Jeff Benton
Don't expect the scoreboard operators to be hanging too many crooked digits on the Fenway Park scoreboard this Saturday late-afternoon as Luis Severino and Chris Sale trot to the hill to do their thing.
Severino's last start saw him allow 3 runs over 7 innings, and he also struck out 10 batters in a home game against Milwaukee that did hold Under the total. That makes 2 of his last 3 starts having played Under the total, and Severino's lone start versus Boston at the end of April also saw an Under in a 3-1 Yankees win.
Sale went to the break having pitched Unders in his each of his last 3 starts. He is also 6-1 at home this season with a 2.40 ERA, with 5 of his 8 Fenway starts having played Under the total. This will be the southpaws second start this season versus New York, with the first resulting in a 3-0 loss to the Yankees - an Under by the way - back on April 27th.
Last night's game saw a pair of Boston runs in the 9th to send it just Over the total, but 5 6 of the past 8 series meetings between the rivals have still held Under the total.
Play the Yankees-Red Sox Under the total.
2* N.Y. YANKEES-BOSTON UNDER
AJ Penny
Texas vs. Kansas City
Play: Texas +111
Texas goes after a fifth victory in six games. LH Cole Hamels (4-0, 3.51 ERA) who is 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA lifetime versus the Royals will toe the slab. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City. Kansas City has slumped recently, losing four straight games after winning six of seven to push itself back into the American League playoff chase. The Royals will counter with LH Danny Duffy (5-5, 3.76ERA). The Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 1-4 in Duffy's last 5 starts vs. Rangers.
Handicappers Hub
Mariners vs. White Sox
Play: Mariners -146
Love this price here for Felix on the road against the White Sox who are selling the farm. Pelfrey is also coming in struggling with a 0-2 record and 8.31 ERA and the Mariners will jump all over him and give Hernandez a lot of run support for a nice and easy road win!
Vic Duke
Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -137
Blue Jays/Tigers 6:10: We'll go back on the Tigers with their top gun Fulmer. Tigers are 9-3 in his last 12 home starts. Fulmer has been rock solid on 5 days rest at 10-4 and should mow through the inconsistent Blue Jays' lineup. Blue Jays just 4-12 off a win and Tigers 5-2 off a loss. Toronto counters with Liriano who shows lots of inconsistency at this stage of his career. He's coming off a strong 6 inning performance against Houston; however, you'll rarely see him reach the 7th inning and he's struggled against Detroit over his career with a bloated 5.26 ERA. Tigers hitting lefties pretty well this year and should give Fulmer the needed run support.
TJ Pemberton
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
The Red Sox stole the win last night and have another chance to open the gap in the AL East on Saturday afternoon. Boston will feature Chris Sale on the mound who is seeking his 12th win on the season. Sale carries a 2.75 ERA with 178 strikeouts. The Red Sox are 26-14 at Fenway Park and have won four straight Saturday games when Sale starts. Lay the -1.5 runs with Boston on Saturday as we get a great return at +120.
Stephen Nover
San Francisco vs. San Diego
Play: San Diego +136
Sure on paper this looks like an epic pitching mismatch with Madison Bumgarner opposing Jhoulys Chacin.
But perception doesn't fit reality here.
Bumgarner hasn't pitched in three months. This is his first big league start since he sprained his left shoulder after a motorcycle mishap on April 20. Bumgarner is likely to be rusty and could be on a pitch count. It's a leap of faith to expect him to be in top form.
Even when he was healthy, Bumgarner has struggled against the Padres with a 4.73 ERA in his last four starts against them.
The Giants have the second-worst record in the majors in back of only the Phillies. They also have lost nine of Bumgarner's last 13 road starts.
Chacin has been the nuts at Petco Park with a 1.68 ERA in nine starts at home this season. Chacin has yielded fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and is in excellent form with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.
The Padres have proven tough against the Giants winning 12 of the past 17 meetings.
Bruce Marshall
Rangers at Royals
Pick: Rangers
This is a tricky period of time for the Royals, who have lost 4 straight after climbing back into the AL playoff picture. GM Dayton Moore appears set on keeping his pending FAs in house for one more pennant run instead of moving them beforehand, but if KC falters before the end of the month, Moore might want to re-think that idea. Meanwhile the Rangers have momentum after last night's 5-3 comeback win and Cole Hamels is off of his best start since returning from the DL.
Andre Ramirez
Atlanta vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle -195
The Dream are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Storm are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Dream are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
It's safe to say the Seattle Storm aren't the team I thought they were at the start of the season, as the losses are piling up. However, the Atlanta Dream can't win on the road where they are getting outscored by nearly seven points. Seattle is still shooting 49.4 percent from the field in its last five games and still has top tier talent to beat average / below average teams. I like the Storm to pull the win.
Eric Schroeder
My comp play will be the San Diego Padres, as I head to Petco Park for this National League West showdown against the San Francisco Giants. And in this one I want you to specifically list Jhoulys Chacin over Madison Bumgarner.
Since a rough beginning as a Padre, the right-hander has shown some spunk for the Friars. Going back to the beginning of June, Chacin has recorded a 2.44 ERA in seven starts, and has shrunk his ERA impressively, by a run and a half. He boasts a stingy 1.68 ERA at home this season, and will shut down the lowly Giants.
Meanwhile, Bumgarner is making his first appearance since suffering injuries from a dirt-bike accident on April 20. He's never really been consistent at Petco, and I think this is a bad spot for him to return to the rotation, as he's 4-6 with a 3.97 ERA lifetime in San Diego.
Take the Friars here.
1* PADRES
Jack Brayman
My free play takes us to Houston, where I'm playing the Minnesota Twins, and I'm listing Ervin Santana over Joe Musgrove.
Santana, who seems to have found a home in Minneapolis, is a 2017 All-Star, and should roll into the second half of the season riding high. He threw his MLB-leading fourth complete game in his final start before the break, and will rise to the occasion today against the American League-leading Astros. He is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA over his last three starts, so he'll be looking for a big showing here.
I certainly think he'll do better than Musgrove, who basically is at risk of losing his rotation spot once Dallas Keuchel and/or Collin McHugh return. He is making his 15th start of 2017, so he may be seasoned, but over his last three starts, he's given up 18 runs and six home runs in a mere 15 innings.
Take the Twins at a big price here, as the underdog number we're getting is ridiculous.
2* TWINS
Brad Wilton
Have to look for an Under between the Rangers-Royals, as their weekend series continues at Kauffman Stadium with Cole Hamels and Danny Duffy head to the mound for the start.
Coming into Friday night, the teams had held Under in 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 series meetings, and what do you know, last night's opener did indeed hold Under to make it 7 straight, and 9 of 10 Under the posted price.
Hamels is making his 4th start since being shelved back in late April, and in his last pair, the southpaw has worked 14-plus innings with just a pair of runs allowed. He also made an April start against Kansas City in which he worked 8 innings and allowed just one run to cross before heading for the DL.
Duffy is also back in the rotation after missing time due to injury. This will be his third start since the end of May. He did hold Texas scoreless way back in April, working into the 8th with just 4 hits allowed.
The Under is 6-2 the last 8 times he has started this season, and his home ERA is only 2.76 with all 5 of his home assignments Under the total.
Rangers-Royals to hold Low.
3* TEXAS-KANSAS CITY UNDER