Free Picks and Service Plays for Saturday, August 6th, 2016. These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
DAVE COKIN
PHILLIES VS PADRES
PLAY: PHILLIES -102
This will be the debut for Jake Thompson, one of the top prospects in the Phillies organization. Thompson had been doing pretty well climbing the ladder in his first three pro seasons, but he has blossomed this year and looks ready for the majors. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but Thompson has a five-pitch arsenal and his command has really improved this season.
This looks like a nice spot for Thompson to debut, as the Padres aren’t as potent against righties, and it’s obviously not a real pressure packed scenario as neither of these teams is going anywhere this year.
Paul Clemens gets the call for San Diego, and he’s been passable but really isn’t anything more than a back of the rotation guy at best. I’m somewhat fond of giving debuting callups a roll if they’ve been doing well at AAA, and Thompson certainly fits that profile, so I’ll try the Phillies here.
Sleepyj
Cubs -1.5 -120
I'll back the cubs here again on the RL...A's just can't hit right now and it's about time Arrieta started his late season form...Arrieta hasn't picked up a win to his record dating back to June 27th...Yes June !!...He should get one here today...It's been a mixed bag for him and the Cubs when he steps on the mound...If he pitches good, the Cubs can't hit...If he pitches bad, the Cubs seem to hit..I think they get on the same page here and Arrieta pitches good and the Cubs offer some run support here...Cubs have now won 5 straight and they look to pad the lead they have right now for the playoffs...Arrieta is still striking guys out at a good rate and the A's bats have gone cold..Not a good recipe for Oakland to pick up a win here..Although we need to win by 2 or more runs tonight..A's will send out Sonny Gray and he has been rather bad his last 4 starts..He has allowed a total of 6 Hr's in his last 4 games...Plenty of walks as well...He has been getting hit and the deep shot is putting runs on the board in bunches..Gray is good, but he doesn't seem to have any form right now..The current situation with the A's doesn't give him much to root for either...Gray looks to be getting tied as we near the playoffs and he has 7 run ER games in 3 of his last 6...Cubs are hot and covering the RL looks solid...I expect the public to pound the Cubs here once again, but we want the best price possible..I think at -1.5 (-120) we get the best of the market on this game here...Cubs roll
Rob Vinciletti
Orioles vs. White Sox
Play: Orioles -130
The Orioles are 5-0 as a road favorite from -125 to -150. The White sox are 1-5 as a home dog from +125 to +150 and have lost 5 of the last 7 here to Baltimore. In fact road favorites off a road favored win by 2+ runs like the Orioles are 19-4 if they scored 5+ runs on 10+ hits and had 3+ errors in the win. This system has a 90% subset in effect as well. The Orioles have won 19 of 23 when C. Tillman is pitching and he has a solid 3.13 road era. Rodon for Chicago has lost 12 of 17 starts and has a 5.06 home era and a 5.25 Era vs Baltimore. Look for the Orioles to take another tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Indians vs. Yankees
Play: Indians -150
Edges - Indians: Corey Kluber 2.01 ERA with 1.01 WHIP last seven starts; and 31 Ks with 4 BBs last four starts. Yankees: CC Sabathia 6.49 ERA with 1.51 WHIP last seven starts; and 3-6 in day team starts this season. With the Tribe a rock-solid 20-10 in games against southpaws this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
3G-Sports
Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees +143
Mark Teixeira getting 5 hits over the last 16 at bats, raises his batting average to a pitiful .198 - but he went 3-7 (.429 )with 3 RBI and 5 walks in his 7 at bats in August, as of the 8.5.2016 period. Teixeira also has 7 homers, 15 RBI runs at home. This is going to be good game for the 36 year old vet, and the Yanks in New York. The 35-year-old Rajai Davis been struggling really badly and cant seem to get out of his miserable hitting slump, going just 3-18 (.167 average) with only 1 RBI in the last 7 days, in the period of 8.4.2016. And his confidence appears to be shaken as well. Loss here for tribe. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Yankees win as home dogs here on Saturday afternoon.
Mike Lundin
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -110
The Miami Marlins defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-3 on Friday. The Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss and I like them to bounce back with Chad Bettis on the mound on Saturday.
Bettis (9-6, 5.16) is coming off a solid month of July where he was 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in six starts. He fanned a season-high-tying eight hitters his last time out and has the advantage of making his first career start against the Marlins.
Miami turns to Andrew Cashner (4-7, 4.54 ERA) who impressed in his team debut since coming over from the Padres. He's not fared well in previous visits to Coors Field though with a 6.94 ERA in eight career games (four starts). He's 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in eight road starts on the season and the Fish are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Rockies are 5-0 in Bettis' last five home starts and we have a favorable umpire with the Marlins losing each of their last four games with Clint Fagan behind home plate.
Jesse Schule
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -110
The Rockies wasted a fantastic effort from Jorge De La Rosa last night, blowing a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth. They look to bounce back in Game 2 at home Saturday, and they've won 11 of their last 14 games overall. Andrew Cashner will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's looking for his first road win of the season. Cashner (4-7, 4.54 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits and three walks over six innings in a loss at Toronto in his last road start. He's 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in eight starts on the road this season. He's been hit hard in previous meetings with the Rockies, as Colorado's lineup is hitting a combined .322 over 121 at bats versus the right-hander. The Rockies hand the ball to Chad Bettis, who has delivered five consecutive quality starts. Bettis (9-6, 5.16 ERA) allowed just one run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 7-3 win over the Braves in his last home start. The Rockies have won eight of his last 10 starts, and all five of his home starts during that span. Bettis is 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in his last five starts.
MMA OddsBreaker
Rony Jason to win inside the distance
The most likely outcome of the Jason vs Bermudez fight is a Bermudez decision, but with Dennis Bermudez fighting, there's also always a big chance of something wild happening. Bermudez is extremely aggressive, often time to a fault, and he doesn't have a great chin. That's something Jason could take advantage of. Jason has a very good Brazilian jiu-jitsu game, particularly off his back, and Bermudez has been submitted twice inside the Octagon. Bermudez also was knocked out about a year ago, so if Jason connects with something heavy enough, he could put him to sleep as well. Jason can't win a decision, so the Jason inside the distance prop adds some extra value to my play on him here
Jim Feist
Mets at Tigers
Pick: Under
New York heads out on the road with a bad offense, No. 28 in baseball in runs scored, No. 24 in on-base percentage. Comerica Park is huge, great for pitchers, and the Under is 18-7-1 in the Mets last 26 road games. Logan Verrett goes for New York, allowing three runs or less in four straight and 8 of the last 9. Detroit is playing good defense and pitching well, on a 15-7-1 run under the total. The Under is 10-4 in the Tigers last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter. Starter Matt Boyd has excellent control and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. He throws best at home with a 2.63 ERA here this season. And the Under is 9-4 in the Tigers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros
The Astros got a great effort from the struggling Dallas Keuchel last night, as last year’s Cy Young winner in the AL shut out the Rangers 5-0. Houston needed a jolt, as they entered last night’s contest having lost NINE of 10 against the Rangers in 2016. Th victory brought Houston with 5 1/2 games of Texas in the AL West and the Astros also trail in the AL wild card race by 3 1/2 games. Doug Fister (10-7, 3.56 ERA) returns from the paternity list to make this start for Houston, while the Rangers (63-47) counter with Lucas Harrell (3-2, 3.57 ERA in 2016, pitching for both the Braves and Rangers). It marks his second start with Texas and first career appearance against the Astros.
Harrell was victorious in his Texas debut, allowing three runs on four hits in six innings against Kansas City. The best season of this 31-year-old’s career came as a member of the Astros in 2012, when he went 11-11 with a 3.76 ERA in 32 starts. Harrell owns a 9-14 record (4.12 ERA) in 36 career appearances (29 starts) at Minute Maid Park. Fister’s W-L record is 10-7 but the team has won all four of his no decisions, making him 14-7, plus-$812 vs the moneyline (that ranks 12th-best among all starters). Texas could be a VERY dangerous team when trade deadline acquisitions Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy hit their stride, so Houston had better make up some ground in this series.
Last night was a good way to start and my bet here says Fister will do his part. Injuries limited him to 15 starts last year but in 2013 (Det) and 2014 (Was) he went a combined 30-15, with his teams going 36-21 in all of his starts. Houston (with Fister) is the play.
Scott Spreitzer
Milwaukee vs. Arizona
Play: Milwaukee +112
Patrick Corbin has been nothing short of disastrous his last seven starts and it says something about the Arizona pitching staff that he's still in the rotation. The Diamondbacks are mired in last place and they have lost Corbin's last five starts by a combined score of 52-20. Corbin is 0-7 with a 6.91 ERA at home and he allowed four runs and six hits in five innings against Milwaukee this season. The Brewers have won Matt Garza's last two starts as he finally seems to have turned it around after starting the season on the disabled list. Garza gave up four earned runs in 11 innings in the two wins while walking three. Milwaukee has won its last four games against left-handed starters and the Diamondbacks have lost 38 of their last 54 home games, including 16 of Corbin's last 21 home starts.
Oskeim Sports
New York at Detroit
Play: Detroit -160
Detroit southpaw Matt Boyd is finally showing signs of life since being recalled on July 9, going 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in four starts. Those results have been supported by a 27.7% K% (10.18 K/9), 4.8% BB% (1.77 BB/9) and a 22.9% K-BB%. The 25-year-old also owns a 2.63 ERA at home and should have success against a scuffling New York lineup that is averaging just 3.6 runs per game on the road (.298 OBP) and 3.5 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.306 OBP).
Boyd is also backed by a solid Detroit bullpen that owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home, a 3.37 ERA and 1.43 WHIP versus interleague opponents and a 2.28 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games. Finally, Detroit is a profitable 87-35 in its last 122 interleague home games, 35-16 in its last 51 versus N.L. East foes, 20-8 in its last 28 home tilts and 9-1 in its last ten games overall, including winning 8 straight versus .501 or greater opposition.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -3½ over Edmonton
Let’s assume for a second that the past two weeks did not happen. Let’s assume that the Eskies didn’t blow a 31-6 lead over Hamilton and then get badly outplayed by Winnipeg the following week in another defeat. Let’s assume that the Eskies defense didn’t allow 37 and 30 points respectively in those two losses. If those two weeks did not happen, what would the line be this week for Edmonton at Ottawa? Ottawa -3? Ottawa -3½? We trust you get the point. Edmonton gave up 31 unanswered second half points to the Ti-Cats while allowing a stiff like Jason Masoli to set a league record for completions. Last week they dropped a 30-23 decision that actually flattered themselves and not the visiting Blue Bombers. The Eskies defense has struggled to get off the field all season and they have given up more than 30 points in four of their five games this season including 45 to these Redblacks in Week 1. They are now priced like none of that has happened.
The market has frowned upon the Redblacks due to their awful showing as a 10½-point choice last week against the Argonauts. Toronto went into Ottawa with a rookie QB making his first start and pulled off the upset. Perhaps the Redblacks took Toronto too lightly. Perhaps Henry Burris had a little too much rust on his bones. Whatever the case may be, it does not matter, as we are not going to put heavy emphasis on one game when the Redblacks have outgained every other opponent this year by 148 yards, 208 yards, 105 yards and 176 yards, respectively. Even in their 30-29 loss in Saskatchewan with its third-string QB playing, Ottawa was not outgained. The Redblacks are deep and talented and they’ll shuffle their lineup if adjustments need to be made. Furthermore, Ottawa is winless at home and it would be unreasonable to expect that to last much longer.
Mike Reilly is as good as advertised but it’s very difficult to trade punches every single game because the defense can’t stop anyone. Despite the league’s best offense, the Eskimos have won just two of their first five games because said defense is so bad. The Eskimos rank eighth among the nine CFL teams in pass touchdowns allowed and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. The Eskies gave up 543 (!) total passing yards to Redblacks quarterbacks Henry Burris and Trevor Harris in the June 25 season opener and that’s when there was little film out on these stiffs. Normally, we hate to give away points to a team with an offense this good but our focus is on value and in that regard we’re suggesting that the Eskies should not be priced like their extremely poor defensive efforts have not occurred.
SPORTS WAGERS
D. Steele +175 over Court McGee
The featured bout of the fight night prelims is a battle between two welterweights trying to gain traction in the division. Both fighters come into Saturday's card alternating wins and losses over their past four with each coming off disappointing losses in their most recent appearance.
Dominique ' Non-stop action packed Dom T' Steele has certainly lived up to his drawn out, unnecessarily long nickname, in his UFC career. While only posting a 1-2 record over the past year, Steele has gotten better in each of his past two bouts following a debut TKO loss to Zak Cummings. It’s not easy stepping into the ring for the first time having to face a heavily favored fighter with a very impressive record and the nerves overcame Steele early in the first round of his debut. Steele would go on to KO Dong Hyun Kim in the third round of his second UFC fight, scoring an impressive four takedowns along the way, and establishing his impressive strength consistently on his way to victory. Perhaps his most impressive performance came in his last fight where he would be awarded a three round 29-28 unanimous decision loss to 13-1 Danny Roberts in April. Again, Steele was able to establish his strength and takedown ability throughout the fight, dominating round one with a near knockout and a couple of takedowns. Steele would secure six successful takedowns, but was out-struck 60-40, thus, he wasn't able to sway the judges in his favor. While this was a loss officially, it had to feel like a successful performance, earning fight of the night honors on a stacked PPV card. Steele is 28 years old, and should be continuing to round out his raw talent in his next few fights before entering his prime and potentially entering the top 10 in the welterweight division. He is one of the stronger fighters in the division, and continually searches for takedowns that can then be transitioned into a very impressive ground and pound. Steele has a reputation for being very reckless with his strength, but he has been improving his striking, and as he continues to gain experience, should be able to harness the physical advantages into impressive victories in the near future.
The 31 year old Court McGee has had some serious opportunities to move into the conversation in the welterweight division, and unfortunately for him, he hasn't been able to string together enough solid performances to gain enough notoriety to be ranked in the top 15. McGee owns a very impressive victory over Robert Whitaker in 2013, but has been unable to continue off of that momentum. There is evidence to suggest he has peaked, as he has only one win in the past three years, and that was over 0-3 (UFC) Marcio Alexandre. McGee was most recently knocked out by Santiago Ponzinibbio in April, a fight he was clearly much less powerful than his opponent. This knockout was the first suffered by McGee in his career, and it will be tough to gauge how he will react in the ring in his first fight since having his lights knocked out. McGee has been known as a very durable, well rounded fighter, with good stamina. Now that reputation of having a great chin is in question, and he is now matched up with a fighter very similar to his last opponent, the Ponz.
The fact that McGee is so heavily favored here is very interesting. His status as TUF champion in 2010, combined with a big name win over Robert Whitaker (who is now on a five fight win streak) is big in influencing the odds. Whitaker was 22 at the time of this bout, and fighting a 28 year Court McGee. Not taking anything away from Court's big win, but there has to be something said about right place, right time. There hasn't been much success since for McGee, and he will now face a fighter with more raw power than the fighter he was just KO'd by a few months ago.
There is a lot to be said about a professional fighting veteran suffering a knockout loss for the first time. They begin to think that maybe they are getting too long in the tooth to be putting their face in the pocket risking another demoralizing fate, and they become tentative, losing some of the edge that made them so successful for so many years. And while many may look at the TKO as a lucky strike by the Ponz, we will gladly back the power striker in a very favorable situation at a generous tag. Dominique Steele's 1-2 UFC record has him underpriced here, and he has an opportunity to get into the rankings with another impressive performance or two. We trust he will continue to get better in Salt Lake City.
Chris Camozzi +220 over Thales Leites
This is a bet for Chris Camozzi to win by decision and it’s available at most books. If that wager is not available to you, the bet is simply Camozzi to win.
Thales Leites (#12) has a bad habit of fighting his opponents' fight. He was outclassed his last time in the cage, a decision loss to Gegard Mousasi where he appeared to quit halfway through the contest. It was hard to watch his meltdown, as he refused to fight while forcing sloppy uninspired takedowns that had no chance to make an impact. Leites was content to take the loss and run out the clock. He has lost his last two fights and seems fine to duke it out with his opponents rather than use his strongest tool, his wrestling. Aside from his stubborn fight style, Leites has been plagued by conditioning issues throughout his career and that will not serve him well against the quick pace of this enemy.
Chris Camozzi's third stint in the UFC is going much better than his last two, as he heads into this one on a three fight win streak. Camozzi is an unranked brawler who's always moving, which is bad news for the lethargic Leites. Camozzi is capable of swarming his opponents with punches in bunches that also score with the judges, just like we saw in his last fight, a unanimous decision over Vitor Miranda. Camozzi will be looking to drag Leites into a brawl and if recent history has shown us anything, Thales is likely to oblige.
This contest features another matchup between a known ranked fighter and an unranked opponent, which is an angle we love to see play out in the octagon because an inflated tag is attached. The over/under in this fight is o2½ -208, which strongly suggests it’s going to the scorecards. Furthermore, the tag on Camozzi to win by KO, TKO or disqualification is 6-1, which suggests even stronger that it is going the distance. That would be Camozzi's best path to victory and we can take back a much better number by siding with him by decision. Considering Leites' recent form and mental state that's precisely how we’ll attack this one. Camozzi by decision is the bet.
Rony Jason +300 over D. Bermudez
This is a bet for Rony Jason to win inside the distance and it’s available at most books. If that wager is not available to you, the bet is simply for Jason to win.
Dennis Bermudez is a very dangerous fighter to back at high odds because of his suspect chin and susceptibility to submissions. He was knocked out for the first time two fights ago as a -260 favorite to Jeremy Stephens. It was something that fight fans should have seen coming considering Bermudez was rocked in his fights with Ricardo Lamas, Clay Guida and Matt Grice. Last time out, Bermudez won a close 29-28 decision as a -435 favorite against 38-year-old Tatsuya Kawajiri. It was a fight that was way too close considering the lopsided odds. Bermudez has been a risky bet for a while now. Prior to his KO against Stephens, he was submitted by Lamas as a near 2-1 choice. Bermudez has proven far too risky at this point and regularly overrated and overpriced to consider as a sure thing. He’s not. In fact, we’re suggesting that he’s never been more beatable.
Brazilian Rony Jason enters the cage unranked but he's a dangerous striker with 'one punch' knockout power. Jason will also have a four-inch reach advantage in this one. If the fight moves to the mat, Jason is very capable of getting a submission. Jason can be lethal in a scramble and so Bermudez will have to be weary of his guard if he decides to take him down. This is a great matchup for Jason to get a signature win in devastating fashion.
Bermudez, an American is one of the most recognizable fighters at 145 pounds and he comes into this fight ranked #8 in the UFC's featherweight division. Those rankings are a point of contention among hardcore fans because the formula that goes into them is a load of crap but they help casual fans and bettors know who's who on fight night. We love the rankings, as they provide us with a ton of value when a dangerous unranked fighter steps into the cage against a more established ‘name' opponent and that's what we have here in Rony Jason. He can finish this fight in more ways than one and if he's going to win, it's not likely going to the scorecards. Jason to finish him is our call.