Jack Brayman
Play the Texas Rangers as an underdog against the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
Though Texas is having a mediocre season, right now, Baltimore is having a worse one. The O's have lost three in a row, and are a horrific 18-33 on the road after losing 8-2 to the Rangers last night.
Texas is 27-22 at home, and is on the brink of pulling to .500 in the standings. The Rangers (50-52) are far back of the frontrunning Houston Astros - 18 games behind - but they're just 4 1/2 games behind in the wild card race.
Take the Rangers here.
1* RANGERS
Carmine Bianco
Seattle at Los Angeles
Play: Under 3
Saturday night's Free Play is the Under 3 as the Sounders head to LA to face the Galaxy and a LA side that unbelievably have the worst home record in the MLS this season at 1-6-3. The Galaxy made a managerial change midweek and former Seattle Manager Schmid will take over and the first matter of business was changing the Galaxy formation with an eye at stopping a leaking defense that has allowed 37 goals this year (only 39 all of last season) He was instrumental in strengthening a Seattle defensive scheme and will look to do the same here. The Sounders come in having won 3 straight and unbeaten in 5 but are likely to find a Galaxy side set on stopping them defensively tonight.
The Prez
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Play: San Diego +100
Pittsburgh at San Diego is the final Major League Baseball offering from Saturday's Vegas and Offshore betting boards. First pitch is slated for 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park with the Pirates sending Ivan Nova (10-7, 3.62 ERA) to the hill to oppose Padres Dinelson Lamet (4-4, 5.92).
Nova allowed a season high seven runs and nine hits over five innings in a 13-3 loss to the Colorado Rockies this past Sunday. Lamet's last turn, this past Saturday, saw the young righty allow just two runs and eight hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-2 win over division foe San Francisco.
Nova last outing, a loss to the Rockies, was only the second time the right-hander had not completed six innings in a start. Nova's 3.62 ERA/4.30 xFIP suggests that continued regression is in order for the Bucs' starter. Nova's lack of command (4.5-plus K/9) is the Achilles to his turns against teams that have a high strike out per nine innings percentage. Even the aggressive nature of the Padres' lineup will be looking to force Nova to attack the strike zone, something that has not been an area that has created a high SwStike percentage for the veteran. Nova is creating a mere 4% whiff rate this season inside of the K-zone.
Rookie righty, Lamet, is off a solid start, 6 2/3 innings versus the San Francisco Giants at AT&T park in an event he held the G-Men to just two runs. The Padres' righty has long-term upside and at this point in his young career he is either very good or very bad on any given night. There are some trends that allow the right-hander to be somewhat predictable.
The Bucs have struggled this season against starting pitchers that have a 9-plus K rate per nine innings and this fits Lamet (12.07 K/9) to a tee. Lamet's 5.92 ERA is a mirage and positive regression is in order tonight versus Pittsburgh's lineup.
Look for Lamet to pitch closer to his xFIP of 4.01 than his traditional ERA figure so far in 2017.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Washington Nationals.
They have won two in a row, and seven of 10. They defeated the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday, 15-2. Lots of home runs. Now the Nats welcome the struggling Colorado Rockies to town after last night's rainout.
The Rockies have lost three in a row. They just got hammered in St. Louis on Wednesday, 10-5. They've lost 19 of 30 since June 21.
Take Washington
5* NATIONALS