MIKE LUNDIN
Royals vs. Phillies
Play: Royals -125
The Kansas City Royals had won four of five prior to a 4-3 defeat to the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday. I like them to bounce back with a win today behind Danny Duffy.
Duffy (3-1, 3.24 ERA) has been solid since joining the rotation in mid-May. He matched his career high of eight innings on Monday while holding the Cardinals to a pair of runs on six hits with eight strikeouts. Duffy has a 2.03 ERA in 13 appearances (four starts) on the road this season. We can also note that the Phillies are 1-4 in their last five home games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Phillies turn to the struggling Aaron Nola (5-7, 4.45). Nola is 0-3 with a bloated 15.23 ERA in his last four starts and he was tagged with five runs on 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings at San Francisco his last time out. He's 2-5 with a 4.83 ERA in seven starts home at Citizens Bank Park.
The umpire situation should favor KC as well with the Royals 7-1 in their last eight games with Dan Bellino behind home plate and the road team 8-3 in Bellino's last 11 games. Phillies are 3-9 in their last 12 games following a win, and I think they'll struggle to record a back-to-back win today.
RAY MONOHAN
Cubs / Mets Under 7
Yesterday we cashed on the Over as a free winner in the Cubs vs. Mets game, but today the UNDER has the value. Both starting pitchers have been extremely dominant this season, as they hold low ERAs. Jake Arrieta goes for the Cubs and in 5 career starts against New York, Arrieta has been stellar. He's gone 2-1 with a superb ERA of 1.82.
Bartolo Colon counters for the Mets as he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start in quite some time. Colon has seen the Cubs twice in his career, allowing only 2 runs in 14.0 innings of work.
Some trends to consider. Under is 3-1-1 in Arrietas last 5 starts vs. Mets. Under is 9-4-2 in the last 15 meetings.
Look for both pitchers to keep the offenses off balances, as runs are at a premium here in this one.
ASA
Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9
With yesterday's marathon game going 19 innings, neither bullpen is in very good shape here. Considering that Zach McAllister threw 27 pitches in yesterday's game and is now being asked to start in what could end up being a short outing for he and a number of other "tired" Indians arms, we like the over here. Cleveland is likely to give up a lot of runs but the Indians have won 14 straight games so they should also get their fair share of runs in this one. The Blue Jays are starting Marco Estrada who has only lasted longer than 6 innings once in his last 4 starts. The Jays weary bullpen will be tested too in this one. Estrada has given up at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. We'll take the OVER in the Toronto Blue Jays game early Saturday afternoon.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
White Sox -108
Left-hander Chris Sale goes for his major league-leading 14th victory when the visiting Chicago White Sox continue a three-game series against the Houston Astros this afternoon. Sale has won his last four starts to move within one victory of his highest total since posting a career-high 17 wins in 2012. He dominated the Astros with a complete-game gem on May 19 to improve to 4-1 with a razor-thin 0.66 ERA in five starts against them. Sale, also owns a 6-1 record and 1.99 ERA in eight road starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +136 over OAKLAND
Chad Kuhl pitched five innings and was credited with the win last Sunday in a 4-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kuhl allowed three runs and four hits in five innings after getting called up from Class AAA Indianapolis before the game. Kuhl struck out five and walked four. The walks were a little troubling, but a nice debut by Kuhl, especially when you consider it was against Clayton Kershaw. He was profiled in our Call-ups section here. The kid looked good in a high profile game that was featured on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball and is certainly worth another look here.
Rich Hill has a 2.25 ERA after 11 starts. Last year, Rich Hill pitched a total of 29 innings for the Red Sox and posted a 1.55 ERA. Rich Hill is 36-years-old. Oh, to be a lefty and blessed with infinite opportunities. After years of chronically terrible control, Hill changed his arm slot last summer and actually found something (double-digit K’s vL and vR in four Sept starts). He has 74 K’s in 64 innings this year. It would be easy to call all of it a blip, but it's just enough to hold our attention when he’s being offered a price. Pitching for the A’s and as a favorite in this range against the undervalued Pirates, we’re not interested. Hill is coming off the DL to make this start, his first since May 29, which does not add to his appeal. He'll also be on a pitch count.
Colorado +167 over LOS ANGELES
Scott Kazmir has 91 K’s in 89 innings, which puts him in elite company in the K-rate department. However, when you take away Kazmir’s strikeout ability, the overall picture is ugly. The key to beating Kazmir is to just stay within a run or two because he gets progressively worse as the game wears on mostly due to a steady deterioration of strikeouts. Kazmir has 11.6 K’s/9 the first time through the order, 7.7 the second time and 5.6 the third time. He also has a WHIP (1.32) above our threshold of acceptability. Kazmir’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.60. He’s also walked 34 batters overall and 13 batters over his past 25 innings. What we have here with Kazmir is a rising xERA trend and a big second half skills erosion last year that appears on the brink of happening again. Kazmir is now priced like an elite starter when he’s nothing of the sort. Win or lose, Scott Kazmir cannot be priced in this range.
We keep insisting that luck plays a huge roll in the outcome of games and anyone that watched Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins pitching for the Blue Jays yesterday know exactly what we mean. Line drives are hit right at people. Other times they’re in the gap. Other times they are one inch above a leaping middle infielder. Soft popups fall in. Other times they are one row foul in the stands. Wind gusts matter. So when we discuss strand rates, hit rates, and hr/f rates, we are discussing the three most luck-driven stats in baseball. A strand rate is not a skill and if you need further proof, look up strand rates over the past decade. Every year the leaderboard is different. There is no consistency whatsoever from any pitcher. In regards to strand rates, pitchers are either lucky, league average or unlucky. The same goes for hit rates and hr/f rates.
Scott Kazmir is priced in this range because Chad Bettis has an ugly near-6 ERA after 16 starts. That said, a 33% hit%, 63% strand %, and 18% hr/f have all teamed to torpedo his stats. Bettis actually owns some very strong skills that keep getting better. He has an elite 55% groundball rate. His first-pitch strike rate is elite at 73%. Bettis is also striking out more batters and has a nifty 5/23 BB/K split over his last 25 frames. Bettis is a pitcher that missed a month last year but returned to throw eight dominant starts in nine attempts. He’s trending in the right direction and is very worthy of backing at prices like this. Big overlay.
Vegas Butcher
Kansas City Royals -131
Duffy against an offense that ranks 30th against lefties? Probably not a bad idea to have some shares in this one. So far this season Duffy is a top-30 pitcher, with a 30% K-rate, miniscule 6% BB-rate, and excellent ratios. The issue for him has been a 1.9 HR/9 rate, thus making hi 3.3 ERA higher than it would be otherwise. Phillies can’t hit lefties though, so expect a strong outing from Duffy isn’t very hard. On the other side, we have a pitcher in Nola who is going through a very rough patch. In his last 4 starts he’s allowed 25 runs in only 13 innings, failing to get through the 4th in any of them. His fastball has been decreasing in velocity, bottoming out at 89 MPH in his last appearance, so I’m wondering if there’s an injury issue here. Regardless, I’ll grab the World Champs at these odds in this very favorable matchup for them.