Doc's Sports
Phillies vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -163
Milwaukee and Philadelphia find themselves on opposite ends as they start the second half of their seasons. The Brewers own a 5.5 game lead over the Cardinals and Cubs and are in first place in the National League West while the Phillies have the worst record in the National League and sit in last place in the NL East. Jimmy Nelson has been a large part of Milwaukee's success this season and he is 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA at home this season. He has won his last three starts allowing 5 earned runs over 19 innings with the Brewers outscoring their opponents 22-8 over those contests. Aaron Nola has the same record and essentially the same ERA whether he pitches at home or away and has been very consistent for the Phillies this season but I think he will have some trouble with the Brewers in this matchup. I like Nelson to lead Milwaukee to a victory here.
Jesse Schule
Mariners vs. White Sox
Play: Mariners -140
The Mariners cruised to a 4-2 win in Game 1 at Chicago last night, and they send ace Felix Hernandez to the mound in Game 2. Hernandez (4-3. 4.44 ERA) allowed just a pair of hits, striking out eight in six scoreless innings in a win over Oakland his last time out. He's pitched well since returning from injury, and should have won three of his four starts since coming off the DL. The bullpen cost him a win in a home loss to the Phillies at the end of June. He's had success at US Cellular Field, with a record of 1-0 and a 1.76 ERA in two starts there since 2014. The White Sox hand the ball to Derek Holland, who has been roughed up pretty good lately. The left-hander was tagged for seven runs on eight hits and two walks over four innings in a loss at Colorado his last time out. His last home start wasn't much better, surrendering five runs on five hits and a pair of walks over 5 1/3 innings in a 10-4 loss to Texas. He's now given up five or more runs in five of his last seven starts. The Mariners are batting .289 with seven home runs and 22 RBIs over a combined 171 at bats versus Holland. Robinson Cano is hitting .333 a pair of home runs and nine RBIs in 46 career at bats versus the southpaw.
Jim Feist
Rockies at Mets
Pick: Mets
Colorado is a long way from home, on a 5-13 run. The Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Tyler Chatwood (4.42 ERA, 6-10) walks too many batters, 57 in 106 innings. On the road he's walked 30 in 62 innings. The NY Mets are 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Seth Lugo is on the hill with the team 10-2 when he starts. And the Rockies are 3-11 in the last 14 meetings in New York.
Joe Williams
Rangers at Royals
Play: Rangers
The Rangers have won 14 of their past 17 meetings with the Royals, and they're 5-2 in their past seven trips to Kauffman Stadium. In addition, the Royals are just 1-4 in Danny Duffy's past five assignments against the Rangers. The Rangers turn to Cole Hamels, looking to stay hot. They're 4-1 over their past five outings, and 39-14 in Hamels' past 53 outings.
Larry Ness
Seattle at Chicago
Pick: Seattle -140
The Seattle Mariners know that catching the Astros is no more than a pipe dream (Mariners sit 17 1/2 games back of Houston entering Saturday's play) but they are hopeful of working their way up the AL wild-card standings after posting a 4-2 victory in the first of a three-game series at Chicago against the White Sox last night. Seattle had lost 10 of 14 games prior to the All-Star break but the team's pitching staff was sharp last night in striking out 15 White Sox batters. Chicago has now dropped five of six and at 38-50, owns the AL's worst record.
Felix Hernandez (4-3, 4.44 ERA) will get the nod for Seattle and Mike Pelfrey (3-7 & 4.83 ERA) for Chicago. "King Felix" struck out eight while allowing two hits over six scoreless innings of a 4-0 victory over Oakland last Sunday, his best effort since returning from a calf injury back on June 23. It was quite an improvement after he compiled a 5.50 ERA over his three previous outings. Hernandez is 5-6 with a 3.80 ERA in 18 career starts against the White Sox (team is 9-9). The White Sox pushed Derek Holland's scheduled start back to Sunday, so it's the 33-year-old Pelfrey getting the nod. He has not pitched well in 2017 and is 1-1 with a 3.70 ERA in four career starts against Seattle (teams are 2-2).
Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight home appearances (seven starts / team is 3-4) this season. He did defeat the Mariners on May 20, when he allowed one run and four hits over six innings. The Mariners are one of nine teams that are part of a cluster for the two wild-card berths (currently find themselves three games back of the playoff 'cut line') and I'll back "King Felix" in this one over a struggling Pelfrey.
Will Rogers
Chicago at Baltimore
Pick: Chicago -138
The set-up: The Cubs hit five HRs and took an 8-0 lead last night in Baltimore but were barely able to hold on in edging the Orioles 9-8. The victory gets the Cubs within one game of .500 but last year's World Series champs still trail the brewers by 5 1/2 games in the NL West and also sit 6 1/2 games back of the Rockies for the NL's final wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Orioles fell 8 1/2 games back of Boston in the AL East and into a tie with Toronto for last place in the AL East at 42-47. In a time "long ago," the Orioles were 22-10 and atop the division but that was before the Orioles lost 37 of their next 57 games!
The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (8-7 & 4.35 ERA) starts for the Cubs and Wade Miley (4-7 & 4.97 ERA) for the Orioles. Arrieta never lived up to the hype in Baltimore, going 20-25 with a 5.46 ERA from 2010-13 before being dealt to the Cubs, where he won the Cy Young in 2015 and helped the Cubs end a 108-year drought with last year's World Series win. "There's still several guys over there who I played with who I want to get out," Arrieta told reporters ahead of his start on Saturday. "It's going to be neat to pitch here against those guys and guys I've played with for a long time and guys I've watched from afar. It's going to be enjoyable. I'm looking forward to it." Talking about not living up to expectations, Arietta is one of a number of Cubs who have not met expectations in the first half of 2017. He posted just two quality starts in his last six outings before the All-Star break and took the loss last Saturday, giving up four runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh. Arrieta has surrendered 14 HRs in 18 starts (Cubs are 9-9) after giving up just 16 all of last season (in 31 starts & 197 1/3 IP) and 10 (in 33 starts & 229 IP) in his Cy Young Award campaign in 2015. Miley won his last start before the break, holding Minnesota to one run over 5 2/3 innings but he had gone 1-4 with an 11.69 ERA in his previous six outings (Baltimore was 2-4). He hasn’t made it through six innings in his last seven starts dating back to June 1. Miley is 4-1 with a 3.46 ERA in six starts against the Cubs (teams are 5-1).
The pick: Miley does own an excellent career record against the Cubs but the Orioles are in a funk and I'll back the defending champs here, who can climb back to .500.
Mike Anthony
New York vs. Boston
Play: Under 8.5
Don't expect the scoreboard operators to be hanging too many crooked digits on the Fenway Park scoreboard this Saturday late-afternoon as Luis Severino and Chris Sale trot to the hill to do their thing. Sale is 6-1 at home this season with a 2.40 ERA, with 5 of his 8 Fenway starts having played Under the total. This will be the southpaws second start this season versus New York, with the first resulting in a 3-0 loss to the Yankees - an Under by the way - back on April 27th. Last night's game saw a pair of Boston runs in the 9th to send it just Over the total, but 5 6 of the past 8 series meetings between the rivals have still held Under the total.
Ray Monohan
Rays vs. Angels
Play:Rays +112
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Los Angeles Angels face off on Saturday night, and the visitors have a ton of value in this one. On the mound for the Angels is JC Ramirez who has been quite inconsistant for the Angels this year. In two of his last three starts he has given up at least four runs. The Rays seem to be getting hot right now, and they should be able to take advantage of Ramirez and his struggles.
On the mound for the Rays is Alex Cobb who has pitched well as of late, In five of his last six games he has given up two runs or less and that has resulted in three wins for the Rays. Some trends to note. Rays are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings in Los Angeles.
Larry Wallace
Rangers vs. Royals
Play:Rangers +113
Hamels is 4-0 this year with a 3.51 ERA. Hamels is 3-1 in his career against the Royals. Duffy this year is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA. In his last 3 start he is 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games overall.
Bob Balfe
Braves -110
Arizona has been struggling to find offense their last few games and their starting pitcher has been brutal on the road this year which is never a good 1-2 combo. Mike Foltynewicz has been locked as of late and should continue that streak today at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. METS -109 over Colorado
Seth Lugo is not the target here. Lugo has an elite groundball rate but he’s a complete wildcard otherwise with as much of a chance of getting whacked as he has of throwing a decent game. The bet here is all about playing the Mets at a reduced price over the Rockies. The market perception is that the Rocks are a legit contender while the Mets are not but we see it the other way around. In other words, the Mets are being sold very short here.
Within a season, injury issues can be permanent, and can derail a team more reliably than mere under-performance. When they flare up in the first half, they can easily carry into the second. In the Mets’ case, they’re compounded by the aggregate age of the Mets’ roster. That said, there’s a wealth of talent here. They might be too far out to consider a playoff berth but they could win anywhere from 70 to 85 games. Around Michael Conforto, T.J. Rivera, Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets are capable of a big run and opened the second half with 14 runs scored last night. We can easily see that carrying over here against Tyler Chatwood and the 19 walks he’s issued against the 18 K’s he’s posted over his last 22 frames. Tyler Chatwood’s xERA since the beginning of June is 6.04.
We've seen the Rockies survive two dud free agent signings because one of them got hurt (making room for the triumphant return of Mark Reynolds) and one of them never mattered. They've thrived so far on the strength of their young pitchers but they're asking those guys to pitch without getting extra days of rest more often than just about any team in baseball. More than variance, their first-half success feels like a credit card spending spree, and now that the bill is coming due, the Rocks seem to be a bit short. The Colorado Rockies overachieved in a big way in the first half while the Mets underachieved and we now get a great opportunity to cash in on it.
N.Y. Yankees +155 over BOSTON
Chris Sale needs no introductions here. Chris Sale is everything the Red Sox could have hoped for, and more. Craig Kimbrel is, too. It’s an unusual spot this team is in. They’ve given up huge amounts of young talent in recent deals in the name of winning now. They’re contenders and big spenders. Yet, they’re flat-out bad at two positions, and uninspiring at another. They don’t hit jacks either, which bodes well for New York’s chances because the Red Sox are likely going to have a helluva time stringing hits together and scoring on Luis Severino. In that regard, one has to like the Yanks chances of getting a hold of one better than Boston’s chances simply because the Yanks are fifth in HR’s while the Red Sox are 26th.
Luis Severino is damn close to being Chris Sale’s equal but the line does not come close to reflecting that. Sale has an xERA of 2.75 while Severino’s xERA is 3.06. Sale has 178 K’s in 128 frames while Severino has 124 K’s in 107 innings. Sale has a 17% swing and miss rate while Severino’s swing and miss rate is 14%. Sale strikes out more and walks less but Severino has an elite strikeout rate too and elite command with just 27 walks issued in 107 frames. Where it gets interesting is in each starter’s groundball rate. In that regard, Sale’s groundball rate is 36% compared to Severino’s elite 52% rate. Sale’s fly-ball rate of 42% is much higher than Severino’s fly-ball rate of 29%. We’re merely pointing out again that Sale’s fly-ball rate makes him more prone to giving up jacks than Severino. We’re also pointing out that the Yanks have more players with the ability to go deep. In what figures to be a low a scoring game, we’ll gladly take our chances on an elite pitcher like Severino taking back a price like this with all that power behind him.
PITTSBURGH -1½ +167 over St. Louis
Jameson Taillon will be throwing a lot of two-seamers when he takes the mound tonight at PNC Park. It’s become his main course of attack. According to the 25-year-old right-hander, 70% of his fastballs are now twos and that’s the pitch he prefers to go with “in any action count.” It fits his team’s recent philosophy. Pittsburgh pitchers have been baseball’s best ground-ball hunters, putting up MLB’s highest ground-ball rate over the past six seasons. With a modus operandi of down, down, down, they’ve lived at the bottom of the strike zone with almost religious fervor but you will see a bit of a change in that philosophy. The Bucs aren’t suddenly all about up, up, up, but kneecaps and ankles are no longer exclusive territory. Per pitching Coach Ray Searage, increased elevation is in the offing.
Missing upstairs and locating upstairs are two different things and match-ups are always in play. Not all hitters have the same strengths and weaknesses and it’s incumbent that a hurler doesn’t stray too far from his comfort zone. Taillon is a good example and Pirates coach Ray Searage says that he’s the guy to lead them. Searage says Taillon is that good. “Part of it is sequencing to change the hitter’s eye level, but it also has to be individualized,” said Searage. “There are guys who are low-ball hitters, and we’ll stay at the top of the zone, or just over the zone, with them. In our meetings, we always include whether a guy is a candidate for an elevated fastball. It’s incorporated into our pitching philosophy now as a place we’ll go.”
We’ve written about Taillon all season but the market has still not caught up to just how good he is. He’s only a -125 favorite here (or thereabouts) when guys like Nelson, Wood, Kluber and Musgrove are in the -160 to -180 range. Backing the Pirates here at -125 is very good value on an underpriced favorite but once again, we’re going for the kill and taking back a massive price by spotting an extra half run.
Lance Lynn is getting weaker by the month so put him on your fade list and don’t take him off until further notice. Lynn threw 92 innings in the first half of 2015 before suffering a late-June forearm strain and ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery in November 2015. He logged a mere 7 innings in the minors in 2016 but he has hit the ground running in 2017 with 102 innings already pitched to go along with a very respectable 3.61. It all looks nice on paper but it’s all about to blowup because serious fatigue on Lynn’s arm is present everywhere under the hood. Lynn’s first-pitch strike rate is 48% over his last five starts. Missing the zone is the first sure sign of fatigue. Lynn’s groundball rate is in progressive decline, as it’s gone from 42% in May, to 40% in June to 36% over his last five starts. His velocity is down over that span too. In his last start, Lynn went seven full, gave up just three hits and did not allow a single run. That pitching line sticks out and is one of the reasons the Cardinals are getting so much respect in this line. Don’t buy it. Lynn’s xERA in that start was 5.97. He struck out two batters the entire game but really only one, because catcher Rene Rivera stuck out twice. Lynn’s swing and miss rate is down to 6% over his last six starts. Credit Lynn’s 81% strand rate over his last six starts for keeping his head above water. You would be hard pressed to find a starter with more rapidly declining skills than Lance Lynn and his 6.71 xERA since the beginning of June. If he does well here, it’ll be luck driven but luck cannot hold up over time. We promise you that Lynn has some imminent blowups on the way. Whether that happens here or not remains to be seen but they are coming and if doesn’t happen here, we’ll try again next time. You should too.
Philadelphia +152 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers had eight hits last night and scored nine runs. They scored eight of those nine runs in the second inning while the Phillies scored six times and were threatening almost every inning. It was just one of those games in which Milwaukee got every bounce and ended up winning as a -160 favorite and we now have a very similar situation here although Jimmy Nelson is much better than last night’s starter, Zach Davies.
Nelson’s stock is through the roof. He comes into this start with a 3.30 ERA, a 2.45 ERA at home and a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts. Nelson also has a remarkable BB/K split of 27/118 in 109 frames. Wallowing away in mediocrity for the first three years of his career with yearly ERA’s of 4.93, 4.11, and 4.62 respectively, not many saw this coming from Jimmy Nelson. A change in pitch mix—upped four-seam fastball usage by 12% while reducing his sinker by 15%—and an improved knuckle curve have been instrumental in his surge. He has also been much more aggressive getting ahead in the count and attacking the strike zone. That has taken his control from putrid to superb. However, we must keep in mind that we’re only talking about a half a season here. Nelson has been tagged for four runs in three of his last 10 starts and he escaped major jams in his last start versus the Yanks in which he lasted five innings and surrendered seven hits and three earned runs. No question that he can thrive here and win but the price on Aaron Nola is too good to pass up on and that’s the basis for this choice.
In his second season last year, Aaron Nola posted a 2.65 ERA through his first 12 starts, supported by a sub-3 xERA and a BB/K split of 15/85 over 76 innings. His season ended with an injury in late July but he’s come back with even better skills this season over his first 13 starts. Over his last 35 innings, Nola has a BB/K split of 11/40 to go along with his 2.55 ERA. He has a 70% first-pitch strike rate to along with a 15% swing and miss rate over that span. That bodes well against a Milwaukee team that has struck out the second most times in MLB. Overall, Nola has struck out 81 batters over 80 frames. He has an elite groundball rate of 51% and an overall xERA of 3.02. We get Nola at a great price for two reasons here. First, he plays for the Phillies and secondly, this market is going to ignore Nola and focus in on Nelson pitching at home for the Crew. No matter how you break it down, it’s still an overlay that has a great chance to win.
Pass CFL
Jesse Schule
Mariners vs. White Sox
Play: Mariners -145
The Mariners cruised to a 4-2 win in Game 1 at Chicago last night, and they send ace Felix Hernandez to the mound in Game 2. Hernandez (4-3. 4.44 ERA) allowed just a pair of hits, striking out eight in six scoreless innings in a win over Oakland his last time out. He's pitched well since returning from injury, and should have won three of his four starts since coming off the DL. The bullpen cost him a win in a home loss to the Phillies at the end of June. He's had success at US Cellular Field, with a record of 1-0 and a 1.76 ERA in two starts there since 2014. The White Sox hand the ball to Derek Holland, who has been roughed up pretty good lately. The left-hander was tagged for seven runs on eight hits and two walks over four innings in a loss at Colorado his last time out. His last home start wasn't much better, surrendering five runs on five hits and a pair of walks over 5 1/3 innings in a 10-4 loss to Texas. He's now given up five or more runs in five of his last seven starts. **PITCHING CHANGE** - Mike Pelfrey replaces Derek Holland. Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 4.32 ERA in eight appearances at home this season. He won at Seattle earlier this year, but last season the Mariners tagged him for six runs on a dozen hits in five innings in a home loss.
Ian Cameron
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -130
This is not a bad price at all to back Pittsburgh and their surging starter Jameson Taillon who has been very consistent for them in recent outings. Taillon is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA in his last three starts with the Pirates picking up the W in each of those games. He's allowed just 2 runs over 17.1 innings of work during that span and the Pirates have a 2-0 mark when Taillon has started against the Cardinals. I think there is some downward trajectory on the way for Lance Lynn. He has not pitched as well outside of Busch Stadium entering this game with a 4.42 ERA on the road this season and the Cardinals have not been winning with Lynn on the mound just 3-7 as a team in the last 10 Lynn starts. In those last 10 starts, Lynn has only pitched more than 7 innings twice and that's bad news considering the struggles the Cardinals mediocre bullpen has endured all season long. Lynn was crushed for 7 runs in 5.2 innings in his last start against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh was 5-1 in their last 6 games going into the All-Star Break and took the first game of this series coming out of the break last night. The Pirates have some momentum and are a team worth riding here in this reasonable price range.
Buster Sports
Philadelphia at Milwaukee
Play: Philadelphia +153
We are looking tonight at a real nice live underdog when the Philadelphia Phillies face the Milwaukee Brewers in the second game of their 3 game series at Miller Park. The starting pitchers for tonight are for the Phillies RH Aaron Nola (6-6, 3.59 ERA) and he will face the Brewers RH Jimmy Nelson (8-4, 3.30 ERA) Nola has been able to handle the Brewers quite nicely in his career sporting a 0.69 ERA in his two starts last yr against them. Nola has also been pitching very well of late as he has a 1.64 ERA with a WHIP of 0.909 in his last 3 starts. As for Nelson he has pitched well lately himself. He is sporting a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. However when Nelson faced the Phillies last year he allowed 6 runs and lasted only 4 innings. We are getting a solid plus 153 with the Phillies today and we will take it in a game that will be closer than the oddsmakers say.
Chris Jordan
Saturday night's free winner is on the American League East-leading Boston Red Sox, as I like them to destroy their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees. And with the line being so high, I want you playing this one on the Run Line.
Chris Sale leads the league with 178 strikeouts, and ranks fourth in baseball with a 2.75 ERA. Now the power southpaw toes the slab against the Evil Empire to start his second half. Hard not to give him the nod at Fenway, where Sale is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA while stifling opponents to a bleak .187 average.
Meanwhile, I know Severino is on the hill after his first career All-Star nod, and he's also coming off his fourth double-digit strikeout game of the season, but this is Boston, and this is the biggest rivalry in baseball. The Sox, on a Saturday late afternoon in Beantown, he's in big trouble here. Especially after the way the Crimson Hose won last night, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth to walk off.
Take the Sox here, and play them on the run line.
3* RED SOX -1.5