Power Sports
Miami vs. Colorado
Pick: Over
It should be no secret as to what ballpark once again features, on average, the highest scoring games in either league. That would of course be Coors Field in Colorado where games see an average of 12.5 rpg scored. Note that only three other parks (Progressive Field in Cleveland, Fenway in Boston and Globe Life Park in Arlington) see at least 10.0 rpg scored on average. None are higher than 10.7 rpg.
So, by Coors' own lofty standards, last night's 5-3 game (won by the Marlins) here was relatively low-scoring. Tonight, I'd look for more runs to be put on the board. Miami's Andrew Cashner comes in w/ a 2.55 ERA and 0.792 WHIP his L3 starts, but all three went Over the total anyway and the likelihood of him maintaining those moving forward is rather slim. I say that because he is still winless on the road (eight tries) where his ERA/WHIP are 6.23/1.50 respectively.
Meanwhile, as you might expect, the Rockies' Chad Bettis has predictably struggled w/ the thin air of his home park, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.510 WHIP here in nine starts.
Don Best Consensus
San Francisco at Washington
Pick: Washington
Strasberg is 15-1 and the Nationals are 18-2 when he starts. Giants starter Cain has a 5.53 ERA on the season and a 6.39 ERA over his past three starts. SF are 2-10 in their last 12 road games.
Brandon Lee
Indians -1½ +110
Cleveland is worth a look on the run line in Saturday's afternoon clash with the Yankees. The Indians will send out Corey Kluber, who has been straight dealing of late with a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Kluber also owns a strong 2.16 ERA in 4 career starts against New York. The Yankees will counter with C.C. Sabathia, who has really fallen on hard times after a surprisingly strong start to the year. Sabathia just gave up 5 runs against the Mets in his last outing and has allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. He's also just 1-5 with a 4.82 ERA in 8 home starts this season. He last faced the Indians on 7/9 and was rocked for 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in just 5 2/3 innings. Cleveland is just 1-4 in their last 5, but it's not from a lack of runs. They have scored 5 or more in 8 straight games.
Alex Smart
Angels vs. Mariners
Play:Mariners +100
The Halos enter this game having lost 6 straight road games vs a side with a winning record like Seattle and are a lowly 7-24 in their L/31 vs a pitcher like Walker with a 1.15 ERA or less. Meanwhile, the Mariners have won 8 of their L/11 vs a team with a below .500 road record like the Angels and get the nod on value line in this spot.,
Matt Josephs
Phillies vs. Padres
Play: Phillies -102
Jake Thompson makes his major league debut for the Phillies on Saturday night. He went 11-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 21 triple-A starts striking out 87 while walking only 37. The righty isn't phased by road games sporting a 1.88 ERA in 11 contests away from Lehigh Valley. Entering Friday night, San Diego was hitting .231 against right-handed starters and have been inconsistent offensively. The Phillies bullpen is alright despite a losing record on the road. Paul Clemens is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in four starts this season. The righty has allowed eight HRs in 19.3 innings of work and has not gone deep in a single ballgame. The Phillies offense is actually perking up a bit averaging over four runs per game on the road. The Padres bullpen is nothing special. I really don't like taking Philly on the road, but I think it's a good spot.
Jimmy Boyd
Rays -135
Tampa Bay is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Twins. The Rays will send out Chris Archer, who is just 5-15 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.329 WHIP in 23 starts, but he's been much better of late. Archer owns a sizzling 2.66 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in his last 3 starts and I look for him to continue to dominate down the stretch.
The Twins will counter here with Jose Berrios, who owns an ugly 8.57 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 5 starts. He's also got an even worse 10.03 ERA in his last 3 starts. Twins are just 5-18 in their last 23 after playing 4 or more consecutive games on the road, 2-12 in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing record and 9-20 in the last 29 meetings in the series.
Scott Rickenbach
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7½
Crazy game in Seattle yesterday as it went over the posted total in the first inning with 9 runs scored in that very first frame. The rest of the game saw just 1 run scored and I except that "rest of the game trend" to continue right into Saturday. The pitching match-up today is conducive to an under as the Mariners will have Taijuan Walker on the mound and the Angels will have a red-hot Tyler Skaggs on the bump. The under is 10-5 in Walker's starts this season and he has compiled a 2.75 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in his home starts this year. As for the Angels Skaggs, the southpaw has given up no earned runs on just 7 hits while striking out 13 in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his two starts. I expect the under to improve to 12-6 in the Mariners Saturday games this season. Coincidentally, the Angels have also trended under in Saturday games this year with a 10-5 mark on the season.
Jason Sharpe
New York at Detroit
Play: Detroit
It's always a smart idea to lean towards betting on the American League team when they are at home in these interleague matchups as A.L. teams are built more for the use of the DH. The Detroit Tigers go with starter Mike Pelfrey in this one. Pelfrey is a guy that the betting markets don't like very much as he allows a ton of base runners per game overall. The key with Pelfrey, though, is he's throwing the ball much better of late and comes in off his best outing of the season his last time out as he posted a shutout against the Houston Astros in his 5 innings of work. The Mets counter here with off-and-on-again starter Logan Verrett in this one. Verrett has an ERA over 6.00 in his last 8 starts this year and he's facing a solid Detroit Tigers lineup that should have slugger JD Martinez back from injury here. The Tigers offense is also hitting around 30 points higher as a team this year than the Mets offense. It all adds up here to what should be a Tigers win in this one.
Bob Balfe
Reds +125
The Pirates have been struggling and failing to hit the ball against very weak teams. Last night they got the close victory despite having the clear pitching advantage. Bailey has been better than Nova this year and tonight I believe the Pirates will be limited with their offense yet again.
Rocketman
Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -135
The Minnesota Twins travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays on Saturday night. Minnesota is 44-65 SU overall this year while Tampa Bay comes in with a 44-64 SU overall record on the season. Jose Berrios has an 8.57 ERA overall this year, a 9.00 ERA on the road this season and a 10.03 ERA his last 3 starts. Chris Archer is only 1-8 at home but has a 3.03 ERA and he is 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA his last 3 starts. Appears Berrios has gotten run support this year while Archer has not. Archer is 4-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his 5 career starts vs Minnesota. Tampa Bay should give Archer the necessary run support here today. Minnesota is allowing 5.6 runs per game at night this year. Tampa Bay is allowing only 2.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ New York
Pick: New York +153
New York is on an 8-3 run at home and the Indians are 15-37 in the last 52 meetings at Yankee Stadium. Cleveland has picked the wrong time to slump, losing four of five -- mostly at home. Now they are on a five-game road trip off a 13-7 defeat to the Yankees yesterday. New York has Cleveland's number, with a 4-1 record against the Tribe in 2016 and an average of 7.6 runs in those encounters. Starlin Castro had a grand slam and Jacoby Ellsbury led a 16-hit attack with four hits as New York rolled Friday. Ellsbury is 10-for-22 with five runs scored in five games this month, while Mark Teixeira is 5-for-11 with three extra-base hits and six walks during a four-game hitting streak. New York has won three of five scoring 30 runs in those five contests. The Yankees are 11-5 against a team with a winning record, plus 32-13 when C.C. Sabathia is at home against a team with a winning record, so grab the home dog, and play the NY Yankees.
Neil The Greek
Orioles at White Sox
Play: Orioles -130
Chris Tillman has been awesome for the Orioles all season long. His team is an awesome 19-4 when he starts this year. Carlos Rodon has been the opposite of that, taking his team to a 5-12 record. He is only 1-4 at home this year, while Tillman is 6-2 on the road. Baltimore needs to continue winning this year to keep Toronto in their sights, they will on Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +131 over TAMPA BAY
The Twinkies are hitting everyone and everything in sight. They took the opener of this series last night by defeating the red-hot Blake Snell. Prior, Minnesota went into Cleveland and defeated Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer before losing the finale. They’ll face Chris Archer here. Archer had such a magnificent first half of 2015 that many failed to notice that his skills and results nose-dived in the second half, and then overvalued him coming into 2016. However, even the reduced skills he has displayed over the past 12 months are better than the 4.50ish ERA he has posted but not by much. Archer continues to struggle with his control and that’s difficult to overcome when you are a two-pitch pitcher. When Archer’s wicked slider is missing the plate, he is then forced to come in with fastballs and hitters are sitting dead red on it. That’s been his trouble for a full 12 months now, which at this point is a pattern and not a slump.
Jose Berrios, whose 175 strikeouts led the minors in 2015, struggled in his first four starts after making his MLB debut on April 27. However, Berrios has pitched well since his demotion to Rochester (AAA) on May 17, posting an 8-5 record with 91 strikeouts (86 IP) and a 2.72 ERA. More importantly, Berrios wasn't even that bad when he was here but a very unlcuky 56% strand rate did him in. In his first start back last week since being recalled, Berrios went six strong in Cleveland without walking a single batter. His fastball topped out at 97. His other pitches consist of a very good breaking ball and above average change-up. He keeps hitters off-balance with his deceptive change-up which plays up due to his ability to repeat his athletic delivery and consistent arm slot. Berrios sequences his offerings very well and misses many bats as a result. His control has continued to improve through the years and his command is advanced for his age. Berrios has high impact potential. His second taste of the majors went much better than his first and he’ll now face one of the meekest lineups in baseball.
L.A. Angels -115 over SEATTLE
Seattle scored six runs in the first inning last night against “Freak Show” but they failed to score another run the entire night. Things get a whole lot tougher here for the Mariners against Tyler Skaggs. All Skaggs' has done is strike out 13 batters in 12 frames in his first two starts of the year. He did not allow a run either against Boston or Kansas City. Skaggs takes a step down in class here when he faces a team that ranks 25th in OPS (.644) over the last 28 days. Skaggs is a premium arm with nothing but upside and has not reached his potential yet. It’s a small sample size but the kid looks very confident out there, which is half the battle. He’s underpriced here.
Taijuan Walker toes the rubber for the first time since July 5th and faces an Angels’ team that's 7th in OPS (.756) on the road and owns a .760 OPS over the last 14 days. We’re always weary of starters coming off the DL for their first game back, not only because they can be less aggressive but also because they are almost always on a strict pitch-count. We would be very surprised to see Walker throw more than 80 pitches in this one. Aside from that, the Mariners have trouble winning when Walker starts. He has just four wins in 16 starts this year and he’s been serving up jacks at an alarming pace with 18 already in just 86 innings. On his best day, Walker rarely works past the fifth inning because he throws so many pitches per AB. The Mariners get the inferior rating in every category for this one and so we’ll play it accordingly
DETROIT -1½ +129 over N.Y. Mets
What sticks out to us the most about this game is the total of 9½. That’s a big number in a game that involves the anemic offense of the N.Y. Mets. Although it could happen, one can never count on the Mets to put up a crooked number. That leaves the Tigers offense to put up a crooked number, who can surely be counted on to do so against Logan Verrett.
Verrett is a reliever turned starter, turned reliever, turned starter, turned reliever about 50 times over. He has appeared in 28 games this season with 18 of those coming in relief. He’s not suited for relief because of his inability to miss bats and he’s not well-suited to start because he’s just not good enough. Verrett has a brutal BB/K split of 35/53 in 79 innings. He has a BB/K split of 13/19 over his last 30 frames. He also has a 1.41 WHIP this year, which is well above our threshold of acceptability. Verrett has a weak swing and miss rate. In his last start, he was averaging 88 MPH on the gun and had a swing and miss rate of 4%. The Tigers are the hottest team in baseball and have a great chance to feast on this swingman.
Matt Boyd owns a 2.63 ERA in his four starts at home thus far, and has accrued 6 K’s or more in three of the last four outings overall. He posted great skills in July, and will look to get August started on the right foot against a Mets team that is 19th in OPS (.718) in away games this season and even worse over the past month. Boyd has 23 K’s over his past 20 innings with only four walks issued. Boyd excelled across two minor-league levels previously and it now looks like he’s ready to thrive at this level too.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -1.5 -106
The Washington Nationals have a massive edge on the mound today with Stephen Strasburg over Matt Cain. I expect them to win by multiple runs tonight as they get after Cain in this one while Strasburg shuts down the Giants.
Strasburg is 15-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco as well. He'll be trying to lead the Nationals to their 5th straight victory tonight.
Cain has really struggled all season. He is 3-6 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 14 starts this year, 0-3 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in five road starts, and 2-1 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in his last three outings.
Strasburg is 16-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Nationals are winning by 4.1 runs per game in this spot. Strasburg is 15-0 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more over the last two seasons. Washington is winning by 5.0 runs per game in this spot.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +125
Danny Duffy continues to be undervalued as a home underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays today. Duffy has gone 7-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 15 starts this season with 105 K's in 90 2/3 innings. Duffy has won six straight decisions and leads the American League with 92 strikeouts since June 1, averaging 10.62 per nine innings in that span. Kansas City is 15-4 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. Duffy is 15-2 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season in his career. The Royals are 20-6 in Duffy's last 26 home starts, and 7-0 in his last 7 starts overall.