DAVE COKIN
WHITE SOX AT ASTROS
PLAY: WHITE SOX -103
I’m breaking a rule of sorts here. The Astros are hotter than Las Vegas in July, and I generally won’t try to beat a team on such a roll. It’s usually better to play on the surging teams, rather than try fading them.
But Chris Sale is one of those rare pitchers so dominating that when I can get him at a reasonable price, I will frequently get involved. Sale is having quite a year. He’s 13-2, the Pale Hose are 13-3 in his 16 starts, and wait till you get a gander at his numbers against the Astros.
It’s always important to note that pitcher vs. team data is mostly small sample, and with roster turnover from year to year, I try to avoid putting too much stock into these stats for the most part. But Sale’s line against Houston is borderline unbelievable.
41 innings, 23 hits, five runs (two of those unearned), four walks, 56 strikeouts.
I can see Sale having another strong performance at The Maid tonight. The Astros remain a free-swinging team, and that’s putting mildly. Houston hitters have the third-highest K rate among all teams, with only the Brewers and Rays getting struck out on a more frequent basis. Sale is generating fewer swings and misses this season than in the past. That’s by design, as one of his goals for 2016 was to get a bit more economical with his pitch counts, so he could go deeper in games. So while the Sale K rate is not as spectacular this season, it’s still pretty strong and this is a lineup he should match up well against.
There’s still nothing easy about this play. Doug Fister is riding out quality starts. The veteran righty seldom overpowers anyone, but he’s tough when he locates, and Fister is one of the best around when it comes to wriggling out of jams and stranding runners.
The bottom line is this will be one of the few games where I’ll pretty much bypass the team form and just back on the ace on the hill. With the game a virtual pick ’em, I’m on Chris Sale and the White Sox.
Bruce Marshall
NY Mets +168
If not for a series vs. the woeful Reds, the Cubs have lost 8 of their last 9 games, and even the normally-impenetrable Jake Arrieta was shaky in his last start as Cincy roughed him up last Monday. The Mets have some momentum after winning the first two of this weekend set, and the price is too big to overlook capable Bartolo Colon, who hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last seven starts.
Rob Vinciletti
Italy vs. Germany
Play: Under 2
Italy took down Spain 2-0 in their last game and has never lost to Germany in a meaningful game. They are 4-1-1 in the series against them. The Germans are undefeated in this tourney and shook down Slovakia. This will be a far tougher task today. This will be a great game and Italy has a great chance to advance and if they stick to the game plan that worked against Spain they can pull the upset.
Art Aronson
Rockies vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8
The visitors hand the ball to Chad Bettis (6-5, 5.84 ERA) who was rocked for seven runs off 12 hits with three walks over five innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Diamondback on Sunday. Bettis has been particularly poor in this spot all year, sporting a 5.23 ERA on the road and an even worse 2-4, 6.25 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Scott Kazmir (6-3, 4.67) who notched a win vs. the Pirates in his last outing despite giving up four runs off four hits and four walks over five innings. Note that Kazmir owns a pedestrian 4.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. Game-to-game consistency has plagued each of these starters, consider a second look at the OVER in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Angels vs. Red Sox
Play: Angels +153
Edges - Angels: Hector Santiago 6-2 last eight team starts during July, including 3-0 away, and 3.89 ERA away as opposed to 6.92 ERA home this season. Red Sox: Clay Buchholz 1-4 last five overall team starts in this series, and 6-14 last twenty overall home team starts, and 4-7 home career team starts during July. With that look for Buchholz to slip to 2-7 in his team starts at night here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Angels.
Jim Feist
Yankees vs. Padres
Play: Under 7½
New York is not a good offensive team, 23rd in baseball in runs scored, 21st in on base percentage. The Under is 7-2 in Ivan Nova's last 9 interleague starts. New York is also 19-7-2 under the total against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Diego is 28th in on base percentage on offense, but has a decent arm going in Drew Pomeranz (2.76 ERA). Pomeranz (7-7) threw seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits, one walk while striking out six in a 3-0 victory over the Reds on Saturday. He has a .190 batting average against, 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 88 innings. And the Under is 9-2 in Pomeranz's last 11 starts overall.
Matt Josephs
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Play: Detroit -127
Blake Snell makes his fifth start of the season as the Rays continue to host the Tigers. Snell has allowed eight earned runs in 20.3 innings of work. If the southpaw figures out his control issues, he'll be even better. Because of these problems, Snell doesn't go deep in ballgames meaning an awful bullpen comes into play. Tampa's relievers have given up a ton of runs this series. Detroit is hitting around .257 against left-handed starters this season. Justin Verlander has some ugly numbers this season, but should find success against Tampa Bay. He did last July when he held the Rays to one run and four hits in eight innings striking out 10. Entering Friday night, Tampa Bay was hitting .228 against right-handed starters and .233 at home.
Bob Harvey
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8
The St. Louis Cardinals go for a second straight win over the Milwaukee Brewers when the two teams meet tonight at Busch Stadium. Jimmy Nelson and Adam Wainwright, are set to take the hill for their respective clubs.
The Brewers (35-44, 40-39 RL) has lost 11 of its last 16 games and are just 13-24 on the road this season. Ryan Braun and Chris Carter have carried them offensively with Braun hitting in 11 of his last 12 games. Carter crushed his 20th home run of the series last night giving him eight seasons with 20 or more dingers.
The Cardinals (41-38, 42-37 RL) snapped a seven-game home losing streak with Friday’s 7-1 victory over the Brewers. Matt Holliday delivered three RBI’s to help the Redbirds snap their longest Busch Stadium skid since 1983.
Milwaukee starter Jimmy Nelson is 0-5 with a 9.51 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against St. Louis. Nelson suffered through a horrific June, going 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in five starts. He has struggled on the road this season, compiling a 1-3 record and 5.66 ERA in seven away starts. Overall Nelson is 5-6 with a 3.60 ERA)
He’ll face veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright, who is 12-8 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 32 career appearances (25 starts) against Milwaukee. However the veteran right-hander, who has been beset by arm and shoulder injuries is just (6-5, 5.04 ERA)
Big Al
Texas vs. Minnesota
Pick: Texas
Chi Chi Gonzalez may sound more like a professional golfer's name than a baseball player, but the man with that moniker is back in the rotation with the Texas Rangers in his second season in the bigs. Gonzalez had a solid - if not stellar - rookie season with Texas, having gone 4-6 with a 3.90 ERA in 14 games (10 starts) in 2015. His first start of this season last Monday certainly does not instill confidence going into this game today, but that first one was in Yankee Stadium - a place that can be deadly to righthanded pitchers. Gonzalez should have an easier time of it today at Target Field against the Twins. After a very promising rookie season in which he went 5-1 with a 3.10 ERA in 10 starts, LHP Tyler Duffey has taken a step backwards in 2016. So far, Duffey is 3-6 with an ugly 5.59 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his 12 starts covering just under 68 innings. It could get ugly fast for Duffey this afternoon as the Rangers' .294 batting average vs. southpaws is the best number in the American League. The Twins are just 15-25 at home this season while the Rangers are very strong on the road at 23-17.
Jesse Schule
White Sox vs. Astros
Pick: White Sox
The White Sox were blanked 5-0 in Game 1 of this series in Houston Friday, but they came into this series as winners of seven of their last 10. We should see a pitcher's duel here in Game 2, as Chris Sale goes for his 14th win.
Doug Fister will toe the slab for the Astros, and he's having a fine season in his own right. Fister (8-4, 3.36 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-1 loss to the Royals his last time out. He's 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA in six starts at home this season, and he's defeated the White Sox once already this season. He didn't pitch particularly well in that game, giving up three runs on nine hits over 6 1/3 innings.
Chris Sale (13-2, 2.79 ERA) struck out seven while allowing a pair of runs on five hits in eight innings in a 5-2 win over the Blue Jays his last time out. He went the distance, striking out nine and surrendering just one run on four hits in a 2-1 win the last time he faced Houston. He absolutely owns the Astros, holding them to a .197 average over a combined 71 at bats.
The White Sox are 14-3 in Sale's last 17 starts, and 4-1 in his last five starts versus Houston.
JACK JONES
Kansas City Royals -125
After losing Game 1 of this series to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies, I fully expect the Kansas City Royals to bounce back in Game 2 Saturday due to the massive advantage they have on the mound in this one.
Danny Duffy has been the best starter for the Royals this season, going 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in nine starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 1-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in four starts away from home.
Aaron Nola got off to a blistering start this season, but he has cooled off considerably and come back down to reality here of late. Nola is 0-2 with a monstrous 17.36 ERA and 3.323 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up 18 earned runs and 31 base runners over 9 1/3 innings.
Kansas City is 12-2 (+9.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Duffy is 15-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. The Royals are 16-5 in their last 21 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. Philadelphia is 1-7 in its last eight home games.
BRANDON LEE
Cubs / Mets Under 7
Chicago will have their ace Jake Arrieta on the mound and that typically means very few runs for the opposition. Arrieta is poised for a strong start after a less than impressive outing in his last start. He's got a 2.50 ERA in 6 career starts against the Mets and is 8-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 8 road starts. New York counters with veteran Bartolo Colon, who is quietly having a great season. Colon has a 2.91 ERA in 15 starts and comes in with a 1.80 ERA in his last 3 outings. This has a pitchers duel written all over it.
DAVE PRICE
Detroit Tigers -118
The Tampa Bay Rays are just 2-14 in their last 16 games overall. We'll gladly fade them today against the Detroit Tigers, who have the edges on the mound and at the plate. Justin Verlander is 7-6 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.127 WHIP with 107 K's in 104 2/3 innings this season. Verlander is 7-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 14 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay as well. Blake Snell is no more than a fill-in starter for the Rays. He is 1-1 with a 5.20 ERA and 2.656 WHIP in 2 home starts this season, and 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA and 2.153 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Detroit is 21-9 (+9.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Tigers are 20-6 in their last 26 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 0-6 in its last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
JIMMY BOYD
Detroit Tigers -118
Detroit is showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the Rays. The Tigers won yesterday's series opener 10-2 and have now scored 10 runs in each of their last 3 games. Detroit has won 4 straight overall and 8 of their last 11. Tampa Bay on the other hand has lost 14 of their last 16.
The Tigers give the ball to Justin Verlander, who is coming off a ugly start against the Indians, where he gave up 8 runs on 9 hits in 4 2/3 innings. Prior to that Verlander had been pitching very well and I look for him to bounce back in a big way against a Rays offense that is scoring just 3.6 runs/game at home. Verlander is also 7-3 with a 3.49 ERA in 14 career starts against the Rays.
Detroit should be able to stay hot at the plate, as they face off against rookie Blake Snell, who has a 4.11 ERA and 2.153 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Snell is only averaging 5 1/3 innings/start and has walked 10 batters in his last 15 1/3 innings of work.
Tigers are 11-4 in their last 15 after scoring 10 or more runs and 10-0 in their last 10 after a win by 8 or more runs. They are also 21-9 on the season as a favorite of -110 or more and 23-13 in their last 26 road day games.
AARON TOLLER
Cardinals -166
Milwaukee and Jimmy Nelson has struggled giving up a minimum of 4 walks per start over his last 3. St. Louis is hitting the ball well and Wainwright is beginning to pitch the way he is capable of. Give me St. Louis in this one.