Free Picks for Saturday, July 1st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RAYS AT ORIOLES
PLAY: OVER 11
The weather conditions look favorable for the offenses in the game between Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Breeze blowing out, hot and sticky with a chance of a thunderstorm. Good recipe for lots of runs in a ballpark that can certainly yield plenty of them.
The two starting pitchers each tend to give up lots of fly balls, particularly Bundy. That’s another potential plus for this one turning into a shootout.
Obviously, none of this has been lost on the oddsmakers as the O/U is clearly quite high. Nevertheless, the Over between the Rays and Orioles looks like a decent option in this game.
Scott Rickenbach
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Rockies +143
As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on my Top Play underdog winner on Colorado yesterday, the Rockies come into this match-up with Arizona looking for revenge. The Rockies lost 2 of their final 3 games with the Diamondbacks at Coors Field last week and that sent them into an 8-game tailspin. This is a key NL West match-up too so Colorado is fully focused on gaining some redemption. Last night's 6-3 win was certainly the right start for the Rockies but there is still work to be done. While everyone will be looking at Zack Greinke at a "reasonable price" at home in this one, I am convinced it is priced "low" for a reason. The fact is that Tyler Chatwood generally pitches very well away from home. In other words, don't be surprised if he outduels Greinke in this one! Chatwood's most recent road start was a rare ugly performance. Prior to that outing Chatwood had given up a TOTAL of only 5 earned runs in his last 5 road starts! This is no fluke either as, in 2016, Chatwood went 8-1 with a 1.69 ERA in his road starts. Away from home he held hitters to a .190 batting average last season. This season opponents are only hitting .187 against Chatwood in his road starts. He held the Dbacks to 1 run on just 2 hits in 7 innings the last time he faced them. Greinke got rocked for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 7 and 1/3 innings the last time he faced the Rockies. Look for another "upset" here.
Brandon Lee
Giants vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -121
Pittsburgh is worth a look laying a short number at home on Saturday, as they should come out with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed in the opener by 8-runs (13-5). Key here is Pittsburgh has been playing better of late and should be able to get the offense going against the Giants Matt Moore. IN his last 3 starts, Moore owns a 10.05 ERA and awful 2.163 WHIP. He has a 8.39 ERA in 9 road starts and the Giants are just 2-7 in those outings. I know the numbers aren't great for Pirates starter Chad Kuhl, but he's been decent here of late of giving them 5 solid innings without giving up too much damange. I think Kuhl does just enough here to secure an easy Pittsburgh victory.
Stephen Nover
Philadelphia at New York
Play: Philadelphia +160
Zack Wheeler remains a promising pitcher despite losing two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he's not in good form and the Phillies have played better on the road lately. So this line is too high. I believe the Phillies represent excellent value.
Philadelphia is 3-4 during its current road trip with two of those losses coming by one run. The Phillies scored 13 runs in sweeping two games at Seattle before running into a hot Jacob deGrom in a 2-1 loss to the Mets last night. deGrom may be the hottest pitcher in baseball going 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 31 strikeouts in his last four starts.
The Phillies' five five batters - Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph and Maikel Franco - were a combined 0-for-19 Friday night. Expect those players to do much better against Wheeler, who is coming off the DL after being sidelined with biceps tendinitis.
Wheeler had been shelled for 15 runs during his previous two starts spanning only 3 2/3 innings. Wheeler has a home ERA of 5.91 this season and 4.81 at Citi Field during his career. The Mets are 2-7 in Wheeler's last nine starts at Citi Field. Mets closer Addison Reed carries a fatigue rating having pitched an inning each of the last two days.
Jeremy Hellickson doesn't have Wheeler's ceiling, but usually is a dependable six-inning pitcher. The 30-year-old Hellickson's current form is much better than Wheeler's. Hellickson has given up just two runs and nine hits during his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Philadelphia has won six of its last seven division games in which Hellickson has started.
Ray Monohan
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -110
The Chicago Cubs lost game one against the Cincinnati Reds, but this is a really good opportunity for them to bounce back and take game two. On the mound for the Reds is Jackson Stephens. He will be another Reds rookie making his major league debut. I think he will really struggle against a Cubs offense that has under performed this year, but still has a lot of big names in that can do a lot of damage.
If they get past him early they will get to a Reds Bullpen that has been less then spectacular this year. Some trends to note, Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. Reds are 1-8 in their last 9 games with Hernandez behind home plate. The Cubs will bounce back in this one.
Chip Chirimbes
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati +106
This one could be 'hard-to-swallow' as most are waiting for the Cubs to turn it on but, they are waiting for the All-Star break to come and go before they start their second half run. Still, too early before they get serious.
Marc Lawrence
Braves vs. Athletics
Play: Braves +130
Edges - Braves: Dickey 4-1 last five team starts, and 26 Ks with 2 BB’s last four starts… Athletics: Cotton 7.09 ERA home as opposed to 3.26 ERA away this season… With the Braves winners of four straight games against Oakland entering this series, we recommend a 1* play on Atlanta.
Ben Burns
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Over 9
Sam Gaviglio (3-2, 3.32 ERA) looked decent in a spot start for the Mariners against Houston on Saturday, giving up two runs off six hits over six innings. Gaviglio has looked brilliant at times and poor in other in his roll as starter, but note that he owns a ballooned 5.40 ERA on the road this season. Ricky Nolasco (2-9, 5.23) had his last start cut short after taking a line drive off the leg on Monday. Nolasco had thrown 6.1 innings of scoreless ball up to that point, but performances like that have been few and far between for the veteran this year (note that he’s just 1-4 with a 6.08 ERA at home.) With these volatile starters going head-to-head on Saturday night, consider the over in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -122
I played against Baltimore with sucess last night, as I faded the struggling Tillman. That was just a great spot for Tampa Bay given their strong starter they were sending out. I just feel the Orioles are a bit undervalued due to their struggles of late, even though they have started to turn a corner with a 4-2 record over their last 6.
It's easy to forget they are a strong 24-15 at home this season. I just think how well the play at Camdens and them starting Dylan Bundy, this is too good of a price to pass up. Bundy has a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 8 home starts and after a couple of bad outings, Bundy got back on track in his last start, which just so happened to be against the Rays. He allowed just 3 runs on 5 hits with 8 K's in 7 innings of a 8-3 win. I like his chances of throwing another gem in this one.
Rays will counter with Jake Odorizzi, who is just 4-3 with a 4.00 ERA in 14 starts. He's ERA jumps to 4.81 on the road along with an ugly 1.562 WHIP. He's not thrown well of late with a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 outings and owns a 5.52 ERA in 14 career starts against the Orioles.
Jack Jones
Yankees vs. Astros
Play: Over 9½
This is a very intriguing series between two of the best lineups in baseball in the Astros and Yankees. Those lineups have carried them to the top of the standings in the American League. And they combined for 17 runs in Game 1 yesterday in a 13-4 victory by the Yankees. Look for the bats to stay hot today.
Jordan Montgomery has actually pitched well for the Yankees this season, but one of his worst starts of the year came against the Astros on May 12th. He gave up 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 6 innings in that start, and the Astros should hit him even harder at home this time around.
Francis Martes is no more than a fill-in starter for the Astros, and the Yankees should get into their bullpen early in this one. Martes is only averaging 4.2 innings per start this season while posting a 4.26 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in three starts. This will be his toughest test yet.
The Yankees are 15-4 to the OVER vs. teams with a winning percentage of 62% or better over the last two seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Montgomery's last four starts.
John Martin
Giants vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -124
The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped Game 1 of this series to the San Francisco Giants. I look for them to bounce back with a win here Saturday and for them to obliterate Matt Moore in the process. Moore is 3-8 with a 6.05 ERA in 16 starts this year, 1-4 with an 8.39 ERA in nine road starts and 1-1 with a 10.05 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 7.50 ERA in only one start against the Pirates, which came last season when he yielded 5 earned runs in 6 innings. The Giants are 0-8 in Moore's eight starts vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. San Francisco is 2-8 in Moore's last 10 road starts. The Pirates are 10-2 in Saturday games this season.
Dave Price
Mariners vs. Angels
Play:Mariners +109
The Seattle Mariners just scored 10 runs yesterday against the Angels in a blowout win. Now I expect them to hit Ricky Nolasco hard here again Saturday, and we're getting a nice price on them as dogs. Nolasco is 3-9 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 16 starts this year, 1-4 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 7 home starts, and 1-2 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Nolasco hasn't had much success against the Mariners, going 1-4 with a 4.77 ERA in 7 lifetime starts. Sam Gaviglio has been solid in 8 starts for the Mariners, going 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Nolasco is 3-12 (-11.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 5-1 in Gaviglio's last 6 starts. The Angels are 1-10 in Nolasco's last 11 starts.
Zack Cimini
Chicago at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Worn down pitching staffs are rampant across MLB. Pitching injuries and depth has been a concern for the Reds for over two seasons now. For the Cubs it's a new issue as they lost yesterday utilizing Mike Montgomery. Look for further issues as the Cubs hope to rely on surprising pitcher Eddie Butler. Compounded issues with run support pose value for the underdog Reds.
Jim Feist
Nationals at Cardinals
Pick: Under
Gio Gonzalez (2.87 ERA) has had a great season and the team is on a 4-1 run under the total. He faces a weak St. Louis offense that is 7-3 under the total against lefty starters. Michael Wacha throws best at home with a 3.26 ERA and a 4-1 record here.