Scott Rickenbach
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +1.5
The Angels lost a tight 2-1 game yesterday. They are now 10-3 in their last 13 games and 2 of the 3 losses came by just a single run. In other words, there is insane line value here with the Angels +1.5 runs as they only have one loss by more than a run in their last 13 games. The Astros are just 9-7 in their last 16 games and 5 of the wins came by just a single run. Houston, if you played them at -1.5 in each of their last 16 games, would have given you an ugly 4-12 record at the betting window. The Astros are likely to struggle again just to win this game let alone cover the 1.5 runs. That said, I'll gladly lay the short price to have a hot Angels club +1.5 runs here on the run line. LA's Jered Weaver has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two starts. The Astros Collin McHugh has allowed 19 baserunners (13 hits and 6 walks) in his last two home starts and the Angels will keep the pressure on him throughout this game. Look for Houston to drop to 2-5 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. I expect Los Angeles to improve to 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record but, again, I am grabbing the 1.5 runs here in case they do fall a run short.
Power Sports
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
With the excellent Tyler Anderson on the mound, the Rockies are actually adequately priced here, believe it or not. In this very space, I offered up a recommendation on the Rockies w/ Anderson pitching Monday. He led them to victory (7-4 over Tampa Bay). I'm confident he can do the same here.
Ironically, it was arguably Anderson's worst start of the year Monday as he allowed a season-high four runs. He walked three batters, but gave up only five hits. Note he'd allowed 3 ER or less in each of his first six outings though. That's despite four of those starts coming here at Coors Field (where his ERA is an impressive 3.26). Now having pitched at home five times, Anderson has a 29-7 KW rate in those starts. As I mentioned in Monday's analysis, a pitcher who can strike batters out consistently is what this Colorado pitching staff has needed for years. Anderson might finally be "the guy."
The Rockies have taken the first two games of this series, by scores of 7-3 and 4-3. Considering they beat the Braves' best pitcher (Julio Teheran) last night, it should be "smooth sailing" this weekend. Even the thin air of Denver isn't enough to aid this woeful Atlanta offense which is averaging just 3.4 rpg. They are dead last in all of baseball in runs scored. Pitching here for them will be Matt Wisler, who has a 7.87 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his L3 starts. As the line suggests, this is a mismatch.
SPORTS WAGERS
EDMONTON -5 over Hamilton
Every week there's a story out of Hamilton trumpeting head coach Kent Austin's support of backup quarterback Jeremiah Masoli but what else is Austin supposed to say? Austin has few options while the Tabbies wait for starter Zach Collaros to return. Masoli is a turnover factory that leads the league with five interceptions. He’s also fumbled four times and lost three of them and he’s done all that in just four games. While Masoli has not done himself any favors, he hasn't had any help from a porous offensive line that's given up 13 sacks in those four games. Last week in a 31-7 win over Montreal, Masoli's poor play was covered by the Hamilton defense and another Brandon Banks touchdown return so we're not going to put much stock into that win. That game last week was 3-0 for Montreal with under a minute to go in the first half. Two weeks ago, Hamilton lost to Winnipeg and is the only team this season to lose to the Bombers. Three weeks ago, Masoli and the ‘Cats scored three points against B.C. For the Tiger-Cats to be successful today, Masoli and the Ti-Cats offense is going to have to trade punches with Mike Reilly and his plethora of weapons and frankly, that's just not a reasonable request.
The Eskimos and their backers have to be disappointed with last week's 20-16 win in Winnipeg. For bettors, that game closed at -4 in favor of Edmonton so what looked like an easy win for the Eskimos was a wash at the window. We can see why the market may be hesitant to come back on them here when they failed to put away the lowly Bombers but we see this line as an absolute steal. Reports out of Commonwealth say the Eskimos defense is chomping at the bit to get back on the field this week. The Eskimos have played in three one score games this season, which has their stock lower than it should be. However, Edmonton outgained Winnipeg by nearly 200 yards last week so that was a flattering score to the Bombers. The Eskies also dominated the Riders but some goofy mistakes made that score a lot closer than it should have been too. Edmonton led that game 33-19 late in the fourth quarter. Edmonton has been marching down field with ease all year but has shot themselves in the foot once inside the red-zone. That’s just bad luck. In three games, Edmonton has put up 20, 39 and 37 points respectively but should have put up 40 not 20 on Winnipeg last week. They also had more chances to add to those other big totals. The Eskies have not blown out anyone this year but they are superior to both Calgary and B.C., two teams that have blowout wins. Edmonton is on the verge of one and this victim is ripe to get blown out with a weak QB running the show. Edmonton’s two wins were both very close on the scoreboard and that’s why they’re underpriced here. On the stat sheet, Edmonton’s two wins should have been blowouts so asking them to win by a TD here is more than reasonable. We’ll step it up and play it for 2½ units.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +223 over BOSTON
Ricky Nolasco brings risk. He’s been hit and miss all year but sometimes you just have to ignore one pitcher when attacking the other and that’s the case here. If Nolasco gets whacked, so be it but David Price is grossly overvalued here, which makes the Twins a must play in our book.
David Price has lots of pedigree. He was once elite and one of the best in the business but since the beginning of last year’s playoffs, Price has been very average and very beatable too. His line drive rate over the past eight starts of 35% is the highest among qualified starters and it’s not even close. When pitching at Fenway, hitters have been teeing off on him all season long with shots off the Monster constantly. Overall, Price’s batted ball of 42% grounders, 26% line-drives and 30% fly-balls is weak. Price’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.58. In his last start against the Yankees, he was tagged for 11 hits in 5.1 frames but only three runners crossed the plate. Price still has a high K-rate and excellent control but his pitches are coming in flat and hitters have been squaring up on them. Price is absolutely capable of beating the Twins but once again, we are not in the business of predicting outcomes. What we know for sure is that the Twinkies are winning games, they’re scoring runs and could very easily go off for six or seven runs here. If the Red Sox score more, oh well.
TORONTO -1½ +163 over Seattle
R.A. Dickey has 10 pure quality starts in 20 attempts this season, which is right where one would expect a knuckleballer to be. His chances for a quality start today look pretty good considering that current Mariners have had nothing but misery against Dickey. In 93 career at bats, current M’s have combined to hit just .204 against Dickey. Of the 19 hits in 93 combined AB’s, only one has left the yard and only five have been extra bases. That said, we are more interested in fading Hisashi Iwakuma than we are in backing Dickey.
After Iwakuma signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers this past winter, a failed physical sent him back to Seattle on a one-year deal (with two options). A shoulder injury cost him most of the first half of 2015. He was a free-agent pitcher that nobody wanted and that says something in this pitching starved league. Iwakuma’s 38%/41% groundball/fly-ball split doesn’t figure to play well at this venue. Neither does his 87 MPH fastball or 5.47 xERA over his last eight starts. Iwakuma has put up some decent numbers (10-6, 4.01 ERA) but his profile is a high risk one that relies heavily on batted balls in play variances. Iwakuma doesn’t strike a lot of batters. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts is 6%. He’s been high on our fade list practically the entire season but he’s managed to dance around some shaky outings. This park is unforgiving to those that dance so Iwakuma is likely in for a rough one.
Vegas Butcher
Philadelphia Phillies +140
Nola’s 4.4 ERA masks how great he’s been this season, as he’s my #5 starter overall and #10 in the last 30-days. His advanced metrics are excellent, and he’s truly one of the best pitchers in the league. By comparison, he’s going up against a young prospect in Glasnow. One fact that jumps out at me is Glasnow’s poor control. In the minors this year (102 innings) he’s had a 4.9 BB/9 rate or 14% BB%. That’s awful. Remember, that was minors! Against MLB hitters that’s going to be even worse. Philly is a bad overall offense, but over the last 30-days they’re performing at a league average mark ranking 13th overall. And do you know who’s struggling? Pirates offense of course, ranking 25th overall in the last 30-days. Weak offense, terrible BP (#26 overall), and a young kid that can’t throw strikes. How the heck are the ‘Rats favorites by this much against the 5th best pitcher in the league??
Arizona Diamondbacks -125
Robbie Ray is my 34th overall starter and 23rd in the last 30-days. The key here is that he’s absolutely filthy against lefties, ranking 6th overall against them. Well, the biggest threat on Cincy’s offense is Joey Votto, and of course he’s a lefty. If Ray can neutralize him, I doubt we’ll see this 26th ranked offense do much today. And I think he will. More so than backing Ray, this play is about fading Sampson and this Cincy 30th ranked BP. Keyvius Sampson is a middle reliever, one of the worst in the league. The guy sports 5.5 ERA and has allowed 5 HR’s with 14 BB’s in only 16 innings of work this year. In his MLB career (68 innings) he has a 6.3 ERA and 5.3 xFIP. This is not a good pitcher. More so, I doubt we see him going longer than 5 innings, so this 30th ranked Cincy BP will have to go for almost half a game. Now that’s an advantage that I just can’t pass up.
Colorado Rockies -190
Juicy, but the matchup is right. Wisler is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, ranking 131st in my database. Furthermore, he’s allowed 5 HR’s in his last 2 starts and has a GB-rate of less than 40%. Pitching in elevation is not going to help matters tonight especially against this Rockies team that ranks 9th in ISO against right-handers. Opposite him will be Tyler Anderson, who is quietly my 15th ranked starter. He’s coming off a poor start, but that was against Tampa, a team that ranks 2nd offensively against lefties. By comparison, Atlanta ranks 29th, with only Philly being worse. Anderson has a GB-rate of almost 60% on the season, he’s never faced ATL before, and he throws an excellent ‘fastball’ a pitch that ATL is the worst in the league by far. I like the Rockies to tee off Wisler tonight, and behind a dominant pitcher of their own, this one should be a fairly easy win.
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs -1.5 +114
Chicago got their leadoff man back from the DL, as Dexter Fowler returned to the lineup in yesterday's 5-2 win in the series opener. When he's in the starting lineup, the Cubs are 44-18. I think Chicago is ready to go another big run here, as they have won 6 of their last 8.
I like the Cubs to not only win on Saturday but to do so by at least 2 runs. Chicago will send out John Lackey, who hasn't pitched great of late, but is coming off a strong outing in his last start. Most importantly he's owned the Brewers, going 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 9 career starts. Milwaukee will counter with Zach Davies, who has pitched well after a slow start, but I look for him to struggle here against the potent lineup of the Cubs.
Brewers are 4-19 over the last 2 seasons as a home dog of +125 to +150 and have lost these games by an average of 2.5 runs. Lackey on the other hand is 22-9 in his career in road starts during the month of July, winning by 2 runs/game.
Ray Monohan
Chicago / Milwaukee Under 8.5
The Cubs and Brewers get set for a Saturday night clash and the Under holds value here. John Lackey gets the ball for the Cubs and his career success against the Brewers has been phenomenal. Lackey brings in a record of 5-1, with an ERA that sits at 2.95 in 9 starts.
As for the Brewers, they counter with Zach Davies, who is enduring the best stretch of his career. Over the last 2 months, Davies has compiled a 6-1 record with an ERA that sits at just 2.95 over a 13 start span. Both starting pitchers have been stellar this season and should be able to limit the scoring opportunities here.
Some trends to consider. Under is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee. Under is 36-15-2 in the last 53 meetings.
These teams have been notorious to the playing the Under. Given the starters here as well, this is a nice number and spot.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox -1.5 -125
Boston's offense surprisingly went cold in yesterday's 1-2 loss to the Twins. That came against a below average starter in Kyle Gibson and after they had just scored 24 runs on 33 hits in their previous two games. I look for the Red Sox's offense to bounce back in a big way here against Minnesota's Ricky Nolasco. I'm also expecting a dominant outing from Boston ace David Price, who is starting to turn it around with a 2.49 ERA in his last 3 starts. Price has owned the Twins in his career, going 9-3 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 14 career starts. Out of those 9 wins, only 1 has come by fewer than 2 runs, which is why I'm confident playing the run line here.
Jack Jones
Miami Marlins -146
The Miami Marlins (52-44) are legitimate playoff contenders right now. They are battling with the New York Mets (51-44) for the final two wild card spots in the NL, plus to chase down the Washington Nationals atop the NL East.
Jose Fernandez simply does not lose at home. He is 25-1 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.895 WHIP over 36 home starts in his career, including 8-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.881 WHIP in 10 home starts in 2016. Fernandez has never lost to the Mets, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in six career starts against them.
Fernandez is 15-0 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season in his career. The Marlins are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Miami is 29-3 in Fernandez's last 32 home starts.
Alex Smart
Astros -1½ +112
The Angels starter Weaver has been an inconsistent presence on the hill for the Halos this season, and has seen his team lose 9 of his 13 trips to the hill. Meanwhile, McHugh the Astros starter, has had a great deal of success vs the Angels in the past with his club winning his L/6 starts against them. It must also be noted that the Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Note: Astros are 6-0 in McHughs last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.Astros are 12-4 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series. Astros are 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. a right-handed starter
Angels are 0-9 in the last 9 meetings and look like to extend that to 10 games here in this spot.
Dave Price
Oakland A's -105
The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays are just 18-39 in their last 57 games overall. Now they send the struggling Drew Smyly to the mound. The left-hander is 2-11 with a 5.64 ERA in 18 starts, 2-5 with a 6.28 ERA in 10 road starts, and 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA in his last 3 outings. Kendall Graveman has been great this season for the A's, especially at home where he's 2-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 7 starts. Graveman is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in his last 3 starts as well. Smyly is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Oakland, while Graveman is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay. The Rays are 0-5 in Smyly's last 5 starts. Tampa Bay is 0-7 in its last 7 Saturday games. The A's are 7-0 in Graveman's last 7 starts.
Brad Wilton
You looking for a pitchers duel on the Saturday card? Look no further than this Mets-Marlins meeting in Florida.
New York sends Jacob de Grom who owns a 2.38 season ERA, and is on a 3-0 streak with a 1.29 ERA. Included is a July 6th start against the Marlins in which he allowed 2 runs over 7 innings worked. de Grom's last start was a one-hit shutout over the Phillies, as 2 of his last 3 starts have stayed Under the total.
For the year, 10 of de Grom's 16 starts have held Under the total.
Jose Fernandez counters fresh off his 14 strikeout performance in a no-decision against the Phillies. Likewise, 2 of Fernandez' last 3 starts have stayed Under the total, and the Under for the year is 12-6 in his 18 starts. Fernandez' numbers at home are even sicker, as the Marlins are 29-3 in his last 32 starts at home!
The Mets enter at 17-5 Under the total their last 22 on the road after last night's game held low, so no sense in playing the contrarian in this spot. You know what we are getting, and that is a ton of goose eggs on the scoreboard in a game that sees perhaps 4 runs total.
Mets-Marlins Under.
4* N.Y. METS-MIAMI UNDER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 87-74 run with free picks: Arizona at CINCINNATI (+115).
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Arizona Diamondbacks continue their road trip with their second game in Cincinnati, and second of a 10-game road trip that will take them through Milwaukee and Los Angeles as well. Not exactly a good time for the Snakes, so I'm not sure what the oddsmakers are thinking with this line.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Arizona's demise is what I'm focused on here, as it's losing far too much to be laying money on the road - no matter who is on the hill. Since winning seven of eight, the Diamondbacks have lost 16 of 20, including four of six in the second half.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Reds went through a similar skid not too long back, but since dropping 17 of 23, they've won two straight and four of five. This is great weekend to keep their momentum alive, against a team that can't seem to get out of its own way.
4* REDS
Scott Delaney
My free play for Saturday night is on the Colorado Rockies on the Run Line over the visiting Atlanta Braves.
There are just some things we can be certain of, that seem to come automatically in sports: LeBron James in the NBA Finals, the New England Patriots cheating somehow every other year, the SEC dominating college football and in baseball, the Braves losing in Denver.
The Rockies have won seven straight games against the Braves at Coors Field after Colorado won 7-3 in the series lid-lifter last night.
Tonight will be the same story.
Now, even though all Run Line/Total plays will list pitchers with the starting pitchers scheduled to go at the time of the wager, I don't care about who is starting for either team and want you playing this game regardless. Thus, please be sure you have action if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched. Simply check back occasionally and in the event of a scratch, re-wager the game. This play will stand no matter what, so be sure you have action.
That being said, I can tell you I don't mind knowing the Braves hand the ball to Julio Teheran, who is 3-8 with a 2.79 ERA in 19 starts. Historically, he's actually been good against the Rockies, but that won't scare me.
Again, I don't care who goes for us tonight, I'm playing the home team in a rout.
3* ROCKIES
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Saturday is on the Oakland Athletics over the Tampa Bay Rays, and in this one I want you listing both scheduled starting pitchers: Kendall Graveman and Drew Smyly.
Let's start with the Rays' starting left-hander, as Smyly has been pelted for four runs or more in eight of his last nine starts. During that span he is 0-6 with a whopping 8.03 ERA. And while Kevin Cash said Tuesday that Smyly would not be removed from the rotation, I think he's going to show his manager why they better consider sitting this guy for awhile.
Now, with an improved Graveman, we have a much better chance, as the right-hander has turned things around since opening the season 1-5 with a 5.84 ERA in seven starts. The sinkerballer is now 4-0 with a 2.64 ERA in his past seven starts, and should dominate for us, while we're laying such a cheap price.
3* ATHLETICS