Jim Feist
White Sox at Royals
Pick: Under
The Chicago White Sox are #23 in runs scored, 7-1 under the total away against a left-handed starter. The Kansas City Royals are in a pennant race, #14 in runs allowed, tops in defense with the fewest errors allowed. The offense, though, is awful, bottom 3 in runs scored and on base percentage. Jason Vargas (12-4, 3.06 ERA) throws strikes and is having a strong campaign. The Under is 10-4 in Vargas' last 14 home starts.
Will Rogers
Oakland at New York
Play: New York
The set-up: The New York Mets made it three straight wins with their 7-5 victory in Friday night's opener of a three-game home series against the A's. Michael Conforto had two HRs in the win and is 8-for-19 with three HRs and two during a five-game hitting streak and is batting .303 with 12 HRs at Cti Field this year. The Mets are just 44-50 on the season (10 games behind in the race for the second National League wild card) and are expected to be sellers with the July 31 trade deadline looming. The 43-53 A's have lost three in a row to fall 7 1/2 games behind in the second wild-card race in the AL.
The pitching matchup: Sean Manaea (8-5 & 3.68 ERA) gets the start for Oakland and Zack Wheeler (3-7 & 4.98 ERA) for New York. Manaea has lasted at least seven innings in each of this three starts in July and picked up the win after allowing two runs in seven innings against Cleveland on Sunday. He owns a 2.67 ERA over his last four starts (team is just 2-2) while allowing just one HR in 27 innings. He has never faced the Mets. Wheeler gave up four runs over 5 1/3 innings of a 6-3 loss to St. Louis on Monday and has dropped five straight decisions. He has allowed seven HRs over his last five outings and owns an ERA of 10.13 ERA in that stretch (Mets are 1-4). Wheeler is 1-1 with a 9.39 ERA in two career starts against Oakland.
The pick: Hard to make a strong case for the Mets based just on Wheeler but the A's are a woeful 15-30 on the road, getting outscored 5.33-to-3.89 RPG. I say the Mets win their fourth in a row.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +124 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Padres have taken the first two games of this series and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going here. They fell behind 4-0 last night in the first inning, blew a three run lead in the ninth and then scored three times in extra winnings to finally win it, 12-9. The Madison Bumgarner dirt bike accident sort of captures the Giants season in a single frame. Johnny Cueto has gone off the rails. Brandon Crawford hasn't been himself. The general vibe around the Giants is that it might be time to break up the band—or at least to let that band be broken up naturally. It appears as though the entire group is waiting for something to happen at the deadline and now the Giants will send the struggling Matt Moore to the mound.
In 105 innings, Moore has a weak BB/K split of 42/87. His 5.87 ERA is right in line with his 5.41 xERA. Hitters are making more contact than ever against the Giants’ southpaw, which has led to unsightly rate stats and a seemingly unsustainable .347 BABIP. His 36%/23%/41% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates reveal just how volatile Moore is and his once mid-90s mph velocity is still missing in action. Moore’s xERA over his last four starts covering 20 innings is 6.00. He’s also walked 10 batters over that span.
Luis Perdomo not only pitches for the unpopular Padres, he owns an ugly 4.94 ERA and 1.53 WHIP after 16 starts, leaving him unowned in many fantasy leagues and also very much undervalued ion the market. However, Perdomo owns a solid skill foundation, driven in large part by a steep groundball tilt (67%). He's dominant against righties and the Giants will send five righties and four lefties (Span, Crawford, Belt, Panik) to face him here. A tweak against righties would help Perdomo consolidate his skills into better results but this kid has filthy stuff and his 3.85 xERA and his age strongly suggest better days are ahead. Pitching for the upstart Papas, who are in a much better state of mind than the Giants, this pup is live again today.
Pittsburgh -1½ +195 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
17-25 + 24.15 units
ANDREW GOLD
Tigers vs. Twins
Play: Over 10½
This is going to look like a very high total especially since the Twins have gone under 6 straight games. The pitching match up itself is just terrible.
Zimmermann has a 5.58 ERA on the year and has been even worse on the road with a 1-4 record and 6.29 ERA. Gibson is exactly lighting it up either right now with a 6.29 ERA on the year and a 7.20 ERA at home.
These two teams should have no problem scoring runs in bunches here tonight
DOC'S SPORTS
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Play: Under 8½
The Chicago Cubs made an aggressive move in acquiring Jose Quintana a few weeks before the trade deadline, and it started paying dividends immediately. Quintana dominated the Orioles lineup in his Cubs debut with seven scoreless innings to go along with 12 strikeouts and no walks. National League hitters haven’t seen much of Quintana and that should work to his advantage the first time teams see him. The Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright hasn’t been good this season but he’s been much better of late. The Cubs have several hitters struggling, so I don’t expect to see an explosion on Saturday. This one should stay low scoring, so take the UNDER in our Saturday Free Play selection. Doc’s is looking forward to a big second half.
JACK JONES
Kansas City Royals -1.5 +115
The Chicago White Sox are in full-blown rebuild mode right now. It is showing in their play of late after trading away several of their best players. The White Sox are 0-7 in their last seven games overall to drop to 38-55 on the season.
The Kansas City Royals are fighting to win the AL Central as they are right in the thick of the race with the Indians and Twins. Jason Vargas has been their best starter this season, going 12-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 18 starts, including 7-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 10 home starts.
Mike Pelfrey has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past handful of seasons. He is 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.410 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in his last three starts. He is also 1-5 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.869 WHIP in nine career starts against Kansas City.
The Royals are 10-1 in home games after batting .333 or better over a 3-game span over the last two seasons. The White Sox are 10-25 in their last 35 road games. The Royals are 21-7 in Vargas' last 28 starts overall, including 13-3 in his last 16 home starts.
Bob Balfe
Brewers -115
The Phillies have been on a mini roll as of late and the Brewers have been awful in the last week of play. I expect this trend to reverse itself because Philadelphia is just no a good baseball team and sooner or later the Brewers are going to start generating runs again. Brent Suter has looked decent in his light work this year. None of the Phillies batters have yet faced him so that advantage goes to the pitcher.
Antony Dinero
Houston at Baltimore
Play: Houston -117
The Astros will get pitcher Collin McHugh back in the rotation for the first time all season. Although he may have to overcome some nervous energy against a strong Orioles lineup, going up against Chris Tillman should aid his cause. Veteran Birds starter Tillman has had a disastrous 2017 and should struggle against the best lineup in the game.
Bruce Marshall
Braves at Dodgers
Pick: Braves
The Dodgers have suddenly cooled off upon their return home, throttled the past two nights by the Braves by the combined score of 18-6. No real knocks on Dodger starter Rich Hill, but at this price willing to give a look to resurgent Atlanta and Julio Teheran, who has three excellent starts in a row, allowing 4 runs and 12 hits over 17 1/3 IP in that span.
HANDICAPPERS HUB
Braves vs. Dodgers
Play: Braves +233
As I said, Teheran is 6-0 with a 2.53 ERA on the road this season and the Braves offense is averaging 5.3 runs per game against left handed starters - making this very attractive and showing tremendous value. Rich Hill is just 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA at home this season and I look for the Braves to get to him and Teheran to have a great start for a huge money line dog Winner!
MARK FRANCO
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Over 10½
The Arizona Diamondbacks hope to have their newest acquisition back in the lineup Saturday, when they host the Washington Nationals for the middle contest of their three-game series. J.D. Martinez, who was obtained Tuesday from Detroit, has missed two straight contests with a left hand contusion he suffered in his debut with Arizona on Wednesday.
Roark is coming off his first win since June 4, a triumph at Cincinnati on Sunday in which he gave up three unearned runs on four hits and three walks over six innings. The victory followed a five-inning relief stint against Atlanta on July 9, when the 30-year-old native of Illinois yielded three runs and four hits. Roark surrendered four runs over six frames on May 2 to fall to 1-2 in eight career appearances (five starts) versus Arizona.
Banda will be summoned from Triple-A Reno to make his major-league debut. The 23-year-old Texan has made 18 starts for the Aces this season, going 7-5 with a 5.08 ERA and 93 strikeouts against 43 walks in 101 innings. Banda, who was drafted by Arizona in 2011 but did not sign with the club, was acquired from Milwaukee in July 2014 in a deal for Gerardo Parra.
Over is 6-1-1 in Roarks last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 16-6-2 in Diamondbacks last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
DAVE PRICE
Padres vs. Giants
Play: Padres
For the first time in years, the San Diego Padres are actually better than the San Francisco Giants this season. The Padres have won as +180 and +150 dogs in the first two games of this series against the Giants. Now they are sizable dogs again and shouldn't be. Luis Perdomo has held his own this season and has been especially effective against the Giants. He is 1-0 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco. Matt Moore is having a forgettable season at 3-10 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 19 starts. San Francisco is 2-14 revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 2-8 in Moore's last 10 starts, including 0-5 in his last 5 home starts.
JOHN MARTIN
Houston at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore +112
The Baltimore Orioles are 4-1 in their last five games overall and have scored a total of 38 runs in their last four contests for an average of 9.5 runs per game. They should get after Collin McHugh, who is making his 2017 debut and will be on a pitch count in his first start back from the disabled list. McHugh has posted a 6.18 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in five previous starts against the Orioles. Chris Tillman has posted a 3.89 ERA in six previous starts against the Astros. And Tillman is coming off two straight quality starts in which he has allowed just 3 earned runs in 11 innings. Baltimore is 16-3 after a 5-game span with an OBP of .375 or better over the last three seasons. The Orioles are 17-8 in Tillman's last 25 home starts.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Philadelphia Phillies, over the slumping Milwaukee Brewers, who are mired in a season-worst six game losing streak. During this skid, the National League Central leaders have scored a measly 12 runs.
The Brewers' lead is down to one game over the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs, who are putting the pressure on Milwaukee.
The line is pure value, even with a scrub team like the Phillies, who are sitting in last place in the National League East. Though they're 17-25 at home, they've won three in a row after a 6-1 win over Milwaukee, which has lost seven of 10.
Take Philly tonight and don't list the pitchers.
5* PHILLIES
Brad Wilton
My Saturday comp play is the Pirates in the dog role over the Rockies.
Pittsburgh is on a roll, winners of 6 in a row, and 12 of their last 14! Hard to buck the run the Bucs are on, as they opened their series in Denver last night with a big 13-5 win over the Rockies who had won their previous 4 games.
The Pirates are 18-6 the last 24 series meetings with the Rockies, and they have also won 9 of their last 10 played at Coors Field!
Let's roll with Chad Kuhl over German Marquez in this spot, as Kuhl has turned in a 1-0 mark over his last 3 with a 2.87 ERA, and the Pirates have won all 3 of those starts.
Marquez has also been pitching well, going 2-0 for his last 3 starts, but his ERA is slightly higher at 4.19.
Stick with the red-hot Pirates tonight.
3* PITTSBURGH