Free Picks for Saturday, July 15th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Ben Burns
BC vs. Hamilton
Play: Under 51
The Lions (2-1) look solid on both sides of the ball, offensively led by QB Jonathan Jennings, who so far has 853 yards, two TD’s and one INT. BC though has been stout defensively, allowing an average of just 20.3 points on 367.7 yards. Hamilton will be desperate here as it’s 0-2 to open the season (this is the Ti-Cats first home game.) QB Zach Collaros has 431 yards, one TD and one INT. Clearly Hamilton will be focusing on the defensive side of the ball as that’s been the weak point so far, allowing 34.5 points on average. But with their backs against the wall and with the first one on home soil, I think the stage is set for the Tigercats to put forth their best effort yet. It appears as if points could be at a premium in this one, consider the under.
Art Aronson
Lions vs. Tigercats
Play: Tigercats +3
Our CFL “GAME OF THE YEAR” was against Hamilton in Saskatchewan last weekend, but we think the winless Ti-Cats will finally punch one in the win column at home. And like our big play on the Roughriders last week, this selection is primarily “situationally based.” BC is 2-1 overall, including 2-0 on the road (as well as 2-0 ATS away from friendly confines.) Hamilton is 0-2 SU/ATS, losing in Week 1 in Toronto, before having a bye and then falling last week in Saskatchewan. The Ti-Cats play their first home game tonight though and we look for the team to risk life and limb to “get off the schneid.” While an outright win is obviously not out of the question, we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Brandon Lee
Rays vs. Angels
Play:Rays +112
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as an underdog against the Angels on Saturday. The Rays will send out Alex Cobb, who is starting to look more and more like the top level starter he was in the past. Cobb posted a 2.45 ERA and sensational 0.591 WHIP over his final 3 starts leading up to the All-Star break. I fully expect him to keep it rolling and put together a great 2nd half. I'll certainly take my chances with Cobb and the Rays against J.C. Ramirez of the Angels, who is 0-4 with a 5.21 ERA in 8 home starts and wasn't throwing well going into the break with a 4.86 ERA in his final 3 starts.
Stephen Nover
Minnesota vs. Houston
Play: Minnesota +147
I'd rather go shark diving without a cage than play against the Houston Astros this season.
But sometimes you just have to step out of your element. This is one of those rare times when the Astros should be faded - especially at this nice underdog price - in a pitching matchup of Ervin Santana versus Joe Musgrove.
Maybe the 34-year-old Santana is due for some regression being 10-6 with a 2.99 ERA. He probably is. But facts are facts and they show Santana to be 6-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season. He's also 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA in five career appearances against Houston.
The Twins have the second-fewest road losses in the majors. Minnesota has dropped seven of its past nine away games, though. They are 0-4 versus the Astros this year. The Twins were swept at home by the Astros in embarrassing fashion at the end of May and lost 10-5 in the opening game of this series last night.
Minnesota is highly motivated to defeat the Astros at least once. This is the Twins' best chance. They were 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position Friday night. So they had opportunities. Now they get Musgrove. He's the weak link in the Astros rotation with a 4-7 mark and 6.04 ERA. Musgrove isn't likely to stay in Houston's starting rotation with Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh set to return.
The right-handed Musgrove is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts giving up 18 runs - including six homers - in his last 15 innings during this three-game span. Musgrove is 2-6 with a 5.40 ERA in nine home starts this season.
The Twins are 20-6 the past 26 times they've gone against a righty starter on the road. Minnesota also could get a boost with the expected return from the DL of Joe Mauer.
While the Twins can't match the Astros' power, they are the better fielding team (ranking only behind Kansas City in the American League for fewest errors) and have the vastly superior pitcher going backed by All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler.
Scott Rickenbach
Phillies vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½
Yesterday's game got crazy early and flew over the total but, for both of these teams, that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm of late. That said, I look for a low-scoring match-up Saturday evening as two pitchers in strong current form are squaring off. The Phillies Aaron Nola has allowed only 5 earned runs on just 17 hits in the 29 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The Brewers Jimmy Nelson has been piling up the strikeouts with 74 K's in his last 59 and 2/3 innings of work. There has been just 1 over in his last 7 home starts! Nelson has allowed 1 earned run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts at home. Yesterday's over was the first one the Phillies have had since the 1st day of the month! The under also was on a strong 5-2 run in Brewers games before yesterday's match-up surprisingly went nuts early. Philadelphia is 25-14 to the under in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season and I look for that trend to resume with another winner here!
Mike Lundin
Rangers vs. Royals
Play: Under 9
Each of the last seven and nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the Texas Rangers and the Kansas City Royals have gone under the total, last night's 5-3 Texas victory included. We should see another low-scoring encounter Saturday night.
Left-hander Danny Duffy (5-5, 3.76 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Royals. He is 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA in five career starts against the Rangers and pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings against Texas on April 20. The 28 year old has posted a 2.76 ERA in five home starts on the season and under is 6-2 in Duffy's last eight starts overall.
The Rangers turn to another southpaw in Cole Hamels (4-0, 3.51 ERA) who is 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA in four career against the Royals, 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA since joining the Rangers. He tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Angels his last time out.
Neither the Royals (.250) or the Rangers (.228) are hitting southpaws very well. Let's go with the under.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -125
Edges - Pirates: Taillon 3-0 with 0.91 ERA last three team starts… Cardinals: Lynn 1-5 last 6 team starts here; and 1-5 last 6 away team starts during July… With the Cardinals 25-38 this season against all teams outside the NL Central division, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
ASA
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Under 9½
General trending has definitely favored the under immediately after the mid-summer break for MLB. In the first 3-games of the series following the All-Star break, "under" bettors have been rewarded at the ticket windows much more than the "over" players. This can be attributed to a couple different factors including, but not limited to, rested pitching arms and the lack of timing by hitters. In the past three years if you simple bet "under" on all the games played Friday through Sunday following the break you would have cashed 62% of your wagers (77-47 Under since 2014). In 2016, the "unders" immediately following the All Star Break were especially good with a 30-12 record or 71%. With all the above "general" support for the under we also certainly have some "specific" support favoring a pitchers duel in this one. The Braves start Mike Foltynewicz and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 12 of his 16 starts this season. The Diamondbacks will have Patrick Corbin toeing the rubber in this one and he has given up just 3 earned runs or less in each of his last six starts! Arizona has a .387 slugging percentage in road games this season and that ranks them 25th in the majors and Atlanta's .402 slugging percentage in home games this season also ranks them 25th in the majors. In other words, don't look for much offense in this one as both pitchers have also been piling up strikeouts in their recent outings.
Scott Spreitzer
San Francisco at San Diego
Play: San Diego +142
Chacin has been as good as it gets for the Friars, especially at home where he's allowed just 9 earned runs and 39 base runners in his last 6 starts, spanning 38 1/3 IP. His team is 4-2 in those outings. Tonight, they'll face Mad Bum, making his return from the D-L in his first ML start since his April accident. Bumgarner has mixed results at PETCO, this has not been his favorite mound. In fact, the Padres are 5-2 in their last seven home games against him. They're also on a 12-5 run at home against SFO, despite coming up a run short last night. The Giants enter on a 4-9 slide in Bumgarner's last 13 road starts and they've lost all four of his outings this season.
Jack Jones
Minnesota vs. Houston
Play: Minnesota +147
We're getting the better starting pitcher at a big underdog price today in this matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros. You're not getting any discounts backing the Astros at this stage of the game after their 61-29 start, and it would be hard to make money on them the rest of the way as a result.
Ervin Santana has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He has gone 10-6 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in eight road starts. Santana has never lost to the Astros, going 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in five career starts against them.
Joe Musgrove is clearly the weak link in the Astros' rotation. He has gone 4-7 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 10.79 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in his last three starts. The Twins should feast on him tonight.
The Twins have been one of the most profitable road teams in baseball, going 25-16 (+15.2 units) on the highway this season. The Twins are 20-6 in their last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Astros are 2-7 in Musgrove's last nine home starts.
John Martin
San Francisco at San Diego
Play: San Diego +144
The San Diego Padres have gone a respectable 22-23 at home this season and have made backers some nice profits because they are consistently dogs. The San Francisco Giants are just 18-32 on the road this season. Madison Bumgarner will be making his much-anticipated return from the disabled list tonight, and he's likely going to be on a pitch count and won't be as effective as normal. Jhoulys Chacin has been lights out at home with a 1.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over nine starts. He is also 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. Chacin is 7-6 with a 3.36 ERA in 16 starts against the Giants. The Padres are 2-0 in Chacin's two starts against the Giants in 2017 as he has allowed only 3 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. The Giants are 22-46 in their last 68 games following a win.
Dave Price
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Braves -108
The Key: The Braves are a perfect 6-0 in Mike Foltynewicz's last 6 starts. He has been lights out of late outside of a poor start at Washington where he allowed 8 runs, but the Braves actually found a way to win that game. In his other 6 starts, he has gone 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA while allowing only 6 earned runs in 39 innings. Pat Corbin has been rocked on the road this season to the tune of a 1-6 record with a 7.82 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 7 starts on the highway. The Braves are 7-1 in Foltynewicz's 8 starts this season with a total set of 9 to 9.5. The Diamondbacks are 1-11 in Corbin's last 12 road starts. The Braves are 5-0 in Foltynewicz's last 5 home starts.
Wesley Scott
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Braves -102
The Arizona Diamondbacks (53-37 Overall, 20-22 Away) face the Atlanta Braves (43-45 Overall, 21-22 Home) in game two of three. Atlanta took the first game 4-3.
Arizona looked like they were going to get a win, until the Braves scored two runs in the bottom of the eight inning, giving them the win. The Braves have scored four runs on nine hits.
Today, the Braves will turn to Michael Foltynewicz (7-5 Overall, 3.77 ERA). Foltynewicz has been good in his last six starts. He has earned four wins and six team wins in those outings.
Foltynewicz has yet to face the Diamondbacks this season, but has a 0-1 record with a 6.17 ERA in four career starts against Arizona.
Arizona had ten hits last night, but still took the 4-3 loss. In order to rebound from lasts night, the Diamondbacks look to Patrick Corbin (6-9, 4.71 ERA) for a quality start. Corbin has not gotten a win since June 16th at Philadelphia, 5-4.
Corbin has not pitched against Atlanta this season, but is 3-0 in three relief outings against them.
Right hand batters are averaging .314 with 13 home runs against Corbin, while left hand hitters are averaging .225 with three homers.
Corbin is 1-6 with a 7.57 ERA on the road this season.
Arizona is 3-8 over their last 11 games. Take the Braves at home in this game.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals vs. Reds
Play: Under 9
I really like the value here with this high total in Saturday's matchup between the Reds and Nationals. I'm not one to take a ton of unders at Great American Ball Park, but today's pitching matchup has the makings of a low-scoring game.
Washington will send out their ace and reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, who hasn't disappointed in 2017, going 10-5 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in 18 starts. What's impressive is Scherzer has been at his best on the road, where he's 7-2 with a 1.47 ERA in 10 starts. Cincinnati's offense has been struggling of late and were just shutout by Gio Gonzalez at home last night.
Key here is I have confidence in Reds' starter Luis Castillo to keep the Nationals' high-powered offense in check. Castillo has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of his first 4 big league starts, the only exceptions coming at Coors Field, where he gave up 4 runs. Last time out he pitched at hitter-friendly Chase Field and held the Diamondbacks to a mere 3 hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings. A good sign of things to come with Castillo is that he's got 16 strikeouts to just 2 walks in his last 2 starts (12 1/3 innings).