Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I'm not listing pitchers.
Forget about Rich Hill and Julio Teheran, and think about this, the Braves are looking for their third straight win over a Dodgers team - the best team in baseball - that had won 11 consecutive games before Atlanta got to town.
The Braves have won seven of their past nine road games, and will give the Dodgers hell tonight. The value is playing this game at a big price. Take the pup.
4* BRAVES
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Boston Red Sox, over the Angels of Anaheim, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starters: David Price and JC Ramirez.
Price is 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 10 starts since being activated May 29, including a gem in his last trip to the bump, eight scoreless innings against the New York Yankees. That should motivate him for this revenge outing, as one of those two losses during this streak came at the hands of these Angels, with Ramirez on the hill.
Price, who is 5-6 with a 3.24 ERA and one shutout in 14 career starts against the Angels, threw a quality start against the Halos in Beantown on June 24, allowing just two earned runs over six innings. But he still took the L, while Ramirez held the Red Sox to one run and four hits in six innings of a 6-3 Angels win.
This one is about revenge for Boston's ace.
3* RED SOX
Jeff Benton
The Yankees and Mariners are now 10-1-1 Under in their last 12 series meetings, and the Under now stands at 16-4 the last 20 series meetings at Safeco Field!
New York is now on a 10-1 Under clip their last 11, while the Mariners are at 8-2 Under in their last 10 games.
Masahiro Tanaka has had a few more good trips then bad trips to the hill of late, and the Under has cashed in his last pair of starts, and is 4-1-1 over his last 6 overall.
Ariel Miranda has been hit hard his last pair of trips to the mound, but the Under is 4-1-1 his last 6 home starts at Safeco Field.
Going to roll with the series trends that say to stay Low at Safeco on Saturday.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-SEATTLE UNDER
The Prez
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Houston Astros -117
Houston and Baltimore play game two of their three game set and it features the return of Astros right-hander Collin McHugh. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Houston’s righty, Collin McHugh, has missed all 93 games this season with a posterior impingement in his throwing elbow and will oppose Baltimore’s RH Chris Tillman (1-5, 7.20).
McHugh’s return to the Astros’ rotation sends Joe Musgrove to the bullpen after the right-hander has registered an 0-2 mark in his past three starts with a 10.67 ERA, dating back to June 23. McHugh didn’t throw off a Spring Training mound and was labeled as “dead arm.” this spring, a label that was later diagnoses as an elbow ailment resulting in him missing the entire first half of the 2017 campaign.
McHugh’s Tuesday afternoon bullpen session at Minute Maid Park went as planned and his much anticipated season debut for the Astros is a go. McHugh made his last rehab start in Class AA this past Sunday completing six innings on 69 pitches plus 20 additional pitches in the bullpen after the outing. McHugh continued to stretch himself out in early July and his post-Independence day start saw him go 4 1/3 innings, throwing 74 in what was his third rehab start, on July 10th. He allowed three unearned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out four against Arkansas.
McHugh closed out the 2016 campaign on a positive note throwing 7.2 shutout innings allowing three hits and striking out five. The win earned him is 13th of the 2016 season and despite his underlying peripherals suggesting last year was a step back from previous years his bottom line numbers, his 4.34 ERA, was due to an career high in home runs per nine innings. His SIERA, xFIP and FIP all outperformed his ERA and his 1.410 WHIP.
Orioles starter Chris Tillman threw just his 3rd quality start of the season this past Monday surrendering a single run on two hits in 6 innings of work against the Texas Rangers. However, there is a big red flag in the performance that suggests his 2017 scuffles will continue. The O’s righty walked four batters in the turn and over his last seven trips to the mound he has walked 19 batters in 32 frames while striking out just 23. His ERA stands at 7.20 while his FIP is a still ridiculous 6.02.
McHugh vs. Tillman and behind the Astros offense is a matchup that offers the 2017 debut of the Houston righty to be a positive one.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston at Baltimore
Play: Over 11.5
This figures to be another high scoring game between these two teams. Houston has played over in 26 of 38 on the road and 7 of 8 away if the total is 10-11. They are averaging over 7 runs per game on the road and 7.1 the past week. They have McHugh making his first start and he has a 6.15 era vs the Orioles and has pitched over in 4 of 5 starts against them. Baltimore has Tillman and his 7.20 Era on the mound. They have averaged 6.4 runs per game the past week and have gone over in the last 4 games and 7 of 10 at home with a total of 10 to 10.5. Look for this game to play over tonight.
OC Dooley
Braves / Dodgers Under 8.5
Not only did Atlanta pull off a shocking 12-3 upset last night, starting pitcher Jamie Garcia hit a grand slam homer off of Alex Wood who entered with a 10-0 record and a paltry 1.66 earned run average. While it came as no personal shock that Wood (developed by the Atlanta organization) was finally hit hard, it should be pointed out that in the past two years when the Dodgers are off a game where 15+ combined runs have been scored, they have gone a resounding 21-7 UNDER the total. Tonight's starting pitcher Rich Hill has owned the Braves (3-0 career mark with a 1.89 ERA) and also this month has allowed just 2 runs in 19 stellar innings. Atlanta's Julio Teheran has been far superior on the ROAD where his ERA (2.53) has been spectacular. The UMPIRE for tonight is Ron Kulpa and his games are 11 out of 17 to the UNDER (with road teams averaging just 3.2 runs per pop)