Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Cubs -156
The Cubs are 26-7 on the road vs a team that is behind them in the standings and 20-7 as a road favorite in this range. They fit a solid 78% league wide system and have Lackey on the mound. He is 5-1 with a 2,95 era vs the Brewers and has allowed just 2runs in his last 20 innings against them. He has better numbers than Davies for Milwaukee. The Brewers are 5-19 as a home to +150. With the Cubs averaging 5.6 runs on the road we will back them tonight.
Mike Lundin
Giants vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -132
The San Francisco Giants have lost six straight since the All Star break. They're 1-4 in the last five meetings with the Yankees in the Bronx following a 3-2 setback on Friday, and I like the Yankees to take Saturday's contest as well.
Ivan Nova (7-5, 4.92) takes the ball for New York. He owns a 4-2 record and 3.74 ERA in 10 appearances at Yankee Stadium on the season and he held the Orioles to one run on four hits in six innings of a 2-1 home win his last time out. Nova tossed one of his two career shutouts versus the Giants in 2013 and he has their current members limited to a .156 batting average with eight strikeouts through 32 at bats.
Jeff Samardzija (9-5 , 4.05 ERA) will toe the slab for the Giants. He's 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA in three career meetings with the Bronx Bombers and has struggled with Carlos Beltran (5-for-16) and Chase Headley (5-for-13). Samardzjia is 2-2 with a 6.02 ERA in his last eight starts and surrendered five runs (four earned) on five hits and four walks in five innings at Petco Park his last start.
Yankees are 5-1 in their last six home games, Giants are 0-6 in their last six road games and 9-21 in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Scott Spreitzer
Giants vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -132
Jeff Samardzija is one of those pitchers that do well in the National League but have little luck against AL teams as we saw last year when he was with the Chicago White Sox and finished the year with an 11-13 record and 4.96 ERA. Samardzija has struggled against everyone his last five starts allowing 22 earned runs and 32 hits in 27 2/3 innings. The right-hander gave up five runs in the first three innings his last time out against San Diego in a 7-6 loss. Samardzija has a 3-9 Interleague record in his career. Ivan Nova has won his last two starts after a rough June and has allowed six runs in 16 2/3 innings in July with 17 strikeouts. Also, Nova pitches better at home where he has a 3.74 ERA compared to 6.25 on the road. San Francisco has lost six in a row and couldn't win with Madison Bumgarner on the mound last night. Look for the Yankees to make it two in a row on Saturday.
Marc Lawrence
Rangers vs. Royals
Play: Rangers -120
Edges - Rangers: Cole Hamels 7-1 with 2.47 ERA last 8 team starts, and 1.84 ERA away as opposed to 4.53 ERA home this season, and 7-2 last 9 team starts during July. Royals: Yordano Ventura 1-7 with 4.73 ERA last 8 team starts, including 0-3 with 6.51 ERA this month, and 0-2 with 9.00 ERA last two team starts in this series. With the Rangers 11-4 on Saturdays this season, we recommend a 1* play on Texas.
Bob Harvey
Padres vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7½
The San Diego Padres look to continue their recent power surge when they visit the Washington Nationals.The total is 7.5. Both teams are struggling. The Padres had lost four straight before Friday’s victory while the National League East leading Nationals have dropped four of five.
The Padres (42-55, 19-30 road) took the series opener 5-3 as Matt Kemp who slugged two home runs giving him six in six games. Overall San Diego has hammered at least one roundtripper in 20 consecutive games.
The Nationals (57-40, 50-47 home) have seen their division lead cut to 4.5 games. Stephen Strasburg saw his 13-0 streak come to an end Thursday against the Dodgers and are hoping Scherzer (10-6, 2.94) can halt the skid. The Washington All-Star owns a 5-2 mark with a 1.61 ERA and 81 strikeouts in his last nine starts (61 1/3 innings). He recorded a no-decision in his last meeting with San Diego on June 18 despite striking out 10 and permitting one run on four hits in six innings. The Padres will counter with the well-traveled Edwin Jackson (1-1, 4.76 ERA) who will face the team that he spent the 2012 season with.
The UNDER is 7-3 in San Diego’s last 10 overall while Washington is 7-3 to the low side in its past 10.
San Diego is 1-7 in its last eight road games.
Jesse Schule
Padres vs. Nationals
Play: Over 7.5
The Padres upset Washington in the series opener last night, thanks to a pair of home runs by Matt Kemp. The former Dodger is on fire, with six home runs in his last six games. Kemp and the Padres face Max Scherzer in Game 2, and Kemp is 1-for-27 with nine strikeouts lifetime versus the Nationals ace. Scherzer (10-6, 2.94 ERA) has pitched well lately, despite the fact that the Nationals have lost four of his last six starts. He went six innings, allowing one run on four hits and striking out 10 in a no decision at San Diego earlier this year, but the Padres went on the win that game by a score of 7-3. The Friars hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who has struggled to stay in a major league rotation for the bulk of his 13 year career. Jackson (1-1, 4.76 ERA) walked five batters in 6 1/3 innings, but avoided a disaster giving up just three runs on one hit in a 5-3 win over the Giants in his first start of the season. He faces a Washington lineup with plenty of power, and could be punished if he continues to put men on base. The Padres bullpen has really been knocked around this year, ranking near the bottom of the majors with an ERA of 4.54.
MMA OddsBreaker
Luis Henrique v Dmitry Smoliakov
Pick: Luis Henrique
Dmitry Smolyakov is a very dangerous fighter making his UFC debut, and he's a pretty solid prospect, but that doesn't mean he's guaranteed a win. Luis Henrique is a solid heavyweight who actually took the first round against an extremely talented Francis Ngannou in his last fight. Henrique is a great grappler who has solid wrestling and a decent chin. Smolyakov is all about pressing the action and getting quick finishes and if he doesn't finish Henrique quickly, he could be in some serious trouble in this fight. I feel Henrique can weather the early storm and either pick up a late finish or win a decision.
Jim Feist
Mets at Marlins
Pick: Under
A pair of strong pitchers clash in Miami, a big park, great for pitchers. The Mets have a weak offense but starter Jacob deGrom (2.38 ERA) is outstanding. The team is on a 21-7-1 run under the total. DeGrom was dominant Sunday, throwing a complete-game one-hitter to earn the win against the Phillies. The Under is 17-4 in the Mets last 21 vs. the National League East, plus a 16-5 run under the total on the road. In his last nine starts, deGrom has posted a 1.92 ERA, lowering his ERA to 2.38 on the year. Miami has ace Jose Fernandez going, with a 2.53 ERA, with the team 10-3 under when he starts. The Under is 8-1 in Fernandez's last 9 home starts. Fernandez has been fantastic this season. Since May 1, the righty has allowed more than two runs in just three starts, and in that period he's struck out double-digit batters six times.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Texas
No team has struggled more than the Giants since the All Star break but the Rangers come in a close second. The SF Giants owned MLB’s best record at the break (57-37) but have yet to win since play resumed, going 0-6. Meanwhile, the Rangers were 54-36 at the break (up 5 1/2 games in the AL West) and owned MLB’s best moneyline mark at plus-$2,422. However, Texas is 1-6 since the break, with its lead cut to 2 1/2 games over the Astros. Texas remains the moneyline leader (plus-$1,932 to Baltimore’s plus-$1,493) but Texas backers are down almost $500 in the team's seven games since play resumed after a four-day break.
As all know, the Royals have represented the AL in each of the last two World Series (beat the Mets last season, after losing a seven-game series to the Giants in 2014) but KC has been behind the eight-ball most of the 2016 season and enters this contest just 48-47, EIGHT games out of the AL Central lead, as well as FIVE games back of the second wild card spot with FOUR teams a between them and the Blue Jays (current No. 2 wild card club). Saturday’s pitching matchup features Cole Hamels (10-2, 3.00 ERA) and Yordano Ventura (6-7, 4.97 ERA).
Ventura hasn't won since blanking the Tigers over 6.1 innings of a 10-3 win back on June 17, going 0-3 over his four starts since that win (Royals are 0-4), with an ugly 6.55 ERA in those outings (it’s 8.40 in his three losses!). Ventura has made four career starts against Texas, going 2-2 with a 4.84 ERA but does have 22 strikeouts in 22.1 innings against the Rangers. Some good news is that while Ventura walked a major league-leading 33 in his first nine starts (6.10 per nine innings), he has allowed just EIGHT walks over his last nine outings (a span of in 52.2 innings), which is 1.37 per nine innings, a ratio ranks third-lowest in the AL during that span.
Texas counters with All Star Cole Hamels, who will be making his first-ever regular-season start at Kauffman Stadium (note: he pitched a perfect inning at the 2012 All-Star game in Kansas City while with the Phillies). The Rangers are 14-5 in Hamels' starts this season (plus-$855 moneyline mark ranks eight in 2016), including winning SEVEN of his last eight. Some may remember that the Rangers lost Hamels’ first two starts after being acquired from Philly last year but they then won his final 10 regular season starts. Doing the math, Texas is now 24-5 over Hamels’ last 29 regular season starts.
Dwayne Bryant
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -118
Putting my 18-10 (64%) freebie streak on the line with the DODGERS and Kenta Maeda on Saturday. Maeda is off the worst start of his career, having allowed five runs in just 4 1/3 innings at Arizona. Since 05/22, LA is 4-0 with Maeda on the mound when he allowed more than three runs in his previous start (Average score: DODGERS 7.2, Opponents 2.0). The Dodgers are also 6-0 against NL opponents this season with Maeda on the hill after he went less than six innings in his previous outing (Average score: DODGERS 5.8, Opponents 1.8 ).
OSKEIM SPORTS
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -125
Baltimore right-hander Kevin Gausman has been terrific at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts at Camden Yards. Despite a lack of consistency over the last couple of seasons (management shuttling back-and-forth from Triple-A Norfolk), Gausman improved upon his strikeout, walk, swing strike and ground ball rates last season.
Gausman's fastball induced a 21% strikeout rate last year (18th best among 95 qualified starters) and he remains a prime candidate for a breakout second half in 2016. Gausman's 3.78 xFIP (3.80 xFIP in 2015) is backed by a 22.1% K%, 5.0% BB% and a 17.1% K-BB%.
Gausman is also supported by a very good Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, together with a 2.90 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home, a 2.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at night and a 2.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over the last seven games.
Finally, Cleveland right-hander Josh Tomlin toes the rubber with a 5.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five career starts against the Orioles, including yielding a combined 10 earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched at Camden Yards.
Marco D'Angelo
Mariners vs Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +130
Seattle sends Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound who has been sharp allowing just 7 runs total in his last 4 starts. In 26 1/3 innings of work he allowed just 23 hits and had a 19-5 strikeout to walk ratio. Toronto sends R.A. Dickey who when pitching in day games this year has a ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.38. Dickey has struggled against Seattle as in 5 career starts he has a ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.42. Iwakuma has owned Toronto in the 4 times he faced them posting an ERA of 1.24 and a WHIP of 0.96. In his career when Iwakuma has allowed 1 earned run or less in his last start his team is 27-13 in his next start with the opposition averaging just 2.8 runs a game. It also must be noted that when Iwakuma starts on the road over the last 2 seasons his team is 22-10. Lastly Seattle is now 14-6 this year vs the AL East after last nights 2-1 win. My numbers have Seattle winning 6-4.
Bob Balfe
Diamondbacks -125
The Reds are not very good against left handed pitching and today will be going with a fill in pitcher who normally would pitch out of the bullpen. The Reds bullpen stinks and I don’t expect Sampson to last that long. This is not a good spot for Cincinnati and I believe they get pounded today.
Chase Diamond
Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
Two teams meet up that are really battling for a playoff spot when the 55-42 Rangers take on the 48-47 Royals. Rangers have lost 4 straight and the Royals are just 4-6 last 10 games. Yordano Ventura has been pitching well last few starts and has the best stuff as Royals starters goes. Cole Hamels is a stud but the Rangers have been struggling to score runs. Rangers are a huge public play today as 83% are backing this road team yet the line has totally shifted the opposite way showing us who the sharps are backing and backing big time here.
TONY FINN
Los Angeles at St. Louis
Play: Los Angeles -129
The St. Louis Cardinals were fortunate to dodge a Friday night loss and are shooting for their sixth straight win on Saturday in the second of a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA sends righty Kenta Maeda (8-7, 3.25 ERA) to the hill to square off against Cardinals right-hander Mike Leake (7-7, 4.00)
Dodgers
Maeda, the Japanese import contained the San Diego offense in his last turn allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings of work on July 10 while striking out a season high 13. Maeda has the advantage the first two times through the Cards lineup as none of the current St Louis bats have faced the LA starter. Maeda has been stellar on the road this season managing a 5-2 mark with a 3.31 ERA in nine starts as a visitor.
Cardinals
Leake has outpitched his peripherals in his last two tuns. The Cards righty allowed one run and six hits over seven frames in a winning effort against Milwaukee and in his next to last start handled the San Diego Padres. Leake has been a disappointment for Cardinal faithful. The innings eater has been anything but consistent this season. There was a time when you could count on Leake to be efficient and keep his team in the game but he doesn't miss enough bats, registering a below league average strike out percentage (15%).
Outlook
The Dodgers have been executing offensively like a postseason condender and in Friday night's loss to the Redbirds they outhit the home team 14-8 but hold onto a ninth innings lead resulting in a 4-3 at Busch. The Dodgers are in a great spot tonight against a pedestrian and inconsistent offensive Cardinals troupe.