Jack Jones
Twins vs. Athletics
Play: Twins -106
The Minnesota Twins ended their four-game losing streak with a 6-3 victory yesterday over the Oakland A's. It was the perfect team for the Twins to face to get back on track considering the A's are 1-7 in their last eight games overall and have little to be motivated about at this point.
Adaberto Mejia has held his own this season, going 4-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 15 starts for the Twins. He has been at his best on the road, going 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in five starts away from home. He is also 0-1 with a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts coming in.
Minnesota is 21-9 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The Twins are 22-11 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
TJ Pemberton
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -1½
LA is the king of the NL West and have won six straight games. LA beat the Giants 6-4 last night and have won 8 of their last 10 games. The Dodgers are 25-17 against divisional opponents and are 45-14 at home.
Will Rogers
Baltimore vs. Texas
Pick: Baltimore
The set-up: Baltimore's season has imploded after a 22-10 start. With the July 31 trade deadline rapidly approaching the Orioles are 48-54. That leaves them 4th of five AL East teams (7 1/2 back) and 6 1/2 games out of a wild card spot with six teams ahead of them. Doing the math, the Orioles are 26-44 since their quick start, which is .371 baseball! The 50-52 Texas Rangers are trying to decide if they are a wild card contender in the American League with the trade deadline approaching, (currently they are 4 1/2 games back of teh final spot). Pitching ace Yu Darvish is the biggest name in the rumor mill. Texas had no trouble handling the Orioles with an 8-2 win at home on Friday and will host the second of the three-game series on Saturday. The Rangers are hoping to get some revenge against the Baltimore Orioles this weekend after they were crushed by a combined 34-11 in a four-game series sweep at Baltimore just over a week ago.
The pitching matchup: Kevin Gausman (7-7 & 5.79 ERA) will start for Baltimore and Austin Bibens-Dirkx (3-0 & 4.53 ERA) is getting another shot in the rotation after making five starts earlier this season for Texas. Baltimore is hoping that Gausman's last two starts are an indication he's coming around. He's won two in a row, allowing a total of one run on nine hits over 12 innings (0.75 ERA). Gausman breezed past the Rangers with six strong innings on July 19 but is a modest 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA against them in five career starts (teams are 2-3). Bibens-Dirkx was 2-0 with a 4.30 in five starts earlier this season (Rangers were 2-3). He last started at the Chicago White Sox on June 30 and allowed four runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings without factoring in the decision. Bibens-Dirkx has made two appearances out of the bullpen since the All-Star break, including a 2 1/3-inning stint at Baltimore on July 18 in which he was roughed up for two runs on six hits and a pair of walks. This is his first start against the Orioles.
The pick: Bibens-Dirkx has pitched just 3 1/3 innings since July 1 (allowing eight hits, three walks and three ERs), so who knows what to expect? Meanwhile, Gausman has "good stuff" and off two excellent outings, I'll 'bite' on him winning three in a row!
Bruce Marshall
Twins at Athletics
Pick: Athletics
This has been a tough week for the A's, who have lost five in a row after dropping last night's series opener vs. the Twins. But Oakland has received three straight quality starts from Chris Smith,m who has spent almost all of his long career in the minors but making the most of his last chance at the bigs. Meanwhile the Twins usually cannot rely on more than 5 IP from starter Adalberto Mejia.
Jim Feist
Pirates at Padres
Pick: Under
This is a big park and a pair of weak offenses clash, with Pittsburgh #23 in runs scored, San Diego dead last. Pittsburgh is on a 19-6-1 under, including 22-6 under the total against a righty starter. Ivan Nova (10-7, ,3.62 ERA) has been strong for the Pirates, with the team on a 7-1 run under the total when he takes the mound. San Diego is 4-0 under against the NL Central. Dinelson Lamet goes for San Diego, with 68 strikeouts in 51+ innings. Batters are hitting just .202 off him in this park.
Rob Vincilett
Mets at Mariners
Play: Mets -125
The Mets fit a 78% system road favorite system and have won the last 8 starts with Degrom. He has allowed more than 2 runs in just one of those starts and was dominant going 7 strong here allowing just 1 run in his lone start here. Seattle has lost 11 of 16 on Saturday and has Gallardo going. Gallardo has lost 6 of 8 as a dog and is 2-6 at home with a 7.29 era. Look for the Mets to take this one.
Gary Bart
Pirates vs. Padres
Play:Padres +113
The Pirates were play great baseball before going on the road for this extended Western swing. They are 2-5 on this trip, have lost three straight and dropped the opening game of this series last night. San Diego are 3-0 in their last three, bringing their record to 3-2 on this homestand. Ivan Nova was rocked in his last start for the Pirates. Look for San Diego to be competitive in this game.
Nelly
Giants at Dodgers
Play: Under 9
In a miserable season for the Giants Ty Blach has been a bright spot going 6-6 with a 4.50 ERA. His FIP is just 3.93 and he is one of the few NL West starters with good numbers vs. the red hot Dodgers, allowing just two runs and nine hits in 12 innings while splitting two decisions. Since allowing seven runs in Cleveland in mid-June Rich Hill has been on a great run with a 1.93 ERA in his last six starts while posting an absurd 12.5 K/9. Hill has incredibly been one of the baseball's best pitchers when healthy the last two seasons despite his advanced age and he has flourished at Dodger Stadium. Despite the amazing run of wins continuing Los Angeles isn't scoring like they were a month ago and the rival Giants are one of the few teams in baseball with a series edge this season winning six of 11 games at this point. Los Angeles has scored just 4.7 runs per game over the last 20 contests, a good rate to be sure, but not at where the perception of this team is at right now and this lefty-lefty matchup in the afternoon conditions in Chavez Ravine could play 'under' the number.
Bob Balfe
Red Sox -140
The Royals have won 9 in a row. Impressive indeed, but against two really bad baseball teams. Boston is excellent at home and has a great bullpen. Vegas favored this team at a pretty high price for a reason even taking into account how “hot” Kansas City has been.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +112 over TORONTO
There was no miracle last night for the Jays, who went back to their losing ways after the weak playing A’s left town. It was Parker Bridwell this time that the Blue Jays made look like Max Scherzer and this afternoon they’ll face Yusmeiro Petit. Petit has not started a game this year but he’s got a bulldog mentality and has started 58 games over his career while appearing in 233 games. The name may not be familiar but Petit is a pitcher with great value (to his team) because he can thrive in any role. The market may view him as just another bullpen arm that is starting a game but that’s not the case at all. Petit has a starting pitcher’s arm and mentality. In fact, only Max Scherzer and Andrew Miller have posted better skills against RH batters so far in 2017 than Petit. He owns an amazing 34/2 K/BB in 24 IP against same-sided batters. The Jays are a heavy right-handed batting team with only Ryan Goins and Ezequiel Carrera (if he plays) being left-handed batters. Both Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales are switch-hitters. In 57 innings, Petit has 59 K’s, 12 walks and an xERA of 3.26.
It’s not rocket science when it comes to Francisco Liriano. If he’s throwing strikes, he can be very effective. If he’s not throwing strikes, he’ll be gone by the fourth inning. Liriano has walked 42 batters in 77 innings and has not made it out of the third inning in two of his last three starts. There is not a crystal ball in the world that can predict which version we’ll see today but Liriano has been far more erratic this year than he has in the previous few years, which makes him too big a risk. Nothing in Liriano’s profile is trending the right way so we like his chances of being poor better than his chances of being effective. Liriano’s 7.40 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in the month of July raise some major concerns, especially considering that three of those games started came at home. The Jays did not look good against Oakland, they looked lousy again last night and frankly, they’ve looked very beatable all year, yet they continue to be priced like they’re playing .500 or better. The fade continues.
Kansas City +126 over BOSTON
Eduardo Rodriguez was on the DL from June 1 to July 17 and was pulled after 5.1 innings in both those starts. He surrendered 12 hits, walked six and whiffed 14 over those 10.2 frames and also allowed a jack in both starts. He was not on a pitch count either, as he threw 111 and 99 pitches respectively. At the time of the injury, Boston manager John Farrell hedged on the "three to four weeks" timeline, indicating that Rodriguez would resume throwing when he and the team felt he was ready. This dislocation was perceived to be less severe than the previous two on the same right knee, since he was able to continue pitching in his June 1 start (not pitching well, yielding four HR, but still pitching just the same). Rodriguez received a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, which revealed no ligament damage. However, he could require surgery at some point, which would cost him five or six months. The point is that we don’t know how this affects him mentally. Is he being as aggressive? Power comes from the legs and one has to wonder if Rodriguez is throwing the same knowing that his knee could give out at any time. What we know is that his velocity is down from 93.2 MPH to 92.7 MPH in his two starts since returning. A starter without a groundball lean profile is almost a risk that’s what we have here in Rodriguez’s overall groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 36%/21%/43%. Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher. 29 other teams would love to have him but his effectiveness at this moment is in question and he’s not the best starter in this matchup.
San Diego signing Cahill for $1.75 million this offseason was meant to provide a little stability to a questionable rotation but few thought that the former top prospect would suddenly ramp up his strikeout rate in such startling fashion while transitioning back to the rotation. We certainly didn’t. Cahill’s career as a starter was punctuated by groundball after groundball, mediated by a perfectly normal strikeout rate for such a sinker-heavy starter. But this guy, injuries and all, turned out to be the best pitcher in an otherwise-terrible Padres rotation thanks to his regular use of five different pitches. The 29-year-old’s unexpected renaissance campaign has gone relatively unnoticed in San Diego. Over 11 starts, Cahill averaged nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings while posting an xERA that ranks 11th out of 171 pitchers with 60-plus innings. Fortunately for us, he’s gotten a bit unlucky and he comes to Kansas City underpriced. Cahill owns a .329 BABIP, which is nearly 40 points higher than his career mark. It may seem counterintuitive to upgrade a starting pitcher leaving San Diego, but Cahill should benefit from the Royals' stellar defense. The underlying metrics suggest that he’s vastly outperformed his surface statistics and is due for a rebound. Cahill’s fortunes should improve in Kansas City and now there’s a legitimate buying opportunity here. Pencil us in for that.
MIAMI -1½ +146 over Cincinnati
The Reds have two victories in 15 games since the All-Star break. They scored three in the first inning last night and didn’t score again until a meaningless run crossed the plate in the ninth when they were down 7-3. Now the Reds will take the field with Tim Adleman pitching. Cinci has lost seven of Adleman’s last nine starts. Over that stretch the opposition has scored six or more times in six of those seven losses. Adleman has five wins in 18 starts to go along with a 5.11/5.61 ERA/xERA split. This former Indy leaguer already exceeded expectations by cracking the majors. Too many pitches out of the strike zone, a fly-ball tilt (46% FB’s -35% grounders) a 90-mph fastball and no pedigree all conspire against Adleman and now he’s pitching for the coldest team in the league. His overall 1.38 xERA has been rising and is at 1.52 since the beginning of June. Adleman has allowed a HR in 11-straight games started.
Adam Conley is a lefty. That, too, works against the Reds because they are 6-20 against southpaws this year, which is by far the worst record in the majors against lefties. In two starts back since being demoted in May, Conley has walked just two batters in 13 innings while striking out eight. His 51%/15%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile stands out in this small sample size. Conley had to endure almost three months of harsh pitching conditions in the PCL league. That may have served him well, as he’s been a different pitcher since his return by keeping hitters completely off balance with an assortment of different speeds and pitches. With a 15%+ swing and miss rate on both his changeup and slider, Conley has the soft stuff to stick in the rotation and in this spot against the Reds, there's some nice profit up for grabs here.
SAN DIEGO +102 over Pittsburgh
Ivan Nova has made tangible improvements in his time with Pittsburgh. His curveball command has improved thanks to a more consistent (and lower) release point and he's attacking the zone more often early in the count. Both changes give legs to Nova's surface gains, as he won't be prone to the wild ERA swings we saw earlier in his career with the Yankees. That said, it’s hard to see further growth from here. Nova's historically-low control has nowhere to go but up. His plus groundball % should soften the fall but unless Nova opts to use more secondary offerings—which isn't a priority given his strike-heavy, fastball approach—we’re not likely to see much improvement in his subpar strikeout rate (78 K’s in 132 frames). So, while things are clicking for the new-look Ivan Nova, bettors riding his good year would be wise to ease up because this ace-level wave has probably hit its crest.
Dinelson Lamet owns a 4.30 ERA and 50/0% dominant start/disaster start split over four games started at home thus far, and presents a massive amount of upside for this start based on his 15% swing and miss rate and 11.8 K’s/9. The Pirates offense ranks 24th in OBA (On Base Average) against RHP for the season with a .309 mark and what we have here is a false favorite based on market recognition and perception. The Padres have been so live at home all season long, they took the opener last night and can surely keep it going here.
Pass CFL
Rocketman
Chicago at Milwaukee
Play: Chicago -1½
The Chicago Cubs travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers on Saturday night. Milwaukee won a close one last night 2-1 over the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs are 54-48 SU overall this year while Milwaukee comes in with a 55-50 SU overall record on the season. Kyle Hendricks is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA overall this year and 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA on the road this season. Junior Guerra is 1-4 with a 5.22 ERA overall this year, 0-1 with a 4.25 ERA at home this season and 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA his last 3 starts. Hendricks is 6-3 with a 2.80 ERA in his 12 career starts vs Milwaukee. Chicago Cubs are allowing only 2.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Milwaukee is allowing 6.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Chicago Cubs are 65-26 last 3 years as a road favorite of -125 to -175.
Stephen Nover
Rays at Yankees
Play: Rays
It's good value to take a price on the Rays in a pitching matchup of youngsters Blake Snell versus Caleb Smith.
Snell has pitched better than his 0-6 record shows. Snell held Baltimore to one run in seven innings during his last start this past Monday. He has a 2.38 career ERA in five games against the Yankees.
The lefthanded Smith has a 8.10 ERA. This will be his second big league start. He allowed four runs on five hits and one walk in 3 2/3 innings during his debut against the Mariners at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field this past Sunday.
The Rays have won five of the last seven times they've gone against a southpaw starter.
Power Sports
Cubs at Brewers
Pick: Cubs -173
As was expected, the Cubs have surged past the Brewers here in the 2nd half, currently leading the NL Central by one-half game. That lead was 1.5 games entering last night, but the World Series Champs lost here at Miller Park, 2-1. It was a game that featured only NINE hits as Milwaukee starter Brent Suter stunned what had been a red-hot Cubs lineup, holding them w/o run for seven innings. One could argue that expectations have the Cubs overvalued in this series, but for Saturday, the starting pitching matchup is strongly in their favor, making them worthy of a recommendation.
Kyle Hendricks is the starter for Chicago. You could argue that he was fortunate to have gotten away w/ allowing just one run in 4 2/3 IP his last time out as he also gave up eight hits. The Cubs actually lost the game, as big -260 ML favorites, to the White Sox. But that also marked Hendricks' return to the rotation after a long stint on the DL. It's pretty common to see a pitcher struggle in his first start back, but I'll project significant improvement here. It's not exactly like the Brewers have been hitting the cover off the baseball lately (.224 BA L7 games). Hendricks has a 2.52 ERA in six career starts here at Miller Park.
Junior Guerra gets the baseball for Milwaukee, hoping to improve a 5.22 ERA and 1.534 WHIP. It's unlikely that he will though. Guerra has failed to make it past the fourth inning in four of his last five starts and all four times have come against sub-.500 foes, including Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Look for the Cubs to regain the momentum that was temporarily lost last night.
3G Sports
Pittsburgh vs. San Diego
Play: Pittsburgh -115
The Pittsburgh Pirates have now dropped 3 straight and I look for them to bounce back at Petco Park on Saturday night. I like them behind Ivan Nova as the Pirates are finally healthy, and the return of Starling Marte from the suspension list has jump-started the offense a bit. This is a good price to back the Pirates as they only had 3 hits last night and the offense should bounce back with a win.
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie is the Giants and Dodgers to play Over the posted total at Dodger Stadium.
Last night's series opener saw a combined 10 runs scored, as the Over cashed in once again on the Giants side.
San Francisco enters play today with an 11-3-2 Over run brewing in their last 17 games played.
It will by Ty Blach and Rich Hill taking the ball this afternoon, and while both are having fine years, it is hard to look for an Under based on that 11-3-2 Over mark the Giants tote into play today.
Blach just allowed 5 runs in his last start against the Padres, and if he is in that price range once again, this one will be Over the total come the 6th inning of play today.
Los Angeles scored 6 runs in all 3 games at home versus the Twins in their last series, and they scored 6 more last night against the Giants. The Over stands at 3-1 in those last 4 Dodgers games played.
Play it Over on Saturday afternoon.
3* SAN FRANCISCO-L.A. DODGERS OVER