lack of hustle (he actually said, “He looked tired running the bases and needed a rest”). Molina fired back via Instagram with this:
"I train to play 174 games because that's what it takes to be a Champion. I'm not tired and the day I feel tired I'll express it myself. #misinforming."
Well, Molina was benched on Thursday of this past week and was also benched in yesterday’s opener, a 3-2 Cincinnati win that should have been about 6-2 or worse. Matheny made a bad choice by picking on Molina of all people, which is likely going to cost him his job at the end of the year. He feels it too, as the dugout is on Molina’s side and not Matheny’s. A divided dugout is not a winning one. Matheny is now “over-managing” to try and save his job. He’s made more moves over the past two or three games than Bobby Fischer did in the 70’s. The Cardinals are a wounded team worth attacking and Lance Lynn is this year’s Marco Estrada.
The reason Estrada survived two years of poor skills is because of a BABIP of .214. BABIP is a pure luck-driven stat that will help determine if a pitcher has a good or bad year on paper. Every year there are extremes at both ends of the spectrum and this year’s top beneficiary is Lance Lynn with a BABIP of .225. To give you an idea of how lucky that is, consider some of today’s other starter’s BABIP, like Jon Gray’s .369, Danny Salazar’s .327 or Drew Pomeranz’s .335. Lynn’s BABIP is more than 100 points lower than any of those guys but eventually it all evens out and Lynn’s luck is going to run out too. That doesn’t mean it will happen today but the point is that Lynn is the luckiest pitcher in baseball with an ERA/xERA split of 3.20/4.61. Over his last three starts, Lynn’s xERA is 7.20. Over his last 31 frames, Lynn has struck out a mere 17 batters. His first-pitch strike rate is 53% overall and down to 48% over his last three starts. His swing and miss rate is 7% and now his line-drive rate is also increasing, as it’s gone from 18% to 28% over his last seven starts. All the signs of fatigue are there while the poor skills have been there all season long. Lynn’s extremely misleading ERA is the direct result of balls being hit right at people. Therefore, things are absolutely, 100% going to take a big turn for the worse on him and this is exactly the type of park that should occur in.
HOUSTON -1½ +122 over Toronto
Charlie Morton - strikeout artist? Acquired mostly as an innings-eater by Philadelphia in 2016, Charlie Morton didn't do much eating after a torn hamstring ended his season in April. Morton surfaced with Houston for 2017, where he's posted more Ks (97) than innings (88) thus far through 15 starts. A 33-year-old flashing never-before-seen velocity? Odd, but we'll take it. A couple ticks on the fastball and a knockout curve (22% swing and miss) have worked wonders for Morton's K-rate. The strikeout gains haven't come at the expense of control either. As a result, his command has skyrocketed. Morton's two-seamer continues to be a worm killer (60% grounders). Charlie Morton has long been an extreme groundball pitcher with decent control but his newfound ability to miss bats makes for an attractive target that is completely legit. He’ll now face a Blue Jays team that is gripping their bats tightly and that is getting used to being blown out.
Marco Estrada is coming off back-to-back good pitching lines but that’s all they are. He hasn’t stepped up his game and was exactly the same pitcher in those two starts that was getting whacked for the first four months of the season. Incidentally, those two last starts came against Oakland and the South Side. He’ll now face Houston, who has struck out the least amount of times in MLB. Marco Estrada has out-performed poor secondary numbers for basically his entire career but that train has come to a screeching halt as the magic disappears from his trusty changeup. In those last two starts, Estrada’s groundball/fly-ball split was 27%/58%. He enters this game with a 7.22 ERA, 7.94 xERA and 2.06 WHIP through his past 10 starts and this isn’t the basement dwelling A’s or White Sox he’ll be facing. The fade continues.
Philadelphia -1½ +300 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
18-30 + 18.55 units
Pass CFL
Power Sports
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Angels -161
The Halos have started out August on the right foot. They're now 4-0 after being division rival Oakland last night. The 8-6 victory on Friday was certainly not w/o some good fortune as three consecutive walks in the 7th inning led to a four-run rally. But in their previous series, they certainly were dominant, outscoring the Phillies 19-5 in what ended up being a three-game sweep. In terms of run differential, the A's are the American League's worst team. I see LA continuing to take advantage of this advantageous stretch of game w/ another win tonight.
Oakland had just split a series w/ Bay Area rival San Francisco earlier in the week, but gave up 10+ runs in both losses. Paul Blackburn starts tonight and while the team won his start vs. SF, it's important to note that he allowed five runs. Angels bats have been hot recently, averaging 7.1 rpg over the last week and the team batting average is above .300. Oakland, as a team, is just dreadful on the road. They've been outscored by 1.5 rpg over the course of the year and are 17-37. That makes them one of the worst road teams in all of baseball.
For the 1st time since April, Tyler Skaggs will start here for the Angels. It's an ideal opponent for him to face as over the last eight days, Oakland starters have an 8.00 ERA and have failed to get out of the fourth inning four times. They've allowed 4+ runs in seven of those eight games. This doesn't even factor in a terrible bullpen which has a 5.90 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road. Tonight should go a lot more smoothly for the Angels as they make it five in a row!
Bob Balfe
Rockies -1.5
Last night the Phillies had themselves 10 hits but only 3 runs. This is a park in which you must take full advantage of driving runners in. The Phillies are improving, but their hot streak should come to an end in this park as Colorado is just too high powered on offense. The money line at this price is always too high so we will take the run line.
Bob Balfe
Rockies -1.5
Last night the Phillies had themselves 10 hits but only 3 runs. This is a park in which you must take full advantage of driving runners in. The Phillies are improving, but their hot streak should come to an end in this park as Colorado is just too high powered on offense. The money line at this price is always too high so we will take the run line.
Executive Sports
New York at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -136
Both teams fighting for to win their respective division. Cleveland trying to stay on top of theirs, while Yankees at 3 games back trying to overtake Red Sox. Go today with the hot Indians who are 11-3 the past 14, where 2 of their 3 losses came against division leading Red Sox.