DAVE PRICE
Kansas City Royals -116
After losing 7 of their last 9 games overall, the Kansas City Royals will be hungry to get back on the winning track Saturday against the Detroit Tigers. They should do just that with their massive edge on the mound in this contest. Danny Duffy is 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 5 road starts. He'll be opposed by Mike Pelfrey, who is 2-8 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.766 WHIP in 17 starts, including 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in 8 home starts. Duffy sports a 3.13 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.842 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts vs. the Royals.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Oakland
Pick: Toronto
The Blue Jays had a 7-3 lead on the A's last night and appeared well on their way to victory. But alas, it was not enough as they fell 8-7 w/ the GW run decided via instant replay. That was just the latest in a long line of crushing losses for the Jays, who are now 9-16 in games decided by one run here in 2016. But they're 42-25 otherwise and with a +74 run differential (2nd best in AL), I remain a believer. I think they'll bounce back this afternoon.
Oakland is having a pretty terrible year overall and the most concerning part has to be the decline of supposed ace Sonny Gray. In 16 starts, Gray has a 5.16 ERA and 1.467 WHIP. His team start record is a woeful 5-11 including losses in seven of his last eight turns. His last win came all the way back on April 22nd! Last time out, he was actually effective (allowed only 1 ER in 6 IP), but the offense was shutout in a 4-0 loss at Minnesota. If I'm an A's fan, I'd be fearful of Gray regressing here as he'll be facing a top five offense in terms of runs scored. Behind Gray is the worst defense that the AL has to offer.
Don't discount the "daytime factor" here either; Toronto is 21-15 in day games this season while Oakland is just 14-21. Especially w/ knuckleballer R.A. Dickey toeing the rubber for Toronto. Dickey typically excells in daytime starts and overall he's been hot w/ a 24-7 KW ratio over his L4 outings. His last two have seen him allow a total of just one earned run. Here in Oakland, Dickey's career ERA is 2.87 (eight games). I don't see Oakland's offense doing the same kind of damage it did yday.
Big Al
Red Sox at Yankees
Play: Over
The second half kicks off with this most familiar of rivalries. But almost anyone would tell you that a Red Sox-Yankees series in 2016 doesn't nearly generate the same level of interest that it did just a few short years ago. Both teams have taken steps backwards the last couple of seasons, particularly in the area of starting pitching. The Red Sox may have improved theirs recently, but the Yankees certainly have not and both teams still have a way to go before they get back to their "glory years." There's certainly been nothing wrong with the Red Sox offense this season however, as they finished the first half with 490 runs scored - tops in the Majors by 30 runs (over the 2nd place Cubs). They almost certainly will make a move for some starting pitching soon and now they also have to go a while without their closer as Craig Kimbrel is on the DL. This pitching match-up of LH Eduardo Rodriguez vs LH CC Sabathia is not one that looks promising on the surface, especially for Rodriguez, who has an ERA of 11.77 over his previous three starts. Of course, Sabathia isn't that much better, as his ERA over his last three outings is 7.71. The Yanks finished the first half tied for fourth in runs scored against southpaws with 113, while Boston has gone 'over' in 47 of 83.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore -125
Tampa Bay has won a total of three games in the last month after last night's 4-3 loss to Baltimore for a 3-23 record in that span. The Orioles have won three in a row and in first place in the AL East by two games over Boston. Chris Tillman is 12-2 with a 3.41 ERA and the Orioles have won eight of his last nine starts, including the last two when allowed only two runs and eight hits in 14 innings. Tillman already is 2-0 against the Rays this season and in four games at Tropicana Field last year, he had a 2.39 ERA and a .163 opponent batting average. The Rays have lost 11 of Matt Moore's last 15 starts and Baltimore hitters have had no trouble with him this season scoring eight runs with 10 hits in 13 2/3 innings. Look for the Rays to suffer another loss on Saturday.
CARMINE BIANCO
Toronto FC at San Jose Earthquakes
Play: Toronto FC +278
A late night match up for Saturday's Free Play and a nice priced underdog with the away side Toronto FC here. Toronto come off a pretty good effort and 1-1 draw in their midweek away match at Colombus while missing and resting some starters ahead of today's match. Leading goalscorer Giovinco was rested and will start tonight, likely along side Hamilton although I expect Jozy Altidore to finally make a return after a hamstring injury that's kept him out over 6 weeks. He'll be the key to getting Giovinco some space and back onto the scoresheet as his scoring drought coincided with the Altidore injury. The TFC backline has been solid all season and although Bradley is still missing from the midfield after an injury with the US men's team in the Copa America the trio of Chapman, Cheyrou and Osorio have filled in well in his absence. Both sides are in need of points to get into the playoff race but with San Jose's form being off the past month I'll take a shot with the away side here. Toronto have what will be a long extended home schedule coming up where they've played well and can be expected to pick up some valuable points so tonight might be a good opportunity to open it up and go for the full 3 ahead of the long homestand. With the price at +278 on a TFC win I'll give it a shot here.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 82-73 run with free picks: Texas at CHICAGO (-135).
The STORYLINE in this game today - Interleague play is where I'm headed for today's freebie, as I like the Rangers and Cubs contest. After seeing how well Chicago opened the second half of the season, I think the Cubbies will win their third-straight contest with a rousing win tonight.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Anthony Rizzo is the key culprit for today's win, as the All-Star first baseman has gone 17-for-40 with two home runs during a 10-game hitting streak. He has hit safely in 21 of his last 22 contests, and could have a field day against Yu Darvish today.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Cubs are now 3-0 in interleague play this season, while they have won five straight against American League opponents dating to last year. Look for them to continue to dominate.
2* CHICAGO
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Indians to roll over the Twins once again.
Friday saw first-place Cleveland take the series opener, 5-2. Believe it or not, that was just the Indians 3rd win in 7 games this season against the Twins!
Look for the series numbers to start to flaten out, as the fact remains, the Twins are the worst team in the A.L., so chances they continue their mastery over Cleveland are very slim.
Trevor Bauer who did get touched up by the Yankees just prior to the break, but had been on a 4-0 run prior with a 2.10 ERA.
Tyler Duffey has been a bright spot for the Twins, going 3-0 with an ERA just over 2 for his last 3 trips to the bump, but I have a feeling that line is going to take a hit in this Saturday meeting.
Play the Indians to notch the win.
4* CLEVELAND
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Saturday is the Baltimore Orioles over the Tampa Bay Rays, as I like Chris Tillman to outduel Matt Moore at Tropicana Field. Though this one is in Tampa Bay, trust me we have the better pitcher going for us tonight.
Plus, Orioles manager Buck Showalter gave his No. 1 starter an extra day of rest coming out of the break, so Tillman steps to the mound well-rested for his first start of the second half. He closed out the first half after beating the Angels, 4-2, last Sunday, firing seven innings of one-run ball.
Now, Moore has pitched well lately thanks to better command and added velocity on his fastball, but I don't trust him against the hard-hitting O's, as he's 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in two starts against them.
Take the road team and list both
2* ORIOLES
Chris Jordan
My free winner tonight is on the Seattle Mariners, over the Houston Astros, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starters: Hisashi Iwakuma and Lance McCullers.
Since going 3-5 in Iwakuma's first eight trips to the hill this season, the Mariners are a stellar 8-2 in his last 10 starts. And the crafty right-hander has limited opponents to three or fewer runs in six of those starts and to a mere one or fewer earned runs twice in that span.
Meanwhile, the M's will take advantage of Houston's McCullers, who will be the victim of revenge. The last time the righty faced this lineup, he was dominant, striking out 10 in seven innings as the Astros won, 2-1. I think Seattle is going to unleash, as the M's rank ninth this month with a .274 batting average, and is tied for second with 18 home runs in July.
Take the home team and list both scheduled starters.
2* MARINERS
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Saturday is the same as it was for Friday...the Boston Red Sox.
Pretty much the same analysis, the Sox made moves to improve over the break, while it sure looks like the Yankees are going to be sellers before this home stand is over.
Boston won it 5-3 last night, as the Yankees were held to just 4 hits. That makes it a 5-2 mark this season for the Beantowners over the Bombers, so the coice seems pretty obvious to me.
Rodriguez and Sabathia are both likely to get hit, the problem is, Sabathia is likely to get hit harder since the bigger bats reside in the visitor's dugout.
Go with the Red Sox.
2* BOSTON
RAY MONOHAN
Brewers vs. Reds
Play: Over 9.5
The Brewers and Reds continue their weekend series and the Over here has solid value. John Lamb is the main reasoning behind this play. He has been brutal this season, going 1-6 with an ERA of 5.43 on the season. Lamb had his shortest outing of the season against the Brewers, going 3.2 innings, allowing 6 runs. As a team, Milwaukee has been no better. The Brewers concede 5.00 runs per game on the road this season. Given the magnitude of Great American Ballpark, this is not a nice spot for the Brewers pitching staff. Some trends to consider. Over is 8-3 in Nelsons last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati. This is an extremely nice spot to see a lot of run scoring opportunities. Given that, the Over is a free move here.
Wunderdog
Houston @ Seattle
Pick: Seattle +103
Seattle looks to bounce back from Friday when one bad inning cost the Mariners a 7-3 loss to Houston. Seattle has won eight of Hisashi Iwakuma's last 10 starts, including his last appearance when he allowed just one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings at Kansas City. The right-hander usually gives his team a solid six or seven innings and he is 5-2 at home this year and has a 3.29 ERA at Safeco Field the last three seasons. Lance McCullers had problems against Oakland last Saturday when he didn't make it past four innings, giving up three runs and seven hits and walking four. McCullers has a 6.89 road ERA and the Astros are 3-11 in his last 14 road starts dating to last season.
Stephen Nover
Royals at Tigers
Play: Royals
Question: Who is the Royals' best starter? I'd go with Danny Duffy. He's made 11 starts since becoming a part of the Royals' starting rotation and gone 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's starts this season. The key for Duffy is better control. He has a 23-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts.
Duffy has built up his stamina, too, going into the seventh inning during his last three starts. Kansas City has the stronger bullpen and could get back closer Wade Davis from the DL today.
Mike Pelfrey has a 5.35 career ERA in seven starts versus the Royals. Pelfrey actually is pitching better of late. But at 32 he is who he is - a fringe starter who is lucky to have a rotation start. Pelfrey has a 4.58 ERA on the season and a fastball that couldn't break glass. Pelfrey doesn't go deep into games either. He's yet to pitch past the seven inning this season.
Note, too, that the Tigers will be without Justin Upton. He's on the bereavement list.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA -102 over Colorado
Mike Foltynewicz came to Atlanta from the Astros in the Evan Gattis deal in January of 2015. The former first round pick heads to the mound today after an impressive outing versus the White Sox on July 10th. The big 6'4” flame-thrower tossed seven scoreless innings while striking out 10. We love it when guys can get outs on their own and Folty does just that. He's has 45 K's in 49 innings this season all behind his 95.9 mile per hour heater. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 17% with an xERA of 2.01. Foltynewicz is getting progressively better with each start but perhaps more importantly is that he’s throwing with confidence. There is no denying the talent here and now he has the experience and confidence to go with it. As a small underdog in his home park, Foltynewicz is the true value play here.
Chad Bettis put up some great numbers to start the season considering he plays half his games in Denver. In May and June, Bettis posted a 6-3 record and a 2.69 ERA. He had a high profile start at Dodger Stadium June 6th that got him a win and a ton of attention but it's been all downhill since then. In his last four starts, Bettis has given up 12 runs on 21 hits in 21.1 innings while striking out just eight. With 78 K’s in 102 innings and a 52% groundball rate, Bettis manages to keep his head above water by keeping the ball out of the thin air in Colorado. His dominant start/disaster start split speaks to his "not horribleness." While Bettis has some appeal, it only applies when he’s taking back a tag. As the chalk on the road, his value disappears. The Rocks scored a rare 11 times on the road last night so their appeal is stronger today than it was yesterday. That’s our cue to jump in, as we get the home team and the much better arm in an evenly priced game.
Boston +112 over N.Y. YANKEES
We’re not going to go too deep into the starters here because it’s not very relevant. What’s relevant is that both pitchers are replacement level guys that would have a hard time cracking most of the rotations at this level. Even if C.C. Sabathia is superior to Chi-Chi Rodriguez, does it really matter? That’s like saying Bob Barker could defeat Larry King in a 100-yard dash. The bottom line is that the Yanks offense continues to make a lot of bad pitchers look good while the Red Sox offense can make a lot of good pitchers look bad. We told you about Sabathia’s good fortune six starts ago but it has caught up to him. Sabathia's posted two-straight disasters at home, in addition to three of his last four starts overall. He’ll now face a Red Sox lineup that has a .886 OPS over the last 14 days, which is second in the league.
The Yankees continue to be overpriced almost daily and it’s not warranted. New York’s meat, the 4, 5 and 6 guys in the batting lineup consists of Brian McCann (.244), Mark Texeria (.189) and Alex Rodriguez (.221). That trio couldn’t be the 7, 8 and 9 hitters on most AL clubs. New York’s batting lineup is filled with rally killers that strike out often and that have no shot of beating out a double-play ball. C.C. Sabathia is New York’s biggest starting pitcher risk and there is no chance that we’re going to miss fading him today or any day when he’s favored.
MINNESOTA +123 over Cleveland
The Indians might have the best rotation in baseball but young Trevor Bauer could be their weakest link. In his last start, the former top-3 pick was lit up by the hapless Yankees for five runs on eight hits in just 5.2 innings of work. His 1.41 WHIP in July is also a concern, as he's putting guys on base at a much higher rate than he was earlier this season. Bauer has not fared well against the Twinkies recently either. In fact, in three starts against Minnesota last season, Bauer posted a 4.91 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, resulting in two disasters and one near disaster. He’ll now face a hot-hitting Twins’ team that is tops in MLB in OPS (.900) over the last 14 days.
If there was ever a team that would have skipped the All-Star festivities it would have been these Twins. Minny was finally rolling coming into the break by winning seven of their last nine games, including three of four over the American League leading Rangers. Tyler Duffey is a name you wouldn't expect to see on a list of the most skilled starters during the past 12 months but his skills have featured good command and a groundball tilt with eight K’s/9. Duffey’s knuckle-curve and changeup are both solid strikeout pitches. While his 5+ ERA will scare some away, we’re very interested in him at home with a tag. Duffey has whiffed 19 batters in his last 20 innings. In his last start in Texas, he pitched six scoreless innings while striking out nine on his way to a victory. Duffey has been great against the Indians in his three career starts with a 2-0 record, .191 oppBA, 0.93 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Twins poor record keeps them underpriced daily, which is precisely the case again here.
SAN DIEGO +149 over San Francisco
The Padres shook a big monkey off their back last night by getting their first win of the season over the NL West leading Giants. Make no mistake, this division is a two-horse race and the Padres aren’t one of the two but we like that they came out swinging considering the circumstances. San Diego GM A.J. Preller made a shrewd move by sending first time All-Star Drew Pomeranz to the Red Sox for top prospect Anderson Espinoza, who ranks 15th on Baseball America's mid-season prospect report. He's just 18 and has a chance to anchor the Padres rotation for a decade. Also in the Padres future is Luis Perdomo, who's coming off an appearance in the Futures Game on All-Star weekend. The market will find it difficult to dismiss Perdomo’s 7.33 ERA but we do not because much of that damage was done while he was coming out of the bullpen early in the season. His poor surface stats are the result of a 38% hit rate, 58% strand rate, and 43% hr/f more than anything else. His underlying skills as a starter were very good with 8.4 K’s/9, 3.4 BB’s/9 and a 62% groundball rate. In fact, he was the only starter in June who combined a 12%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball tilt. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss rate against it), Perdomo is absolutely one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. This kid has nasty stuff and a promising future.
After a strong start to the season, Jeff Samardzija limped into break registering just two wins since May 24th. In that time “The Shark” has given up 31 earned runs in 46.1 innings of work while striking out just 28 batters. His ERA in June was 6.83, which was way up from the 2.08 mark he posted in May. Samardzija not getting better as the summer wears on. After four straight 200+ inning seasons we wonder if fatigue is becoming a factor. The sub-indicators suggest that might be the case. Samardzija’s swing and miss rate is just 8% since the start of June. He’s been tagged for four jacks in one game and three in another over that span as well. Samardzija has been tagged for 10 jacks over his past seven starts. The Giants have so much more market appeal than the Padres have. Samardzija has so much more appeal than Perdomo has based on familiarity and pedigree. Combine the two and it creates this huge overlay, which we’re all over.
Dave Essler
Marlins -135 1st Half
Duffey is the Twins great white hope to win some games, and in fact beat the Indians (and Bauer) on the road this season. When he's on he's inducing a ton of ground ball outs - which he had been doing right before the break. Most of the Tribe have a game, some two, against him. They've not shown the ability to do much. Bauer has either been brilliant or terrible most of this season, and prior to this season from 2013 to 2015 he's 1-3 with 9 bombs allowed in only 43 innings. The Twins know him well. If the Twins pen had been any good of late I'd bet this even bigger - and BECAUSE the Twins pen hasn't been overly effective I suggested splitting this with the F5.