Free Picks for Saturday, July 22nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT TWINS
PLAY: OVER 10.5
I like this game to be high scoring. Conditions will be favorable to the offenses, and the starting pitching matchup is the definition of mediocre with Zimmermann opposing Gibson.
These are also two pretty weak bullpens, despite the fact the relievers for both teams were highly effective on Friday night. But each pen also had to work multiple innings so a good chance we see some down the stretch runs in this game.
It’s a high Total, which figures considering the lack of quality on the mound here, but I still see this as a good opportunity to cash a ticket on the Over.
Scott Rickenbach
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Under 8½
The Blue Jays Marcus Stroman has been on a fantastic run. The Toronto right-hander has given up a total of only 3 earned runs in his last 4 starts. Keep in mind, on the season, Stroman has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts! Danny Salazar gets the start for the Indians here. The right-hander has been out since late May but the fireballer is ready to go here. This guy piles up the strikeouts. Salazar has fanned 73 in 52 and 1/3 innings this season. Also, the right-hander is now healthy again and, keep in mind, he had struck out 69 in his first 47 innings this season! The Blue Jays are 10-3 to the under in Saturday games this season and Toronto had averaged just 3 runs per game in their 5 games prior to Thursday's upset win at Boston. Stroman has a 2.13 ERA in 4 career starts against the Indians and all 4 stayed under the total. Look for that under mark to reach a perfect 5-0 with another pitchers duel in this one Saturday. Cleveland entered Friday's action having gone 35-22 to the under in night games and 28-18 to the under in games against teams with a losing record this season. Also the under is 11-5 in Indians Saturday games this year. Look for more of the same this Saturday for both clubs!
Alex Smart
Oakland at New York
Play: Oakland -104
As starting hurler Manaea has lasted at least seven innings in each of this three starts .He owns a 2.67 ERA over his last four starts while allowing just one home run in 27 innings of top tier work, and matches up very well vs the NY Mets batting order. Meanwhile, Mets starter Wheeler has dropped five straight decisions and operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum as is evident by recording a 10.13 ERA during the above mentioned negative run. Needless to say from a pitching perspective that the As have the edge here on a value line.
MLB team like the As - lower tier offensive team - scoring 4.4 runs/game or less on the season (AL) against opponent allowing 5.0 or more runs/game on the season (NL) are a long term profitable side to back as their record clicks in at 174-127 dating back 20 seasons, for a .578 win rate with dime players making more than $47980.00 in profits backing this trend. Also over the same time period MLB Home teams like the Mets - good NL offensive team (4.7 runs/game or more ) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities. are 23-50 for a go against conversion rate of 69% for bettors.
Brandon Lee
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Over 10
I had a premium play on the OVER 10.5 in Friday's series opener between these two teams and the two teams had already eclipsed the mark before the 6th inning. As I explained in the analysis of that pick. The extremely hot conditions are brutal for pitching and great for hitting. It's going to be just as hot on Saturday, where the heat index is expected to be right at 100 degrees the entire game. To make it even better, the pitching matchup is even worse. The White Sox will send out Mike Pelfrey who as a 6.92 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in his last 3 starts and the Royals will give the rock to Jason Vargas, who has a 7.98 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Ray Monohan
Yankees vs. Mariners
Play: Over 8½
The New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners face off on Saturday, and with two pitchers who have the tendency to give up their fair share of runs the over has good value. On the mound for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka who has struggled this year. He comes into this game with a 7-9 record an an ERA over five. In his last two starts he has given up a total of eight runs and that resulted in two losses for the team. On the mound for the Mariners is Ariel Miranda who comes into this game really struggling. He has only gone 10.2 innings in his last two starts and has given up 11 runs. He is walking too many guys right now and they are turning into runs. Some trends to note. Over is 9-2-1 in Tanakas last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Over is 3-1-1 in Mirandas last 5 starts on grass.
Scott Spreitzer
Astros vs. Orioles
Play: Astros -128
Tillman has been a disaster and we expect the Astros to make the righthander pay at the plate in this one. Houston enters ranked #1 in MLB in runs scored per game, team batting average, OPS, and home runs! This is not the lineup to get healthy against, when you own a 7+ ERA, as Tillman does. We played Houston last night and took an 8-2 lead into the 9th before the Orioles made a valiant effort, before falling short, 8-7. We expect tonight's free play on Houston to start the same and finish without the late inning stress. The Astros are on a 14-3 run in head-to-head meetings with Baltimore and they're on a 13-3 run when McHugh starts against a team with a losing record.
Marc Lawrence
St Louis vs. Chicago
Play: St Louis +154
Edges - Cardinals: Wainwright 12-1 last 13 team starts during July, including 9-0 the last nine; and 11-3 last 14 team starts in this series, including 4-1 last 5 games here… Cubs: Lester 4-6 last 10 overall team starts versus St. Louis. With Wainwright in strong KW form with 18 Ks and 3 BBS his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees vs. Mariners
Play: Yankees -127
I really like the value here with New York as a short road favorite with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound for the Yankees and Seattle countering with Ariel Miranda. Tanaka comes into this game sitting at 7-9 with an ugly 5.33 ERA and 1.350 WHIP over 19 starts. The advanced metrics suggest he's much better than the numbers indicate and I'm willing to roll the dice with him in this one. Tanaka has been strong of late. He's pitched at least 6 innings an allowed 3 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. It doesn't hurt that he's 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Mariners.
Miranda's 3.23 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in 9 home starts is keeping this line from being a lot more. My focus is on his current form. He allowed 6 runs in 5 innings at home against the Royals in his final start before the break and in gave up 5 runs in 5 2/3 innings in his first start back.
Cappers Club
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Under 9
This one has the potential to be a low scoring game.
Both offenses see starting pitchers who have been solid as of late.
LH Brent Suter goes for the Brewers and he sits with an ERA of just 3.09 this season. The LH is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA over his last 3 starts since being entered into the rotation.
On the other side of things RH Jeremy Hellickson counters. He continues to pitch with a chip on his shoulder, especially as of late. Hellickson is likely to be traded at the deadline, as his value continues to rise with his performance. This is a big start for him as the deadline continues to get closer and closer.
Some trends to note. Under is 6-1-2 in Hellicksons last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-0 in Suters last 5 starts overall.
Teddy Davis
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Blue Jays +124
The Blue Jays just got destroyed yesterday losing 13-3. I see a nice bounce back fro mthem today with a red hot pitcher in Stroman. Prior to the Indians winning yesterday they had lost 6 of 7 games. Salazar is a good pitcher but quite frankly his numbers dont match up this year.
He is 3-5 in 10 starts with a 5.50 ERA. He is just 1-3 at home with a 5.16 ERA. He doesn't have the best numbers either facing the Blue Jays with a 4.58 career ERA. Stroman has pitched very well against the Tribe with a career 2.13 ERA. Indians are getting way to much respect here tonight!
MMA OddsBreaker
Perez vs. Wade
Play: Perez
I think this matchup is a lot closer than the betting odds currently suggest, so I see quite a bit of value in Perez at his current offering underdog price tag of +245. This is a rematch of a bout Wade won by Split Decision, and I would not say Wade has gone on to become a world beater since that fight to warrant a -300 betting line. At the current odds, I do believe Perez is the right side for a wager in what should be a closely contested battle.
Zack Cimini
Toronto vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
Saturday, the Indians get an important piece back to their staff with Danny Salazar. He’ll look to build off of yesterday’s lopsided win over the Blue Jays. Even with expected rust from Salazar oddsmakers aren’t fooled even against the Blue Jays top ace in Marcus Stroman. Grab the home value on the Indians.
Ben Burns
Yankees vs. Mariners
Pick: Over 8.5
The Yanks turn to Masahiro Tanaka (7-9, 5.33 ERA) who gave up three earned runs over seven innings in a loss to Boston on Sunday. It was his third straight loss. Note that Tanaka has consistently been at his worst on the road as well by going 3-5 with a 5.88 ERA. Seattle counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.35) who comes in off consecutive poor outings. Miranda has been hit or miss of late and owns a pedestrian 4.11 ERA in all “night” games this season. Two starters with more questions than answers collide in this one, making the “over” a very legitimate investment opportunity.
Brandon Shively
Detroit vs. Minnesota
Pick: Over 10.5
Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Twins. Jordan Zimmermann is on the mound for the Tigers. Both of these guys have had terrible seasons, and I see both offenses getting a lot of guys on base here. Neither pitcher is good at pitching deep into the game, and these are two of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. Even if there aren't a lot of runs early, there should be plenty of shots to score late.
The weather will help here with high 80's and wind blowing out to center at about 10 mph. Look for a lot of runs.