Dave Cokin
Nationals -1
Washington is on fire now, with six straight wins, while the Reds have dropped five in a row. Fairly substantial edge on the mound here, as Joe Ross has been adequate while Dan Straily is getting raked lately. So it's a very solid current for setup for the home team. Basically, the check mark goes to the Nationals in everything applicable here, so I'll split the money line and runs line and make it a Nats -1 play.
Bob Balfe
Blue Jays -125
Cleveland just set a record for most wins in a row ever in team history last night as they won a 19 inning thriller. It was a very exciting win for the Tribe, but today they have to wake up early on the road and I just don’t feel like the energy will be there. Toronto is always a great hitting team and I believe will break the Indians streak with a big lopsided win today.
Harry Bondi
LA ANGELS +145 over Boston
Boston starter Clay Buchholz was sent to the bullpen in May because of a 7.00+ ERA, but in late June the struggling Sox had to put him back in the rotation because they were out of viable arms. We have been there to bet against Buchholz in both of those starts and, of course, we've cashed winning tickets both times. Today, we'll gladly take the nice underdog price and wade in again against Buchholz, whose ERA is 7.63 in his last three starts and 6.31 overall. Yes, the Angels are in a serious funk right now, but Boston is 5-10 (-7 UNITS) against left-handed starters this year and we can't pass up this juicy price, or the chance to fade Buchholz again.
Neil The Greek
Yankees at Padres
Play: Padres
Ivan Nova and the Yanks with huge expectations, and to say they haven't lived up to those, would be an understatement. Nova has an ERA over 5, but on the road, he has been awful. He is 2-3 there with an ERA of almost 7. Pomeranz is only 7-7, but it's not because he hasn't pitched well. His ERA is under 3, its just his offense hasn't done much for him. They get it done today.
Hollywood Sports
Chicago at Houston
Pick: Houston
Houston (43-37) has won 13 of their last 16 games at home -- and they have won 5 straight games at home with Fister on the mound. He should fare well against this Chicago team (40-40) that has lost 20 of their last 28 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The White Sox have also lost 14 of their last 19 road games. They do counter with Sale -- but this Houston team has won 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Kansas City Royals -134
Kansas City will try and bounce back from a 4-3 loss last night in Philadelphia with Danny Duffy, who hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts. Duffy gave up two runs and six hits in eight innings his last outing against St. Louis and he has a 2.03 ERA on the road. Aaron Nola has been nothing short of a disaster lately as the Phillies have lost his last four starts by a combined score of 43-19. In those games, Nola has allowed 25 runs (22 earned), 32 hits in just 13 innings and he had a 10.42 ERA in the month of June. The Phils are also on a 1-7 slide at home. The NL East entry is at or near the bottom in every offensive category against left-handers, including a .282 on-base percentage.
CARMINE BIANCO
Italy at Germany
Play: Italy 0.3
Again I'll put my bias aside. I'll be playing and releasing Italy as my free play on Saturday. The came into this tournament with what seemed like a weaker side with questions in their midfield missing 3 starters and a front line with no pure striker but coach Conte has assembled a team that has played some great soccer especially on the back end this tournament. The backline and keeper (all Juventus stars) have not only defended well but have help generate from the backline out a quicker pace through midfield. They'll meet a Germany side that came in as co favorites with France and have played clinical soccer and have done it well throughout the tournament. Expect a tight game with both sides looking for possession and to control midfield. With two quality keepers and not numerous chances expected we could see a game that goes to extra time. I'll take the underdogs here because of those reasons and look for an Italy victory as well.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -116
Tyler Duffey is the product of Minnesota's player developmental program as the fifth-round pick in 2012 was converted into a starter in the Minors. Duffey finished last season with nine outstanding starts for the Twins, posting a 2.25 ERA, 52 strikeouts in 56 innings and a .653 OPS against. Overall, the 25-year-old finished his Major League debut with a 3.10 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.64 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA in 58.0 innings of work.
This season, Duffey has excelled in afternoon games, going 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 7 starts. He also faces a Texas lineup that is averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road (.249 AVG.; .296 OBP; .698 OPS). And, while many bettors will be dissuaded by Duffey's 5.59 ERA in 2016, he has been victimized by a .327 BABIP and 62.8% LOB%. Duffey owns a 4.49 FIP and 3.94 SIERA this season, together with a 19.1% K%, 4.7% BB% and a 14.4% K-BB%.
Duffey is also coming off his best outing of his Major League career, lasting a season-long eight innings against the Yankees on Sunday, allowing one run on two hits. Meanwhile, Texas recalled right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez from Triple-A to take injured Colby Lewis' spot in the rotation. The 24-year-old last just five innings against the Yankees on Monday, yielding 5 runs on ten hits.
Gonzalez lacks the skill set to survive in the Majors. Indeed, the best strikeout minus walk rate he has ever garnered at any level was 13% in 73.1 Double-A innings in 2014. As pointed out by Fangraphs.com, among pitchers with 60 or more innings, Gonzalez posted the lowest strikeout rate minus walk rate. He was also the only pitcher to post a NEGATIVE K%-BB% (-1%). In 80.1 innings at Triple-A this season, Gonzalez posted a 5.04 ERA with a 2.16 K/BB rate.
Scott Rickenbach
Minnesota vs Texas
Play: Over 8.5
Chi Chi Gonzalez gets the start for the Rangers and he had a 6.03 ERA from July onward last season. This season he has made one start since being called up from the minors and he got rocked for 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 innings of work against the Yankees last week. In the minors this season he was 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA and Gonzalez was getting hit at a .285 clip. Last season in the minors he got hit at a .280 clip. Getting out major league hitters is even tougher than AAA hitters! The Twins will counter with Tyler Duffey who is off of a strong start but whom previously gave up 36 earned runs in his last 35 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 7 starts. He was consistently bad too as he allowed at least 4 earned runs in every start and Duffey gave up at least 5 earned runs in 5 of the 7 starts. In other words, don’t put too much weight into the one good start he just had because it was preceded by 7 straight bad ones. By the way, NONE of those 7 starts stayed under the total! The over is 28-12 (70%) this season in Twins home games and that is even after a rare low-scoring 3-2 loss in Minnesota last night. This afternoon, the Twins bats and Rangers bats quickly come back to life as they take on subpar pitching!
Greg Shaker
Padres TT Over 3.5
We have this as a Bargain Number based on a number of factors and not limited to the way the Yankee Starter is throwing the ball right now. OVER is 8-0 the last 8 played at Petco and yes that is quite unusual for this park history-wise. The fact is the Padres starters have not been so Spiffy (Pomeranz not included) and the reason why I'm playing the TT only as Padres Bats HAVE been Spiffy of late. This team has scored 4.23 times per 9 this season 4.21 times here at home, and most recently (The Last 10) 6.24 Times Per 9. The Yankee Pen Sports BAD Bullpen Numbers when they travel and Nova has been PISS Poor of late. Easy Choice here..
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Miami Marlins against the Atlanta Braves. And at deadline, there is no price on the game because they couldn't account for Atlanta's Lucas Harrell, who steps in to pitch after Bud Norris was traded to the Dodgers on Thursday.
Harrell's last Major League start was with the Astros on April 15, 2014. He had a 2-1 record and a 2.81 ERA in nine games with Triple-A Gwinnett, and to get thrown into the fire like this is asking a lot, considering who he is pitching against.
I like Miami's Jose Fernandez, who was impressive against the powerful and Major League-leading Chicago Cubs. He struck out 13, one shy of his career high, and allowed one run through seven innings. He carries 13.12 strikeouts per nine innings into Atlanta, and should have no trouble neutralizing the lineup.
Now, in the event this line is anywhere from $1.60 and higher, play it on the Run Line, and be sure Fernandez and Harrell are the auto-listed pitchers. If it is $1.55 or lower, play it straight and list both.
2* MIAMI
Scott Delaney
Seriously, how good are the Washington Nationals?
The two hottest teams in baseball right now are the Nationals and Cleveland Indians. Imagine that for a World Series, right? I can hear the Chicago Cubs fans now.
Well, the Nats are doing all the right things, as they've turned back a Reds team that came into this series 7-2 against Washington the last two seasons. That included two of three in a June 3-5 series at Great American Ball Park. But the Nats have taken the first two games, including last night's extra-inning marathon that was sure to deflate the Reds' will.
The Reds are mired in a five-game losing streak and have lost 10 of 12 overall after last night's loss. Plus, Cincinnati is 18-27 on the road this season.
But in Washington's last five games, it has scored 36 runs, on 50 hits and 28 walks. They also have 16 extra basehits, including five home runs. Washington finished with the sixth best batting average in June, .276, while its 149 runs scored ranked fifth in June.
The Reds don't have the offense to counter that.
Washington rolls tonight.
5* NATIONALS -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 76-69 run with free picks: Chicago at N.Y. METS (+160)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The New York Mets have taken the first two of this four-game series with the Chicago Cubs. The Mets' stagnant offense has suddenly come alive, as they carry momentum from a 10-2 rout last night, into this game today. And I think this is pure value with the underdog Mets and Bartolo Colon over Jake Arrieta.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key in this one is Arrieta's recent demise. His struggles continued versus the Reds, as he allowed a season-high five runs and five walks over five innings. While the right-hander still has a 2.10 ERA, he's walked 20 in his last 40 innings, and four of the five runs he allowed Monday reached on a walk.
BOTTOM LINE is - I'd rather invest in Colon, who has only faced the Cubs once since joining the Mets, but blanked them over seven innings of a game last July. The 43-year-old is in after limiting the Braves to one run and six hits over seven innings. He was tagged with his first loss since May 18, so he'll be fired up for this one.
4* N.Y. METS
Brad Wilton
Saturday's free play is all predicated on Boston starter Clay Buchholz serving them up, and getting roundly booed as he exits the rubber from Fenway Park this Saturday night.
Buchholz in a word has been, dreadful!
He stands at 3-8 with a 5.90 ERA for the season, and his ERA is 7.63 for his last 3 efforts. He was just shellacked by the Rangers in his last trip to the hill, and I am sure the Fenway faithful are just waiting for that first run to cross so they can give him an earful. Believe me, it will happen!
As for Hector Santiago, 2 of his last 3 starts have landed Over the total, and 10 of his 16 starts overall this season have also landed Over the total.
Last night's series opener just fell shy of going Over the total, but Boston is still 6-3 Over the total in their last 9 games played, and the Over in the series has now cashed in 2 of the last 3 meetings.
Boo-birds out in force, and Buchholz hears them all.
Halos-BoSox Over the total.
4* L.A. ANGELS-BOSTON OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Yankees and Padres to play another Over.
Last night these teams opened their weekend series with 13 combined runs, as New York made it a 3-1-1 Over run their last 5 games, and an overall Over run of 9-3-1 their last 13 games played.
As for San Diego, their current homestand has seen 18, 18, and 13 runs score. All 3 games landing Over the total.
Ivan Nova will start for the Yankees, and all he has done over his last 3 starts is compile an ERA of 9. In fact, Nova has allowed 4 runs or more in 3 straight and 6 of his last 7 overall starts! The Over is 4-2-1 in those 7 starts.
Drew Pomeranz is fresh off 7 scoreless innings pitched at Cincinnati, but his previous 3 starts saw 11 runs score in 16 innings pitched.
I say we see just enough offensive action to see another Over at Petco Park.
Yankees-Padres Over the total.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-SAN DIEGO OVER