Raphael Esparza
Werdum / Overeem Under 1.5 Rounds +150
This is a heavyweight fight Saturday night in Las Vegas and I see one of these heavyweights going down quickly. Alistair Overeem has won 5 out 6 fights and Overeem has the power in both hands to end this fight quickly. Both fighters have lost to the champ Stipe Miocic, and I see both fighters wanting to get their opponent down early. Werdum is the number one contender in the heavyweight division, but his chin has been questionable and if gets hit early by Overeem or the other way around then I see this fight ending early. Early 2nd round I see this fight ending and wouldn't shock me it it’s even earlier. Take the +150 now because this number may be gone by Saturday morning.
Will Rogers
Atlanta vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland -131
The set-up: Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz took a no-hitter into the ninth inning last night. Oakland broke up the no-hitter on Matt Olson’s ninth-inning HR but the Braves won 3-1 for their ninth victory in 13 games. Is it fair to say that Atlanta has pulled withing 8 1/2 games of the Nats in the NL East? Think the Nats are worried? Oakland finished June at 12-16 and is 35-45 on the season, finding themselves a whopping 18 1/2 games of the AL West-leading Astros.
The pitching matchup: R.A. Dickey (6-5 & 4.63 ERA) takes the mound for Atlanta and Paul Blackburn will make his major-league debut for Oakland. Dickey had a decent June, going 3-1 with a 4.02 ERA in five starts (Braves were 4-1). He held the Giants to three hits over seven shutout innings on June 19 and five days later gave up one run on five hits in seven innings to beat Milwaukee. Dickey has struck out 26 hitters over his past four starts, going 3-1 in that stretch. He's 4-5 with a 4.32 ERA in 15 career starts vs. Oakland (teams are 6-9). Blackburn gets the call for his major-league debut after making 15 appearances (14 starts) for Triple-A Nashville this season. He struck out 56 hitters and walked 26 in 79 2/3 innings at Nashville, while posting a 1.19 WHIP and holding opponents to 7.8 hits per nine innings. Blackburn is filling in for Jharel Cotton, who was scratched due to thumb blister.
The pick: Dickey's best month of 2017 was June but I'm not much on this guy, who I believe has seen his better days go by, awhile back. Blackburn is a Bay Area native and attended Heritage High School in Brentwood, some 45 miles east of Oakland. He expects to have a large contingent of family and friends at his major-league debut. "Family, friends, everyone's excited," Blackburn said. "I'm excited to be here. I'm just looking forward to the game and having fun with it. There's going to be a decent amount of people here, definitely. Parents, grandparents, uncles and lots of friends will be here." I'm backing Blackburn and the A's.
Larry Ness
New York at Houston
Pick: Houston -125
Brett Gardner hit a grand slam and matched his career high of six RBI as New York cruised to a 13-4 victory in Friday's opener of the three-game series. The Yanks have had a tough time lately, as they fallen out of first place in the AL East, having lost 13 their last 18 games (sit one game back of Boston). Houston had it's own "mini-slump" in going 4-8 from June 6-18 but last night's loss was just its last in 11 games. The Astros still own MLB's best record (54-27) and maintain a huge 13 1/2-game lead in the AL West.
Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.53 ERA) will start for New York and Francis Martes (2-0, 5.51 ERA) for Houston. Montgomery will be is search of a fifth straight winning decision, as he's 4-0 over his last five starts (Yanks are 4-1). He's allowed just five ERs over his four wins in that stretch (1.75 ERA) and will make only his second career start against Houston. Montgomery lost to the Astros on May 12, when he gave up four runs and eight hits in six innings while serving up a three-run HR to former Yankee Brian McCann. Martes makes only his fourth career start in this contest. He won his first two major-league starts but struggled in his third, although he escaped with a no-decision against Seattle on Sunday. He was pulled after surrendering two runs on two hits and four walks over two innings versus the Mariners. Martes has registered 16 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings but he's had control issues with 11 walks.
The Yankees are in the midst of 16 consecutive games without an off-day (that stretch won't conclude on July 6) and manager Joe Girardi is working hard to juggle his lineup so that his most effective contributors are allowed to contribute without burning out. Playing the team with MLB's best record is hardly a respite and after a 13-run, 14-hit outburst last night, a return to earth is likely, even against a rookie pitcher. I'll take the Astros.
Teddy Davis
Giants vs. Pirates
Play:Pirates -126
I lost with the Pirates last night as the Giants scored 13 runs. I think their luck runs out today as they send Moore to the hill who has a 1-4 record on the road. His road ERA is 8.39 and his recent form is even worse at 10.05.
Handicappers Hub
Twins vs. Royals
Play:Twins +130
Great price here for Berrios who is 7-2 with a 2.98 ERA on the season against Farrell who is making his first start of the season. I really like Berrios today to slow down this KC offense and the Twins to get to Farrell for a much needed road win.
Wunderdog
Boston vs. Toronto
Pick: Boston -154
Boston is moving up the ladder offensively at #13 in runs scored, and fifth in on-base percentage. Boston also has a strong bullpen (2.92 ERA, third best in baseball), throwing five scoreless innings to close out Friday's series opener in a 7-4 win in 11 innings. The Red Sox unleash ace lefty Chris Sale (10-3, 2.77 ERA), who leads the majors with 155 strikeouts. Toronto is #26 in runs scored, #22 in on-base percentage, and is 5-13 against a left-handed starter. Blue Jays lefty Francisco Liriano (5.46 ERA) has walked 31 in 56 innings while allowing 59 hits. Sale is also 22-4 against an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.
Bruce Marshall
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Pick: Over
It's been a mini-surge for the Giants, in their best stretch of the season with four straight wins, including last night's 13 run explosion at PNC Park. The latter suggests "over" might he worth a look tonight with starter Matt Moore, whose struggles have not abated as his ERA has risen to 6.04. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Chad Kuhl has a 5.58 ERA and was hit hard again in his last outing by the Cards (4 runs and 8 hits in 5 IP).
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +3 over SASKATCHEWAN
A return to the playoffs in 2016 won't do much to ease the pain of a nearly 30 year Grey Cup drought but for the Blue Bombers, it was a step in the right direction. Head coach Mike O'Shea returns for his fourth season, which is saying a lot considering this franchise burns through head coaches like Andy Reid burns through a buffet. Looming over O'Shea, who is in the last year of his contract, is offensive coordinator and former Bombers coach Paul LaPolice. For O'Shea, the pressure is on with raised expectations in 2017 but this group returns much of the offensive line including Stanley Bryant, Travis Bond, Sukh Chungh, Matthias Goossen and Jermarcus Hardrick, star running back Andrew Harris and quarterback Matt Nichols, who wrestled the job from Drew Willy last season. The continuity on offense can't hurt and Nichols appears to be at his best when he has something to prove.
Like much of the league the Bombers defense is a big question mark but we like the addition of Tristan Okpalaugo. Okpalaugo had 23 sacks in his two years with Toronto and should compliment fellow sack master, Jamaal Westerman nicely in the trenches.
In a nine-team league there's going to be some oddball scheduling and this season is no exception. Six teams have already played two games with the Bombers yet to take the field. It's easy to overlook Winnipeg after they sat last week out but Nichols and company did not take an extended holiday. Nichols is a film junkie and he spent all week studying the Roughriders Week 1 loss in Montreal. “I watch every minute, every play from every game.” Nichols told the beat reporters this week, “I've already watched their (Riders) game film 10 times and it's a long week still ahead for us to continue watching it”. That sneak peak is a real advantage for the Bombers, as the Riders have many weakness to exploit and they are all on film. The Bombers come into Week 2 as the great unknown.
With a game already under their belt, many pundits and pick sellers are giving the Riders the edge here because they've already taken the field as a unit. These people obviously didn't watch much of that Week 1 effort. It was an ugly game where the Riders benefited from a freebie touchdown on a play that should have clearly been overturned. Remind us again why the CFL has replay if they are still going to get the calls wrong. Regardless, the Riders were in a position to win the game on a last second field goal but kicker Tyler Crapigna was unable to convert. Week 2 is a big one for Saskatchewan. Its the first regular-season game in their brand new stadium and with that comes it's own set of pressures. There will be many distractions for the players, as they try to accommodate friends and family with tickets, hotels and everything else that comes with hosting a historic home game.
Where it matters, at the window, the Roughies opened this game as a +1-point home dog to the Bombers but Saskatchewan has now moved into the role of favorite, which is a totally different ball game. Last week Saskie was a +6½ point pooch in Montreal and at no point did they do anything to justify being a favorite against any team in this league, even in Regina and the oddsmakers know it. The market has pushed the number across the threshold. That's fine with us, as we now get the better team plus the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +102 over L.A. ANGELS
We really don’t care who’s starting for the Mariners because this is a direct fade on the Angels with Ricky Nolasco going but we’ll bring you up to speed on the M’s rotation. Drew Smyly (elbow) is out for the season after being diagnosed with a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery. Smyly will likely miss all of 2018 as well. Lefty Ariel Miranda's status in the Seattle rotation is cemented, at least for now. A 50% fly ball rate has resulted in a severe case of gopheritis for Miranda (1.8 HR/9), and means his ERA isn't likely to dip below four despite his solid command. Sam Gaviglio (today’s starter) has gone the other way, with a 50-plus groundball rate somewhat offsetting a rather marginal 5.6 K’s/9. His 3.38 ERA is over a run lower than expected (4.48 xERA) but he seems to always give the M’s a chance to win. Rookie prospect Andrew Moore will be recalled when Seattle needs a fifth starter. Of these three hurlers, Moore has the highest long-term upside and probably the highest for the balance of this season as well. Today, we’re more than happy to get behind Gaviglio.
The Angels were a fade target of ours this weekend after an emotionally charged four-game series against the Dodgers with the first two games being at Dodger Stadium and the last two being in Anaheim. Both Stadiums were packed solid all four games and there was absolutely a playoff like atmosphere until the final out every night, especially at the Big A. The Angels took two of four from the red-hot Dodgers and did not look a bit out of place. For the Dodgers, it was just another series but for the Angels it was much more. It was a chance to be in the spotlight and take down a monster. The Angels played their hearts out for four games and this is the hangover series. Had the Mariners not been favored last night (they were -126) or if the run-line price (-1½ +132) was higher, we would’ve had them. Still, it was a missed opportunity but we’re not going to miss this one.
Ricky Nolasco opened the series in Los Angeles and was about the least likely pitcher in MLB to beat the then scorching hot Dodgers and shut them out in the process. Over the past five years, no pitcher in baseball has a worse five-year ERA than Nolasco. This season, it’s the same ol’ same ol’ for Nolasco. He’s the vanilla ice cream of starters, as he’s consistently mediocre and never spectacular. He comes in with a 4.86 ERA and 4.77 xERA. His WHIP is 1.43, which isn’t mediocre, it’s awful. His other skills are all mediocre or worse (41% groundball rate, 27/75 BB/K split in 92 innings and 39% balls thrown). Ricky Nolasco is a starter that is always around the plate with pedestrian stuff and that’s not the type of pitcher we want to get behind when he’s favored, especially after he just threw a once a year rare gem.
CHASE DIAMOND
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -110
This game has the 39-41 Rangers at the 35-44 White Sox. I don't think Cole Hamels is 100% in his first start he did not look to good and in his second game back he squares off against Derek Holland. White Sox have won 2 straight games and look for another big win today. White Sox are 6-2 SU against the Rangers lately love the line here. Only 31% are backing the home White Sox love the sharp money here and will be backing the White Sox.
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play on the Rangers over the White Sox.
Texas did everything but win the game last night against Chicago, as the Rangers let a 7-5 lead in the 9th slip up thanks to a bullpen implosion.
The Pale Hose rallied for 3 runs to walk-off an 8-7 winner last night, but I will side with the Rangers to bounce-back in today's meeting against a former teammate Derek Holland.
This will be Holland's first time starting against the team he pitched for for 8 seasons, and with his ERA in the high 5's over his last 3 starts, I expect his former teammates to get some rallies brewing against him this afternoon.
Cole Hamels returned from a 2 month stint on the disabled list and was battered pretty good against the Indians, as he escaped with a no-decision in a 15-9 loss. Look for him to be better against a team he is 1-0 with an under 3 ERA in 3 career starts.
Texas should have won last night, today they do win!
2* TEXAS
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is on the Kansas City Royals in the first game of today's doubleheader against the Minnesota Twins. And in this one, be sure you're listing just Luke Farrell.
The 26-year-old right-hander steps to the hill to make his Major League debut, at Kauffman Stadium. The right-hander is 7-3 with a 3.83 ERA in 13 starts with Triple-A Omaha this season, and has struck out 77 batters while walking 27.
Farrell, the son of Red Sox manager John Farrell, will get the chance to throw in front of family, including his father. And this will be an emotional start for everyone, as his debut comes six years after he needed surgery to remove a non-cancerous tumor in his neck. The tumor returned two years later and had to be removed again.
The Royals bats will come to life in support of the rookie. Following Friday's 8-1 win, the Royals are just one game back of the second-place Twins in the American League Central.
Look for Kansas City to win this one on the strength of Farrell's spectacular debut.
3* ROYALS
Jeff Benton
Going to look for the Over to be the way to go in the Yankees-Astros game on Saturday night with Jordan Montgomery and Francis Martes on the mound.
Montgomery has been a "Steady Eddie" in Joe Girardi's up-and-down rotation, but even with a solid 3.53 ERA that is among the league leaders, the Over has been cashing in more often than not when he twirls. Each of Montgomery's last 4 starts have played Over the total, and while his start back on May 12th at home against the Astros did not land Over the total, Montgomery did allow 4 runs on 8 hits in his 6 innings of work against Houston.
Martes will counter with his 4th start of the season for the injured Houston staff, and 2 of his first 3 starts have ended up landing Over the total. Martes has only worked 16-plus innings this season, and has allowed 10 earned runs to cross.
The last 2 games these teams played in New York in May landed Over the total, and the first one they played this weekend last night also landed Over the total. Add 'em up, that makes 3 straight Overs! Ready for # 4 in a row?
Yankees-Astros land Over on Saturday.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-HOUSTON OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Oakland Athletics over the Atlanta Braves, as the two continue their Interleague clash in Oaktown. And I'm listing Oakland starter Paul Blackburn only in this one.
The 23-year-old right-hander is making his Major League debut, as he steps into the rotation in place of Jharel Cotton, who is battling a blister issue.
This is a kid who has always had to rely on hitting his spots, so working relentlessly on focusing in on the zone has helped. Blackburn, who is 5-6 with a 3.05 ERA in 79.2 innings for Triple-A Nashville this season, hails from California and will have plenty of support in the stands for his big day.
He's shown a knack for preventing run, despite not being a strikeout pitcher. His pitchability and poise on the hill are his strong points. The guy induces outs, and he'll surprise Braves hitters with his average - but effective - arsenal.
Take the A's here and list Blackburn only.
1* ATHLETICS
Jack Brayman
Now on a 14-8 run with my complimentary plays. and my free play for Saturday is going to be on the Minnesota Twins in the second game of a doubleheader against the Kansas City Royals. Be sure you're playing the game involving Minnesota's Felix Jorge, and be sure he is the ONLY pitcher listed on your ticket.
Jorge has been summoned to Kauffman Stadium, as the right-hander has been called up from Double-A Chattanooga to make his Major League debut.
The right-hander is 8-1 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 starts in the Minors, and more recently has a 2.54 ERA with 32 strikeouts and six walks in his last six starts spanning 39 innings.
Jorge is one of the team's top 10 prospects who can hit the low 90s with his fastball. His less-assuming stature allows him to fire at times hitters least expect, and isn't afraid to work in the lower half of the zone, but touching the corners. He induces grounders with outpitches like a change up and late breaking slider.
He'll take advantage today, and prove his worth in the rotation heading into the break.
2* TWINS Game 2