DAVE COKIN
ROYALS VS. TIGERS
PLAY: ROYALS -120
A briefer than usual breakdown here, as this is really a starting pitcher play and not a great deal else.
I’m more than willing to back Danny Duffy here. The Royals have played their best baseball when he takes the mound, and fact is, Duffy is the KC ace right now. He’s been sensational on the road, and while Mike Pelfrey has shown some life lately for Detroit, there’s no question the pitching edge is strong on the Kansas City side.
There really aren’t that many spots where I’m even considering the Royals right now on the road, but Duffy is the one guy where I’ll make the exception. The Tigers will be minus Justin Upton, though the way he’s played, that’s not much of an absence.
This game fits on the -1 method I’ve been playing lately, but with the price where it is, there’s no need to go that route. I’ll bank on the southpaw Duffy to maintain his outstanding recent form and will give the Royals a play here.
Stephen Nover
Arizona +138
The Diamondbacks are still more about potential than production. They have a terrible 15-33 home record. But in my view this matchup makes for a good value play backing the home underdog with promising Archie Bradley against Brandon McCarthy.
McCarthy missed about 14 months following elbow surgery. This is the 33-year-old's third start since returning from the DL. McCarthy has gone just five innings during his previous two outings. The Diamondbacks should be somewhat acquainted with McCarthy since he made 22 starts for them in 2013.
It's too much to expect McCarthy - a middle-of-the-road type starter - to go deep into the game while holding the Diamondbacks down at hitter-friendly Chase Field. The Dodgers are missing one of their key players, too, with outfielder Joc Pederson on the DL.
Bradley has a high ceiling. The 23-year-old has given up three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Yet he's somewhat under-the-radar because he only won one of those games.
The Diamondbacks have won seven of Bradley's 10 NL West Division starts.
Bruce Marshall
White Sox +143
Tough night back from the All-Star break on Friday for the Chisox but willing to give the Pale Hose another look on Saturday at the Big A behind starter James Shields, who has turned around his season with three straight quality starts allowing just 5 runs in 20 1/3 IP (2.21 ERA) after a disasgrous start to his Chicago career last month.
Rob Vinciletti
Giants vs. Padres
Play: Giants -170
SF fits a big road warrior system in this game that has won over 80% since 2004. They have won 9 of the last 10 vs the Padre and are 8-1 as a road favorite from -150 to -175 and are 7-2 of late vs losing teams. The Padres have lost 5 of 6 as a home dog in this range. They have Perdomo pitching and he has an elevated 6.11 Era. The Giants counter with J. Samardjiza and he is 6-1 vs Sand Diego. Look for the Giants to win this one.
Mike Lundin
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore -121
The Baltimore Orioles defeated AL East rival Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 last night. They've now won six straight meetings and I like the Birds in Saturday's contest with Chris Tillman on the mound.
Tillman (12-2, 3.41 ERA) has recorded back-to-back winning decisions while holding both LA clubs to one run each through seven innings work. Tillman is 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay on the season and held the Rays scoreless on two hits with nine Ks through 6 2/3 frames his last outing here at the Trop.
Tampa Bay turns to Matt Moore (5-6, 4.46 ERA) who conceded four runs (two earned) on seven hits and three walks in six innings of a 4-1 loss to the Red Sox his last time out. Moore is 0-5 with 6.17 ERA in his last five starts versus Baltimore and 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in two meetings this year.
Orioles are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a win and 10-1 in Tillman's last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Rays are 3-13 in their last 16 home games and 0-4 in Moore's last four home starts vs. Orioles.
Brandon Lee
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Dodgers -144
Los Angeles has won each of Brandon McCarthy's two starts since he returned from injury and joined the rotation. I'll gladly back the Dodgers with McCarthy on the mound against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Arizona will send out youngster Archie Bradley, who wasn't in good form going into the break, posting a 5.00 ERA with a 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also got a 5.87 ERA in 5 home starts and in his only outing against Los Angeles this season, he gave up 5 runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work.
Marc Lawrence
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore -120
Edges - Orioles: Chris Tillman 4-0 last four team starts versus Tampa Bay, and 5-1 last six team starts in this park, and 8-0 versus A.L. East foes this season. Ray: Matt Moore 0-5 with 6.17 ERA last five team starts versus Baltimore, and 1-8 team starts at night this season. With Tillman 10-1 as a favorite this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore. Thank you and good luck as always.
Jimmy Boyd
Brewers/Reds Over 9½
Don't be afraid of the big number the books have set for this matchup. The value is clearly with the over in Saturday's showdown between the Brewers and Reds. Not only do we have two starters taking the mound in bad spots, but Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is one of the strongest hitters parks in the majors.
Milwaukee gives the ball to Jimmy Nelson. He's got a respectable 3.53 ERA in 18 starts, but that's because of how well he's pitched at home, where he has a 2.45 ERA. Nelson is a mere 1-4 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 8 road starts. He's also got an ugly 5.72 ERA in 7 career starts against the Reds. Cincinnati will counter with John Lamb, who is 1-6 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 13 starts. He rarely goes deep in games, as he averages just 5.2 innings/start. That's important to note, as the Reds have one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues (5.73 ERA).
Over is 8-3 in Nelson's last 11 road starts against a team with a losing record. It's also 18-6-4 in the Reds last 28 after scoring 5 or more runs, 3-0-1 in their last 4 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 7-3-1 in Lambs last 11 home starts.
Matt Josephs
Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8½
The Phillies and Mets continue their series on Saturday. Jerad Eickhoff is 4-4 with a 2.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.050 in nine home starts with seven of them going under the total. The righty has seen the Mets twice this season allowing five runs and 10 hits in 12 innings of work. He has gone under in three of his five outings against New York. The Mets offense has struggled mightily as of late. Entering Friday night they were hitting .235 against right-handed starters. Logan Verrett has put up some awful numbers this year, but his lone victory this year came against the Phillies in April. He gave up six hits and one walk in six innings. The Phillies are hitting around .226 at home this season going under in 25 of 45 games there. Both teams have decent bullpens. I think this total is just a bit high with mediocre offenses.
Jim Feist
White Sox at Angels
Pick: Over
This is a good offensive park and Chicago has a bad starter going in James Shields (4-10, 5.43 ERA). Chicago is 6-2 over the total against a losing team, plus the over is 18-6-3 in the White Sox's last 27 Saturday games. LA has picked it up offensively and the Over is 9-2 in the Angels last 11 home games. Matt Shoemaker (4-9, 4.59 ERA) is no ace, giving up three earned runs on five hits and two walks over five-plus innings in Friday's 9-5 victory over the Orioles.
Scott Rickenbach
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are looking to bounce back off of a tight loss yesterday and certainly should do just that. Tampa Bay will have Matt Moore on the mound and the southpaw has held the Orioles to 3 earned runs on just 5 hits while striking out 18 in 14 innings of work spanning his last two home starts versus Baltimore. Overall this season, Moore has a solid 3.57 ERA and minuscule 1.13 WHIP in his home starts. He'll be opposed by Chris Tillman who certainly is having a great season for the Orioles. However, though Baltimore has gone 12-0 in his home starts they are only 4-3 in his road starts. Before back to back solid starts against the two LA teams, Tillman had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his 7 prior starts. The last time he faced the Rays he gave up 6 earned runs on 10 hits in only 5 innings of work. With Tillman on the road for this one and Moore at home I see great line value with the home dog having the edge in this one. Even with the Orioles tight win yesterday, they are still just 6-13 in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. It also was only their 3rd win in 8 games on artificial turf this season. Look for the Rays to improve to 8-4 in Moore's 12 home starts this season.
Larry Ness
Chicago at Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles
James Shields won 13 games in his first season with the SD Padres last year, which was considered a disappointment. However, he did NOTHING right to open the 2016 with the Padres, going 2-7 with a 4.28 ERA in 11 starts (team was 2-9). He was traded to the Chicago White Sox on June 4 for reliever Erik Johnson and a minor leaguer and things got even worse in his first four starts for Chicago. Incredibly, he allowed 24 earned ERs on 29 hits and 13 walks in just 13.2 innings (note: he failed to last more than two innings in two of the starts), posting an ERA of 15.80. Somehow, he’s managed to turn things around over his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA.
James Shields is 4-10 with a 5.42 ERA over 18 starts with both the Padres and White Sox in 2016, as those teams are 5-13 in his starts, losing $817 at $100 per game. However, he takes the mound Saturday in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels, hoping his last three starts will become the “new norm.” It could help that in his 14 career starts vs the Angels he’s 7-3 with a 3.29 ERA (teams are 11-3). Opposing Shields will be Matt Shoemaker (4-9, 4.45 ERA). Shoemaker got off to a brutal start in 2016, opening 1-4 with a 9.15 ERA in five April starts. That resulted in a demotion to Triple-A. However, due to injuries to LA’s starting staff, the Angels had little choice but to call up Shoemaker just 10 days later.
Shoemaker has been a different pitcher since his recall, posting a 3.18 ERA in May, June and so far in July. Don’t dismiss the fact that he owns an 81-12 KW ratio over 76.1 innings since the end of April. He will take the mound tonight in Anaheim having allowed just four ERs over his last five home outings (35.1 innings), serving up three scoreless performances and an overall ERA of 0.98! I’ll back the home team.
Chase Diamond
Royals at Tigers
Play: Royals
Two teams battling to get back into the wild card spot as the 45-44 Royals take on the 47-43 Tigers. Mike Pelfrey is not good but has improved over his last few starts going into the break overall but he faces a pitcher in Danny Duffy 4-1 3.09 ERA that could of easily been an All-Star and I see him fully motivated to show he should have been tonight add in also he will be looking for revenge from a June start that this team lit him up. Royals are 6-3 last 9 SU at Detroit and Duffy has a lifetime ERA of 2.48 there.
JACK JONES
Red Sox/Yankees Over 9½
I look for a slug fest tonight between the rival Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. These are two starting pitchers who are really struggling right now, and I look for both to get roughed up in this one.
Eduardo Rodriquez has been awful to say the least for the Red Sox. The left-hander has gone 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.738 WHIP in six starts this season, 1-1 with a 10.12 ERA and 2.099 WHIP in three home starts, and 0-2 with an 11.77 ERA and 2.154 WHIP in his last three starts overall.
C.C. Sabathia got off to a fine start this year, but he has come back down to reality of late. The left-hander is 0-2 with a monstrous 8.22 ERA in his last four starts. Sabathia has given up a whopping 21 earned runs over 23 innings in those four outings.
The OVER is 57-28-3 in Red Sox last 88 vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 8-2-2 in Red Sox last 12 Saturday games. The OVER is 6-2-1 in Yankees last nine games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Yankees last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
ASA
San Diego Padres +1.5 -120
The Padres got the 4-1 win over the Giants yesterday in the series opener. San Diego has a subpar record on the season but they have won 13 of their past 24 home games to at least get back to playing respectable ball at home. They also finally shook their season-long curse against San Francisco as they had been 0-9 against the Giants this season before getting the streak-snapping win yesterday. A lot of times all it takes is one win to spur a streak going in the other direction and we expect that to be the case here. However, the biggest value here is with laying the short price to have the +1.5 runs with San Diego on their home field. Luis Perdomo gets the start for the Padres and he has gone at least 6 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. We expect another quality start from Perdomo here. The Giants will have Jeff Samardzija toeing the rubber this evening and the San Francisco right-hander is off of a good start but had allowed 16 earned runs in 16 innings over his 3 prior starts.