Free Picks for Saturday, July 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Spreitzer
Toronto at Saskatchewan
Play: Saskatchewan -3
We had Toronto last week and the Argos almost blew it in the fourth before eking our a 27-24 win over Ottawa. Toronto is probably a season away from truly contending. They are 3-2 in Marc Trestman's return to the CFL, but two of the wins came against Ottawa by a grand total of four points, while their other win came against winless and hapless Hamilton. Toronto's two games against the stronger West Division resulted in a 28-15 loss to BC and a 33-25 loss to Winnipeg. They're traveling and taking on a focused Saskatchewan team that can't afford too many more losses before picking up a couple wins. The Roughriders are 1-3, splitting their home games with two of the three losses coming by a total of four points. The defense has played well, holding their opponents to 3.32 yards per play on first down, an important handicapping tool in this three-down league. Toronto has had their problems with their first down offense the last couple of weeks, putting themselves in a hole, and we feel they're going to pay for it in this one. We also expect a now healthy Roughrider offense to have a major advantage over a badly banged-up Argo defense, playing on a short week.
Raphael Esparza
Albu (-160) over Curran
A little shocked that Alexandra Albu is only -160 against Kailin Curran, and I don't see this fight lasting long. Albu is an amazing striker, and her judo skills are outstanding. I see her taking care of business early in this fight. Curran comes into this fight dropping her last two fights, and if she can't take the pressure of Albu early again this fight will be done early. Hurry up and grab this -160 because the closer the weekend comes this number will be gone. Alexandra Albu wins this fight in the early second round while Albu might go back to kickboxing full-time.
Jesse Schule
Toronto vs. Saskatchewan
Play: Toronto +3
The Argos are coming off an impressive 27-24 win over Ottawa, and their defense held Trevor Harris to 184 yards passing in that game. Toronto DE Victor Butler leads the league with seven sacks in five games, and he'll make life difficult for veteran Kevin Glenn when the Argos visit Saskatchewan this week. The Riders are 1-3, and they got roughed up in a 27-10 loss at Calgary last week. Their lone win this season came against the winless Hamilton Tigercats. They gave up a whopping 43 points in a home loss to Winnipeg, and they lost at home to Toronto last season by a score of 30-17. The Argos are the hot team, with a superior quarterback, getting points here on the road at Saskatchewan. I'll take the points with the Boatmen.
Andre Ramirez
Barao vs. Sterling
Play: Over 2½
Sterling’s punches aren’t the cringeworthy windmills they were early in his UFC career, but he’s still infinitely less effective when he can’t get the takedown. Unfortunately, that’s the situation he faces on Saturday while Barao’s game has yet to evolve sufficiently, he’s still got ridiculous takedown defense. Dillashaw concussed the guy and still couldn’t keep him down.
On the feet, Barao’s jab and low kicks are enough to dictate the pace. Expect a slightly more exciting version of Sterling’s fight with Assuncao as the former champ shuts down Sterling’s wrestling and lands just enough to edge the decision. Lay the money on the over.
MMA OddsBreaker
Woodley vs. Maia
Pick: Under 2.5
I think Woodley should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite in this contest, so I pretty much agree with the current betting lines, so I see no value in either fighter for a play. However, I do like the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at -135 here, as I think there is a good chance that this fight ends early. Maia has a size advantage over Woodley, as well as an advantage in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so it is possible that he can drag “T-Wood” to the mat and secure a tap. The fight favors Woodley because it starts out on the feet, where he holds the advantage, and he generally has very good takedown defense largely due to his wrestling background. Woodley possesses dynamite in his hands, which is why I think the most likely outcome to this welterweight title fight is him defending his title with a knockout of the Brazilian. I think both scenarios are realistic, and I think there is a good chance that one of them plays true on Saturday night, so at -135, I think the Under is worth a shot.
DAVE COKIN
CUBS AT BREWERS
PLAY: CUBS -1
The Cubs got shut down by Brent Suter on Friday night. The Brewers lefty was an artist at work through his seven innings. I doubt we’ll see anything resembling that here.
Junior Guerra was a major surprise in a breakout 2016. But the Milwaukee righty has plummeted to earth with a thud this season. It might well be that what we saw last season was a total outlier. There have been some injury issues to be sure. But the bottom line is that Guerra has seen a substantial decline with his velocity and that coupled with spotty command has yielded some ugly results. I doubt Guerra would still be starting if not for other pitchers currently being on the shelf with ailments of their own. After getting stifled by the lefty Suter, I’m fully expecting the Cubs bats to awaken with a vengeance tonight.
Kyle Hendricks isn’t exactly having a banner season himself for the Cubs, certainly not at the level he enjoyed last year. But I definitely prefer Hendricks to Guerra, and I like the fact this has been a very good ballpark for the Chicago righty. With the price somewhat expensive, I prefer splitting this between the Money Line and Runs Line, thus creating a -1 and the Cubs are the choice.
Andrew Marchenko
Chievo vs. Carpi FC 1909
Play: Chievo +130
Chievo is doing a great job in this Friendlies season this year, they are unbeaten so far and the only team that was able to get at least a draw was Napoli. Capri so far played only one game and were beaten by that Napoli 4-1. Assuming that and as well as Chievo is a Seria A team and Carpi is Seria B team, we come up with conclusion that Chievo has good chances to win in this game
Brandon Lee
Angels vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -126
I just think this is too good a price to back the Blue Jays given that the Angels are basically going to use their bullpen for the entire game. Yusmeiro Petit is listed as the starter, but is their long reliever and isn't going to go deep in this game. That's a problem for a LA team that owns a 4.10 ERA on the road this season. Toronto lost the series opener on Friday, but are still 4-1 in their last 5 and are due to get a good outing here out of Francisco Liriano after a 9.34 ERA and 2.076 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He showed signs of returning to form in his last start and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 2 starts against the Angels.
John Martin
Rays vs. Yankees
Play: Rays +139
The Tampa Bay Rays have dropped the first two games of this series against the Yankees to fall further behind them in the wild card race. They need a win here to stem the tide, and I think they get it. Blake Snell has pitched well of late with a 3.37 ERA in his last three starts. And what really stands out is Snell's previous success against the Yankees, going 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA in five starts. Caleb Smith makes just his second start of the season for the Yankees after giving up 4 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Mariners on July 23rd. The Rays are 5-2 in their last seven against a left-handed starter, while the Yankees are 1-4 in their last five against left-handers.
Mike Lundin
Cincinnati vs. Miami
Play: Miami -142
The Miami Marlins have won six of their last eight games, and I think they'll prove well worth the money here against a Cincinnati Reds side that is 2-13 in its last 15 games.
Left-hander Adam Conley (3-3, 5.62 ERA) will take the ball for Miami. He has won his first two career meetings with the Reds behind a 3.38 ERA, and he's allowed just two runs through 13 innings of work since returning from the minors earlier this month.
The Reds turn to Tim Adleman (5-8, 5.11 ERA) who is 0-4 with a 6.49 ERA so far here in July and 1-5 with a 5.23 ERA in eight road starts on the season.
The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Dave Price
Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +154
I like the price we are getting with the Milwaukee Brewers here as big home dogs to the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers just had a 10-game road trip, but returned home for a 2-1 victory over the Cubs yesterday. Kyle Hendricks is not yet back to full strength for the Cubs and shouldn't be getting this much respect here. He just returned from nearly a 2-month absence on July 24th and only lasted 4 1/3 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox as a -260 favorite. Hendricks has faced the Brewers twice in 2017, giving up 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 innings for a 6.55 ERA. Junior Guerra is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Chicago, yielding only 3 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Ben Burns
Twins vs. A's
Play: Over 9
A couple of inconsistent hurlers collide on Saturday night, making the “over” an interesting investment option. Minnesota turns to Adalberto Mejia (4-4, 4.10 ERA) who comes in off a pedestrian outing against the Tigers on Sunday, allowing two runs off five hits over 4.1 innings, earning a no-decision for his effort. Mejia labored through the short stint, throwing just 59 of 96 pitches for strikes. Oakland counters with Jharel Cotton (5-8, 5.17) who comes in off his best start of the year, going six scoreless with nine K’s (in Triple-A Nashville in his final rehab start.) Cotton makes his return to the majors where he’s just 2-4 with a 7.11 ERA at home so far this season.
Marc Lawrence
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Cubs -160
Edges - Cubs: Hendricks 5-1 vs NL Central, and 5-1 team starts at night this season… Brewers: Guerra 7.36 ERA and 1.73 WHIP last 7 overall team starts, and 2-7 as a dog this season… With Hendricks in solid KW form with 18 Ks and 4 BBs his last four starts, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago Cubs.
Jimmy Boyd
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -1.5
Regardless of what happens in Friday's game, I like the value with LA on the -1.5 run line in Saturday's early matchup. The Dodgers might be without Kershaw, but he only pitches 1 out of every 5 days. He's just one of several LA starters who are throwing well and a lot of people overlook how good a team this is on the offensive side of the ball.
Los Angeles will send out Rich Hill for Saturday's contest and given his recent form the Giants will be lucky to score more than a couple runs in this one. Hill has a 1.96 ERA and 0.818 WHIP over his last 3 starts and owns a career 2.26 ERA against San Francisco. The Giants will counter with Ty Blach, who owns an ugly 5.26 ERA over 6 road starts and just gave up 5 run in 7 innings in his last outing.